Chapter VII: Raising hands and calling hands: short handed final 30 play

Hello pokerers and pokeretters.

Last blog, I really had only introduced the concept of final 30 play involving two primary themes (a) time to chip up! (b) those blinds are gonna get ya!

I am not advocating loose and lucky here. Every raise and every call should be carefully considered. When we are playing to win, we're trying to do more than merely gamble our fortunes away.

I have time and time again discussed the hands capable of being raised in short handed/late position stealing situations. It is important to understand that these are not necessarily calling hands. This is because when you open the pot with a raise, you are not the gambler: the player considering whether to call or reraise is. When I raise with KJ, I have two shots of winning the pot: first, if everyone folds, second, if the flop hits my hand. My reputation thus far will assist in improving the odds of winning the hand preflop, but if, in spite of solid/scary reputation, my raise gets reraised, I have a tough call to make: is the player desperate, or very strong?

I have recently discussed three hands, which I will briefly review:

1. We are 7 handed, final table, I have a monster stack. I have just stolen a pot with A-crap on the button, and have the players fold to me where I see 88, and raise it to 20,000 (blinds 3000/6000). The BB, with 60,000 chips, goes all in. I tell him I have a hand, and I get no sign of weakness. I have to fold.
2. We are final 30, 8 handed, I have a medium stack, blinds 300/600. Play folds to me in the cut off, and I raise to 1600 with KJ. SB reraises all in with the same size stack as me. I know him to be a strong player: I have to fold, and he will show 99.
3. We are 4 handed, final table, my monster stack has now whittled down: after a monster bluff, I have stolen 10k from my neighbour to the left to come up to 60,000 chips. He now has 40k, and goes all in from UTG. Play folds to me in the BB where 88 awaits. With only some reluctance I make the call for 66% of my stack, knowing that losing will cripple me. 88 holds up against A10, I am back to 110,000 chips, and we are three handed with one other big stack and one cripple.

Why is 88 a folding hand in hand 1 and a calling hand in hand 3? The all in raises to some extent appear identical. I had a read on hand 1 that my opponent was begging a call. In hand 3, my opponent's 40,000 chips were getting a bit thin considering the 4 handed play, and it was clear he didn't want to play a big pot just steal the blinds and antes.

But there is more to it. I have already commented on the strength of 88 against A-random card raising, but I am among the 4 survivors of 110 players. This is a good player. He just folded an A when I pushed all in. He is not going to risk his life on A4 here.

The real reason is that 88 gets stronger against two live overcards as the table shortens. My opponent had a hand that was good but needed protection. My made hand is a pretty solid favorite due to the size of the table.

Math time. Sorry.

In chapter one we talked about the REAL VALUE of AK as a drawing hand. The primary concern at the time was AK running into multiway big pots. In short-handed play, the multiway pot is not the concern, its the probability of catching those cards.

My previous calculations all dealt with 10 handed play. Lets look at A10 vs 88 in 8 handed, 6 handed, and 4 handed play. Lets also assume that we are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN no other player mucked an A,10, or 8, so the remaining deck is live for both players. For the purposes of this exercise, we will simply treat the burn cards as part of the live deck. A10 pushes from UTG, and everyone folds instantly to you with 88 in the BB, and you know if you call you are up against these two, or similar, predictable overcards.

8 Handed

• A10 has 6 outs of 36 live cards, representing 16.7% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 83% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5.56% of the deck, and are 27.8% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 is a 55% favorite here, making this a tough call to make
  

6 handed

• A10 has 6 outs of 40 live cards, representing 15% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 75% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5% of the deck, and are 25% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 and 88 are in a dead heat coin flip. If I a reasonable number of chips to spare, I may make this call.
  

4 handed

• A10 has 6 outs of 44 live cards, representing 13.6% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 68% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.5% of the deck, and are 23% likely to catch too. 88 is now a 55% favorite. This becomes a tough laydown. Short stacked, my odds are too good not to make a move: if I am chipped up, my odds to knock out a final table opponent here are too good to fold too. Only when I am even stacked with my opponent does this become a tough call. As I did last Monday, I made the call because the blinds were getting very big, I was getting weathered away, and the opportunity to be a favorite for a big pot may not come up again. If the blinds were much cheaper....well...I doubt he puts all 40,000 chips into the pot in the first place.
  

Lets also look at this head's up!

• A10 has 6 outs of 48 live cards, representing 12.5% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 62.5% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.2% of the deck, and are 21% likely to catch too. If I make the call with 88, I am 58.2% likely to double up or win the tournament.

Of course, 8 handed it would be very difficult to conclude that no catch up cards were mucked. This is not as difficult 6 handed. Keep in mind there are only 2 times in a tournament when we are 6 handed: with 11 or 12 left, or at the final table. In these situations, anyone holding an Ace is going to give it serious consideration. With you in the BB, the UTG all-in player walks his chips through the full gauntlet of the table. Most players do not look at their cards until play has come to them. This is a good practice, because you limit any opportunity for anyone to get a tell on you. Just in case you were handed a BB special, pay close attention to the table when you are in this situation. If a player hesitates, also watch the all-in player for his reaction to the hesitation.

IF YOU CAN FIND A MUCKED ACE AT THE TABLE AND YOU CAN READ YOUR PLAYER AS HOLDING ACE-GOOD, SERIOUSLY CONSIDER A CALL WITH ANY POCKET PAIR IN ALMOST ANY SHORT HANDED SITUATION.

Take your time and talk to the player. If you cannot make your read, keep probing, and think back to the hands the player has raised before. I particularly like a K-paint push here, just because an obviously mucked Ace may induce the PP to call thinking I am out-deficient when I am not. The more I play the more I find sophisticated players who are much more fond of K high hands than A high hands fro this reason. Miller and Sklansky's book on hold'em theory has an excellent section on hands to push with to ensure you have 2 live when you get called: QK was once my favorite pushing hand until reading that Chapter: tighter players will be calling with AQ, AK, AA, KK, and QQ, all of which put QK in serious trouble, and, of course, trying to gamble against a tight players raise will likely showdown one of these hands, particularly when you re-raise from position.

This is of course the basis for my criticism of players who decided to gamble with Donkey with tiny hands like 44. Donkey's typical raising hand was Paint high-7 or higher. In other words, he's not a complete idiot. His gambles are all designed to maximize two live potential. Other loose aggressive players in these late rounds employ a similar strategy, and it will be important to push with decent PP's 99 or higher against them which will typically be much stronger than A-big against the "two-live aggressive" strategy. AK vs QJ is only a 60% favorite, but 99 dominates the majority of these paint-middle pair combinations.

Against Donkey, you will note, I either saw flops I could afford with good hands and played post flop, or pushed his raises heavy with good PP's (10 10 and QQ). If I had had a strong Ace, which I never did, it is likely I would have seen a flop against Donkey.

Against shorter stacks and held by typical conservative players, expect A high especially if you have seen them calling or raising any Ace or decent aces before. Also keep in mind that these players would not likely go in with very strong PPs: the temptation to trap for value would give these hands away to you. The A high read should become very easy to make with experience.

The moral: following an accurate read, the modest PP can be a very strong calling hand.

Lets take an out away from A10 in all the above situations (except heads up of course):

• 8 handed, A10 has lost 13.8%, putting his chances at 42%, significantly lower than 55%;
• 6 handed, a 12.5% loss drops A10 down to 38.5%;
• 4 handed, a 11.4% loss drops A10 down to a miserable 33.6%.

The lessons of earlier blogs on outs magnify in importance significantly when the consequences of making these calls can so dramatically impact your fortunes in a tournament: chipping you up while crippling or knocking an opponent out, bringing you closer to the bigger prizes.

Obviously, putting an all in player on Ace high while reading that an Ace has been mucked can make a call with any small PP attractive, as your odds are identical. With particularly small PP's though, there is an added element of 2 pair hitting the board to counterfeit your hand which knocks a few percentage points off your odds, but still, if we are 6 handed, an A-high kind of guy goes all in, someone considers a call, and I can afford to lose with 44, it is an almost instant call.

When you go back to hand example 2, you can see why KJ was a pretty quick fold against a raise. A-live is easier to determine whether outs have been folded: in this situation, a weak J or K will be laid down without a whimper. What I didn't know was that all the 9s were mucked. I had to assume he had a PP or an A. I was pretty sure I had "two live", but the prospect of only 5 or less available outs, making me 42% or less to win (the same odds as beating A10 or AQ), pretty much guaranteed I'd be getting in with the worst of it.

Next blog: Final table strategy.