Poker stories poker stories poker stories...Last night's game involved me exploiting a whole bunch of mistakes, so there are quite a few hands to talk about.
Let's start with the very first hand I played, some10 minutes in, when with 25/25 blinds and 2500 chips. I open the pot early with 150 and AK off suit.
The fellow to my right makes a raise of 600. We have 2500 chips, blinds 25/25, there is a total of 200 in the pot, and he has committed 1/4 of his chips. I am suspicious, and I say so. I tell him he obviously doesn't want to see a flop.
In many many circumstances I put a player on a small PP here, but this move is just so bizarre. I have AK, and my comment got the right body language response. He is stiff, all too stiff. He is offering a big pot and my hand is a coin flip to bust up 83% of any PP, let alone any crap he may be trying to make this big play with. This raise is just an early-play test of moxie.
No, I don't re-raise all-in. I could have, but my comment said I wasn't afraid of a flop, so I call the 600 after a brief time in the tank to coordinate my head with my gut.
Fantastic scare flop: 7-8-9, all spades. I'm pretty sure I saw I saw a spade in my hand, but I have to look back and check...sorry not the A, its the K. My read on this guy completely excludes an Ace in his hand, so K of spades is good enough. It does not take long to put the rest of my chips over the line. I am all-in post flop, on the very first hand I play.
As an aside, with a flush draw on board like that, if someone peeks back, the player is usually looking for the strength of that draw. With any subsequent interest in the flop or a next card for a reasonable price, put him on the flush draw/made flush and play accordingly. I like to give a flush draw correct odds on a bet to call a turn: this seems strange, but the flush is only 18% to hit the next card, I have made a modest value bet which does not commit me to the pot, and I have the information required to know what to do following the turn card. The next bet is probably all in if the card is innocuous.
His turn to go in the tank on my early all-in move. It is a dare. No way I make this move with the made flush unless it is small: I am the initial raiser, so if I have the flush it is not small. The raise is, of course, consistent with a good ace or two big paint, or a solid PP, which in this case, includes a spade. Obviously AA including the A of spades would be impossible to drop on this flop.
What I have is a MONSTER DRAW. 9 outs to make the flush, 3 more Kings, 2 more Aces, all of which will beat his 44 (assumed). The simple math makes me a 56% favorite without hitting anything. My huge bet said a few things (1) try and make a dumb play like that again I'll make it for all out chips (an important message) and (2) If I didn't already have you beat preflop I have you now or will catch up. Maybe I have two red kings and I have seen enough. Maybe I am just willing to double up or go home.
After mulling over his trouble, he folds. Later (soon, and not by my hand), when he busts out, he will be heard to whine about how he flopped the nut straight and couldn't call the bet because of the spades. If he really bet 600 with 10J, he deserves to lose them. I have already ranted about 10J off suit, the worst hand in poker, and 10J sooted, the 2nd worst. Look it up. And I don't believe him anyway. He overplayed a very small PP, tops.
I do not show my hand. No way I show there. I just profess my love of the flop. I want to marry that flop, dammit.
One blind round later, we are folded to and enjoy a battle of the blinds for our 25 cent commitments. I have 7J and enjoy a 347 flop, and bet out 75. He calls. The turn is a J, and I bet 200. He calls. The river is a 3 and I check. He bets....wait for it....600 chips. I tell him there is no way he has a 3 and make the call and declare 2 pr. He mucks, but curses the J and says he had 72. I think he thought I had caught up after the bluff, and failed to notice that my 2 pr was JJ 77 not JJ 33. He will be out soon after pushing his 1000 with...I don't remember.
Its funny how people don't pay attention. Those were littlish pots, well played, that said two things: I am willing to get my chips in. I play well from the blinds.
Soon after, with blinds now 25/50, I am in the BB when several players limp in, maybe 4. The small blind pushes it up to 400. I have seen this play so many times before. SB smells weakness and steals. Works often early, usually falls into traps late. This was a bet designed to force any limping hand to drop, and take down the pot there. I have QQ and quickly call. I want to disguise my hand a bit, so I do not raise a fuss. I very strongly suspect I have position on a bluffer.
The flop is 10 10 4 rainbow. And my SB opponent's behaviour is bizarre. He uncaps his cards and stares down at them for 30 seconds. His hand almost looks like its ready to muck without a fight. Inevitably he checks.
This player has played well up to this point, and has me stacked marginally, about 4800 to 4200. He is hardly committed to his 400 chips. I make a big bet intended to announce that he is in trouble...1300, committing 1/3 of his chips to call.
Lets talk about 10-10-4 flops and big PPs for a second. Lets assume you have a big PP and you are sure you are ahead preflop and heads up, and you see a flop like this. If the opponent had a smaller PP, the odds of flopping quads are astronomical (1 in 48 x 1 in 48 x 3 flopped cards is 0.13%, but yes I have flopped quads and gotten paid a few times, which only says I have seen over 3000 flops with pocket pairs) and having 44 hit the set happened last week so It can't happen twice to my big PP that soon (its only 12%), and odds are similarly weak that he raised with a 10. Many good players who have gotten heads up preflop will feel very strong about the strength of a big PP here. Many so-so players will assume a small PP, like 88 is good here, and pray their opponent has AK and missed the flop or simply can't call and risk it. The good players who smell a small PP steal here and have a big PP rarely fold,and lets face it, people who make big calls like this usually have the chips to look you up any way.
My opponent check raises me all in. There is no way a man who has flopped a set or a full house makes this move. You keep up the song and dance. You grumblingly make the call, and hope you can sell another bet on the turn...maybe value bet it yourself. Lets face it, you checked a set, you got a big bet, any move back will clue in your clever opponent that he walked into something, but you got your big bet once. Any move at all....
Except all-in. Why does a huge hand try and push me out of the pot with no draw on the board? He doesn't. I call very quickly. "Good call" he says, and shows what I knew all along, Q5 sooted. I have lost count how many times I have called all in raises with QQ and seen Q high sooted.
Thanks for the chips.
But people just don't learn. I earn another 1500 chips soon after when a fellow with KK limps in, lets me see my A8 spades in the BB for free, catches a K high 2 spade hand, checks to my check on the flop, bets only 250 to my check on the turn (not a spade), and then lets me catch the 10 of spades, and check-raise him for 1200 more chips. I had suspected the 250 was a value bet but 250 of 8000 chips is pretty low risk to see that river.
This player, who watched me bust a big bluffing stack, and got outplayed for a big pot because he decided to get cute with KK, will have forgotten everything 45 minutes later.
45 minutes later, feeling good about my huge start, and then gambling away 2500 trying to bust 2 short stacks with a gut shot straight flush draw (an opponent had my 6 of clubs...not quite a monster but 12 outs is nice) and another 3500 trying to bust a player with my 88 vs. AQ (I suspected someone considered his bet and mucked an A, and he had been making stealing raises from position every time I wanted to play a cheap pot, so I wanted him out, but he rivered his A)...wow, that's a run-on sentence....I am on the button when the board folds to the man to my right, who limps in. Blinds are 150/300, I have 3500 chips or so, and I have AA. I don't want to scare too much off here, I have donked off chips and need to get paid, so I raise to 800.
The BB calls, the same player who had misplayed his set of cowboys and paid off my flush. So does the original limper.
The flop is 6 10 J rainbow. The BB and limper check to me. I am not concerned with this flop at all. If QK is in the pot, I have 2 of 8 straight outs covered and his overcards are valueless. 78? I like to give my opponents a little credit. Before I had made an over bet with QQ...this time I feel safe, and make a value bet, another 800.
Lets look how I am representing here. I am short stacked, on the button, and make a weak stealing raise. The flop has potential, and I make a weak stab at the pot. A weak bluff preflop followed by a weak stab at the pot?
BB thinks so. He check-raises me all in. Maybe he didn't notice that my 1600 actually had substantially committed me to the pot. Maybe he thought I'd missed.
The original limper, who is well stacked by BB, folds. I, in calling, remind him that the last guy who pulled a check-raise stunt on me ran into a big hand.
BB is embarrassed, and hold his card up and refuses to show them as we see the river, a 9, and turn, a ...something, before I get to see that he had 68 off suit.
Interestingly, the original limper pipes up. He did have QK, and would have called the 800, and caught his 6 outer, and likely busted me. BB's dumb play saved my AA from a suckout.
The real moral to this story is: if there is a guy who is outplaying others and making big calls and plays at your table give the dude respect. You may pull off a cute play once, but you will fall into a trap the next time and you'll be out (We will here all about THAT GUY when I talk about this final table). I have discussed AT LENGTH out of position play, including good check raises. If in doubt, read them again. A check raise with a piece of the flop without a solid read on the better is a big pot you just lost.
Ding Ding! Dinner break. I'm going to post this now and continue this story a bit later.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Chapter VII and a half: Road to the Final Table: Short Stacks and Suckout Artists
Final Table Preview: PokerMonster on a rush
Hey folks, another late night return from Monday casino tournament, which means more final table stories. same result as last week...2nd for $1100...but a very different route to getting there.
So, nect long blog, final table play from both the monster stack and the short stack, different starts, different approaches, same result.....
Night All. May luck be yer lady and all that.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Chapter VII: Raising hands and calling hands: short handed final 30 play
Hello pokerers and pokeretters.
Last blog, I really had only introduced the concept of final 30 play involving two primary themes (a) time to chip up! (b) those blinds are gonna get ya!
I am not advocating loose and lucky here. Every raise and every call should be carefully considered. When we are playing to win, we're trying to do more than merely gamble our fortunes away.
I have time and time again discussed the hands capable of being raised in short handed/late position stealing situations. It is important to understand that these are not necessarily calling hands. This is because when you open the pot with a raise, you are not the gambler: the player considering whether to call or reraise is. When I raise with KJ, I have two shots of winning the pot: first, if everyone folds, second, if the flop hits my hand. My reputation thus far will assist in improving the odds of winning the hand preflop, but if, in spite of solid/scary reputation, my raise gets reraised, I have a tough call to make: is the player desperate, or very strong?
I have recently discussed three hands, which I will briefly review:
- We are 7 handed, final table, I have a monster stack. I have just stolen a pot with A-crap on the button, and have the players fold to me where I see 88, and raise it to 20,000 (blinds 3000/6000). The BB, with 60,000 chips, goes all in. I tell him I have a hand, and I get no sign of weakness. I have to fold.
- We are final 30, 8 handed, I have a medium stack, blinds 300/600. Play folds to me in the cut off, and I raise to 1600 with KJ. SB reraises all in with the same size stack as me. I know him to be a strong player: I have to fold, and he will show 99.
- We are 4 handed, final table, my monster stack has now whittled down: after a monster bluff, I have stolen 10k from my neighbour to the left to come up to 60,000 chips. He now has 40k, and goes all in from UTG. Play folds to me in the BB where 88 awaits. With only some reluctance I make the call for 66% of my stack, knowing that losing will cripple me. 88 holds up against A10, I am back to 110,000 chips, and we are three handed with one other big stack and one cripple.
But there is more to it. I have already commented on the strength of 88 against A-random card raising, but I am among the 4 survivors of 110 players. This is a good player. He just folded an A when I pushed all in. He is not going to risk his life on A4 here.
The real reason is that 88 gets stronger against two live overcards as the table shortens. My opponent had a hand that was good but needed protection. My made hand is a pretty solid favorite due to the size of the table.
Math time. Sorry.
In chapter one we talked about the REAL VALUE of AK as a drawing hand. The primary concern at the time was AK running into multiway big pots. In short-handed play, the multiway pot is not the concern, its the probability of catching those cards.
My previous calculations all dealt with 10 handed play. Lets look at A10 vs 88 in 8 handed, 6 handed, and 4 handed play. Lets also assume that we are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN no other player mucked an A,10, or 8, so the remaining deck is live for both players. For the purposes of this exercise, we will simply treat the burn cards as part of the live deck. A10 pushes from UTG, and everyone folds instantly to you with 88 in the BB, and you know if you call you are up against these two, or similar, predictable overcards.
8 Handed
- A10 has 6 outs of 36 live cards, representing 16.7% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 83% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5.56% of the deck, and are 27.8% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 is a 55% favorite here, making this a tough call to make
- A10 has 6 outs of 40 live cards, representing 15% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 75% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5% of the deck, and are 25% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 and 88 are in a dead heat coin flip. If I a reasonable number of chips to spare, I may make this call.
- A10 has 6 outs of 44 live cards, representing 13.6% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 68% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.5% of the deck, and are 23% likely to catch too. 88 is now a 55% favorite. This becomes a tough laydown. Short stacked, my odds are too good not to make a move: if I am chipped up, my odds to knock out a final table opponent here are too good to fold too. Only when I am even stacked with my opponent does this become a tough call. As I did last Monday, I made the call because the blinds were getting very big, I was getting weathered away, and the opportunity to be a favorite for a big pot may not come up again. If the blinds were much cheaper....well...I doubt he puts all 40,000 chips into the pot in the first place.
- A10 has 6 outs of 48 live cards, representing 12.5% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 62.5% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.2% of the deck, and are 21% likely to catch too. If I make the call with 88, I am 58.2% likely to double up or win the tournament.
IF YOU CAN FIND A MUCKED ACE AT THE TABLE AND YOU CAN READ YOUR PLAYER AS HOLDING ACE-GOOD, SERIOUSLY CONSIDER A CALL WITH ANY POCKET PAIR IN ALMOST ANY SHORT HANDED SITUATION.
Take your time and talk to the player. If you cannot make your read, keep probing, and think back to the hands the player has raised before. I particularly like a K-paint push here, just because an obviously mucked Ace may induce the PP to call thinking I am out-deficient when I am not. The more I play the more I find sophisticated players who are much more fond of K high hands than A high hands fro this reason. Miller and Sklansky's book on hold'em theory has an excellent section on hands to push with to ensure you have 2 live when you get called: QK was once my favorite pushing hand until reading that Chapter: tighter players will be calling with AQ, AK, AA, KK, and QQ, all of which put QK in serious trouble, and, of course, trying to gamble against a tight players raise will likely showdown one of these hands, particularly when you re-raise from position.
This is of course the basis for my criticism of players who decided to gamble with Donkey with tiny hands like 44. Donkey's typical raising hand was Paint high-7 or higher. In other words, he's not a complete idiot. His gambles are all designed to maximize two live potential. Other loose aggressive players in these late rounds employ a similar strategy, and it will be important to push with decent PP's 99 or higher against them which will typically be much stronger than A-big against the "two-live aggressive" strategy. AK vs QJ is only a 60% favorite, but 99 dominates the majority of these paint-middle pair combinations.
Against Donkey, you will note, I either saw flops I could afford with good hands and played post flop, or pushed his raises heavy with good PP's (10 10 and QQ). If I had had a strong Ace, which I never did, it is likely I would have seen a flop against Donkey.
Against shorter stacks and held by typical conservative players, expect A high especially if you have seen them calling or raising any Ace or decent aces before. Also keep in mind that these players would not likely go in with very strong PPs: the temptation to trap for value would give these hands away to you. The A high read should become very easy to make with experience.
The moral: following an accurate read, the modest PP can be a very strong calling hand.
Lets take an out away from A10 in all the above situations (except heads up of course):
- 8 handed, A10 has lost 13.8%, putting his chances at 42%, significantly lower than 55%;
- 6 handed, a 12.5% loss drops A10 down to 38.5%;
- 4 handed, a 11.4% loss drops A10 down to a miserable 33.6%.
Obviously, putting an all in player on Ace high while reading that an Ace has been mucked can make a call with any small PP attractive, as your odds are identical. With particularly small PP's though, there is an added element of 2 pair hitting the board to counterfeit your hand which knocks a few percentage points off your odds, but still, if we are 6 handed, an A-high kind of guy goes all in, someone considers a call, and I can afford to lose with 44, it is an almost instant call.
When you go back to hand example 2, you can see why KJ was a pretty quick fold against a raise. A-live is easier to determine whether outs have been folded: in this situation, a weak J or K will be laid down without a whimper. What I didn't know was that all the 9s were mucked. I had to assume he had a PP or an A. I was pretty sure I had "two live", but the prospect of only 5 or less available outs, making me 42% or less to win (the same odds as beating A10 or AQ), pretty much guaranteed I'd be getting in with the worst of it.
Next blog: Final table strategy.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
VI(4): crisis time: the final 30 and beyond!
Hello again. Back from my freeroll, busting out in 20th. Couldn't build a stack, couldn't fold 88 UTG with my last 5000....
Nothing too thrilling from today, perhaps just a quick lesson in good live poker etiquette.
In the third level, 50/100, I raise the UTG limper with AA to 400. The table folds to me and UTG makes the call. We see a 478 flop, and UTG is all in.
I have seen this guy be all in early before. It is a ridiculous overbet here. The pot is 1000. He has 4000. I have 3200. It is suspicious. I have AA. I call immediately.
I expect to see A8 or 99. He has 44.
This was a bad play on his part, and he was very lucky to get a caller. The game is early, why put me on a calling hand? Why protect a set? Some pros say bet big with a set after calling a raise, but you may recall my advice about playing sets: if not, look for it for more details. Even the pro advice does not suggest go all in. Make a good bet that can be raised by your opponent.
If I have AK, I fold to the all in bet. He has a hand that doesn't need protection. The straight draw is incredibly unlikely. There are few players who will raise 10-9 or 5-6 so early. He just got excited and overbet like a silly goose (premature ejaculation: there are pills for it. See your doctor!)
If I am the dude with 44, I either probe (value) bet, say 400 or 500 or less, or check and try to disguise my hand as the straight draw (like last blog with QQ hitting the set with the flush draw).
The A hit the turn. He paid off big, and I stacked huge.
Now, lets put me on AK here, and replay this hand from 44's perspective post flop.
I am assuming the raiser has strong mixed paint (QK) or a strong A(at least AJ), maybe a PP. I want payment. I want to know whether I have a good PP or a strong A here so I can determine how best to get paid.
If 44 checks or bets modest, AK continuation bets 65% of the time, just calls 25%, and folds 10%, depending on the player, and depending on 44's ability to disguise his huge hand. We all over-invest in AK, and will often chase the Ace post flop for the right price.
Here, a modest bet will induce a raise from my AA or similar PP. He will know I have a big PP which is not AA if I reraise: of course, AA isn't afraid of an overcard, and I may slow play it too to maintain a disguise. Almost all PP's KK down will try to bet out any chance of losing when the flop looks so favorable.
This is probably what I do. That A on the turn then tells 44, likely, that AK has hit his hand, and a check or weak bet will induce a raise. Of course with AA, I may attempt to trap here, or let him try to represent hitting his fraudulent A. Bottom line, is I would disguise my hand with AA here to generate a river bet too. Maybe I play it like my KK just got busted.
With AK, I may ultimately get away from this hand, but probably not without serious damage. If he represented a liking to the flop, and appears unfrightened by the A, a good player like me may put the guy on A8 (or a set) and want to slow things down (another example of set radar: the player who appears unafraid of the scare card on the turn has a reason to be unafraid). Lesser players will fall in love with their AA top kicker and pay off mighty.
Lets compare this to an earlier hand...once again I have QQ in position very early (25/25 blinds) and raise to 150. I get three callers. I get a flop of Q 10 2 two diamonds. I am first to act and check (why not, eh). Everyone checks and the turn is the 10 of diamonds. I have a full house, and fear nothing. I bet value, 200, and get one caller. The river is the J of diamonds, and bet 300 and get called by AK, confidently turning over a straight (maybe he had a diamond too, who cares). Its not a huge pot, but I beat a huge hand and got good value by misrepresenting.
Okay, point of etiquette. 44 was very gracious in my suckout. We shook hands. He has 800 chips left, I have a huge stack. 30-odd hands later, he is blinded down to 275 when finally, UTG, he has to push. I owe this gentleman a call, and say so and do so with Q9 clubs. He says thank you. The table folds except for the BB, who only has 125 more to pay. BB indicates that he will check blind by rapping the table before the flop is shown, implying he will check it down. I tell him I agree. I catch my flush on the turn, and I am tempted to bet, even reach for chips, but honour the agreement to check down.
The pot was tiny. This is another good reason to (a) call and (b) check down. We gave the all-in short stack some credit for a hand and some real respect (he had A8). In a game where busting people is the focus, a gracious winner who is also a good player makes friends at the table, not enemies. (Coincidentally, the gentleman I busted in 4th on Monday was also at my table on Wednesday, and being a courteous winner made for a friendly table next tourney (we got to share with the table his suckout story when he had 7000 and A3 UTG when my 100,000 chips and BB woke up with AA and had to apologize for calling...he caught 2 more 3s and managed to grind through into 4th...assisted by a massive bluff on my part with 73 all in into his A high BB the hand before I busted him with 88 in a race with A10).
I want to talk about that final table a bit, but offer some final comments on crisis time and late position play.
You will observe that the first 5 to act fold so often in crisis time, that the final 3, especially the cut off and button, tend to raise and steal. I have talked in early middle play about a number of hands, mixed paint, 88 or better pps, which make good raising hands in these positions as semi steals. It is very rare for me to attempt a steal with 73 or similar trash, and as a result, I can still represent a hand when stealing. From these positions, these hands offer you live cards and coinflips if reraised, but here are situations where YOU SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT A TRASH HAND STEAL IN CRISIS TIME, IF THE SB OR BB IS:
- very short stacked. Desperation will induce a call with any hope of 2 live. The semi stealing hands mentioned are legitimate pushing hands against short stacks however.
- Very large stacked, or generally willing to see flops from bad positions and have strong skills out of position (like me). I won a nice pot today putting the cutoff raise as 50/50 a steal and calling the 1100 bet with K10 spades. The flop was 10 9 4 two more spades, and went all in. I could have check raised the inevitable continuation bet too, but its not like I knew we had a K in common and had to assume two live overcards, 4 outs only to be sure, but I want to stay, not get sucked out on, and my K high flush has been second best plenty of times too. He showed his AK and folded. Hopefully I have taught you how to play similarly fearlessly from the blinds. This is the best way to prevent steals. I and the short stack beside me often got no action on Monday. Today, I had the benefit of the chip leader (who had cleared his former table of chips and usurped me as table captain) to my right to protect my BB.
- Assess your player. Weak players (and you should know by now) have A high only. If you have them stacked, and were only semibluffing, you might as well join in and chase your 2 live. If you had 88 or better, you are likely dominating. Stronger players (those who don't call in love with any ace) have a legitimate hand when they raise. I attempted a KJ semi steal of 1600 with 200/400 blinds into a SB player with a similar chip stack, he went all in quite quickly. The B B was shorter stacked. I couldn't call the SB, told him I'd respect his Ace, and he showed me 99. The BB told us he had A9, and would have moved if the SB got out of the way. I would have called the BB (and it would turn out the case 9 was also folded) and raced. I knew pretty well I had two live here, but I also had 4500 chips left in my stack, and a desire to stick around longer. The BB player would later just limp in AQ from the steal position to avoid losing a big pot. I sure had my man read. He hates aces more than I do. I would go all in with AQ UTG a few hands later and show him after the table folds, just for fun.
- Hopefully, you are only semistealing. If you raised with trash THERE IS ALMOST NO JUSTIFICATION FOR CALLING. Showing down trash will destroy your reputation, even if you do suck out. The next time you raise, I hope you want action (SEE THE STORY OF DONKEY IN LAST BLOG). If you raised a desperate short stack with trash, get your head in the game mister! Folding to just a few chips more says "trash" just as much as showing the table the truth. Even with a monster stack, laziness or aggressiveness for its own sake will attract action from the wrong players: the good ones, who have been patiently waiting for you.
Do you want to win or just limp into the money? Time to decide. If you're reading this, you want to hit the final table and be a factor in it. Right? Good.
Lets say you have an average stack in the final 30...As in last blog, this is 7500 to 12500 in chips. This is simply not going to be enough. You are in okay shape against 300/600 blinds with 12500 in chips, you have equity for patience, and a stack which may be hard to call or raise when you don't necessarily want action... but its time for action, not stack maintenance.
In the casino game I play, the average stack at the final table will be about 25000 chips, and the blinds will be at the 500/1500 or 1000/2000 levels to start (yes 500/1500 is a weird level. Discuss it with the tourney director). The average stack in a 10 handed table has some time, but at just over 10x the blinds, not a lot (and don't forget those antes sucking you dry). Aim for the average, and hope for an opportunity to chip up to a serious final table contender (see last blog!). The final table average is easy to calculate, the expected blind level will be a matter of tourney experience. Prepare for both and try to stack up to accommodate your needs.
You have to play for action now. This means trapping with big hands, and brilliant play post flop to get paid when you have monsters and take down pots when the fortunes are less bright but you have you have found the green light from your opponent(s), like when your modest PP is against overcards post flop, but you get the right read.
I have already provided many many examples of understanding when an under PP is good, when to call a raise with the BB and huge play from the blinds and early position. Time to put all those skills to use, and play fearlessly as if you don't care how late its getting, how close the final table bubble you are, or how big or small your stack is. You have managed your stack well for 3 or more hours now. Time to wield that stack and the reputation you earned by using both as weapons of mass destruction. In doing so that earned reputation will build and build. So will your stack.
Keep in mind as well, in final 30 time, that the tables are going to shrink. From 30 to 21, your table will shrink from 10 to 7 until the 20 bubble bursts. From 20 to 10, it can be as small as 5 players until you make the final.
You need to chip up in an ever tightening noose around your neck of rapidly repeating blinds amid desperate shortstacks and very talented players who already have the survival skills and stacks to match. All the players around you deserve huge respect. You cannot take a hand off. Their game is going to change, and so should yours. Those marginal semi-steal hands we have been discussing have just gone up in value, as have more modest aces. You have been avoiding them in early position before: There is no such thing as early position in a 6 handed table. Only the biggest stacks can be patient now. Modest stacks need to to push and pray. This means you. You may have been playing 1.5 hands for every BB in crisis play 10 handed. 15% of the pots is now every BB 6 and 7 handed. Get active. Get aggressive. Make creative calls. Time to play brilliant with modest holdings. Time to gamble a bit.
The only caveat to this advice is, while modest aces may have more value, and some legitimate showdown value, the tendency to call raises with Ace high at this time means you really aren't gambling with an Ace here, you're gambling with your kicker. AJ and A10 are great raising and calling hands here, but any lower might very well have serious kicker trouble if your raise gets called. I still prefer K9 over A9 here for obvious reasons when A10 comes calling.
Examples:
- from today, final 25: UTG is short stacked with 1000 chips. I am in SB and I;m not much better, blinds are 300/600 and I have 4500. UGH. Table folds to me, and I see QK spades. There is no way I'm folding. BB has me stacked. It is 700 for me and 400 for him to make the call. THERE IS NO WAY I AM CALLING AND CHECKING DOWN HERE. It is not about knocking shortie out. It is about winning the pot. I need to play heads up, and bet accordingly, all in. BB can't call, and I am happy to see UTG pushed with K10 (an excellent hand to push with, two live against most calling aces.). BB, the same guy who raised me with 99 and slowplayed A, tells me he had Q10. and would have easily made the call (of course). The river hits the Q, I win the pot I needed to win.
- Yesterday, final table, down to 7, I am huge (keep in mind this is still crisis time and the table is short just like final 30 play, with a few healthy stacks and some desperate ones at the table). The table folds to me in the SB. I have Q7 and complete the blind to 6000 and the BB (with some 45k to my 100k) checks. This is the power of the big stack. No one wants to play a big pot with the Monster. Flop is AK2. Turn is K. River is 3. We have check-checked all the way to the river, and BB decides to bet 20k, the pot, when I check the river. I tell him I'll look him up, announce my Q high. He has to muck. Of course he had nothing. Any BB player bets middle pair to a check from the SB post-flop after all. Any A gets raised preflop. The other cards, 2 and 3, are so extremely small, they are out on the margins of likely random hands the BB checks with. I don't think a player who has rivered a pair of 3s here bothers to bet. Too risky that the Monster was limp-trapping. The bet was an obvious bluff. He lost half his stack making it, and I enhanced my reputation as THE PLAYER AT THE TABLE.
- Again, yesterday, final table, 7 handed, and the other big stack has just lost a big pot, and everyone folds to him in the cutoff, where he raises my BB of 6000 to 15000. It is folded to me, and I state to him, "looks like an 'I just lost a big pot' steal to me" before I look at my cards and see 77. I had an all-in option here, but this is another big stack (65 to my 120) and big stacks tend to play cautiously against each other with so many small stacks to bust out until the money gets worthwhile. In similar circumstances I have raised all in with 77 and got (and lost) an undesirable showdown when, If I had called, I could have seen a 77-friendly small flop and won a medium pot with a strong bet (something I did much earlier today with a 7 high flop, 66 in the hole, and a modest continuation bet on a player I had stacked 6000 to 2000: I pushed him all in when he bet out 200 after raising preflop to 300), instead of losing a huge pot when a K hit the turn. Here, I call.
- The flop is hilarious: 5 AA. I look to my opponent and ask for a chip count. I am told it is 47k, he looks concerned. I check (I think I'm good, but I need to be sure). He checks back. (the prior hand where I called a big bet with Q high had already happened, so my opponent knows I can make big reads and big calls). The turn is another 5 and I immediately go all in. He folds. I show him the 77, just so he knows that I knew he had no ace.
- Incidentally, I recall a tourney on TV where Doyle Brunson and Lee Watkinson were heads up (a few seasons ago....google it, it is worth watching). With a similar flop and turn, and a river K, Lee called Doyle's big bet on the river expecting the board to play and the pot (in which he had a meaningful preflop investment) to split. Doyle had 10 10 and had figured out that (a) he was good, and (b) Lee expected the split before he bet the river. That tourney is (a) the very best poker I've seen Doyle play; (b) is a case study in how to play shorthanded and heads up (by both of them) and make brilliant calls and plays; and (c) is a very rare example of heads up play where the blinds are very small and every pot gets a bump up preflop and great post-flop poker gets played (as opposed to blinds so big you have to simply hold your nose and gamble preflop)
Final table talk next blog.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Chapter VI.4 Playing with position in crisis time: donkey to my right
Well, the boys got an impromptu game going tonight, so I have less time to blog about yesterday, but I'll see what I can do.
Yesterday's $1,100.00 payoff was 2nd out of 110 in a 50+10 casino tourney, a game highlighted by Yours Truly taking a monster chip lead to the final table. Here's how it went down.
I'm going to focus on crisis time play, but you might as well see how I chipped up to be in a position to play in crisis time in the first place.
There were two significant hands early.
The first was in hand 4, blinds 25/25, first hand I played, opening the pot early with 175 and QQ and getting one caller. Even with 2500 chips, that's a pretty big opening bet and call, and, even with QQ, I have to put my opponent on a solid hand.
And my flop is sweet: Q 43 two clubs. I have flopped a set. As I have said before, the common play here is to bet set, expecting to be raised, but it's hand 4, I have no real read on my opponent, other than he's a young guy with his trucker hat on crooked (I thought the 90's were over, but hey) and the guy had a calling hand. I feign respect to the caller with a check and call a bet of 275.
This bet is not likely a semi-bluff flush draw. Its just not big enough. Its a value bet. The guy has a serious hand, and I have top set. I can tell by the size of the bet and his demeanour. He wants to milk more chips from me, he thinks he's good, and I can disguise my set as a flush draw.
When the turn is another small club, I am disappointed, but not because I'm beat: lets face it, even if I'm dead wrong, how likely is it that AK clubs called my preflop raise? The disappointment is that I have represented a draw that just hit. When I check, he checks back.
The river is meaningless low red card. There is 800 in the pot. My turn to value bet: 600. If he has the flush and raises me, well, its not the first time I walked home early. I don't have him on a flush and my hand his huge. Instead he reluctantly calls, and he shows KK when I announce my set of ladies.
I am sure a lucky donkey. Without that Q on the flop, I would pay off a big chunk or all of my chips to any flop with undercards. Instead I picked up two things: a nice early big pot, and some table respect for playing a big hand well to get paid.
I will grind up to 5000 by the first break, and catch REAL SWEET the very first hand back.
Blinds are 100/200, and I open the pot in early position with a raise of 750 and AQ. Its a big bet for such an early position. I really don't want action, which is likely to be better. AQ is a trouble hand so early, but the Monster craves trouble....
I get a curious response from a late position player, somewhat new to the table, with about 6500 chips. He's all excited about his hand , but not about my raise. He says so. He is animated. And concerned. I am expecting a raise from him but he just calls. My gut instinct is he has 10 10.
His animation provokes an interesting response from another player in the BB. She has demonstrated some skills herself. She showed she knew when her Q7 was good against a AK hand out of position for a good sized pot, and managed to double through with a set holding 99 in earlier action. She quietly calls (she will later tell us she had AK).
If either one of these players raise me, I am likely dumping AQ, but Excited Guy's animation slowed down the smart lady with AK. She is smart enough to know, like I do, that she is likely up against another A and a PP. She, like I, probably put Excited Guy on the PP. He is just so damn excited!
Flop is QQ4. Dynamite. I check. I had already demonstrated concern over his excitedness, and fiegn worry again. He bets out 2000. AK lady folds.
How I play this is important. Up to this point I have not discussed table talk much.
First I ask how much the raise is? 2000. He looks confident in confirming.
I ask how many chips he has left. He counts them up for me. He has invested 2750, he has 3750 left. He has made a big commitment. He thinks he's good on this scary flop.
I go all in, and he calls soon after the dealer counts my 2250 raise. He didn't base his call on pot odds, he honestly thought I was beat.
He had 99. I now have 11000 chips and the big stack at the table.
My table talk did two things: I feigned concern, and got him to demonstrate his belief he was good. He should have known better. If a big pot develops, you bet big on the flop, and your opponent asks for a chip count, he is not likely folding, unless maybe he has a draw, and there is no draw on this board. Your opponent is buying time and gathering information to make the next move designed to maximize payoff in this situation.
This is standard table talk for me. I am extremely careful in a hand to speak in a manner designed to get information rather than give it. Never expose, for example, that you think you have two live or you think its a coin flip. You have told your opponent what you have without getting anything back. The chip count forces your opponent to react physically, and the body language you get should help you figure out where you stand. As we've seen before, I want to know how to get paid with this monster. The 3500 profit in the pot is nice to see, but some patience and information gathering turned that 3500 into 5750.
Woo hoo? Wait.
Soon after, with a few steals and small pots, a new player takes an empty seat to my right (see the title). He has an enormous stack, 35000 maybe? He is giggling like an idiot. In two hands over 10 minutes I watch him overplay Q7 on a 7KK flop to pay 10000 chips to AK. Then he calls this guy and two short stacks with the same hand soon after....Q7....against 44, AK (same AK guy as before) and QK. He giggles. He wants his chips back, he explains, calling 10000 all in. Amazingly, the only card which hits anyone is a 7, and he rakes in 20k more while busting 3 players.
I have position on the king of all donkeys. Patience and good play are all I need.
I needed a lot of patience. I simply manage my 11k over the next hour. I don't have hands which can call his routine raises, and he is up, down, all around, busting some and doubling others. I start to worry as his stack starts to wane a bit, wondering if they'll be anything left by the time I get an opportunity.
The second break comes and goes, and 300/600/75 level begins. There are 30 players left, and I have gone from 3x the average to just over. The patience is rewarded.
Donkey minraises early, and I wake up with K9 hearts. Not the strongest hand, but here is my strategy: If I like my hand and can afford the raise, I'll call and see a flop. He is willing to gamble. He has called every reraise. He has bet every flop. His raises and bets are usually just grabs at handfuls of chips. I need to manage my risks, see flops, and take advantage of position when I hit.
K9 suited is a hand I am fond of. People just don't play K high enough, they play A high too much, and I often don't need to worry about kickers too much. 9 high and K high flops are usually good with a limited field of preflop callers. I tend to play it sooted much more than off, and almost always with position.
This giggling idiot is also the most obvious player I have ever seen. On the rare occasions he has a hand, he bets with some thought and stops giggling. He raises any A or sooted paint-trash combinations preflop. He is in 45% of the hands, either obtaining steals or racing with a shortstack.
I have invested 1200 of 11000 with K9, and watch him bet 4000 into a K high flop. I do not hesistate to raise all in, he does not hesitate to call with A8. Another K on the turn seals the deal and my double up.
Some time,a level, and patience, later, Donkey opens with 3500 early and I see another favorite hand: QK, and with 22000 chips, calling is easy. The flop is again K high, and the rest is predictable: bet, raise all in, call, A-junk. I get another K to seal it, and my 45000 is now approaching his stack. I even told him I had him beat when he asked me why the raise, and goaded the call.
We have 19 players now, and 45000 is lots to take to a final table. But we ain't done with Donkey, folks.
Donkey and I are now trash talking a little bit. I am approaching his stack. He is conceding he has to respect me now, but he sure doesn't like it. Soon after this, I reraise another early position Donkey raise all in with 10-10, and a short stack (12k) comes in with me. My bet is so large, 85% of his stack, he has to fold, but he hates it, and my 10 -10 holds up against AK to give me the clear chip lead, close to 60k
He is still active, and there are some very short stacks left, because Donkey has been busting people and he is only paying off to me. He helps the cause by busting out a few more. and improving to 40,000 chips in the process. There are some disastrously bad moves by other players against Donkey, like gambling 44 all in, virtually offering themselves no better than a coin flip against a guaranteed call. We are soon down to 11, the money and final table bubble, and my luck catches huge.
Donkey is in the SB and I am in the BB. We are the two dominant stacks at a short table of desperation, and a lone middle position player limps in, with everyone else folding to Donkey. No one wants to be the bubble victim, so play is tight.
Stupid donkey. He wants to exploit this tight bubble play, and raises the 1500 limp in to 6000.
I wake up with QQ. I am immediately all in.
Oddly, the limper, with 10k tops, looks at me like he is thinking of calling. I stare at him like he's an idiot. "He's the donkey, I'm the player" I state with my glare. I don't even bother putting on my sunglasses. Limper gets the message. The raise was meant for Donkey, not for him. He dumps what he tells me later, with regret, was A4, because the river will turn out to be an A.
We saw a river because of Donkey's frustration with me beating the hell out of him. The rest of his chips push in and he turns over K8 offsuit.
Bye Bye Donkey Bye Bye. I am a hero and a devil to the rest of the field. Short stacks, some desperate, have made the money. But I have over 100,000 chips, 50k over the next rival to sit down at the final table.
I must save final table talk for later. It is late, and I am freerolling my $1,100.00 with a $100 investment in tomorrow's game.
The obvious message is be patient in crisis time, pick your targets and your spots. Use position to make smart calls when you want to see a flop, target the correct opponents, and use position to make the right plays with monsters when the right targets raise into you. You won't always find such a Donkey, but when you do, controlling your risk with callings and waiting for very strong hands to push with is the best way to go. So many others failed to manage their risk or thought that gambling with A high or 44 against the Donkey was a good play. Why raise into the Donkey with a marginal hand? If your a short stack he's calling or raising. Why offer Donkey two live or two over cards for 35-50% odds to beat you, when patience will get you managed risk to see a flop and real showdown hands will make you 70% or better to beat him?
Why was I the only one to figure out how to beat the Donkey?
PokerMonster returns
More Monstrous than ever!
Been on a poker and computer-free vacation, but I just got back from the casino $1100 richer and with stories to tell...on-point ones too...tomorrow. Its 2 am and I am ready for the sackaroonie.
until then...PM
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
VI.3: More crisis time play
Hello again poker blogees:
Just got in from finishing in 3rd at the local casino $90+10. We had a small field of 77 players, but it was still a grind to the final table. The result of the short field was reaching the final 30 quite quickly. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, because final 30 play is Chapter VII, and the next substantive blog really needs to focus on late position crisis time play, and I don't have many examples of late position play because most of my crisis-time play actually involved a few BB specials more than late position steals and hands, so the motto of today's blog is simply patience during crisis time.
Because its a small tourney, and the nature of this tourney is to create crisis time somewhat early anyway, around the 200/400/50 ante time, this is a very good game to talk about patience in crisis time. Fact of the matter is, your PokerMonster survived crisis time with a few good steals and one big BB special. Lets talk.
I had done reasonably well in early play, ending the first break knocking out my neighbour's last 1000 chips with QQ in the BB to hold 5000 chips after 120 minutes, and then picking up some nice pots after this to grind my way to about 8500 chips, only to fall back down to 5000 chips after chasing 10 10 down to a short stack's AK, and then seeing very little for the next hour....at one time I called a raise from the BB holding K10. When the ace high flop came and I checked, I put my raiser on a small PP and he hated the flop, so I was able to push him out on a stone cold bluff (simply because I called a good raise, and had established a strong image early, he had to put me on an ace). I had earlier done a similar steal raising KJ UTG, getting two callers, both guys who like to see flops, and betting out on a A K x flop. It was a good table to represent an ace by simple shows of strength, so, in spite of the burn with the 10 10, I still liked the table, but for the most part the hour was dry and I had a lot of folding to do.
(I should add that I seem to be one of the few players who can make a bluff with an A on the board and take the pot down, combination of the table image I present and the general assumption that a raise involves a solid A. I usually, but not always, have 2nd pair when I do this, and of course I pick my spots: representing a strong A post flop after raising UTG to open is a good spot, as long as you get a good look at your opponents when the first see the flop and continue to look when you reach for chips. This still takes ice cubes for cajones!)
I am down to 4200 chips when we return after 2nd break, and pay the BB at 300/600/75 ante on second hand. I am feeling like I gotta push no matter what at this point, and there is an early position raise to 2000 from a new player at the table followed by a loose player, who likes to see flops and steal, coming in and calling, on my right, when I get to look down and again see 10 10.
I really like 10 -10. I have seen statistics from my poker simulator that shows that I get paid as well with 10 -10 as with AA. I like it way better than JJ. In ordinary circumstances, I put one player or both on an A, but I know our late position donkey could call with anything, so I don't exactly think I have them on each others' outs and I know my raise won't take either player out of the pot: it is enough to cause either to reraise all-in and isolate. Instead, both players just call, which I think is a good move here: they will check down, and as I stated earlier, this is a smart check down situation because they have a chance of knocking out a dangerous player.
The Q55 flop is encouraging, and the river 10 allows me to ask how my full house is. First player mucks (A something I"m sure) and our lucky late position donkey shows me his K9 of diamonds (talk about a read on that guy)
Now I'm back in business, and in typical Poker Monster Style, (well, I try), Lucky Donkey offers up a raise to 2000 from stealing position the next time I am in the BB, this time holding 66. I just call: I strongly suspect 66 is way ahead here to start. The flop is a lovely 967, two hearts (sound familiar?). I can expect Lucky Donkey to take a stab at any pot offered to him, and feign disappointment while offering up a check. Lucky Donkey has a lot of respect for me, and only offers a small stab at a big pot: 2500. Lucky Donkey likes his sooted cards, and our chips stacks are even, so I figure enough is enough and raise all in: he can't call, and I show my 66 for my Beastly 666 and perpetuate the Poker Monster Myth.
Boo.
I now am able to do some quick math: the final table will average about 19k per stack, and this is about the size of mine with 25 players left. There are some serous short stacks at this point. Its not like I can fold the next 50 hands and limp to the final, that's not PM's style, but it does mean I do not need to make serious gambles. About the only big pot I will play is QJ from 4th position with 14 left and 7 at the table on a raise: I went all in to a check from the BB on a 9-10-J rainbow flop and we both showed down the same hand (with the 8 turn and J river, just for fun).
Having gotten no real opportunities, I wind up limping to the final table with a reasonable 15000 chips with the blinds 500/1500. My patience is rewarded early when I get AK in early position and push all in with my 15k: the man to my right, who was not at my table, calls with AQ and can;t catch lucky, giving me the early double. Sound good? Next hand I get KK, raise to 4000, and get a push all in from short stack with A9 and 10,000 chips. AND get rivered with an A, dropping down to 20k. So I'm back to grinding patience, and pretty much ride steals while staying out of trouble. My resulting table cred from how I played AK and KK certainly helped in the steals, and I improved it laying down AQ to a raise and raising and showing AQ.
In the end, I survived to stand with the two luckiest people at the table, and lost pushing A2 from the BB when the two limped in and getting a call from Old Lucky with K3 sooted. He caught runner runner flush, of course, and Old Lucky (he had to be 70) and New School (he was 24 tops) played 45 minutes of great heads up poker until New School finally cracked Old Lucky chasing 106 sooted on a hunch.....
Solid, or "tight", play does have its value, and patience is critical, but as you can see, waiting for KK didn't pull me to 3rd either. I got more respect for fearlessly playing 66 preflop and outplaying my opponent postflop than merely showing down premium hands would.
Happy pokering folks.
