Chapter VII and a half: Road to the Final Table: Short Stacks and Suckout Artists

Poker stories poker stories poker stories...Last night's game involved me exploiting a whole bunch of mistakes, so there are quite a few hands to talk about.

Let's start with the very first hand I played, some10 minutes in, when with 25/25 blinds and 2500 chips. I open the pot early with 150 and AK off suit.

The fellow to my right makes a raise of 600. We have 2500 chips, blinds 25/25, there is a total of 200 in the pot, and he has committed 1/4 of his chips. I am suspicious, and I say so. I tell him he obviously doesn't want to see a flop.

In many many circumstances I put a player on a small PP here, but this move is just so bizarre. I have AK, and my comment got the right body language response. He is stiff, all too stiff. He is offering a big pot and my hand is a coin flip to bust up 83% of any PP, let alone any crap he may be trying to make this big play with. This raise is just an early-play test of moxie.

No, I don't re-raise all-in. I could have, but my comment said I wasn't afraid of a flop, so I call the 600 after a brief time in the tank to coordinate my head with my gut.

Fantastic scare flop: 7-8-9, all spades. I'm pretty sure I saw I saw a spade in my hand, but I have to look back and check...sorry not the A, its the K. My read on this guy completely excludes an Ace in his hand, so K of spades is good enough. It does not take long to put the rest of my chips over the line. I am all-in post flop, on the very first hand I play.

As an aside, with a flush draw on board like that, if someone peeks back, the player is usually looking for the strength of that draw. With any subsequent interest in the flop or a next card for a reasonable price, put him on the flush draw/made flush and play accordingly. I like to give a flush draw correct odds on a bet to call a turn: this seems strange, but the flush is only 18% to hit the next card, I have made a modest value bet which does not commit me to the pot, and I have the information required to know what to do following the turn card. The next bet is probably all in if the card is innocuous.

His turn to go in the tank on my early all-in move. It is a dare. No way I make this move with the made flush unless it is small: I am the initial raiser, so if I have the flush it is not small. The raise is, of course, consistent with a good ace or two big paint, or a solid PP, which in this case, includes a spade. Obviously AA including the A of spades would be impossible to drop on this flop.

What I have is a MONSTER DRAW. 9 outs to make the flush, 3 more Kings, 2 more Aces, all of which will beat his 44 (assumed). The simple math makes me a 56% favorite without hitting anything. My huge bet said a few things (1) try and make a dumb play like that again I'll make it for all out chips (an important message) and (2) If I didn't already have you beat preflop I have you now or will catch up. Maybe I have two red kings and I have seen enough. Maybe I am just willing to double up or go home.

After mulling over his trouble, he folds. Later (soon, and not by my hand), when he busts out, he will be heard to whine about how he flopped the nut straight and couldn't call the bet because of the spades. If he really bet 600 with 10J, he deserves to lose them. I have already ranted about 10J off suit, the worst hand in poker, and 10J sooted, the 2nd worst. Look it up. And I don't believe him anyway. He overplayed a very small PP, tops.

I do not show my hand. No way I show there. I just profess my love of the flop. I want to marry that flop, dammit.

One blind round later, we are folded to and enjoy a battle of the blinds for our 25 cent commitments. I have 7J and enjoy a 347 flop, and bet out 75. He calls. The turn is a J, and I bet 200. He calls. The river is a 3 and I check. He bets....wait for it....600 chips. I tell him there is no way he has a 3 and make the call and declare 2 pr. He mucks, but curses the J and says he had 72. I think he thought I had caught up after the bluff, and failed to notice that my 2 pr was JJ 77 not JJ 33. He will be out soon after pushing his 1000 with...I don't remember.

Its funny how people don't pay attention. Those were littlish pots, well played, that said two things: I am willing to get my chips in. I play well from the blinds.

Soon after, with blinds now 25/50, I am in the BB when several players limp in, maybe 4. The small blind pushes it up to 400. I have seen this play so many times before. SB smells weakness and steals. Works often early, usually falls into traps late. This was a bet designed to force any limping hand to drop, and take down the pot there. I have QQ and quickly call. I want to disguise my hand a bit, so I do not raise a fuss. I very strongly suspect I have position on a bluffer.

The flop is 10 10 4 rainbow. And my SB opponent's behaviour is bizarre. He uncaps his cards and stares down at them for 30 seconds. His hand almost looks like its ready to muck without a fight. Inevitably he checks.

This player has played well up to this point, and has me stacked marginally, about 4800 to 4200. He is hardly committed to his 400 chips. I make a big bet intended to announce that he is in trouble...1300, committing 1/3 of his chips to call.

Lets talk about 10-10-4 flops and big PPs for a second. Lets assume you have a big PP and you are sure you are ahead preflop and heads up, and you see a flop like this. If the opponent had a smaller PP, the odds of flopping quads are astronomical (1 in 48 x 1 in 48 x 3 flopped cards is 0.13%, but yes I have flopped quads and gotten paid a few times, which only says I have seen over 3000 flops with pocket pairs) and having 44 hit the set happened last week so It can't happen twice to my big PP that soon (its only 12%), and odds are similarly weak that he raised with a 10. Many good players who have gotten heads up preflop will feel very strong about the strength of a big PP here. Many so-so players will assume a small PP, like 88 is good here, and pray their opponent has AK and missed the flop or simply can't call and risk it. The good players who smell a small PP steal here and have a big PP rarely fold,and lets face it, people who make big calls like this usually have the chips to look you up any way.

My opponent check raises me all in. There is no way a man who has flopped a set or a full house makes this move. You keep up the song and dance. You grumblingly make the call, and hope you can sell another bet on the turn...maybe value bet it yourself. Lets face it, you checked a set, you got a big bet, any move back will clue in your clever opponent that he walked into something, but you got your big bet once. Any move at all....

Except all-in. Why does a huge hand try and push me out of the pot with no draw on the board? He doesn't. I call very quickly. "Good call" he says, and shows what I knew all along, Q5 sooted. I have lost count how many times I have called all in raises with QQ and seen Q high sooted.

Thanks for the chips.

But people just don't learn. I earn another 1500 chips soon after when a fellow with KK limps in, lets me see my A8 spades in the BB for free, catches a K high 2 spade hand, checks to my check on the flop, bets only 250 to my check on the turn (not a spade), and then lets me catch the 10 of spades, and check-raise him for 1200 more chips. I had suspected the 250 was a value bet but 250 of 8000 chips is pretty low risk to see that river.

This player, who watched me bust a big bluffing stack, and got outplayed for a big pot because he decided to get cute with KK, will have forgotten everything 45 minutes later.

45 minutes later, feeling good about my huge start, and then gambling away 2500 trying to bust 2 short stacks with a gut shot straight flush draw (an opponent had my 6 of clubs...not quite a monster but 12 outs is nice) and another 3500 trying to bust a player with my 88 vs. AQ (I suspected someone considered his bet and mucked an A, and he had been making stealing raises from position every time I wanted to play a cheap pot, so I wanted him out, but he rivered his A)...wow, that's a run-on sentence....I am on the button when the board folds to the man to my right, who limps in. Blinds are 150/300, I have 3500 chips or so, and I have AA. I don't want to scare too much off here, I have donked off chips and need to get paid, so I raise to 800.

The BB calls, the same player who had misplayed his set of cowboys and paid off my flush. So does the original limper.

The flop is 6 10 J rainbow. The BB and limper check to me. I am not concerned with this flop at all. If QK is in the pot, I have 2 of 8 straight outs covered and his overcards are valueless. 78? I like to give my opponents a little credit. Before I had made an over bet with QQ...this time I feel safe, and make a value bet, another 800.

Lets look how I am representing here. I am short stacked, on the button, and make a weak stealing raise. The flop has potential, and I make a weak stab at the pot. A weak bluff preflop followed by a weak stab at the pot?

BB thinks so. He check-raises me all in. Maybe he didn't notice that my 1600 actually had substantially committed me to the pot. Maybe he thought I'd missed.

The original limper, who is well stacked by BB, folds. I, in calling, remind him that the last guy who pulled a check-raise stunt on me ran into a big hand.

BB is embarrassed, and hold his card up and refuses to show them as we see the river, a 9, and turn, a ...something, before I get to see that he had 68 off suit.

Interestingly, the original limper pipes up. He did have QK, and would have called the 800, and caught his 6 outer, and likely busted me. BB's dumb play saved my AA from a suckout.

The real moral to this story is: if there is a guy who is outplaying others and making big calls and plays at your table give the dude respect. You may pull off a cute play once, but you will fall into a trap the next time and you'll be out (We will here all about THAT GUY when I talk about this final table). I have discussed AT LENGTH out of position play, including good check raises. If in doubt, read them again. A check raise with a piece of the flop without a solid read on the better is a big pot you just lost.

Ding Ding! Dinner break. I'm going to post this now and continue this story a bit later.