Monday, July 20, 2009

Tournament size and structure: live table dynamics

Okay, internet players, live players, whoever you are, put this in a time capsule and let aliens figure out what the hell I'm talking about, there is the two fundamental differences from the internet tournament and the live tournament: hand speed and the information derived from human interaction. When I play steadily in internet form, if I'm tuned into the table I can get "tells" based on tendencies and little things like delay time to clue me in on the "oh my god my hand is huge" pause/check vs the "oh my god that flop missed me, shot round the moon and landed in the lap of my opponent" pause/check. Very subtle to tell that online. So easy in a live setting. Screw Caro's book of tells (haven't read it, I'm sure it's excellent) all I can say is you still have to pay attention an get feel for all your opponents. You're not in the hand, so what, you are watching your opponents to see how they handle situations, because you'll be playing them.

What's the point? Live play takes twice as long per hand to play, and your job, whether in the hand or out of the hand is to pay attention to that much more information. I was to steal the blinds from the guy I KNOW will only push back with a real hand, or respects my raises, and not someone who is a big wild gambler, or a huge stack who can play any two playable cards in raised pots.

And we all want to be that huge stack who can afford the hands that amount to a raise of 1/5 of the stacks of your opponents, see a flop, and force the guy to commit his chips if you hit, right? How do be get to be that guy? So we can continue to play a game of a wide variety of hands, afford some mistakes, and force or opponents to commit all their chips?

The answer lies in the early play. The blinds are cheap, you need to play a wide variety of hands in reasonable situations, call the odd raise in the right measure, etc.

If you can play your whole game when the blinds are big enough that one raised pot commits chips of others, you have a huge advantage. It is BIGGER live for this very reason: live play takes 4x the concentration level per hand of play basically. more than twice the info played at 1/2 speed.

The standard $5=20 buy in in an online game at my site is 1500 starting chips with 5/10 blinds and 12 minute intervals. A table moving at a good clip is 60 hands/ minutes, slow table might be 40 hands/minute. I like to be tripled up in an hour, and need to be doubled up. starting chips or less is a misery, so thats 3000-4500 chips at 50/100.

The $200 buy in I do on the occasional weekend at the casino has a nearly identical structure, 7500 chips starting at 25/30 levels. it is 30 minutes a level. A very fast table can sometimes get through from BB to BB 10 handed in 15 minues, but 20 or a bit longer is typical if the dealer is slow or the players play slow (and not inordinately slow, just a reasonable time to make a big decision, as opposed to bang-bang-bang). But level 6, 150 / 300 with 25 ante, is after 150 minutes, not 60. Its tiring. because its tiring, the short stacks are getting frustrated. They are bitching and complaining. You can hear them mumble, and complain, and watch them show disgust at their cards. You can't see that on line, and its not as big a factor on line. There is much less money invested, there is no math required, and I've bought into another tourney already since I will be waiting for ever to make a single move.

Fatigue and impatience (happens to me too) means they will push with AQ in a terrible situation because its the best cards they've seen for an hour (Ive done this myself after 8 hours in $1000 buy in knowing full well the player I knew well had raised with a better hand). They will fail to manage the pot with JJ and get in a pot committed situation, and put the rest of the chips in post flop with AQ3 for a board AS A CALL. GO all in with AJ from the middle and hope there is not a better hand waiting out there.

Big stacks make bigger stacks reading and exploiting these situations. You rake them in and the people around you say "the rich get richer" and wonder how its done. If my read is perfect and can afford to lose, I should win in 70% of those sitations. Last wednesday I called an all-in with 66 from the BB. everyone limped, short stack said "screw it" pushed, I had been right beside him, heard him moaning about his stack size, read the situation well. If he had two overs, the series of limps told me higher cards were taken, so a "coin flip" with AK was seriously in my favour. Turns out he had 44, and lost, and crumbled about how this always happens to him. Sound familiar. Making the sick call with 44 makes a lot more chips than the desperate all-in that it only takes a deep stack with cajones to collapse. I wasn't that deep stacked, but the situation was very good for a lower pair. I can and will do this when I have the chips and short stack moves. A pair is huge in a short-handed game, like busting #5 from the final table. THOSE are the obligatory calls, not the 3:1 because the short stack is 5000 and the BB you;re in is 1500 but you have 84 off-suit. Junk vs junk really has no business in poker all in as seen on TV. PHil Gordon Nonsense. Last wednesday, along those lines for stacks and blinds, I have A2 suited, the BB, and 30K in chips, and he pushed from middle position. He had the best hand he would see in the next three, and I had the worst ace in the deck. I'm at best two random cards vs each other, and very likely up against A6 or better. Folded instantly.

So how do you get to be a big stack in the first 6 levels so you can do this? One is play all you playable cards in playable situations. J9 in the BB against a small raise (flopped the nut straight, checked, let him catch is Q on the turn, bet 2/3 pot, watch him re-raise me: he will eventually fold AQ), suited connectors, same situation, same price flopped trips and watched the a bet and a call (flush draw, he would show) and then check raised for a good stack.

Those hands were all just good grinds worth 1500 chips here and 2500 there. Yep, you do have to hit hands or be a great bluffer, but these are times of the tourney where people can afford to fold, so be very right and bluff very very smart if you want to bluff a lot in tournaments. It can work well in tournaments, but I exploit those guys who bet too much too, to make a big stack. If I know a guy will raise me just because of position, I will bet weak to entice it, let him throw too much in, and check raise him. I rarely just call, because the next card could be the lucky stupid card that made his 33 into 333, and I want the fold more: a bluffer can't call all in.

And gamble. yesterday , $220 game, I made good grinding in first 4 levels, turned 7500 into 14000. under the gun, I have 89 hearts. I limp in. Game's deep enough that we are still seeing limped in pots, so off I go. Book SAYS this is a bad hand in early position. BOOK doesn't say all that I said about how to play well in early positions, so read away. I have chips, prospect of cheap flop is good, this is a good starting hand. Limp in.

Man beside me I know well. Played with him many times. Older guy, likes his cash games too, and can often just be too aggressive. Today he is playing a more varied game, but he likes to talk and he's not a tough read.

He raises to 700 from the limped 300. There is no action behind at all, and 400 more is a perfect price for these cards. He has also played KK craftily earlier (JJ overestimated his hand by about a million, so we all saw it) and demeanour says he has a strong hand. Its just gut. read earlier blogs for good examples of putting people on KK and AA, and AK through their demeanours. Experience is the best guide. These are amateurs who learned online like you, remember. Not pros with ice in their veins. Human beings give of heat, vibration, electricity.

The flop is insanity. J 7 5. The J and 7 are hearts. ANY 10, 6, or heart make me a huge hand. A flush draw and a gut shot are enough to go nuts over. This is the double belly buster kind. Flop looks like crap! You can't see the straight draw even though 89 is a legitimate poker hand. You might see the flush draw.

It doesn't matter what my opponent sees, he has a big hand. I slow down to try and hit this, he will hammer the pot with his chips if he clues into a draw. there is only 2059 in the pot, he has 5000+ behind. If I check, it because I am going to lay down a 15 out hand that might even be able to pair and beat AQ (6 more outs for 21. That's 2/5 of the deck and I get to see 2, not 1 card to make it)

As you know who have read before this lenghty deliberation I have discussed is about 5 seconds of thinking in reality. Sorry, 8 seconds. 3 were spent confirming I had both ends of the straight draw.

The answer was simple. Take his move away. He's 60% to call. My hand is 50% to beat JJJ here (well, 45%, but he doesn't have JJ! NOBODY raises JJ that small! See my many blogs discussing early limp and minraise traps with monsters to attract action). Gut said a big hand, but a hand in need of a great deal of protection. He wants me to hit a flop and be bigger.

He instacalls and flips KK, confirming my gut. Just a vibe man. Be there and feel it. If you never get that vibe you will be forever pushing your short stack with 44 or 77 and wondering how he called with 66 or QK, as the case may be (both in the same tournament wednesday, btw) Sisyphus and the rock. Poker hell is loving the game and never learing how to take it to the next level, never better than final 20, just making the money, etc.

two tiny black cards. I didn't hit. But I played to win, and winning his 6000 chips means that bigger stack in relation to the blinds, that much time and hands to play before the game resorts to all-ins and calls preflop only, and the chips to be able to put a guy on a small pair and call QJ thinking its good.

Just a quick comment to understand HOW 66 was a good call and why QJ may or may NOT be a good call. When there are limpers and other interested players (clearly folding hands in the margins) coming in or barely folding, they are holding suited A-rag, Q10, KJ, K10 A9, A10, sometimes AJ, especially as the price goes up. QJ not a good call if 3 people limped in and a 4th considered it. your outs got folded. CONVERSELY my 66 is that much better in that pot with interest, because it doesn't need to hit, my opponent likely does pushing his A9 to AK, QK, JK, QJ, etc. 44 is not my worry. A made pair much better than two semi-live overcards. I can call QJ because there was NO action except the late raiser, not even a whisper of hope, so paint is good to catch with all that junk in the muck. Next time you see 6 limpers in the pot, watch the flop be 8 high and then think of me.

Bedtime! until Next Time! I will try more than 6 months between blogs, I promise....to try....