Main Event $3000 part II (of....): levels 3, 4 and 5

Back to the action.

I am disappointed but not dismayed at the break ending level 2. Big John and and Trailer Mouth have some nice stacks, I am among the poor with about 11,000 chips. I am not fond of being understacked at any stage of a tournament. It seriously limits my ability to speculate with interesting cards. But I had made some terrific reads, leading to good folds (calls? I wish).

When I raised 50/100 blinds to 375 with 10 10, and Trailer Mouth called with position, I put him on AK. When the flop was K garbage rainbow, I checked, and he value bet 500, I told him "the only hand I can put you on is AK", and mucked. Out of respect for the read, he confirmed it. He also told me he didn't have a clue how I played. Perfect scenario, but Trailer Mouth would actually avoid being in pots with me the rest of the day. He knew I had his number. Fact is, I told everyone else what his number was, and he confirmed it. He would play only lucky hands where people slammed into KK.

TJr will make a valiant effort to play his way out of his 2000 chip crisis point, until he runs into Trailer Mouth's KK. Say no more. Let's speak of his replacement.

He is an older guy, maybe 50, and his stack is similar to mine. He is immediately to my left. His stack, position, and newness make him a potential threat, but I will make a few plays and observations which will prove critical. Lets call him Small Ball, as that is how he plays

I have limped in with A9 for 100. We are late in level 2 (yes, this is titled levels 3 and 4, but let me set it up first). Small Ball raises to 300.

I HATE this raise. My limp in early position, and a 3x blind raise that simply invites not only my call, but every tom, dick, and harriet (no ladies at this particular table) to see a flop too. It reeks of a semi-trap, but it still invites so many drawing hands into it. I am last of say, 5 people to call.

The flop is 10 10 9. There are so many people that a 10 is an open possibility, and I am third of 6 to act. With 2 in front checking, I really want to test my pair here. I make a "stay out of trouble" bet that I hope to be consistent with a value bet with a 10: 600 into a pot of 1800.

Small Ball raises my bet to 1500. The rest of the field told, leaving me heads up to contemplate the bet. My bet has served the purpose of identifying a trap. I invite you to always make at least a small bet into a pot like this to expose the guy who wants to trap his trips. A smooth call where there is no draw is a sure tell.

This raise is not trips. Trips can't resist the greed and fears scaring off the better, because only 99 or A10 can call or raise. In a multiway pot here, J10 can't be sure he isn't outkicked by Q 10, K 10 or A 10, all very reasonable hands in this pot.

I announce my read to Small Ball and the table. "QQ or 77 I say", several times. I take my time. "No way you have the 10" I say. Am I exposing my cards with my talk? Maybe, but I think I might talk this way in a trap too, to convince a player I am weak. Really, I want to get a tell. Eventually, I will say "I can't tell which, so I have to fold", but really I did get one. My exposition of the fact I did not hold a 10 made him very comfortable with his cards. He had the overpair, not the underpair. He will confirm it. "Somewhere in the middle," he exposes. The answer is pretty much an admission he had JJ. The only other option is 88 and he was too comfortable to be sweating it with 88.

Okay, JJ = weakass raise. Noted.

Shortly after that, Small Ball will get into trouble in a hand he limped AK in with. He will lose a smallish pot that checks down to expose the hand. It is my policy when I am playing "tricky" to put myself in a position to not have to expose a trap play, buy betting small on the river, or whatever. So now I know he wants to play big hands small and tricky.

But Small Ball is not getting what he needs playing small and tricky. He will soon be a shorter stack than I, and this is how we will sit coming into level 3.

I myself want to play some tricky poker in order to maximize the ability to win a big pot to climb back to a reasonable position. I do not like the fact that 11,500 only doubles to 23,000 and remains a modest stack.

So, in a very similar situation in early position I am first to enter the pot and I hold QQ. Even though the blinds are only 75/150, I am prepared to trap, and simply complete the 150. Then things get interesting.

Small Ball announces a raise. He has the authority in his voice of a man who has found a hand to play with. He bets....ugh 500. Blech. Can this guy get out of his small ball game?

Interesting development....Big John, who is now seeing a LOT of flops because he has a LOT of chips (at least 35,000, maybe more) is in the BB and makes the weak bet call.

I am not particularly fond of this situation. I don't want a cheap ass, three way pot holding QQ, and I know Small Ball has a hand to call a raise or reraise with (but NOT AA or KK: you know I know, and if you don't, there are about 43 blogs behind this one to explain how I know: If you still have to ask, you'll never know, but at least you tried, and I thank you for reading). So I do what is generally considered a tell, a trap exposure, a reraise, to a reasonable sum, 1500. This was a VERY USEFUL BET. Small ball JUST CALLS, confirming he does not have AA or KK, because his call involves uncertainty. He has no idea what I have. Big John, still the flop monster calling station will also JUST MAKE THE CALL. He needs to see a flop, but I think its clear to him he is now hoping to catch a huge flop to check raise these needy short stacks with. Anyway, I put Small Ball on AK, which he now needs to be best hand, because his rope is thinning. He has about 8,000 left

Fine.

Flop time.

A Q 3

WOW, except for one little problem..........

ALL SPADES.

I have flopped amazing, but I will in no goddam way give up this 4500 pot which I created and I flopped to some flishy suckout ["flish" origin: mine. definition: some "fish" who will pay any amount to chase a flush and then catches it on the river; also describes the result of a a flish hitting that river..."That goddam flish caught his flish on the goddam river:]

I IMMEDIATELY recognise this as NOT A MADE FLUSH situation. This is just experience, but let me break it down: Big John LOVES calling with pocket pairs. He will legitimately check the flop, being first to act (and we have seen how he will small bet the nuts before), and I see clear disappointment on his face: if he had 88 (reasonable here) he wanted a small, small flop, or trips. Board way to big and way too scary, and he is good enough to know that that A is a killer.

His check being a clear surrender, AK of course CANNOT be of spades! The A on the board is a spade, duh! But there is no way I am giving up this pot to Small Ball, or allowing Big John to speculate with the 8 of spades (unlikely, but if the price and read are right...). My concern is that Small Ball's holding one big spade, and will try to manage the pot size until he hits.

The response: don;t get greedy. 4500 in the pot, about 9300 left. Take this sucka down with best hand while it is still clearly the best hand. What better form of protection than a bet that only the nuts (or someone nuts) can call?

ALL IN

Dealer counts my chips out. They lay there on the felt, begging to be taken.

Then something wonderful, magical, a miracle, happens.

Three breaths later...

Small Ball can't lay his AK down here. He needs to win a pot. He has NO IDEA WHY I WENT ALL IN! HE CALLS!

"set of ladies" I announce and turn over. He looks tragically shaken. You have a spade? I ask. He doesn't. Then he does something that really, really, really warms me to this guy.

He surrenders. He musks his cards. He doesn't pray for a miracle suckout and watch for it to happen. He concedes he was outplayed and outflopped, and walks from the table.

We all know, in detail, about the ULTIMATE SUCKOUT. The runner runner OMG 1.6% that turned final table gold into done in 7th. Read all about it, and how it led to my finding poker zen. Trailer Mouth, of course, champion of the little guy that he is, advocates staying at the table to watch runner runner spades split the pot, but very much appreciate the gesture of the beaten to accept he was beaten and thus maintain dignity in the face of defeat.

(as an aside, Amy, the donkey regular who was the recipient of that bad beat, when at the table together the next week, had forgotten all about it. I imagine the rest of her final table experience was forgettable too. She bad, bad poka playa. She have bad bad, poka face. She neva find Poka Zen if Poka Buddha slap her in face. I read this in a fortune cookie)

I will sit tight with my 22000 chips. It looks better, it feels better, but I have a lot of work to do. I will wait out my next double up opportunity.

In the meantime, I will watch Big John make big mistakes in big pots. He is playing TOO MANY POTS. He is trying to outplay people, but the table is quite sophisticated. One guy, already on the short stack after, like me, having to make good fold after good fold, and holding QQ from the BB, in a marginally raised pot with a low, garbage flop checks to the original raiser a big guy named Ryan (real name), who bets value, 600, leading to a raise to 2000, and then a reraise at it turns to him of 5000. When the original raiser, a good guy also looking for a spot, after some deliberation, and very much to my surprise, goes all in, this guy in the BB really goes in the tank, puts the re-re-reraiser on KK and folds his QQ! He has only 5000 left and he folds QQ! And out or respect, our re-re-raiser exposes his KK! This is how sharp this table is. I DID NOT put the guy on KK. To his credit, he had set up his raise by raising early with weaker hands earlier in the day, and there was no tell-tale as far as I can tell.

This is like, for many of us, going from undergrad to lawschool. We are used to having it easy, then we get tossed in with a bunch of brilliant players who test our egos and our skills.

Big John cannot outplay this table. Other than Trailer Mouth, who only plays huge hands and otherwise talks incessantly (he will GET VERY VERY ANNOYING, either telling us how to play poker, telling the dealer how to deal, or discussing Canadiana with his his disinctly redneck point of view. These are not your homeys, Cracker. Learn how to be PC in public dude. And yes I did pay for that call I made on the river, asshole), Big John is a small fish in a big pond. His first HUGE MISTAKE comes when what appears to be a buddy of his arrives to fill a vacancy beside him and to his left in seat 6.

Here is a VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON. Chinese males, in pots together, insist on pissing matches. Very, very, very small penis syndrome, I think. You can't reraise me, I reraise. Very much to their detriment. Lets discuss this. It will happen alot and be very relevant to my tournament results.

Okay. Big John's Buddy (lets call him Bud) is a creative player. He likes to outplay, but he always takes his time to reason and judge. He is also loose aggressive, and you can tell these guys know each other's game.

Bud has the button, and raises. Big John has the small blind. He clearly has a hand and reads the steal, and reraises. 1200 have become 6000. Bud thinks....then makes the call. The flop is 9 8 4ish and Big John, with big hand, continue bets, but, as he does, for value. Bud will deliberate and make the call.

These guys will bet, check, checkraise, blah blah, all the way to the river. The cards never get higher than 9. There is at least 20k in the pot. Bud will not let go of this pot, and Big John is first to act.

Big John has fired 3 bullets already. I SEE CLEARLY that he has built a big pot which he has MISSED but this investment can only be taken down with a bet. IT IS REALLY OBVIOUS that he has been lured into a big pot by a big ego problem. HE NOW HAS TO BET THE RIVER big enough to be credible and small enough to save his chips.

Big John bets 6000 on the river. Bud deliberates, AND JUST CALLS. He takes his time. He figured Big John out and turns over his A8 in response to big John's sooted AQ.

A very good player, perhaps one who knows his opponent too well, can read when his small ace which has hit the flop, perhaps for 2nd or 3rd pair, is ahead against the big ace. I have done this MANY TIMES. AK is in real trouble against A5 when the flop is 10 9 5, and if A5 knows what his man has, and AK keeps firing bluffets (new term: bullets fired when you hand is actually dead), A5 can check raise all in and get paid sometimes postflop.

So Huge MISTAKE BIG JOHN! Thanks for the info, baby.

Big John still has big chips, about 40 thousand. For now.

Dinner break time. I and Ryan wind up sharing a dinner table and discuss how lucky we are in this tough field that our big hands won us big enough pots to stay ahead of this game.

Soon after the break, blinds not 150/300 no ante, I get my real opportunity. I am first to open the pot in middle position and hold gold: KK. With 5 or 6 players to act, I need value here. I can't limp this in, and risk too many in the pot, and the chip stacks are now so troubled I can expect a raise. I elect a modest raise, to 800.

It is a good thing that I played pots early, sometimes raised, and limped in the QQ. It really disquises a hand. Many players will avoid a tricksy opponent they can't read. Trailer Mouth is smart enough to know he's not my calibre of player.

Big John, however, is a bit tilty now. He has squandered, oh say, 33,000 (wow, that's a lot) and still has 40,000 to play with. He refuses to really alter his game, and insists on playing a lot of hands. He is in the big blind and will make the call.

Big John is playing a wide variety of hands. He has a good poker face except when he thinks he's in trouble. I really have no idea what he called with.

The flop is 9 clubs, 8 clubs, 4 diamonds, a good, not a great flop for KK. 89 has two pair, 99 has me killed, 88 likewise, and 10 J clubs has a MONSTER DRAW. He could have any of those hands, and I need to know.

Big John will check the flop. I need information. I make a very standard bet in this situation, a bet I like a lot.

The pot being 1700, I bet 1200. Cheap to my opponent, and pot odds for most draws. Why offer pot odds? (A) If he flopped enormous, I should pick it up from his response. He has check raised and can do it again (B) I often can put a guy on a draw by inviting the call to see the draw.

Big John just calls. There is something he likes about his hand, and I am not sure what it is. HE DOES NOT HAVE A SET OR TWO PAIR. I don't see confidence: he has a hand, but he has concerns.

What we will discover, is that he does not have a clue what I have.

The turn is fantastic. 3 of hearts. No improvement for him, and he checks.

I am NOT LETTING OUR CALLING STATION SEE A CHEAP RIVER. He has me outstacked, I feel that KK is huge NOW, I have the chips to really set him off.

I'M ALL IN

The dealer counts out my remaining chips. 21,000 chips are protecting my 2000 chip investment to win a 4200 chip pot.

Big John is comfused. I am unresponsive. "Why so much?" he thinks aloud. "why so much?" He can't figure my bet out, but he has told me something. He has something good, but something less than the nuts.

He is thinking aloud about the range of hands I could have. A set maybe. What he doesn't put into play is how I have read him. What he has represented. A big stack willing to pay to catch a big draw.

But it is clear he doesn't have a big draw, he has a big hand short of the nuts. He really doesn't want to lay his hand down. The only thing I reveal, as he deliberates out loud, is me breaking the tension by stating "well, now I know what you have [an overpair, and only one of those beats me and calls instantly]". He responds to this with some desperation about how me knowing what he has isn't really what matters right now. This, if he had been attentive enough to notice, caused me to relax a bit and enjoy the tiniest, tiniest of smiles. I think he is going to call, and I know he is beat.

He does. It took 5 minutes but he exposes JJ. The river is trash. I double through and become table captain and chip leader.

Big John, having flamed out in the middle rounds trying to parlay early round luck, will fall victim to a big pair within 30 minutes of me cracking him back down to 20,000 chips.

I now have close to 50,000 chips and I can finally, finally, finally, feel relaxed. 150/300 blinds, hour levels, I have a huge stack. I can play any game I want and this table will fear my bets. Very Very VERY good situation to be in.

Do not lament Big John. I like Big John. He, like I, will learn much from his experience in the Main Event. He is a bright guy and a good player. He will probably tilt for a month over squandering that huge, easily won stack, but he will be stronger for it and I will respect his next bet should we next joust.

I will end the night's discussion there. Part 3 will be....interesting....

The Full Monty: $3000 main event (part 1 of however many it takes)

Hey there!


Okay, I'm in a talkabout poker mood now, so lets walkabout a couple of hands.

I have VERY LITTLE to say about the $1000.00 preliminary event other than I liked the structure generally (10000 chips and 45 minute levels) and that it played more like a regular weekly in slowed down, big stack form. I played a little too conservative, and regret a few pushouts when could have trapped. Not a perfect example of Poker Monster play, but I did get the heebie jeebies out. A good warm for the main event. Lasting 7.5 hours without really having quality hands in real payoff situations is a credit to my game. It was frustrating watching people pay off the guy to my left when he got paid off early flopping quad 9s and letting 55 catch a full house at the end, then people, over and over, walking into KK KK, KK, AK, and KK which he happened to be holding when they pushed in desperation. Must be nice to have a game handed to you.

I grinded out small pot after small pot, and chipped to about 22,000 at peak on the basis of strong post-flop play, but the only race I was in was my last hand. A lack of cards/action through the last 2 hours forced my stack down to 11,500, simply an unacceptable quantify 30 minutes left into day 1 with 600/1200 blinds commencing day two. I was not greedy: I had a simple goal of 30k ending day one, enough to be able to remain patient, but I wasn't going to limp into day 2 and pray I catch AA or KK and action in the first 2.5 hours while watching my chips ante and blind off. When a player I knew well raised 3x the blind UTG I knew he had a hand: he only plays PPs or AK in that position this late in the game, but when play folds to me and I have AQ, I know I'm unlikely to see better in the next 15 minutes, and I'd rather take the day off and rest up for the main event than bother getting up the next day. I am exhausted. Playing constantly from the mediocre stack means playing for your life potentially in every pot you play. AQ good enough. QQ good enough to call. I really don't care. More luck to him.

Better luck to me in the main event.

It was a good warm up, and I take the day off completely to rest my poor dehydrated brain. As a result I am well rested with a good night sleep and a good feel for how to get through a long day of poker in what will be a slower, deeper, more serious game.

My initial plan is to get involved early. I have 15000 chips, and levels one and two are 25/50 and 50/100. I DO NOT WANT A TIGHT IMAGE. I want two things: A good feel for my opponents at the table, and and opportunity to exploit my creative skills with interesting hands while the price is right to play them. It will turn out that my game does not result in any chip improvement, but my chip investments will turn out extremely valuable in information used to make critical plays later.

Much of the table play will centre on BIG JOHN, a late 20's oversized Chinese guy who sits in seat 7: I am in seat one. In this first, absolutely critical hand, BIG JOHN is in the big blind. There has already been a limper in the pot, blinds are 25/50, and I hold K10 off suit: a marginal hand, but dirt cheap to play, so I limp in too. The guy beside me, who has a voice and look of a 40-something TJ Cloutier (TJr, if you will) also limps in. There may be another limper or two: The pot is unraised, and BIG JOHN simply checks.

The flop is K 8 3 rainbow. There is no draw at all and I have top pair. I have no feel for the other players in the pot. I have an acceptable hand in a limped in pot. It might be the best hand.

BIG JOHN makes a small bet: 150. I make a smooth call. TJr makes the call too. All others get out.

I have no idea where I stand. BIG JOHN is inscrutable. My impression is that was a top pair no kicker standard probe bet from the blinds. I cannot understand why the smooth call to my left. I am, however, suspicious. There is no draw on the board.

The turn is a trash card. BIG JOHN makes a decent bet: 600. With 600 in the pot, the pot size bet doesn't scare me. I make the call, but I am still suspicious. I am prepared to call some value bets until the river here, but then TJr then does something VERY SURPRISING.

There is an aura of "enough is enough" now emerging from TJr. His demeanour had been very calm, but now it is agitated. Then he BETS BIG. 6500! WTF?????

I have already seen him play some weird hands. He could easily have K8 or K3 suited. As far as my standing in this hand, something is very wrong.

it gets worse (for him). BIG JOHN now emerges from his shell. He has the look. The agitation. He is ALL IN

?????!!!!!!!

"I know where I stand in this hand" I say as I lay down. TJr is in the tank briefly, but makes the call. With AA.

TJr is beat. BIG JOHN turns over 88, and TJr is crippled.

This early boon for BIG JOHN is both his blessing and his curse.

Soon after, again BIG JOHN is in the BB in a limped in or barely raised pot. A VERY READABLE player, a white guy with a trailer park attitude who talks too much (Trailer Mouth is a good name) is in the pot with him.

The flop is 494 and BIG JOHN makes a small bet Trailer Mouth makes a small call. He has a demeanour, tho, of a big hand. I can see it.

The turn is a 6. BIG JOHN makes a MEDIUM BET of 800. He is betting VERY SIMILARLY to the prior hand. Trailer Mouth makes a value raise (obviously, I can see he has a monster hand) to 2000. BIG JOHN makes a cautious call.

The river is irrelevant. BIG JOHN looks suspicious, and checks. Trailer Mouth makes a solid bet of 5000 (his best play of the night...he is a shitty, abc player with no poker face who will get lucky a couple of times waking up with KK against a pot committed player's raise, but he thinks he's a player. He's just a yokel playing by the book) This bet is pot size, but very big in relation to the timing of the game and the preciousness of our starting stack, but he is not at risk.

BIG JOHN is in the tank briefly, but agonizing makes the big call. he has a big hand. 66. Trailer Mouth has 99.

BIG JOHN practically is crying. He put his man on 99. He had probe-bet the flop (as any would, a good flop for 66) and his gut said 99. Even turning the full house, his gut said SLOW DOWN. He feels like he dodged a bullet.

BIG JOHN had his head up and was in the zone, but refused to fully trust his instincts. That gut will save you every time! Maybe 1/2 his gut wanted to to prove the other 1/2 right, but this semi mistake will be the first of several critical ones. (I am leading up to something....) BIG JOHN will become rather flustered and confused as his head and his gut continue to battle....

I will continue the tragic story of Big John very shortly.....

Tournament Update: short version

Well, 20 hours and 3 days of poker later, yours truly is knocked out in 50th place in the main event after entering day 2 in a very healthy 10th place with 67600 chips. 4 hours of no cards later, 88 looked very very good in the BB while two jerks were overbattling from the button and small blind and ignoring me.

10 10, having overbet to 25000 to sheriff the button steal, found himself committed to my remaining 56k when, after analyzing these two most of the day and on this particular hand, I liked what I saw in front and in the hole.

If both these dudes are A high I am big favorite. I knew I was going to get called. There is a time in every tournament to gamble.

I sleep now. The time to fully debrief will come.

Tournament Eve ramblings: Stay cool, m....f.... y'all know the rules

Okay! 1 sleep til main event jr commences tomorrow. I really like the fact that this $1000.00 event is just a warm up to the $3000.00 event.

I also like the fact that I cleaned house last friday playing with the bros, and survived a field of 1000 in a $1 turbo rebuy online yesterday to parlay $5 total buy in into $450 coming in 3rd.

These cheap turbo rebuys (UB has always had one: the new schedule made it a $5000 guaranteed and starts it at 9:00 UB time)have always been a bit of bread and butter for me. I think I've won a dozen outright. But this one is a bit different with such a large field and big pot relative to cost. Given that, after a recent withdrawal, my UB account was a bit short and I had squandered some more expensive opportunities that day, and once I had gotten a decent stack, I committed to playing strong and making a run at it.

Playing strong does not always mean playing strong cards: it means putting your chips in in a few fair fights and gambling. K8 looks huge when you're constantly running from blinds which keep creep at 1/10 of your stack no matter how often you seem to be improving. Sometimes it is just a matter of making sure you are heads up with 2 live cards. Throwing in with A4 is never a smart move: it practically guarantees being a 30% dog if called, and often in these, calls have to be expected. No one lays down AQ or 99 in these things. 96 sooted is in a fair fight with AQ.

This is good comparable pressure to what I expect to face in the next 5 days. In these games, I may be looking at 45 minute and one hour levels, and 2-3 hours before the levels reach 1% of the starting stacks, but the time will come when a bad beat puts me in desperation mode and forces me into more gambling and erratic play.

I find that a little erratic play is MORE effective in protecting your blinds than tight play. If I will call or raise with 69 and gamble, will you attempt to steal with A7? I will have to play fearless and follow my guts and my reads where I sense weakness to win this. BLuffs are post-flop plays: these are gambles.

Let us, on a similar topic to last big blog, discuss the opposite, bluffs that are traps. We discussed a number of cases of how to get paid with trips: let me give you a great example of how I parlayed 4000 chips into 13000 chips in one hand when the blinds were 150/300 in last week's Wednesday $100 casino game.

These stories emphasize the key importance of live play strategies vs. online. I did some magnificent trapping online yesterday with AAs and KKs to maximize chip results in the turbo, but that's easy. Keeping your cool and shifting gears effectively in live play to maximize requires, mainly experience and understanding.

I am in the BB. I have paid 300, leaving me 3700 in chips. I am a mediocre stack with one viable play left in any raised pot.

UTG limps in. He will not be a factor in the hand.

The next player has double my chips, and limps in. He is an older white guy, and my observations put him at a pretty conservative player. Lets call him Steve.

Beside him is an older oriental guy, the kind of guy who will raise any ace. Lets call him Joe. Joe has about 10,000 chips. He limps in.

Play folds to me, including the SB, and I now wake up to look at AA.

Rockets in the pocket, three players interested in a flop, and I will play out of position the whole hand. Opportunity is at hand, but with only 1350 in the pot, 300 my own, the last thing I want to do is scare off my opponents. If I panic, wait to long, or get that buzz that says monster going, I will get nothing but the limps.

"I'll raise" I say calmly. How much? I don't announce immediately. I sense the limpers are watching me. I decide that the "standard raise", to 900, is right here. I do not wish to take enormous time debating this. I want my raise to be done quickly and efficiently, without spills, nervous ticks, or obvious deliberation suggesting "how do I get paid here?"

This is a good bet and a bad bet:

The good:

- With one or two callers, I build a pot of 2550-3150, allowing me to bet the pot with my remaining chips on the flop:
- It is standard enough to be relatively meaningless: it is a value raise, but looks to the unfamiliar as a weak steal attempt from someone who needs to get some chips and lacks much experience to know that this sum is too small to steal, when pot odds of 600 into 1950 supports anyone with 30% to win calling even if they knew I had AA: the BB raise is also such a common steal, that I can raise here while disguising the strength of my hand

The bad:

- You put this value raise together with ANY tell common to holding KK or AA and a smart player picks up the warning signals and gives his hand up, so I gotta play cool, motherf*cker, y'all know the rules (see The Roots album, The Tipping Point: great song, and sort of THE POINT).
- I have offered great pot odds to all three players, one of whom is the loose and lucky type, and will have to play out of position against who knows how many callers, all of whom have invested in the pot and want to see a flop.

I get the good and the bad. All three call. We now have a nice pot of 3750. I have 3100 left. As soon as I see call #3, I am looking at my remaining chips. I am expecting that the whole thing will be in as soon as the flop comes down. I am not greedy. Maybe top pair will call. This is a good pot.

FREEZE

The flop

A spades
Q spades
6 hearts

GEAR SHIFT TIME

It was the best of flops. It was the worst of flops. Now is NOT the time to be indecisive.

What do you do here? Top possible set with flush draw on board and 3 players ahead?
Plan A is easy. Put your chips in. Practically guaranteed to get two folds, and a maybe call with a flush draw from a deep stack.

But lets face it. AA comes only once every so often, and even less when you need it. Flopping AAA is 11% of holding AA. Pretty damn rare. Right now, I have the nuts, subject to an outdraw, and 75% to win (keeping in mind if the board pairs, I am saved from a flush) means I can gamble my fate and take advantage here.

So I check.

I check quickly. I do not deliberate more than 7 seconds here, probably less. I need to be decisive, I need to be quick. I need to credibly CHECK (see last blog and PHil Hellmuth's comments on check tells: Jamie Gold, you should read this blog and learn something)

Why is a CHECK the right move? Any bet says "oh boy, an Ace, and since I have two of them, I will NOT get action given that I RAISED, and any ace in this pot limp-called, meaning weak kicker probably suited, and Ax spades for flush draw here is impossible) and NO ACTION is the result. AK protecting itself is the read, and the bet is respected.

A CHECK suggests one of two things, which are both VERY CREDIBLE: (1) my steal is a bust or (2) my JJ, 10 10, or 99 is a bust. A little bit of disappointment in my body language is all it takes.

So I check. UTG checks.

Steve bets. He is, hmmm, deliberate...confident....CALCULATED. Steve has A HAND. EVENTUALLY a solid 2500 comes out Hmmm....

My gut immediately suggests he flopped a set. limp followed by afforable raise by a call: small PP. This is not QQ. This is 66.

And let's comment on this bet, and compare it to the last big blog. He will turn out to have 66. A on board, raised pot, I have a set. I will get action, possibly from the desperate seeming raiser from the BB....bet value to raise the pot size.

GOOD BET

HANG ON....

Joe is thinking. He is playing with chips. He likes this flop. If I have AAA and Steve has 666, Joe has..oh oh..a draw. But I contemplated the draw when I decided to check, and I accepted my odds with the gamble.

While we wait fror Joe to respond, lets talk about my response. I am the semi-pot committed short stack who raised then checked. That 2500 bet is a lot of my stack. So I play with my stack. I separate 2500 in big chips from 600 in small chips. I weigh them in my hands. I continue to sell my hatred of this situation EVEN THOUGH Steve's eyes are on Joe and Joe's mind is on Steve's bet. The last thing I can do here is get excited.

Lets face it, nice big pot, Steve having made a bet that specifically made him NOT POT COMMITTED, if I have K 10 spades here, I LOVE that flop. Especially if I am a gambler. The size of the pot has become very tempting.

Joe will eventually RAISE ALL IN here. In the meantime, I am sitting there with apparent impatience, apparent contempt, apparent disgust. When Joe finally commits his stack, I with some hesitation, and apparent resignation, declare "looks like I'm priced in here." and put my chips in.

HERE'S WHAT IS IMPORTANT: even with only 600 of my chips left to call here, I stay in character. I don't spaz out and throw my chips in with excitement. But this is because AT NO TIME AM I ACTUALLY DISGUISING A HYPER, EXCITED ADRENALYZED STATE. I am calm, and remain calm.

LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR: I AM NO ACTOR. In drama class, I used to giggle through my lines.

Steve calls all in, and shows his 66. Joe has 64 of spades. While this improves his draw against my set slightly, by holding the case 6 preventing a 66 pair on the board, holding that 6 kills Steve's set, while I still have the case A, three Queens, or runner runner turn card to kill a flush. The computer says 69% to win, and I will take those odds any day to parlay 4000 chips to 13000 chips with 30 to go and blinds of only 130/300.

I WAS NOT ACTING. I hated my hand, my situation, my callers, that flop. I hated them because I have seen so many AA cracks. I have had Aces full of nines fall to quad nines. I have seen my trip AAA fall to flush draws, and QQQ fall to runner runner flushes. AA is so full of expectation, that the disappoinment of seeing them cracked is an easily available memory to use to calm you down. I had AA cracked earlier that night by 44 on a ridiculous 343 flop (ordinarily, I love a tiny paired board with a big overpair to protect me from a flopped 2 pair).

THE KEY TO THIS HAND was the experience I have, which allowed me to identify the scenario, shift gears, and make good swift decisions, all without giving off any information to disguise my monster flop. I was complemented by an observing player, who had no clue I was holding such a big hand.

I had to carry through this in a hand that, from start to finish, might have been 4-5 minutes in length.

Just remember: "I hate AA. I will get sucked out on." It is your mantra. AA is your hot date, but you know she said yes to you on a dare, and you'll get no action from her because you're out of her league and you both know it. You want her. You hate her. Even when she offers up a tease, hate her. Until you clear that river card, hate her like every hot coed you were afraid to ask out in college.

This is of course, not a suckout story. No runner runner 5th six, no spade.

During my ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, it occurs to me that my mark must have put me on a flush draw because of my bet and show with the prior hand drawing nut flush. Her instincts were dead wrong.

I saw her buying into tomorrow's tournament today when I picked up my tickets.

Good luck to me.

A small aside

Incidently, I also intend to share with you what I I hope and expect to be a very unique creation, my own custom-made poker table, courtesy of Crummer Poker Tables and my wallet...including a hyperlink, of course.

No tells here. You will have to wait.

Been a long time been a long lonely lonely lonely.....time

[In an interesting twist of Poker Karma, I got 6 paragraphs into this long overdue, overly long blog only to have an errant key stroke wipe out the whole text. Undeterred, I start again...I intend to save religiously the second time around]

The Poker Monster, after 5 months of "wandering the desert" feeding on sng's and $1 turbo rebuys while riding out a huge bad beat streak, has emerged reborn with new insights and a fresh perspective to go with a new level of his game. It took a MOTHER of ALL BAD BEATS to find this higher plane of poker consciousness. Like all good karmic philosophers, allow me to take a VERY LONG TIME to make my point.

Along the way we'll talk some poker. Final table and key bubble poker, especially about traps and big draws from and against the blinds.

The Poker monster hit some hard times since winning $8500.00 on an online freeroll and his satellite into a major tournament. Sinus surgery, minor but painful, undermined my play during a $1,800.00 game with 500 entries. A final table split agreement with 4 people left on the Monday $60 Casino game gave me a certain $1400.00 over a good shot at $2000 over a tired field, but began a 3 month bad beat streak which turned into a frustration streak which EVENTUALLY turned my focus back to playing as well as I could, only to LEAD UP to the ULTIMATE FINAL TABLE BAD BEAT which, as my "rock bottom", in fact caused a whole new perspective and insight into that enigmatic ghost in the probability machine I, as an ignorant mortal, have occasionally alluded to as "poker karma".

I am now through the looking glass, people. But I get ahead of myself. First let me speak of the results of my rebirth, and then of my path to poker enlightenment.

Since the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, I have played possibly my best poker. I made sick calls and huge laydowns to make my way to the final 4 of the Monday $60 Casino game, and then INSISTED we not chop the pot. Because I was fresh, alert, and in the zone. I had made a call with QJ of hearts to bust a short stack with 88 to make it there. I had folded AJ sooted to a 4x under-the-gun bet, because I looked up after reaching for the 1200 chips, only to see the raiser bristling in anticipation of action as only a big hand does, and laying down to find the raiser's AK up against a short stack with AA. Because I was still playing with my head up and my mind fresh, while others were worried about work the next day and their bedtimes.

And LO, UNTO ME was a raise all in and immediate reraise all in after I opened 4 handed with 88. And I PAUSED, because one of my opponents had a preflop monster, and FOLDED TO SEE the 8 on the flop and A7 in terrible against KK. But I was content with my solid laydown, because, LO, I KNOW when some Joe holds two cowboys, and I had barely committed 5% of a huge stack to see 60% at risk for a three way pot. BECAUSE the ZONE belonged to the MONSTER and to no one else.

Had I called, I knock 2 people out and have a 10 to 1 advantage against the remaining short stack. BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I will be patient, and watch our new chip leader stumble with his chips and keep the short stack in only to fall to KK himself overplaying 67 and flopping 722.

AND LO, THINE SHORT STACK opponent now was leader heads up. And LO, I hear again those sick, sick words of the weary: "LET US CHOP THIS POT and together DWELL in the land of Milk and Honey".

BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I refuse his entreaties. I intend to get Biblical here.

Our weary opponent makes his first stumbling attempting to raise too much. He has announced his raise from the sb/button, but has failed to complete his raise, adding his announcement to the SB of 4k only. He fumbles and drop chips completing the bet after his error is drawn to his attention by the dealer.

SOME of you UNENLIGHTENED may put our stumble on a hand, the nervousness of holding a monster, but THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. We have played the final table for an hour now. I have observed every play he has made. I observe all of this before I look to my hand and see AJ, and move all in instinctively, confidently.

And he tells me what the gut already knew. He was making a move with junk.

The tide has turned. I have won 90% of my races at the final. AJ beat 99 calling all in with two even stacks. Sick call, J on the window. 55 calls to beat a short stack AK. Our prior big stack called with 66 and I needed to steal or double with K10. 10 on the window holds through.

That reraise all-in sealed my momentum, and I pushed my opponent around preflop and post flop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not, until I had him exhausted and his chips at 50% of mine.

AND LO, UNTO ME LAY TWO THIN DUCKS, MEATLESS, BONY, BUT LARGE AS LIFE.
ALL IN I DECLARE, BUT ONLY PUT THE CHIPS TO COMPLETE THE BLIND
MY WEARY OPPONENT, UNAWARE, ANNOUNCES RAISE...
I'M ALREADY ALL IN, I TELL HIM, AND HE CALLS
THE RESIGNATION IS THERE, EVEN AS HE TURNS OVER AQ

AND MY DUCKS SURVIVE 4 SPADES TO RIVER A STRAIGHT.

Why all in with 22? Because, children, because the ghost in the machine had whispered in my ear...

I will parlay my 1900 into outplaying 76 people to earn one of 4 seats in a $220.00 satellite for entry into the $1000.00 and $3000.00 buy-in main events of the major CPT event being hosted by my local casino in a week. And earning it sick and dirty. Surviving an early bad beat (A10 check raising all in into my AQ on an A high flop and turning a 10) to have to race 33 against AJ and 10 10 against AQ to finally get a chip stack with a comfort zone, then out playing a loose aggressive "young gun" who liked to back talk reraising him all in with 88, outplaying another with 88 and a Q J 9 flop, and raising the same "young gun" with A4 (that's right. Ace-four. Off suit) when he cut off raised with J9 spades and was "pot committed" to the call (see earlier blogs, Mr. Young Gun, about pushing short stacks in the blinds). A4 held up, and this kid was just incredulous when I told him I knew I was ahead (BUT NOT HOW I KNEW) just as I had talked him out of calling my 88 earlier by telling him I put him at 30% to win when he tried to talk me into information.

I am a very polite live player, but if someone wants to back-talk and trash talk me, I am happy to play back.

Young gun will bust in 6th. I will burst the bubble making an instacall with AJ clubs against the short stack's push with A3 hearts and seeing the J on the window.

I will follow up online the next day putting $20 into a field of 400 and coming home with $775 after spending the first 90 minutes of the game trapped with no more than my starting stack.

THE "ZONE" IS DEFINED SIMPLY: IT IS THE SUM OF THREE THINGS

(a) I HAVE A COMPLETE FEEL FOR MY OPPONENTS AND THE WAY THEY PLAY
+
(b) I HAVE THE PATIENCE TO BE OBSERVANT BEFORE MAKING ANY COMMITMENTS
+
(c) I HAVE A KARMIC SENSE OF DESTINY OVER THE TWO CARDS I HOLD

often, (c) really is a function of (a) and (b) It was to burst the bubble in the satellite. Sometimes, the equation in a race situation is more like this:

(c) = ((a)squared + (b) squared)/ G
where G is what the Ghost in the Machine has whispered into my ear.

On that fateful Monday, the Ghost told me to fold 88, even though an 8 was coming. I then won clean through superior play rather than through pure luck, providing me with the additional confidence to play sick and strong to win my buy-in for the biggest two events I have ever had the privilege to play. My fold was justified by my read of my players, in spite of my lucky flop, just as my fold with AJ earlier in the tournament in considering an opening raise of 1200, because I stopped to play with my chips, and look up to see the look of the raiser in anticipating my action, and then folding to see his AK fall to AA. Both laydowns confirmed I was in THE ZONE, which can be far more important than winning the pot.

I know no path to this enlightenment, other than the truly random path the Ghost may choose for you. I will tell of my path soon.

Let me talk some hands first. I just went to a seminar highlighted by lectures by Annie Duke, Phil Hellmuth, and a few also-rans. Interestingly enough, Annie Duke's math-based lesson was in many ways identical to my earlier blogs, including all the reasons why suited connectors are, mathematically, unplayable. Her example was 78 sooted. I have ranted similarly about 10 J sooted and off, but I will continue to play 78 sooted, simply because it is often good on a 7 high or 8 high flop, which often has straight outs to go with your top pair in situations where people in the pot are playing hands above this flop like, for example, J10 and JQ. J10 never hits top pair without being outkicked by a hand in the pot.

Annie Duke's poker strategy is based on very sophisticated math which is far in advance of the "basics" found in, say, Phil Gordon's teachings. In fact, when asked of good poker books, Annie and Phil commented on many, including Slancky and Harrington, but never breathed the word "Gordon". Phil Gordon was only mentioned for sucking out on Phil Hellmuth's AA with 99 in the only WSOP final table Mr. Gordon ever made. ENOUGH SAID? Annie will have a new book out soon, 500 pages on post flop play. I will read it, and can recommend it blind on the strength of her lecture today. Very simply, her math message is pretty identical to mine. Where she and I may disagree is that I will play looser in an early game with chips I feel comfortable speculating with in a hope of catching that huge double-up opportunity ("scary play") vs Annie's more conservative formula based on raises, steals, and made hands("tight play"). She has some excellent comments on table image. Very sophisticated analysis. I will look forward to comparing her 500 pages of notes.

Okay, math, odds, putting a guy on a hand...

Lets talk about playing flush draws at critical times in tournaments.

Example one:

[Pay attention kids, because this is the same final table and the same player who delivered me the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT...I've had AAAA cracked, but this is worse]

Final table, $100.00 Casino Wednesday game, I have played excellent to get there, have an average stack of 30k in chips, blinds are 800/1600, two short stacks are already gone, but we have only played 5 hands. I am first to act in the middle with AJ clubs and I raise to 4000. This is the first hand I've played, and 5 players at the table are unfamiliar to me, including the 30 something oriental woman in the BB, who makes the call.

Every time I am at a new table, I try to be very observant in order get a feel for my opponents, and this is now exception. I am watching her eyes through my sunglasses as the flop comes down. I am not looking at the flop, only her reaction to it.

I see disappointment. Clear and obvious disappointment.

I look at the flop. It is 5 high two clubs.

Seeing the flop and her disappointment, I really can think of no better option here.

All in.

She folds.

I show.

Why all in? Aren't I bluffing for my tournament life here?
No, not at all. I am, in fact protecting the best hand. 5 high is of course, 5 4 2. Because it is clear her hand needed a flop, I clearly have a huge number of outs. A, J, 3 for a straight, any club for nut flush. 17 outs is, roughly, (without dead-out counting) 61% ahead of even 10 10 here, and 10 10 loves that flop, not hates it.

Even if I assume I was dominated preflop by QQ or AK, I still have 14 outs, which is even money (50.4%, but my read post-flop confirmed my impression preflop that she was simply defending the BB. It is more likely, then, that I also had the best hand preflop, perhaps dominating. For her to continue here, she is gambling with probably 4 or 5 outs, assuming she has two live overs like Q 10. She gets 5 if she has a club, and I have to take one away. Her best two live/one club scenario forces her to pick up some life at 18% with two to go, while a full 13 of MY outs which will hit 47% of the time and CRUSH her caught Q and 16 of MY outs crush her caught 10 58% of the time.

The last thing I want, however, is a Q or 10 of hearts on a turn card I gave up for cheap, giving my opponent the confidence of top pair and dropping chances of winning in half. I have the best hand because it has dominating POTENTIAL against an opponent who has completely whiffed. If I price someone in for a turn card, with say, a 6000 bet into the 11,000 pot (remember the sb and antes) I gave up control of the hand and possibly a pot. I did not need to play this hand for a big pot, and I cannot trap an opponent with mere potential because shit happens.

So why show?

It is early in the final table. I want to demonstrate a few things which will benefit me in the long run:

(a) I am telling the field that I am going to play the final table aggressive, fearless, and to win;
(b) Less sophisticated players will think I am merely loose-aggressive and think they can play me for double ups, while sophisticated players who paid attention to the flop will understand the math as well as I and perhaps clue in that I also do, giving me action where I want it and respect where I need it: The former sees my move as semi-bluff (Phil Gordon on his good days, or a novice read of Doyle Brunson's Supersystem), the latter as a strong play with a strong hand from someone who understands the whole math of the hand. (Annie Duke)
(c) I will play this opponent again, have a good read on her, I have put her in the former category, and want to set up a trapping opportunity for later (I will eat these words!!!!!!.......wait for it)


[How bizarre...blogger.com is now autosaving like a hot damn]

Okay, here's an example of a similar nature from the seminar:

This is Shawn Rice, whom I consider to be a middling pro. He is an official Ultimate Bet pro, so he is also a guest speaker [Is this a clue to Poker Monster's secret online identity?] His lecture focuses on playing weak $1/2 cash NLHE tables online to maintain your bank roll. He will play a hand where both he and his opponent make big mistakes. These mistakes will not only tell you how to beat Shawn Rice by playing weak at cash tables, but also illustrate the steps I discussed above which both players missed to make mutual mistakes.

Here's the hand.

SR is in the cutoff with QK diamonds and raises to $7 into the blinds, and the BB calls. The BB only has $80 to SR's $200.00 The flop is identical as my example, 5 4 2 diamonds, and Shawn's reasoning is identical: two overs and a flush draw. However he is missing a few pieces of the puzzle, and his draw is not as strong either: there is no git shot straight and he doesn't KNOW he has two overs, or at least live cards, on his opponent. ITS A CASH GAME. PEOPLE DEFEND THEIR CHEAP ASS BLINDS. PEOPLE ALSO CAN HAVE BIG HANDS IN THE BLINDS AND PLAY WELL FROM THEM.

Shawn has no read at all from his opponent. The BB bets weak, $8, and, IN SPITE OF AN EARLIER EXAMPLE WHERE HE TRAPPED WITH A SET OF EIGHTS BY THE SAME OPENING BET INTO THE SAME POT IN THE SAME POSITION(which I will discuss later), SR puts that weak bet as weakness and BETS THE POT (and simply by pressing the bet pot button, which is lazy and stupid. It says to an online opponent that I am lazy, thoughtless, and aggressive, often meaning a bluff or semi-bluff) This bet is big. $31. IN SPITE OF THE BET COMMITTING THE BB TO 1/2 HIS STACK, BB JUST CALLS.

And SR still has NO READ when the 7 spades hits the turn. To a BB check, SR BETS THE POT and GETS CALLED. Rice got no information AT ALL from the called over-raise.

QK and QQ now show down and a King sucks SR out on the river. UGLY.

The BB was trapping a player who, by his own admission, continue bets every raise he makes. Was that a good play, in spite of the suckout? NO.

Why not?

Well, you spend an hour with SR at a cash table, and you find that he raises, but he is not reckless. There is usually a "raisable" hand behind him whether he hit or missed. Maybe he bets to much but he could very well have a hand that could beat QQ eventually.

It is fine to exploit his aggressive nature, but you must to it safely. QQ is good on that flop, but consider the range of hands SR may have made the raise with. QK is out there, but so are MANY A-x combinations, including A-x sooted.

Not even considering the flush draw, A-x on that flop has, effectively, TWO OVERS ON QQ: any 3 and any A. This is MORE dangerous than AK with two to go, because there are four 3's as opposed to three K's to draw from. Would you trap with QQ if you know your opponent has AK? Hell no. Odds to hell, we have ALL SUFFERED the overplayed AK catch up to QQ on turn and river. 21.6% to DISASTER IN A BIG POT. If you give him 25% to hold the two diamonds as well, throw in another 8% or so to disaster, JUST BY ANALYZING HIS LIKELY RANGE OF HANDS as opposed to a more accurate read. A more accurate read understands that odds are even here. With only a coinflip odds, who do you want to have to make that coin flip decision? You, or him? Bet for strength, and he does. Trap for value, and you have already decided you are the gambler.

QQ got greedy here. I liked the small post flop bet. But when the response is a lazy BET POT button click, WHY IN HELL against a real player would you give him a free card with a smooth call? and then guarantee him a river by check calling the turn? $40.00 profit out of this is plenty, when you can reraise all in for $40.00 more and force SR into a decision. If you have $100 more to reraise with, it is a MUCH TOUGHER decision.

You simply cannot get greedy like this without THE NUTS. If this was a short-stacked final table scenario, the temptation to trap might be much greater, but it shouldn't be. When you are offered a guaranteed pot post-flop because you have a strong hand and a good read, this pot offers you a 50% increase on your stack WITHOUT RISKING ANY CHIPS by simply slamming the door shut post-flop and post-raise. You will need those chips waiting for another opportunity.

In other words, QQ here is really identical to my AJ clubs on the same flop for actual strength. I will trap on occasion here, but only against opponents I can bust while affording to lose against them all in, and that is still no excuse for not putting my opponent on a hand or likely hand to the best of my ability and acting accordingly.

If the BB here sets up his pre- or post-flop bet up to an amount set up to give SR some folding odds, such as a small raise preflop which induces a "pot odds" call (total bet $15 maybe), or, better, check raises the flop, because lazy Shawn will click the BET POT button into a $15 pot, making a check-raise of $65.00 into $30 pot not only signal your opponent to a trap, which you want, while making a call with his flush draw marginal. Its a cash table, so you can always rebuy when Shawn sucks out (he was only 25% on the turn), but this trap can only be made in a critical time in a tournament when you can put your opponent on a complete bluff, which usually only occurs when the raising and call make a short stack pot committed preflop. Against a good player with decent stack, you have guaranteed your opponent will be looking for his outs with 2 to go.

Okay, trapping in the blinds, after catching a set: first, Shawn Rice's example:

Again this is cash and on-line, and SR smooth calls a button raise to $10 with 88 from the SB. Both players have $200 or more chips. The flop is AK8 two clubs, but in a heads up situation I am happy for the A and don't care about the flush draw, and so is SR.

SR will bet $8 and sees a lazy pot bet to $46.00. He will act just like the QQ and smooth call to see a J or spades, making two clubs and two spades.

SR has made an excellent read here. This was just a button raise, and the guy is continuing, trying to represent an Ace. Shawn just checks, and a HUGE pot bet (don't to this folks. Size your bets PERIOD so that it looks like there is thought to them) of $120.00 is the result, leading to SR raising all in to about $160, and, amazingly, a Q3 hearts bluff with a gutshot to the river calls and misses for a big cash double up.

NOBODY IS THAT STUPID OR RECKLESS LATE IN A TOURNEY. $1/2 cash NLHE (both live and online) appears to be a weak game full of rookies with the same gambling instincts as those who play $5-50 hands of blackjack. They are fish who play at that level because $3.50 pots offer no thrills. I hate these tables. You and Shawn can have them. I play cash PLOmaha and Limit Omaha 8/b, and I play them for practice against good players who understand these games.

A much better example came from Phil Hellmuth, who brought in a clip from the WSOP 2006 final table, a hand between Jamie Gold and Allan Cunningham. It is on YouTube and it was very instructive.

Cunningham is a very shrewd and observant player, and Jamie Gold a lucky amateur. Phil's example was how Jamie Gold butchered the set trap.

AC has A10 and opens for $900,000 against I believe $100/200k blinds. JG has a 5 to 1 chip lead on AC's 20ish million chips, but flat calls with 88. The flop is ideal, A-8-6 rainbow, and JG has position. There were 3 callers, leaving about $3 million in the pot, and AC, given his relatively weak A for the initial price he laid and his position, makes a conservative bet, $1m. JG just calls but he does so very quickly.

Phil did not comment so much on this play, so I will. Anyone who followed the 2006 WSOP knows that Gold talked too much and revealed way too much, and tended to bet a lot. Gold is very quiet and calls very quickly, actions completely out of character. There is no deliberation. There is no likely draw on the board, only a 7 -9 or 5 -7 straight draw, and while JG can play these hands in raised pots and does with his monster stack, the lack of hesitation in the flat call is inconsistent with the draw. That ace on board in a raised pot will limit any undercard straight draw to the turn. Any good player with the A will smell the draw and shot down the hand if the turn is favourable. Sure, a big stack can call $1m into $5m with 15% to hit the turn, but the quick call is fishy.

You can see that AC smells the fish too. He checks the 2 on the turn, and JG quickly checks back.

Phil was VERY critical of this play, and this might have been the most informative comment we got from him. Phil has seen this play as a tell indicative of a huge trap many times, and he was watching this happen live, so i doubt Phil is bluffing about his read. Phil indicated that the quick check indicates that Gold has already decided to check trap or call trap the turn card, and does not have enough guile in him to disguise it.


[But incidently, I tricked a very good player into PAYING OFF my flush when I had initially raised with A clubs Q, saw a low flop with three clubs, and BET the flop (continuation) GOT TWO CALLERS (like one had a good club) and then CHECKED the club which hit the turn. Then this very good player OVERBET 1500 (potsize) the river giving me only 700 more to go all in, and forcing a pot odds call. I call his bet an overbet because one typically value bets a checked flush, but, as a clever player, he was trying to be misleading. As a cleverer player, I had misdirected my draw by betting the flop and checking the nuts on the turn, to convince another club he was good. Had he bet smaller, I am not sure what my river play would have been, but probably a value raise if I was convinced he was convinced his flush was good.]

Back to Gold and Cunningham.

Cunningham is clearly uncertain about the strength of his hand when the river pairs the 6. The read I put on him here is that he will pay off a value bet, but no more. He bets out a weak $2m bet into a $6m pot.

And JG, who's brain is too actively connected to his mouth, just butchers this opportunity. NOW Gold talks, and he immediately goes all in and prepares to flip his cards on an assumed call. His adrenaline has betrayed him. He just simply lost his cool in this opportunity to knock out the best pro left against him. He says "I knew you didn't have it".

Cunningham folds immediately.

If your goal was to extract 25% of someone's short stack with a huge hand, play this like Jamie. If you want to get ALL OF SOMEONE'S CHIPS AND DOUBLE THROUGH after flopping huge, play like this:

[CAUTION: THE BELOW PORTION OF THIS BLOG ENTRY CONTAINS A GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF THE PHYSICAL CARNAGE OF THE ULTIMATE BAD BEAT. ANYONE WITH THE FLU, ON HEART MEDICATION, OR PREGNANT SHOULD READ AT THEIR OWN PERIL OF VOMIT, HEART ATTACK, MISCARRIAGE, OR GIVING BIRTH TO THE SON OF SATAN. THIS IS A TRAIN WRECK, FOLLOWED BY A CHEMICAL SPILL, FOLLOWED BY CHERNOBYL, AN EARTHQUAKE, AND GODZILLA AND RODAN BUSTING UP YOUR CONDO]

Back to the final table of the $100.00 Wednesday casino game where I "overplayed" my AJ clubs. We are now 7 handed, and our oriental female mark and I have nearly identical stacks of around 40k. Blinds remain 800/1600. I am in the SB.

Little Miss Mark (LMM) is in the cut off, the table is tight so far, and she makes a small raise to 4000. Pretty standard play, and this bet has been enough for the blinds to fold at this tight early final. Play folds to me and I see 77. This is a very good situation to see a flop. 77 is a solid starting hand heads up, my opponent is an open book, and my price is excellent. The BB also thinks so, and makes the pot-odds call (and why not, 2400 into 10000 will make any two cards look good).

The flop is perfect A 7 3 two clubs. I am not remotely concerned with the flush draw, and I have semi-instinctively put LMM on an Ace. While many would bet here small or large, I do not wish to represent the strength representing the most typical call, a decent Ace, because I put my LMM as a very unsophisticated player, and the last thing I want is my mark worried about her kicker.

I play this for what a Phil-Gordon style player will expect: I called to defend my blind, I hate the Ace. I check because it is expected I will check to the raise and the ace. The BB also checks, and LMM makes what would be, if she had the best hand, a good bet, 8000 into the 12000 out there.

Except for one problem. I was anticipating this. She has an Ace, 12000 invested, 20k in the pot, about 30k left, and believes she has what she wants.

I check raise another 10k, putting the put up to 38,000 when she has 30k left. She DOES NOT HESITATE when she reraises and I quickly move in. My reraise was calculated to create an irresistably huge pot against a very simple-minded player who simply did not have the experience or capacity to understand the usual flags of the check-raise.

(see what you can get done without seeing another street which might kill the action, such as another club?).

We are now both all in with me a 98.4% favourite.

That's right. 98.4%. As in LOCKED UP. I have now both doubled up to the chip lead while serving notice to the table that I am truly the POKER MONSTER.

turn is an 8
river....

an 8

RUNNER RUNNER GODDAMN 88. She had 5 outs and needed both of them. an A and an 8, or AA would also do. but I checked the odds out later on the computer.

I AM SICK

LITERALLY SICK.

QUEASY.

DIZZY.

I AM CLOSE TO PUKING.

I KNEW THIS TABLE WAS RIPE FOR THE PICKING AND INSTEAD OF RUNNING OVER THE TABLE I AM GETTING $360.00 FOR PLAYING PERFECT.

SICK SICK SICK

GOOD THING I AM NEITHER FLU-INFECTED, PACE-MAKER-EQUIPPED, OR PREGNANT.

What makes this the ultimate bad beat over when my AAAA got cracked by a royal flush, for example, is not the odds. It is the situation. When my AAAA got cracked, there was a flush made on the turn to my slowplayed set of A's (8 kicker) and I though I had lucked out with the river quads. It was not a critical point in a live tourney, it was online for a $20 buy in in the middle rounds where I could just find the next available game.

What begins as sickness slow turns to anger. Serious anger, made stronger when I did check the odds on the computer. 98.4% to win? That suck out was NOT MERE COINCIDENCE. IT WAS NOT COLLUSION. IT WAS THE HAND OF FATE. THERE IS NO GOD. ONLY THE EVIL HAND OF FATE, AND FATE HAS HATED ME FOR 2 MONTHS AND NOW FATE IS TRYING TO KILL ME.

FATE PAID OFF A WEAK PLAYER WHO DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILLS WITH A BIG STACK TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING AT A FINAL TABLE EXCEPT PAYING OFF BETTER PLAYERS AND DENIED ME MY DUE.

I'm joking? No, I am serious. This is my reaction. I was rewarded for brilliant play in a completely safe situation with OUTRAGEOUS MISFORTUNE.

I am in a tilt tank for 24 hours. I am talking to myself. I am shouting in my head. My faith is truly shaken. GOD MUST HATE ME PERSONALLY.

Until it finally hits me... How do you win a big tournament? You can put your chips in with AA all the time, but lets face it, I remember an online game where I had AA or KK seven times in 45 minutes and got action every time and lost 6 out of 7s. You need to put your chips in with at least coinflip odds and you have to win EVERY CRITICAL RACE whether you are forced to play A4,K 10, 33, or 10 10 for your life. THE ONLY WAY TO DO THIS is to tune in to the (a) (b) and (c) of THE ZONE and come to terms with the Ghost in the Probability Machine. Go with your reads and go with your gut. If you slowplay-limped AQ UTG where you normally raise, only to see huge action ahead of you, fold and see QQ vs AA, it's because the GHOST has WHISPERED and you LISTENED. When you announce the Royal Flush draw when QK diamonds is all in preflop against KK AND IT HITS...When your buddy can't help but declare the runner runner flush suckout against you when you had someone killed and trapped all-in on the flop, and YOU KNOW ITS COMING and IT COMES...or call the river card with 100% accuracy (all true events)....you stop having doubt. You begin to have faith. THE ZONE doesn't always tune in, but when it does, you have to play by it. Ignore it at your peril.

My faith was confirmed about 2 weeks later.

I was playing a $150.00 online tournament and was simply surviving with the short stack. I had just survived a K high all in call against A high while pot committed in the BB to a raise to have a meager 7400 in chips with 600/1200 on the way and less than 20 left. Under the gun, I pushed with A10 because I felt I had to. A stack with similar problems called and so did a tiny stack.

I was up against JJ with my A10 (the small stack hand escapes me). I was 30% with 5 to go, but my heart sunk on the flop.

J 10 3. A set to an under-pair.

The turn...an A
The river...an A

I took down a pot worth 19k, good enough for 3rd, and would take out my opponent with the next hand, effectively knocking two players out and bringing the total to 11, guaranteeing a decent situation at a final table with a top prize of about $5400.00, buy crushing top set with runner runner Aces full of 10s.

My opponent....was furious. As if I had done it to him deliberately. He threatened he would come after me if we were at the same table again. I would have said I have never encountered such anger, not the worst Phil Hellmuth suckout rant, not Devilfish's suckout rant when Phil cracked AA with 99, had I not experienced it myself. Critical time. Huge flop. Guaranteed pot I must win. Outrageous misfortune. Fade to black...

I haven't seen my victim since. Did he see the light? Did he tune into the Ghost of Poker Karma? Or has he sworn off poker forever? I somehow think this was meant to be shared...so that others can find peace with the karmic reality of 52 card infinite probability, and tune in to its more complex algorithms....

Do not think that simply reading this blog will tune you in. This is a trial by fire. You need to feel that sickness. Feel that anger. Feel the shock of reality of the order within the chaos of near infinite probabilities...and allow it in.

All of the universe has order within the randomness. Physical and mathematical laws apply to create predictable outcomes from random interactions. Clouds of interstellar dust collapse into stars and galaxies due to the operation of relativity and gravity incredibly complexly but entirely predictably. It only appears a miracle to those who cannot comprehend the math. So too, apparently, 52 random cards applied to 10 or fewer minds trying to outwit the odds and each other with whatever chance offers them as their tools.

Incidently, my suckout success was SLIGHTLY better odds than my victimization. Runner runner QK for a straight was a 0.4% possibility as well. A full 2% to catch after he flopped the overset.

THATS JUST SICK.

I look forward to blogging about the Coast to Coast $1,000.00 bounty and $3,000.00 main event at the River Rock Casino in Vancouver, Canada May 7 and 9. Until then.

Lazy Monster neglects blogging

Crazy, fateful day today.

My online site decided to freeroll me into its big Sunday $200+9, 927 person, $200,000.00 guaranteed tournament.

I decided to accept said invitation. Its been awhile. Your Friendly Neighbourhood Poker Monster took down his biggest cash ever and period by coming into 6th for 8500.00 crappy, devalued US dollars (up Canada!). One lesson of live poker lost on greedy poker monster today: that quiet, cheap reraise =KK Drop those QQ and stay the chip leader! Or play to win, they are two ladies, my two ladies have NEVER lost at the casino (including major suckouts), and enjoy the extra x mas moolah, baby.

TOMORROW IS THE BIG EVENT

Not the main event, just the biggest live game I happened to be in $1100.00 buy in earned with an $85.00 satellite with top prize $125,000.00 good,hard, CANADIAN dollars.

Who loves ya Baby?

PROMISE TO TELL YA ALL ABOOT IT!