Interlude: big tells and big reads

Okay okay, PM's been a little lazy with the blogging. Saturday was a grind...5 hours later I had the same chip stack I started with. I couldn't generate action. I was making amazing reads....but who cares if you're not in the pot. Without cards, my poker wits were wasted.

But lets talk about a few of those reads, including a few big laydowns.

Here's two big laydowns, both absolutely correct, one from Saturday, the other from Monday.

Let's set up the Saturday story with another hand with the same player. His actions in this hand may well have arisen from how he played me on a prior hand.

This fellow is a reasonable player, who is 2 seats to my right, so I often have position on him. In early position, with blinds 150/300, he makes a standard 3x raise, 900, and I, with 88, make the call. We both have give or take 10,000 chips. The rest of the field folds, and we see a flop of Q 9 4 two spades.

Our man makes a weak stab at the pot of 1000. He sounds weak. I feel weakness and make a call quickly.

Now why did I "feel" weakness"? There is over 2000 in the pot, a flush draw on the board, and his bet is barely over his raise. This is a guy trying not to lose too much. He missed the board. I am thinking AK.

The next card is another 9. He checks and I check back. Obviously, my smooth call must alert him to a possible draw. The reality is I am floating a bit, waiting for the weakness to be clear. He does not protect his hand from a draw on the turn: he has no hand to protect. There is no way he has a Q from the flop and no way he has a 9.

The river is a garbage small card, and he checks again. 3000 of my chips come out quickly. He tanks for 30 seconds, but we both knew he was beat with AK. He didn't show and neither did I.

Assuming he had AK, I don't like his opening bet. I treat AK early similarly to a small PP. I raise it 4x to 5x, depending on where I stand at the table. I am out of position, and I don't want to play AK there. The continuation bet which becomes obligatory is often disasterous. With a big bet, I am daring someone to make a move, and it is much easier to simply play AK in a race out of position.

I had outplayed a few people in pots up to that point, so the natural tendency of the table was to stay out of pots with me. Unfortunately, I ran into two people I knew at my second table on Monday, one of whom I had busted at the Donkey table 2 weeks ago, so discussions of my taking Donkey out and coming in 2nd followed. Again dry action, but it permitted a lot of steals when that was all I wanted.

Okay, back to Saturday. A few hands later, I am now first to act with JJ and raise to 1200 (4x): again I am protecting JJ by making the more substantive bet. Another player in middle position reraises me to 2500. I am suspicious of this play, and inclined to play a pot with him. But AK man comes roaring out of the BB with 12000 all in. The old adage applies here: a raise and a reraise and you're up against KK or AA. The bottom line is, I am hardly pot committed, and not prepared to chase a set of jacks. I fold, but the original raiser calls, and shows down his 10 10 to KK. KK was very aggressive coming in, like a freight train. It was obvious to me he had a big hand. 10 10 simply had no clue where he stood in the hand, and lost most of his chips.

This player didn't want a 3 way pot and didn't want me outplaying him with position, so his all in raise got what he wanted.

Very similarly, on Monday, with blinds at 100/200, I come in early with AQ betting 650 from my stack of 7000. It is folded down to a man in late position. He's got this look on his face, like he's gonna make a play on my raise, but he only doubles up to 1300. I am more than suspicious: with modest blinds, this minraise is designed to get me heads up but continue the action. I have no doubt I am up against KK, and intend to fold, but, the BB, the fellow I had busted with the 10 10 in the Donkey game has the same, "what play should I make here?" look on his face, and makes the call. I am dead certain I am against two big hands here, but for 650 into a pot of 2350 I make the call, really expecting that I will only win if I flop huge, like two more Q's.

The flop is Q 10 8 two hearts, and the BB goes all in very quickly for 5000 more. I tank, but only briefly, and think aloud: straight draw on board, flush draw on board, (I have AQ, I think silently, there isn't another, and this cat is protecting his hand), you must have the KK ( a bit of deception, as I KNOW my raiser has KK) and fold. the raiser, with KK, makes the call, and doubles the BB with AA.

That was the easiest laydown of my life. If BB didn't have me beat, KK did. But KK never figured out where he was. Let's face it, KK can't lay down this flop, but maybe he should. A set could have been protecting itself here too. I'm not sure QK makes that move from that position, a bet but not all in. With AA, we all have a tendency to enter protection mode when the flop is scary, and the usual move is all in. KK the same way. Had KK been listening, he might have clued in that I had hit the flop from my tanking and talking, and AQ was my most likely hand, meaning the all in was not likely AQ.

But could you lay KK down there? Online, no way: even though KK seems to attract AA or an A high flop a little too much...but this guy had a lot of information. BB's all in was not exactly timid. It was a "this is my pot" all-in suggestive of strength in need of protection. There is a story in Phil Gordon about how he laid down KK when Mike Matusow bet into him with QQ and Phil Hellmuth (funny I keep spelling it Hellmouth) reraised all in with AA at a final table, but Hellmuth played that wrong. Get some action Phil, and stop playing small games for your 11th bracelet and beat a few pros. BB played his AA way better, and only one of two suckers figured him out (it helped that I had the lock on the man with KK which made my move so easy).

I have been having that "lock" since Saturday. A couple of examples from Saturday:

The player to my left is a good player, but he talks too much. He has reasonable experience, and picked up a few pots. The player to my right has lost a couple, and is down to maybe 8000. The blinds are 75/150, and Talks Too Much (TTM) raises in early position, and the only caller is Lost Too Much (LTM) in the BB.

The flop is 5 6 2 rainbow. LTM checks. TTM bets 1200. LTM check-raises to 2500 and TTM makes the call.

The turn is an 8, and LTM puts the rest of his chips in, about 4500, without hesitation. TTM now goes into the tank. FOR A LONG TIME. He can't put LTM on a hand, and is thinking aloud. At one point he almost asks me for advice, and I get a peek at one his cards, and I'm pretty sure I see the Q of clubs. I tell him he ain't getting any help. I have them both on a hand at this point...

Do you? Lets go into the tank with TTM and figure it out. Maybe read back a blog or two. I talked about this scenario. What does a raiser often do when checked-to post flop? Continuation bet. What does a player out of position do when the flop is low and the man he puts on AK or AQ appears to have bet into a flop he missed? Check raise if he has a piece of the flop. In this case, however, we have a raised pot, so its not like he protected his hand with A6 here. LTM has a small PP. In fact, I have him on 77 at this point.

Why 77? Why not a set? Because LTM is playing back at TTM like TTM has two big cards to beat him with. He saved just enough chips to make a big turn bet to take down the pot. AQ has to fold here. With that read, a set is pretty safe. See what a river trap gets you.

Which is why TTM does not have AQ. He thinks LTM caught a set on him. TTM has QQ. (I got a hint of course)

77 looks like its in great shape with the additional straight draw from the 8 which could not have helped his opponent.

I don't know if TTM figured it out too, but EVENTUALLY makes the call...with QQ....and sees 77. The river doesn't help and LTM is gone.

Compare LTM's play against mine with the 88. Certainly, LTM was out of position, but he used the check raise well to get the information he thought he needed. The "just call", in my view, was not deception on TTM's part. The check raise confused him, and his call was a quick reaction, but LTM misinterpreted this confusion as TTM getting good odds to play "chase the ace", and the turn made him feel 77 was the best hand.

LTM only used post flop information to figure his opponent out. I used the whole board to get comfortable with 88 being the best hand. The overcards were not that appreciable a difference in my thinking. When in doubt with a small PP post flop, fold it. If you can make these reads with confidence, bet with equal confidence. Be prepared to be wrong until you start getting it right. You will see the patterns of what happened when you thought 77 was good and was wrong, and your gut will tell you when it is happening again. Eventually.

Yesterday, early in the game, blinds 25/50, an UTG limper who looks and acts like Ron Howard, we'll call him Opie, and the BB both call a modest button raise of 150. With 500 in the pot, and a flop of 2 8 9 two clubs, BB makes a bet of 700, and Opie beats him to the pot all in. The button immediately folds, and we at the other end of the table whisper to ourselves about Opie's obvious set. He is just so excited! BB tanks for a bit, but eventually calls and turns over 10 10. Opie will reveal 99.

Opie played this real silly but got paid anyway. You will get this excited too until you get a little experience under your belts. I doubled up a few hands later slow playing A8 on a 10 8 8 board against an aggressive player. I got excited when he check raised me all in on a 2 turn card, and then showed me 33, but kept clam up to then. Actually, this move was a nice set up for this guy t0 get action when he got some real premium hands....but back to Opie. The original raiser was trying to push out the straight and flush draws, Mayberry Brain. Sucker him into thinking you're on one. But Gosh Paw, I'd a flopped me a whole bunch a nines! I feel sorry for his girlfriend: Boobs! I'm so excited! Um, let me get a sponge.... The analogy between the slow play and the slow hand is pretty strong, I'd say....

Last hand to talk about.

We are late in the Saturday tourney, blinds at 300/600/75 ante, and there is a new chip stack who has just sat down. He has lots of chips. I am jealous. I was at the tight table.

A player whom I'd been playing with since table one, a nice guy, limps in, and play folds to the New Sheriff. New Sheriff? New thief. He raises to 3000. Nice Guy knows this is a steal, but Nice Guy's reaction reveals his hand. He re-raises, to 6000. My immediate thought is 10 10. New Sheriff makes the call. I get the impression New Sheriff likes to float and steal post flop.

The flop is 4 10 Q and Nice Guy bets 6000. This is a typical play for Nice Guy. New Sheriff appears hesitant and makes the call. The turn is another Q, and Nice Guy makes a play I don't like (given that I know what he has) and attempts a value bet of 6000 again. New Sheriff figures him out, and Nice Guy shows his 10 10. No duh, nice guy!

Nice Guy could have EASILY slowed down on that turn card and let New Sheriff make his move on the float, representing the Q. These are the plays you gotta make! Big stack, new to table, big pot, you have a full house....let him take a stab at it or catch up! Nice Guy had a nice stack after that, and New Sherriff never stole again (I reraised him all in once from the BB on a steal attempt), but Nice Guy might have become New Sheriff Big Gun at a nice time (40 people left) if he had been a sneaky little bastard like the Poker Monster....

Okay, I've been promising more final table action, but I'm not sure my audience is quite ready....
maybe after tomorrow's tourney, we'll see if I can go top 3 4 weeks in a row....

The Lady of Luck owes me some big cards tomorrow.....

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