A small aside

Incidently, I also intend to share with you what I I hope and expect to be a very unique creation, my own custom-made poker table, courtesy of Crummer Poker Tables and my wallet...including a hyperlink, of course.

No tells here. You will have to wait.

Been a long time been a long lonely lonely lonely.....time

[In an interesting twist of Poker Karma, I got 6 paragraphs into this long overdue, overly long blog only to have an errant key stroke wipe out the whole text. Undeterred, I start again...I intend to save religiously the second time around]

The Poker Monster, after 5 months of "wandering the desert" feeding on sng's and $1 turbo rebuys while riding out a huge bad beat streak, has emerged reborn with new insights and a fresh perspective to go with a new level of his game. It took a MOTHER of ALL BAD BEATS to find this higher plane of poker consciousness. Like all good karmic philosophers, allow me to take a VERY LONG TIME to make my point.

Along the way we'll talk some poker. Final table and key bubble poker, especially about traps and big draws from and against the blinds.

The Poker monster hit some hard times since winning $8500.00 on an online freeroll and his satellite into a major tournament. Sinus surgery, minor but painful, undermined my play during a $1,800.00 game with 500 entries. A final table split agreement with 4 people left on the Monday $60 Casino game gave me a certain $1400.00 over a good shot at $2000 over a tired field, but began a 3 month bad beat streak which turned into a frustration streak which EVENTUALLY turned my focus back to playing as well as I could, only to LEAD UP to the ULTIMATE FINAL TABLE BAD BEAT which, as my "rock bottom", in fact caused a whole new perspective and insight into that enigmatic ghost in the probability machine I, as an ignorant mortal, have occasionally alluded to as "poker karma".

I am now through the looking glass, people. But I get ahead of myself. First let me speak of the results of my rebirth, and then of my path to poker enlightenment.

Since the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, I have played possibly my best poker. I made sick calls and huge laydowns to make my way to the final 4 of the Monday $60 Casino game, and then INSISTED we not chop the pot. Because I was fresh, alert, and in the zone. I had made a call with QJ of hearts to bust a short stack with 88 to make it there. I had folded AJ sooted to a 4x under-the-gun bet, because I looked up after reaching for the 1200 chips, only to see the raiser bristling in anticipation of action as only a big hand does, and laying down to find the raiser's AK up against a short stack with AA. Because I was still playing with my head up and my mind fresh, while others were worried about work the next day and their bedtimes.

And LO, UNTO ME was a raise all in and immediate reraise all in after I opened 4 handed with 88. And I PAUSED, because one of my opponents had a preflop monster, and FOLDED TO SEE the 8 on the flop and A7 in terrible against KK. But I was content with my solid laydown, because, LO, I KNOW when some Joe holds two cowboys, and I had barely committed 5% of a huge stack to see 60% at risk for a three way pot. BECAUSE the ZONE belonged to the MONSTER and to no one else.

Had I called, I knock 2 people out and have a 10 to 1 advantage against the remaining short stack. BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I will be patient, and watch our new chip leader stumble with his chips and keep the short stack in only to fall to KK himself overplaying 67 and flopping 722.

AND LO, THINE SHORT STACK opponent now was leader heads up. And LO, I hear again those sick, sick words of the weary: "LET US CHOP THIS POT and together DWELL in the land of Milk and Honey".

BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I refuse his entreaties. I intend to get Biblical here.

Our weary opponent makes his first stumbling attempting to raise too much. He has announced his raise from the sb/button, but has failed to complete his raise, adding his announcement to the SB of 4k only. He fumbles and drop chips completing the bet after his error is drawn to his attention by the dealer.

SOME of you UNENLIGHTENED may put our stumble on a hand, the nervousness of holding a monster, but THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. We have played the final table for an hour now. I have observed every play he has made. I observe all of this before I look to my hand and see AJ, and move all in instinctively, confidently.

And he tells me what the gut already knew. He was making a move with junk.

The tide has turned. I have won 90% of my races at the final. AJ beat 99 calling all in with two even stacks. Sick call, J on the window. 55 calls to beat a short stack AK. Our prior big stack called with 66 and I needed to steal or double with K10. 10 on the window holds through.

That reraise all-in sealed my momentum, and I pushed my opponent around preflop and post flop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not, until I had him exhausted and his chips at 50% of mine.

AND LO, UNTO ME LAY TWO THIN DUCKS, MEATLESS, BONY, BUT LARGE AS LIFE.
ALL IN I DECLARE, BUT ONLY PUT THE CHIPS TO COMPLETE THE BLIND
MY WEARY OPPONENT, UNAWARE, ANNOUNCES RAISE...
I'M ALREADY ALL IN, I TELL HIM, AND HE CALLS
THE RESIGNATION IS THERE, EVEN AS HE TURNS OVER AQ

AND MY DUCKS SURVIVE 4 SPADES TO RIVER A STRAIGHT.

Why all in with 22? Because, children, because the ghost in the machine had whispered in my ear...

I will parlay my 1900 into outplaying 76 people to earn one of 4 seats in a $220.00 satellite for entry into the $1000.00 and $3000.00 buy-in main events of the major CPT event being hosted by my local casino in a week. And earning it sick and dirty. Surviving an early bad beat (A10 check raising all in into my AQ on an A high flop and turning a 10) to have to race 33 against AJ and 10 10 against AQ to finally get a chip stack with a comfort zone, then out playing a loose aggressive "young gun" who liked to back talk reraising him all in with 88, outplaying another with 88 and a Q J 9 flop, and raising the same "young gun" with A4 (that's right. Ace-four. Off suit) when he cut off raised with J9 spades and was "pot committed" to the call (see earlier blogs, Mr. Young Gun, about pushing short stacks in the blinds). A4 held up, and this kid was just incredulous when I told him I knew I was ahead (BUT NOT HOW I KNEW) just as I had talked him out of calling my 88 earlier by telling him I put him at 30% to win when he tried to talk me into information.

I am a very polite live player, but if someone wants to back-talk and trash talk me, I am happy to play back.

Young gun will bust in 6th. I will burst the bubble making an instacall with AJ clubs against the short stack's push with A3 hearts and seeing the J on the window.

I will follow up online the next day putting $20 into a field of 400 and coming home with $775 after spending the first 90 minutes of the game trapped with no more than my starting stack.

THE "ZONE" IS DEFINED SIMPLY: IT IS THE SUM OF THREE THINGS

(a) I HAVE A COMPLETE FEEL FOR MY OPPONENTS AND THE WAY THEY PLAY
+
(b) I HAVE THE PATIENCE TO BE OBSERVANT BEFORE MAKING ANY COMMITMENTS
+
(c) I HAVE A KARMIC SENSE OF DESTINY OVER THE TWO CARDS I HOLD

often, (c) really is a function of (a) and (b) It was to burst the bubble in the satellite. Sometimes, the equation in a race situation is more like this:

(c) = ((a)squared + (b) squared)/ G
where G is what the Ghost in the Machine has whispered into my ear.

On that fateful Monday, the Ghost told me to fold 88, even though an 8 was coming. I then won clean through superior play rather than through pure luck, providing me with the additional confidence to play sick and strong to win my buy-in for the biggest two events I have ever had the privilege to play. My fold was justified by my read of my players, in spite of my lucky flop, just as my fold with AJ earlier in the tournament in considering an opening raise of 1200, because I stopped to play with my chips, and look up to see the look of the raiser in anticipating my action, and then folding to see his AK fall to AA. Both laydowns confirmed I was in THE ZONE, which can be far more important than winning the pot.

I know no path to this enlightenment, other than the truly random path the Ghost may choose for you. I will tell of my path soon.

Let me talk some hands first. I just went to a seminar highlighted by lectures by Annie Duke, Phil Hellmuth, and a few also-rans. Interestingly enough, Annie Duke's math-based lesson was in many ways identical to my earlier blogs, including all the reasons why suited connectors are, mathematically, unplayable. Her example was 78 sooted. I have ranted similarly about 10 J sooted and off, but I will continue to play 78 sooted, simply because it is often good on a 7 high or 8 high flop, which often has straight outs to go with your top pair in situations where people in the pot are playing hands above this flop like, for example, J10 and JQ. J10 never hits top pair without being outkicked by a hand in the pot.

Annie Duke's poker strategy is based on very sophisticated math which is far in advance of the "basics" found in, say, Phil Gordon's teachings. In fact, when asked of good poker books, Annie and Phil commented on many, including Slancky and Harrington, but never breathed the word "Gordon". Phil Gordon was only mentioned for sucking out on Phil Hellmuth's AA with 99 in the only WSOP final table Mr. Gordon ever made. ENOUGH SAID? Annie will have a new book out soon, 500 pages on post flop play. I will read it, and can recommend it blind on the strength of her lecture today. Very simply, her math message is pretty identical to mine. Where she and I may disagree is that I will play looser in an early game with chips I feel comfortable speculating with in a hope of catching that huge double-up opportunity ("scary play") vs Annie's more conservative formula based on raises, steals, and made hands("tight play"). She has some excellent comments on table image. Very sophisticated analysis. I will look forward to comparing her 500 pages of notes.

Okay, math, odds, putting a guy on a hand...

Lets talk about playing flush draws at critical times in tournaments.

Example one:

[Pay attention kids, because this is the same final table and the same player who delivered me the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT...I've had AAAA cracked, but this is worse]

Final table, $100.00 Casino Wednesday game, I have played excellent to get there, have an average stack of 30k in chips, blinds are 800/1600, two short stacks are already gone, but we have only played 5 hands. I am first to act in the middle with AJ clubs and I raise to 4000. This is the first hand I've played, and 5 players at the table are unfamiliar to me, including the 30 something oriental woman in the BB, who makes the call.

Every time I am at a new table, I try to be very observant in order get a feel for my opponents, and this is now exception. I am watching her eyes through my sunglasses as the flop comes down. I am not looking at the flop, only her reaction to it.

I see disappointment. Clear and obvious disappointment.

I look at the flop. It is 5 high two clubs.

Seeing the flop and her disappointment, I really can think of no better option here.

All in.

She folds.

I show.

Why all in? Aren't I bluffing for my tournament life here?
No, not at all. I am, in fact protecting the best hand. 5 high is of course, 5 4 2. Because it is clear her hand needed a flop, I clearly have a huge number of outs. A, J, 3 for a straight, any club for nut flush. 17 outs is, roughly, (without dead-out counting) 61% ahead of even 10 10 here, and 10 10 loves that flop, not hates it.

Even if I assume I was dominated preflop by QQ or AK, I still have 14 outs, which is even money (50.4%, but my read post-flop confirmed my impression preflop that she was simply defending the BB. It is more likely, then, that I also had the best hand preflop, perhaps dominating. For her to continue here, she is gambling with probably 4 or 5 outs, assuming she has two live overs like Q 10. She gets 5 if she has a club, and I have to take one away. Her best two live/one club scenario forces her to pick up some life at 18% with two to go, while a full 13 of MY outs which will hit 47% of the time and CRUSH her caught Q and 16 of MY outs crush her caught 10 58% of the time.

The last thing I want, however, is a Q or 10 of hearts on a turn card I gave up for cheap, giving my opponent the confidence of top pair and dropping chances of winning in half. I have the best hand because it has dominating POTENTIAL against an opponent who has completely whiffed. If I price someone in for a turn card, with say, a 6000 bet into the 11,000 pot (remember the sb and antes) I gave up control of the hand and possibly a pot. I did not need to play this hand for a big pot, and I cannot trap an opponent with mere potential because shit happens.

So why show?

It is early in the final table. I want to demonstrate a few things which will benefit me in the long run:

(a) I am telling the field that I am going to play the final table aggressive, fearless, and to win;
(b) Less sophisticated players will think I am merely loose-aggressive and think they can play me for double ups, while sophisticated players who paid attention to the flop will understand the math as well as I and perhaps clue in that I also do, giving me action where I want it and respect where I need it: The former sees my move as semi-bluff (Phil Gordon on his good days, or a novice read of Doyle Brunson's Supersystem), the latter as a strong play with a strong hand from someone who understands the whole math of the hand. (Annie Duke)
(c) I will play this opponent again, have a good read on her, I have put her in the former category, and want to set up a trapping opportunity for later (I will eat these words!!!!!!.......wait for it)


[How bizarre...blogger.com is now autosaving like a hot damn]

Okay, here's an example of a similar nature from the seminar:

This is Shawn Rice, whom I consider to be a middling pro. He is an official Ultimate Bet pro, so he is also a guest speaker [Is this a clue to Poker Monster's secret online identity?] His lecture focuses on playing weak $1/2 cash NLHE tables online to maintain your bank roll. He will play a hand where both he and his opponent make big mistakes. These mistakes will not only tell you how to beat Shawn Rice by playing weak at cash tables, but also illustrate the steps I discussed above which both players missed to make mutual mistakes.

Here's the hand.

SR is in the cutoff with QK diamonds and raises to $7 into the blinds, and the BB calls. The BB only has $80 to SR's $200.00 The flop is identical as my example, 5 4 2 diamonds, and Shawn's reasoning is identical: two overs and a flush draw. However he is missing a few pieces of the puzzle, and his draw is not as strong either: there is no git shot straight and he doesn't KNOW he has two overs, or at least live cards, on his opponent. ITS A CASH GAME. PEOPLE DEFEND THEIR CHEAP ASS BLINDS. PEOPLE ALSO CAN HAVE BIG HANDS IN THE BLINDS AND PLAY WELL FROM THEM.

Shawn has no read at all from his opponent. The BB bets weak, $8, and, IN SPITE OF AN EARLIER EXAMPLE WHERE HE TRAPPED WITH A SET OF EIGHTS BY THE SAME OPENING BET INTO THE SAME POT IN THE SAME POSITION(which I will discuss later), SR puts that weak bet as weakness and BETS THE POT (and simply by pressing the bet pot button, which is lazy and stupid. It says to an online opponent that I am lazy, thoughtless, and aggressive, often meaning a bluff or semi-bluff) This bet is big. $31. IN SPITE OF THE BET COMMITTING THE BB TO 1/2 HIS STACK, BB JUST CALLS.

And SR still has NO READ when the 7 spades hits the turn. To a BB check, SR BETS THE POT and GETS CALLED. Rice got no information AT ALL from the called over-raise.

QK and QQ now show down and a King sucks SR out on the river. UGLY.

The BB was trapping a player who, by his own admission, continue bets every raise he makes. Was that a good play, in spite of the suckout? NO.

Why not?

Well, you spend an hour with SR at a cash table, and you find that he raises, but he is not reckless. There is usually a "raisable" hand behind him whether he hit or missed. Maybe he bets to much but he could very well have a hand that could beat QQ eventually.

It is fine to exploit his aggressive nature, but you must to it safely. QQ is good on that flop, but consider the range of hands SR may have made the raise with. QK is out there, but so are MANY A-x combinations, including A-x sooted.

Not even considering the flush draw, A-x on that flop has, effectively, TWO OVERS ON QQ: any 3 and any A. This is MORE dangerous than AK with two to go, because there are four 3's as opposed to three K's to draw from. Would you trap with QQ if you know your opponent has AK? Hell no. Odds to hell, we have ALL SUFFERED the overplayed AK catch up to QQ on turn and river. 21.6% to DISASTER IN A BIG POT. If you give him 25% to hold the two diamonds as well, throw in another 8% or so to disaster, JUST BY ANALYZING HIS LIKELY RANGE OF HANDS as opposed to a more accurate read. A more accurate read understands that odds are even here. With only a coinflip odds, who do you want to have to make that coin flip decision? You, or him? Bet for strength, and he does. Trap for value, and you have already decided you are the gambler.

QQ got greedy here. I liked the small post flop bet. But when the response is a lazy BET POT button click, WHY IN HELL against a real player would you give him a free card with a smooth call? and then guarantee him a river by check calling the turn? $40.00 profit out of this is plenty, when you can reraise all in for $40.00 more and force SR into a decision. If you have $100 more to reraise with, it is a MUCH TOUGHER decision.

You simply cannot get greedy like this without THE NUTS. If this was a short-stacked final table scenario, the temptation to trap might be much greater, but it shouldn't be. When you are offered a guaranteed pot post-flop because you have a strong hand and a good read, this pot offers you a 50% increase on your stack WITHOUT RISKING ANY CHIPS by simply slamming the door shut post-flop and post-raise. You will need those chips waiting for another opportunity.

In other words, QQ here is really identical to my AJ clubs on the same flop for actual strength. I will trap on occasion here, but only against opponents I can bust while affording to lose against them all in, and that is still no excuse for not putting my opponent on a hand or likely hand to the best of my ability and acting accordingly.

If the BB here sets up his pre- or post-flop bet up to an amount set up to give SR some folding odds, such as a small raise preflop which induces a "pot odds" call (total bet $15 maybe), or, better, check raises the flop, because lazy Shawn will click the BET POT button into a $15 pot, making a check-raise of $65.00 into $30 pot not only signal your opponent to a trap, which you want, while making a call with his flush draw marginal. Its a cash table, so you can always rebuy when Shawn sucks out (he was only 25% on the turn), but this trap can only be made in a critical time in a tournament when you can put your opponent on a complete bluff, which usually only occurs when the raising and call make a short stack pot committed preflop. Against a good player with decent stack, you have guaranteed your opponent will be looking for his outs with 2 to go.

Okay, trapping in the blinds, after catching a set: first, Shawn Rice's example:

Again this is cash and on-line, and SR smooth calls a button raise to $10 with 88 from the SB. Both players have $200 or more chips. The flop is AK8 two clubs, but in a heads up situation I am happy for the A and don't care about the flush draw, and so is SR.

SR will bet $8 and sees a lazy pot bet to $46.00. He will act just like the QQ and smooth call to see a J or spades, making two clubs and two spades.

SR has made an excellent read here. This was just a button raise, and the guy is continuing, trying to represent an Ace. Shawn just checks, and a HUGE pot bet (don't to this folks. Size your bets PERIOD so that it looks like there is thought to them) of $120.00 is the result, leading to SR raising all in to about $160, and, amazingly, a Q3 hearts bluff with a gutshot to the river calls and misses for a big cash double up.

NOBODY IS THAT STUPID OR RECKLESS LATE IN A TOURNEY. $1/2 cash NLHE (both live and online) appears to be a weak game full of rookies with the same gambling instincts as those who play $5-50 hands of blackjack. They are fish who play at that level because $3.50 pots offer no thrills. I hate these tables. You and Shawn can have them. I play cash PLOmaha and Limit Omaha 8/b, and I play them for practice against good players who understand these games.

A much better example came from Phil Hellmuth, who brought in a clip from the WSOP 2006 final table, a hand between Jamie Gold and Allan Cunningham. It is on YouTube and it was very instructive.

Cunningham is a very shrewd and observant player, and Jamie Gold a lucky amateur. Phil's example was how Jamie Gold butchered the set trap.

AC has A10 and opens for $900,000 against I believe $100/200k blinds. JG has a 5 to 1 chip lead on AC's 20ish million chips, but flat calls with 88. The flop is ideal, A-8-6 rainbow, and JG has position. There were 3 callers, leaving about $3 million in the pot, and AC, given his relatively weak A for the initial price he laid and his position, makes a conservative bet, $1m. JG just calls but he does so very quickly.

Phil did not comment so much on this play, so I will. Anyone who followed the 2006 WSOP knows that Gold talked too much and revealed way too much, and tended to bet a lot. Gold is very quiet and calls very quickly, actions completely out of character. There is no deliberation. There is no likely draw on the board, only a 7 -9 or 5 -7 straight draw, and while JG can play these hands in raised pots and does with his monster stack, the lack of hesitation in the flat call is inconsistent with the draw. That ace on board in a raised pot will limit any undercard straight draw to the turn. Any good player with the A will smell the draw and shot down the hand if the turn is favourable. Sure, a big stack can call $1m into $5m with 15% to hit the turn, but the quick call is fishy.

You can see that AC smells the fish too. He checks the 2 on the turn, and JG quickly checks back.

Phil was VERY critical of this play, and this might have been the most informative comment we got from him. Phil has seen this play as a tell indicative of a huge trap many times, and he was watching this happen live, so i doubt Phil is bluffing about his read. Phil indicated that the quick check indicates that Gold has already decided to check trap or call trap the turn card, and does not have enough guile in him to disguise it.


[But incidently, I tricked a very good player into PAYING OFF my flush when I had initially raised with A clubs Q, saw a low flop with three clubs, and BET the flop (continuation) GOT TWO CALLERS (like one had a good club) and then CHECKED the club which hit the turn. Then this very good player OVERBET 1500 (potsize) the river giving me only 700 more to go all in, and forcing a pot odds call. I call his bet an overbet because one typically value bets a checked flush, but, as a clever player, he was trying to be misleading. As a cleverer player, I had misdirected my draw by betting the flop and checking the nuts on the turn, to convince another club he was good. Had he bet smaller, I am not sure what my river play would have been, but probably a value raise if I was convinced he was convinced his flush was good.]

Back to Gold and Cunningham.

Cunningham is clearly uncertain about the strength of his hand when the river pairs the 6. The read I put on him here is that he will pay off a value bet, but no more. He bets out a weak $2m bet into a $6m pot.

And JG, who's brain is too actively connected to his mouth, just butchers this opportunity. NOW Gold talks, and he immediately goes all in and prepares to flip his cards on an assumed call. His adrenaline has betrayed him. He just simply lost his cool in this opportunity to knock out the best pro left against him. He says "I knew you didn't have it".

Cunningham folds immediately.

If your goal was to extract 25% of someone's short stack with a huge hand, play this like Jamie. If you want to get ALL OF SOMEONE'S CHIPS AND DOUBLE THROUGH after flopping huge, play like this:

[CAUTION: THE BELOW PORTION OF THIS BLOG ENTRY CONTAINS A GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF THE PHYSICAL CARNAGE OF THE ULTIMATE BAD BEAT. ANYONE WITH THE FLU, ON HEART MEDICATION, OR PREGNANT SHOULD READ AT THEIR OWN PERIL OF VOMIT, HEART ATTACK, MISCARRIAGE, OR GIVING BIRTH TO THE SON OF SATAN. THIS IS A TRAIN WRECK, FOLLOWED BY A CHEMICAL SPILL, FOLLOWED BY CHERNOBYL, AN EARTHQUAKE, AND GODZILLA AND RODAN BUSTING UP YOUR CONDO]

Back to the final table of the $100.00 Wednesday casino game where I "overplayed" my AJ clubs. We are now 7 handed, and our oriental female mark and I have nearly identical stacks of around 40k. Blinds remain 800/1600. I am in the SB.

Little Miss Mark (LMM) is in the cut off, the table is tight so far, and she makes a small raise to 4000. Pretty standard play, and this bet has been enough for the blinds to fold at this tight early final. Play folds to me and I see 77. This is a very good situation to see a flop. 77 is a solid starting hand heads up, my opponent is an open book, and my price is excellent. The BB also thinks so, and makes the pot-odds call (and why not, 2400 into 10000 will make any two cards look good).

The flop is perfect A 7 3 two clubs. I am not remotely concerned with the flush draw, and I have semi-instinctively put LMM on an Ace. While many would bet here small or large, I do not wish to represent the strength representing the most typical call, a decent Ace, because I put my LMM as a very unsophisticated player, and the last thing I want is my mark worried about her kicker.

I play this for what a Phil-Gordon style player will expect: I called to defend my blind, I hate the Ace. I check because it is expected I will check to the raise and the ace. The BB also checks, and LMM makes what would be, if she had the best hand, a good bet, 8000 into the 12000 out there.

Except for one problem. I was anticipating this. She has an Ace, 12000 invested, 20k in the pot, about 30k left, and believes she has what she wants.

I check raise another 10k, putting the put up to 38,000 when she has 30k left. She DOES NOT HESITATE when she reraises and I quickly move in. My reraise was calculated to create an irresistably huge pot against a very simple-minded player who simply did not have the experience or capacity to understand the usual flags of the check-raise.

(see what you can get done without seeing another street which might kill the action, such as another club?).

We are now both all in with me a 98.4% favourite.

That's right. 98.4%. As in LOCKED UP. I have now both doubled up to the chip lead while serving notice to the table that I am truly the POKER MONSTER.

turn is an 8
river....

an 8

RUNNER RUNNER GODDAMN 88. She had 5 outs and needed both of them. an A and an 8, or AA would also do. but I checked the odds out later on the computer.

I AM SICK

LITERALLY SICK.

QUEASY.

DIZZY.

I AM CLOSE TO PUKING.

I KNEW THIS TABLE WAS RIPE FOR THE PICKING AND INSTEAD OF RUNNING OVER THE TABLE I AM GETTING $360.00 FOR PLAYING PERFECT.

SICK SICK SICK

GOOD THING I AM NEITHER FLU-INFECTED, PACE-MAKER-EQUIPPED, OR PREGNANT.

What makes this the ultimate bad beat over when my AAAA got cracked by a royal flush, for example, is not the odds. It is the situation. When my AAAA got cracked, there was a flush made on the turn to my slowplayed set of A's (8 kicker) and I though I had lucked out with the river quads. It was not a critical point in a live tourney, it was online for a $20 buy in in the middle rounds where I could just find the next available game.

What begins as sickness slow turns to anger. Serious anger, made stronger when I did check the odds on the computer. 98.4% to win? That suck out was NOT MERE COINCIDENCE. IT WAS NOT COLLUSION. IT WAS THE HAND OF FATE. THERE IS NO GOD. ONLY THE EVIL HAND OF FATE, AND FATE HAS HATED ME FOR 2 MONTHS AND NOW FATE IS TRYING TO KILL ME.

FATE PAID OFF A WEAK PLAYER WHO DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILLS WITH A BIG STACK TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING AT A FINAL TABLE EXCEPT PAYING OFF BETTER PLAYERS AND DENIED ME MY DUE.

I'm joking? No, I am serious. This is my reaction. I was rewarded for brilliant play in a completely safe situation with OUTRAGEOUS MISFORTUNE.

I am in a tilt tank for 24 hours. I am talking to myself. I am shouting in my head. My faith is truly shaken. GOD MUST HATE ME PERSONALLY.

Until it finally hits me... How do you win a big tournament? You can put your chips in with AA all the time, but lets face it, I remember an online game where I had AA or KK seven times in 45 minutes and got action every time and lost 6 out of 7s. You need to put your chips in with at least coinflip odds and you have to win EVERY CRITICAL RACE whether you are forced to play A4,K 10, 33, or 10 10 for your life. THE ONLY WAY TO DO THIS is to tune in to the (a) (b) and (c) of THE ZONE and come to terms with the Ghost in the Probability Machine. Go with your reads and go with your gut. If you slowplay-limped AQ UTG where you normally raise, only to see huge action ahead of you, fold and see QQ vs AA, it's because the GHOST has WHISPERED and you LISTENED. When you announce the Royal Flush draw when QK diamonds is all in preflop against KK AND IT HITS...When your buddy can't help but declare the runner runner flush suckout against you when you had someone killed and trapped all-in on the flop, and YOU KNOW ITS COMING and IT COMES...or call the river card with 100% accuracy (all true events)....you stop having doubt. You begin to have faith. THE ZONE doesn't always tune in, but when it does, you have to play by it. Ignore it at your peril.

My faith was confirmed about 2 weeks later.

I was playing a $150.00 online tournament and was simply surviving with the short stack. I had just survived a K high all in call against A high while pot committed in the BB to a raise to have a meager 7400 in chips with 600/1200 on the way and less than 20 left. Under the gun, I pushed with A10 because I felt I had to. A stack with similar problems called and so did a tiny stack.

I was up against JJ with my A10 (the small stack hand escapes me). I was 30% with 5 to go, but my heart sunk on the flop.

J 10 3. A set to an under-pair.

The turn...an A
The river...an A

I took down a pot worth 19k, good enough for 3rd, and would take out my opponent with the next hand, effectively knocking two players out and bringing the total to 11, guaranteeing a decent situation at a final table with a top prize of about $5400.00, buy crushing top set with runner runner Aces full of 10s.

My opponent....was furious. As if I had done it to him deliberately. He threatened he would come after me if we were at the same table again. I would have said I have never encountered such anger, not the worst Phil Hellmuth suckout rant, not Devilfish's suckout rant when Phil cracked AA with 99, had I not experienced it myself. Critical time. Huge flop. Guaranteed pot I must win. Outrageous misfortune. Fade to black...

I haven't seen my victim since. Did he see the light? Did he tune into the Ghost of Poker Karma? Or has he sworn off poker forever? I somehow think this was meant to be shared...so that others can find peace with the karmic reality of 52 card infinite probability, and tune in to its more complex algorithms....

Do not think that simply reading this blog will tune you in. This is a trial by fire. You need to feel that sickness. Feel that anger. Feel the shock of reality of the order within the chaos of near infinite probabilities...and allow it in.

All of the universe has order within the randomness. Physical and mathematical laws apply to create predictable outcomes from random interactions. Clouds of interstellar dust collapse into stars and galaxies due to the operation of relativity and gravity incredibly complexly but entirely predictably. It only appears a miracle to those who cannot comprehend the math. So too, apparently, 52 random cards applied to 10 or fewer minds trying to outwit the odds and each other with whatever chance offers them as their tools.

Incidently, my suckout success was SLIGHTLY better odds than my victimization. Runner runner QK for a straight was a 0.4% possibility as well. A full 2% to catch after he flopped the overset.

THATS JUST SICK.

I look forward to blogging about the Coast to Coast $1,000.00 bounty and $3,000.00 main event at the River Rock Casino in Vancouver, Canada May 7 and 9. Until then.