The Rise and Fall of Al part 3.1: oufoxing the Grey Fox

In recent blogs (okay, sporadic blogs of relatively recent vintage), and especially the last blog, I have discussed playing so obviously with KK that a sophisticated player like Al or the Monster will put you on your hand and deprive you of action. I am certain that it is only fatigue that prevented Al from getting away from his two lovely ladies last night.

The two obvious plays were the obvious look on one's face, pause in face of a raise, and calculated nominal re-raise, and the "I don't care what the raiser has" instant all-in.

I have, many times, taken KK in mid position, in the face of an early raise, and trapped with it to obtain a a huge three-way pot which triples me up late in a tourney and turns me into a Top 5 chip leader and table captain.

Lets put ourselves in the shoes of the man with KK waking up to the giddeup-go in the face of Al's raise. Al may not have been at the table long, but any greybeard (I'm being unfair, Al is only 10 years older than me) is usually a sneaky bastard and knows that an UTG raise is risky without a strong hand, and you should respect the game of any of the older players, particularly ones in the final 30, and especially if they have acquired a healthy stack.

I can therefore to put Al on a range of hands from AK to AJ, and any PP AA on down to, ar worst, 99 or 88, maybe 77. His raise invites a response, being small, so it could be a monster AA or it could be a hand he may very well get away from, like JJ or 10 10.

I don't have much information here, and I want to act quickly in response to this raise. Obviously peeking down at KK tells me Al doesn't have KK, and I am 70% fave or better to win preflop against all but AA. I am generally of the view that AA is fair game to kick my ass if i am holding KK at this crucial time of the tournament.

In other words, I do not have a ton of thinking to do. I am safe with KK as a huge favorite. I want to make the call quite quickly but not too quickly, and silently. The time it takes to pick up the correct denomination of chips is plenty of delay, and make the call. I do not announce the call, I just slide the chips forward.

If I am lucky, my lack of attention--getting on the call will not be noticed by players coming in later. I want them all to look up when it is their turn and see a small raise and call, and have no other information. I am not representing anything other than a hand which I would like to see a flop with. Hopefully they were chatting with a neighbour or ogling the waitress when I called.

If I am very lucky, a desperate short stack or aggressive big stack sees 5600 of dead money in the pot, a weak raise and call for two players who are not pot committed, and ideally, the BB and SB are not short and desperate, making theft a solid option. Time and time again, I have seen late raises here, more so than if there were two limpers. A weak PP or A high may very well try to steal this tempting money. I often see the moderate raise and call both fold to the significant reraise.

Lets say a guy with 35000 chips is holding AQ on the button, and the play folds to him. He will be very tempted to play back strong here. Lets say he does, and puts Al and you both all in.

What does Al do here? He has QQ, and the big stack decides to get pushy? He can easily put the big stack on a weaker hand than QQ, and he simply can't put you on a hand if you have managed the sly call effectively. Al thinks he is the trapper here, and simply must call, if I have done my job and snuck in my KK covertly. If I can hold my water and relax during this, so much the better. Maybe there is a game on the TV overhead, or a hot waitress or patron just walked by to assist in my distraction. Al cannot have the information required to read my hand. He's all in and so am I, QQ is dead to one out, AQ has 3.

My odds calculator puts KK ahead 71.2% vs AQ, 81.7% vs QQ head up, and a full 65.2%, close to 2/3, three handed to triple up. That is an overwhelmingly fantastic position to be in for a tournament-defining triple up. If my two opponents are AQ and AJ, I am 73%. My weakest odds are against a lower PP like JJ vs AQ, only 57%, but still the correct play. I can afford a little distraction until the flop strikes felt.

What is important here, faced with a big raise from a big stack, and a call from Al, is I now can confirm he has a very strong hand, which is not KK, and may very well not be AA, and I really can expect the big stack to be pushing with the worst of it. There is no way that big stack (or desperate short stack) pushes us both all in with AA.

Here's why.

Al and I are equal in chips, and have committed 18% to 20% of out stack to these hands. We are not pot committed, and if this action folds to me with AA, any raise I make pretty much commits my opponents to the pot to call, and a mere minraise is way too damn obvious too. I am in a conundrum, and unless I make a very quick and correct decision, I give away my strength and lose my fishies. I think the best move for me with AA is another simple, quick call, knowing that I have created a 7400 pot for two stacks with about 8000 left which will tempt both sorely while I have position. I am 67% likely to be the winner after 5 cards, 80% to be ahead on the flop against two lower pair, and can afford the bad beat if they catch a set. If one player is holding an Ace, I am 75% likely after 5, which is like 85% post flop, and if I am checked to, I definitely bet big post flop. Monkeying around with AA three handed is a recipe for disaster, and If I read my opponents right, one will bet on the flop, I will reraise all-in, and the third player will fold.

In other words, the guy in middle position with KK is in a FAR BETTER POSITION TO GET PAID IN A HUGE THREE WAY POT than then guy with AA in late position, played carefully. By carefully, I mean with finesse, not caution.

The key here is of course the likely prospect, in the event of a raise, I will be the one to close the pot preflop.

Now, If I have played my KK against Al this way, and I get no callers, of course, I have position on Al. Al, holding QQ, will bet on any flop without an A or K, trying to take the pot down without offer up a free card to get beat with. If Al didn't have QQ, or an A comes on, and he checks either way, I probably check back to persuade him I also found the flop distasteful. He probably bets on ANY OTHER CARD on the turn, and my trap is spring. Certainly, a check on an A high flop can indicate the under PP, or it can be a sneaky slow play (an Al specialty). It may very well be in that situation that I have paid so small a price to see my KK that I can be pushed off of it by the prospect of the A having me beat too.

In other words, my trap play here is actually safer than the raise, because I will rely upon good post flop play to determine my next move, and maximizes the potential for raking in a huge pot.

If you have JJ, protect it or fold it. KK is so big a hand, the risk/reward potential of a slowplay preflop is huge, and it is absolutely critical you disguise your strength effectively. Of course, when in doubt (i.e the flop offers straight or flush draws consistent with Al's likely holdings), you have an all in bet available post flop for that protection.

Okay....I've got you to the final table and beyond. I expect next blog will return to the final table, getting shorter, the money getting bigger.....

And the Lady of Luck is peeking at your cards....

The Legend of Al Part 3

Okay, I feel guilty for my blogging neglect, and its late and so this is just a teaser, its another Al story of course, since I busted out of the Monday game early and saved my best poker for the cash table, and this blog isn't about cash poker, its about tournament poker.

Anyway, I had the good sense to walk away from the cash table with a tidy 217% profit after 2 hours. I was getting tired, and the sng satellite I had bought into 2 hours before had finally filled, another game I care not to talk about tonight. Like I said saved my best poker for the cash table. I had peeked over to see what Al was up to from time to time, and the last time, I watched him rake in a nice fat pot, which he told me about later, calling two short stacks all in with 33 thinking they had each other's overcards, and being both right AQ and AK, and catching a set on the flop helped. A call I can't make by the way, unless I can afford to lose or have to win. 33 is just two damn small 3 handed, but his read was dead on....

This blog is not about that hand. It about Al's big laydown that never was.

We are 26 handed, Al has over 10,000 chips, blinds just turned 400/800/100 ante, I am within hearing distance when I hear Al make a raise to open the pot in early position to 1800, an almost immediate all-in from the next player, and, very, very quickly, just enough for 7 more players to fold without any hesitation, Al calls. Al will show QQ and lose the showdown.

And Al kicks himself with the quick call as he storms out,furious with himself.

I haven't told you what beat him. I am sure you can figure it out, but lets put all the clues together.

• Al has been at that table for 20 minutes and demonstrated both real poker savvy making a huge crazy call with 33 and his usual patience.
• The player to his right had just slightly over Al's stack, both an average stack at a table with bigger stacks yet to play, and his all-in appeared to be thoughtless, and his tone of voice clear and solid enough for me to hear clearly in a room full of clacking chips 20 feet away.

That really is the only clues you need: you deduce from these clues that:

• Al had a strong hand just from his preflop bet. He is a solid, veteran player capable of making knowing when 33 is good and just raised UTG a value raise that screams big hand.
• His opponent didn't care what Al had or what he did with his 1800 chip investment. That all in was for the whole table, and the whole table knew this was an action hand and who was getting involved and got out of the way.
• In other words, AJ shrinks to garbabe in the face of that action coming at it.

His opponent had KK. Some people will make the obvious reraise for action, some people just get damn excited that someone bet into their KK and spunk all over the dealer before she was even wet. Ugly, but accurate, analogy.

All Al needed to do here was offer himself 15 seconds to think it through, and he was kicking himself, not because he had married his two ladies for better or for worse, far from it, but because he played his hand and not the whole hand. Fatigue killed him earlier than last time because without chips, his preflop decisions were always simple, and now they were more complicated.

And Al does not marry any hand preflop or post flop. He once laid down KK to my AA because there was a draw on the board and I was trying to push out the donkey who'll play any draw for any price and protect my AA post flop. I was pretty overt about taking the pot down, but still, its a 10 high flop with 2 hearts. His preflop raise was designed specifically to keep him out of trouble should he get in it knowing that the 8200 remaining chips of his were monsterous compared to what he reached the final table with the week before.

Voice tone, body language, everything was there. Al's opponent either panics over KK busting all the time and protected or made a huge mistake being so overt about striking the motherload at the Twin Cowpoke Ranch. The rest of the table thought the showdown was inevitable, but Al knew it. Spidey sense. When that tingle comes like, maybe I'm in trouble here, pay attention.

Just as a comparison the other direction, playing no-limit pineapple over the weekend with the boys, I called blind a small raise in the BB and then get to wake up to see I flopped a straight on a 6 high board with 45. Having rraised Al's small bet to a pot sized one, Brian, a very good player on the more aggressive side of the spectrum, makes an outrageous overraise. I had bet 75 to win 75: he raises to 500 even and B and I both have 1200 chips: the original price to pay was 30. I immediately put Brian on a big overpair and raise him all in knowing he'll call, and he does, and I bust KK.

If I have ANY MESSAGE AT ALL its put that man on a hand!

The Lady of Luck told Al to look up! Stop staring at her tits, y'all, and see if she's laughing or crying for ya.

Enough with the sexual references. Poker ain't sexy folks.

Bigger blogs to come.

8.2 More Final Table Stories: two short stack strategies

Hello people! And Feedburner is showing me that new people keep coming in for a peek. Some of you seem to be even reading my special brand of poker bs. Why no comments? Send me comments! So much of this blog is simply me opening my mind to a review of big plays for my won benefit. In other words, blogging my take on these hands is helping my game. I would love to see how some of my readers played similar situations differently with more or less success.

Okay, since my last blog I have final tabled twice on-line, and I might as well go back to on-line play a bit, but the truth is the availability of live tourney play has significantly reduced my on-line playing. I thought I'd forgotten how to play on-line, but final table finishes in fields of over 300 in two tourneys at once is nice, and worth talking about. One is the $1 turbo rebuy, a hilarious nightly on-line game which I have won 10 times, and highly recommend playing. For cheap, you really get to hone your crisis time play, as, in spite of the 30 minute rebuy and add ons, that 20,000 in chips you might collect become an average stack 30 minutes later and in crisis 30 after that. Picking your spots is everything. The other final is the $25+2 bounty game, a nice tourney with decent players and nice payouts.

But this blog is not about me at all....

I mentioned Al's first MTT at the casino a couple of weeks ago. He came in 7th yesterday, and had come back from 1500 with 21 to go and blinds of 500/1500 to 33000 sitting at the final table. His rise...and fall...and our differences in crisis time playing strategies, shall be the primary topic.

I had busted out in the first hour after a short stack flush draw crippled me holding top pair top kicker. After THAT I got big hands and no action until I pushed with QK against a weak early minraise and AJ raced with me...I even caught my K....meh. So I played some $1/2 NLHE cash for a bit. I really still don't like cash. The pressure of a tournament means when I raise to $20 with AK with blinds of 1/2, 22 really can't make the call. In a cheap cash game, its why not? Its fun to be loosey goosey a bit without worrying about the blinds creeping up on your or what's left of your stack...but the static play is really tiresome.

Okay, last Monday after 4 hours of play, we are down to 23 people, the table is full of 6000-8000 chip holdings including me, with 300/600 blinds and the inevitable raise by me with AQ, call all in against someone I have covered and lose to 77, leaving with my starting stack of 2500 chips, a short table to contend with, and huge blinds.

Al will grind out to his last chip to reach the money, but hey, he's moving up in increments playing a new phenomenon. He's old school: he learned the game in beer halls, and owns a record player "hi fi" and NES video game system (No, not SUPER NES, not GAME CUBE, NES with all the fixins') He don't play on-line, because the NES don't do that. He just plays his game. Last week he bemoaned putting his last $100 chip in the pot, this week it was any ace UTG with only the big blind left... but I am ahead of myself a bit...

I am playing to win, even from the short stack. I am prepared to lose too, but I didn't wait too long. After paying off the blinds once, I have 1700 in chips and UTG. I don't even look. My chips go in blind.

All-in blind? WTF? Absolutely. I can't give off any tells because I don't know what I have. My opponents need a big stack or a big hand to call, because they cannot gauge relative strength. Sure 88 or better calls easily, but AJ? maybe, maybe not. There are no big stacks and thankfully no big hands, and the BB, feeling obligated to call, does so blind. My Q4 is ahead of his J3 and stays ahead, and I am alive for now. I pay off the blinds, and in late position (not button, too obvious) I push again, not blind, but with 68.

68? yup. Just praying for a steal or two live. I get the best of both. AK pushes the rest of the pot away, and I catch my 6. WOOO. back up to 5000 chips.

Okay, I'm back to a stack...sort of...and now its time to exploit this crazy new image.

A chance to steal again late is successful with 74, and the next hand I see A6.

Wow. A6.

fine. But we're 7 handed, I;m in cut off position, 3 have folded already, and now my 5000 chips can steal some more...or attract a loose call....and I get it.
QK calls, but flops a straight. End of the Monster. But it's pretty nice to see A high the favorite in any race which would have pushed me back to 10,000 and in the money, and a tight image there doesn't get the action I need to get back to a where I want to be to play the final 20.

Not the stylish poker PokerMonster prefers, but I played to win, knew where I stood, what I needed, and did what I could to try to get there. Obviously if I double there I settle down.

Okay, Al's story.

After losing all my money at the cash table with AK on a KQ2 flop because some donkey called 22 preflop on a 10x the blind bet in the cash table, I wandered over to watch Al.

Never rebuy in a cash table unless your strategy is to donk out the first stack, look like an idiot, and get action with the second...I was there to kill time and get a little experience, and the table crowd was both friendly and a bit weak: for example, when I raised to 15 UTG with AJ, and the quiet older Oriental man across the table who I had earlier see slow play QQ reraises me to a mere 30, I folded instantly in spite of the middle position caller, because I put him on KK trying to improve the pot size. It was just dead obvious, and I told my neighbour so when he expressed surprise at my fold. The other player called, and in spite of my two spades flop for the flush draw and A on the river, I was still happy with my laydown because KK bet like KK and 88 paid him off a damn big pot. Since the river was an A they both checked it and I got to confirm my read when he showed the KK and say I told you so to the guy beside me. With 3 in the pot, I either push on that nice flop knowing KK makes the call looking for my 40%, or get bet out hard by KK protecting himself from a drawing flop. The river may have been good, but I pay off like $100, 75% of my stack, getting there.

Blah Blah Blah.

Al is in the top 30 when I arrive, and has 4000 chips left, but the blinds are, predictably, 300/600, and I soon realize there is something wrong. I have played this tourney enough times to realize that the play is about 30 minutes behind where it should be. These guys are playing TIGHT, all 3 tables, and they will stay at about 30 FOR EVER. They are so tight, when Al finally has 1550 in chips left 2 levels later, we STILL HAVE 26 PLAYERS! Wow, that's like 80's rock star spandex tight.

And get this! Al has been so tight, in spite of the obvious necessity of Al's move, THE WHOLE TABLE PUTS HIM ON A HAND AND PLAY FOLDS TO THE BB! who has to call for 50 chips and chase his 67 to Al's A2 clubs. Al caught the flush draw on the flop, and stayed ahead adding 3850 to his nothing to make him able to afford to fold the next blinds. In fact, he gets a free pass on his BB too, which will become important.

This table is so tight there is one lady at the table who is all in every other hand. Some poor fool with a short stack still thinks he can limp in and not see a raise, so she steals. Eventually she gets crippled when QK sooted calls her 99 all in. To everyone's surprise, she had a legitimate hand, but the flush hit the turn, crippling her, and stacking up the "loose" caller. He will prove to be way too loose a caller, a tall, 20 something guy with too many weird earrings to present as a serious poker player...

And after a break, Al finds himself with 4100 chips, UTG, and holding AJ. Biggest hand Al has seen in hours, and naturally he's all in with 1000/2000 blinds staring him in the face. Pierced Man makes the call, and so does another ultratight short stack with 1100 chips (wow that's tight, same guy who thought he could limp in 1500 with 5000 left) Pierced Man as K10 diamonds. Mole Man has AK off. Nice to see the K is dead, putting Al way ahead of the loose call for the big side pot, and even better, a J hits the flop, killing both hands and tripling Al up (don't forget the blinds and antes are almost as much as what Al had left).

And suddenly, as the tightness dies to the huge blinds, it seems to take only a few minutes until 28 has become 14, and Al waits out until the final table with still short, but livable 12000 chips.

He doesn't draw well to start the final table, 4th position, but at least he has some fold equity, and, in fact, this appears to be a weak final table. People are raising with weak holdings in early position as if they are still six handed. One guy will make a bet of 5000 UTG holding A5 sooted, and looking weak-ass doing it, and be forced to fold to a big raise and call ahead when 88 (some kid with a stack who likes to rumble with any PP) and KK showdown, and quad 8's wins. This guy only had 20000 chips, he throws 5000 out weakly with a crap ace UTG at a new, full table of survivors? How does that guy make it to a final table? Al has plenty to exploit here. There is the young chinese kid who took 10 minutes in the tank to call the Pushing Girl's last chips with JJ (not that's tight!)...he takes forever to move on anything, and talks himself out of calls. There is the 30 something chubby white guy who gets excited and goes all in when he has a big hand (and he thinks AQ is a big hand). There is a 30 something shaved bald white guy who probably drives a Honda Element and outthinks himself on every hand, there's Pierced Guy, soon to be short stacked from too many loose calls, and there's Talk to Much Guy, the initial short stack, who will double up twice, but I played with him earlier and the only time this guy stops talking is when he has a big hand....

And Al gets a SB special soon when a 7000 early raise comes a-knocking and Al wakes up with KK...and his 3600 more all in has to be called with 77...soon after, all puts his 24000 in when Element guy spends 5 minutes deciding to limp in his 66 in early position....and Short Stack Al now has 33000 chips, very healthy, and, suddenly, he can play poker again....

Alas, it's almost as if he forgot how. Its midnight, Al has played 5 hours of poker in his second only MTT, and he's exhausted. Now he makes a weak 3x blind raise UTG, and I think, oh its Al, he's setting up a monster here, and the rest of the table believes it too, except for the obvious guy who comes in all in (he had exploited Pierced Guy betting into a dry pot in an obvious check down situation when a Q hit the turn, and Obvious Guy got pissed off and moved all in with his AQ. So Obvious Guy has a huge stack, and Al did not have a monster. Al made the same mistake as everyone else, and had to fold.

Al is exhausted. All will make a critical mistake two hands later, thinking it is only 6000 to call from an early minraise from the SB with 66. The little guy who pushes with any PP had raised to 20000, and Al, dead tired and looking down with his cap over his eyes, didn't see the raise, so he said call and had to call 20000, 80% of his stack. Al being Al, he folds to two over cards on the flop, and has enough chips to see one more bust out before finding his way into 7th. With A2. Against AQ and AQ hearts. HE actually caught his two on a very low flop, but AQ hearts (obvious guy, no capitals) won a freeroll runner runner heart flush against the Little Pusher, and
merciful Lady Luck tells Al to go home.

Al was happy. He is now a Monday regular. Cool. I wish I could have tagged off once he got big stacked. Al knew how to play this table too, but I was fresh. I could have slaughtered this weak field with 33,000 in chips with 8 left. He won't need the help next time. I will.

Enough poker for tonight. I made my $20 10 man sng and came in 6th playing an omaha tourney. I edit and sign off.

The Lady of Luck is always good to go. She'll wear ya right out.

Git-r-done next time Al!

Interlude: big tells and big reads

Okay okay, PM's been a little lazy with the blogging. Saturday was a grind...5 hours later I had the same chip stack I started with. I couldn't generate action. I was making amazing reads....but who cares if you're not in the pot. Without cards, my poker wits were wasted.

But lets talk about a few of those reads, including a few big laydowns.

Here's two big laydowns, both absolutely correct, one from Saturday, the other from Monday.

Let's set up the Saturday story with another hand with the same player. His actions in this hand may well have arisen from how he played me on a prior hand.

This fellow is a reasonable player, who is 2 seats to my right, so I often have position on him. In early position, with blinds 150/300, he makes a standard 3x raise, 900, and I, with 88, make the call. We both have give or take 10,000 chips. The rest of the field folds, and we see a flop of Q 9 4 two spades.

Our man makes a weak stab at the pot of 1000. He sounds weak. I feel weakness and make a call quickly.

Now why did I "feel" weakness"? There is over 2000 in the pot, a flush draw on the board, and his bet is barely over his raise. This is a guy trying not to lose too much. He missed the board. I am thinking AK.

The next card is another 9. He checks and I check back. Obviously, my smooth call must alert him to a possible draw. The reality is I am floating a bit, waiting for the weakness to be clear. He does not protect his hand from a draw on the turn: he has no hand to protect. There is no way he has a Q from the flop and no way he has a 9.

The river is a garbage small card, and he checks again. 3000 of my chips come out quickly. He tanks for 30 seconds, but we both knew he was beat with AK. He didn't show and neither did I.

Assuming he had AK, I don't like his opening bet. I treat AK early similarly to a small PP. I raise it 4x to 5x, depending on where I stand at the table. I am out of position, and I don't want to play AK there. The continuation bet which becomes obligatory is often disasterous. With a big bet, I am daring someone to make a move, and it is much easier to simply play AK in a race out of position.

I had outplayed a few people in pots up to that point, so the natural tendency of the table was to stay out of pots with me. Unfortunately, I ran into two people I knew at my second table on Monday, one of whom I had busted at the Donkey table 2 weeks ago, so discussions of my taking Donkey out and coming in 2nd followed. Again dry action, but it permitted a lot of steals when that was all I wanted.

Okay, back to Saturday. A few hands later, I am now first to act with JJ and raise to 1200 (4x): again I am protecting JJ by making the more substantive bet. Another player in middle position reraises me to 2500. I am suspicious of this play, and inclined to play a pot with him. But AK man comes roaring out of the BB with 12000 all in. The old adage applies here: a raise and a reraise and you're up against KK or AA. The bottom line is, I am hardly pot committed, and not prepared to chase a set of jacks. I fold, but the original raiser calls, and shows down his 10 10 to KK. KK was very aggressive coming in, like a freight train. It was obvious to me he had a big hand. 10 10 simply had no clue where he stood in the hand, and lost most of his chips.

This player didn't want a 3 way pot and didn't want me outplaying him with position, so his all in raise got what he wanted.

Very similarly, on Monday, with blinds at 100/200, I come in early with AQ betting 650 from my stack of 7000. It is folded down to a man in late position. He's got this look on his face, like he's gonna make a play on my raise, but he only doubles up to 1300. I am more than suspicious: with modest blinds, this minraise is designed to get me heads up but continue the action. I have no doubt I am up against KK, and intend to fold, but, the BB, the fellow I had busted with the 10 10 in the Donkey game has the same, "what play should I make here?" look on his face, and makes the call. I am dead certain I am against two big hands here, but for 650 into a pot of 2350 I make the call, really expecting that I will only win if I flop huge, like two more Q's.

The flop is Q 10 8 two hearts, and the BB goes all in very quickly for 5000 more. I tank, but only briefly, and think aloud: straight draw on board, flush draw on board, (I have AQ, I think silently, there isn't another, and this cat is protecting his hand), you must have the KK ( a bit of deception, as I KNOW my raiser has KK) and fold. the raiser, with KK, makes the call, and doubles the BB with AA.

That was the easiest laydown of my life. If BB didn't have me beat, KK did. But KK never figured out where he was. Let's face it, KK can't lay down this flop, but maybe he should. A set could have been protecting itself here too. I'm not sure QK makes that move from that position, a bet but not all in. With AA, we all have a tendency to enter protection mode when the flop is scary, and the usual move is all in. KK the same way. Had KK been listening, he might have clued in that I had hit the flop from my tanking and talking, and AQ was my most likely hand, meaning the all in was not likely AQ.

But could you lay KK down there? Online, no way: even though KK seems to attract AA or an A high flop a little too much...but this guy had a lot of information. BB's all in was not exactly timid. It was a "this is my pot" all-in suggestive of strength in need of protection. There is a story in Phil Gordon about how he laid down KK when Mike Matusow bet into him with QQ and Phil Hellmuth (funny I keep spelling it Hellmouth) reraised all in with AA at a final table, but Hellmuth played that wrong. Get some action Phil, and stop playing small games for your 11th bracelet and beat a few pros. BB played his AA way better, and only one of two suckers figured him out (it helped that I had the lock on the man with KK which made my move so easy).

I have been having that "lock" since Saturday. A couple of examples from Saturday:

The player to my left is a good player, but he talks too much. He has reasonable experience, and picked up a few pots. The player to my right has lost a couple, and is down to maybe 8000. The blinds are 75/150, and Talks Too Much (TTM) raises in early position, and the only caller is Lost Too Much (LTM) in the BB.

The flop is 5 6 2 rainbow. LTM checks. TTM bets 1200. LTM check-raises to 2500 and TTM makes the call.

The turn is an 8, and LTM puts the rest of his chips in, about 4500, without hesitation. TTM now goes into the tank. FOR A LONG TIME. He can't put LTM on a hand, and is thinking aloud. At one point he almost asks me for advice, and I get a peek at one his cards, and I'm pretty sure I see the Q of clubs. I tell him he ain't getting any help. I have them both on a hand at this point...

Do you? Lets go into the tank with TTM and figure it out. Maybe read back a blog or two. I talked about this scenario. What does a raiser often do when checked-to post flop? Continuation bet. What does a player out of position do when the flop is low and the man he puts on AK or AQ appears to have bet into a flop he missed? Check raise if he has a piece of the flop. In this case, however, we have a raised pot, so its not like he protected his hand with A6 here. LTM has a small PP. In fact, I have him on 77 at this point.

Why 77? Why not a set? Because LTM is playing back at TTM like TTM has two big cards to beat him with. He saved just enough chips to make a big turn bet to take down the pot. AQ has to fold here. With that read, a set is pretty safe. See what a river trap gets you.

Which is why TTM does not have AQ. He thinks LTM caught a set on him. TTM has QQ. (I got a hint of course)

77 looks like its in great shape with the additional straight draw from the 8 which could not have helped his opponent.

I don't know if TTM figured it out too, but EVENTUALLY makes the call...with QQ....and sees 77. The river doesn't help and LTM is gone.

Compare LTM's play against mine with the 88. Certainly, LTM was out of position, but he used the check raise well to get the information he thought he needed. The "just call", in my view, was not deception on TTM's part. The check raise confused him, and his call was a quick reaction, but LTM misinterpreted this confusion as TTM getting good odds to play "chase the ace", and the turn made him feel 77 was the best hand.

LTM only used post flop information to figure his opponent out. I used the whole board to get comfortable with 88 being the best hand. The overcards were not that appreciable a difference in my thinking. When in doubt with a small PP post flop, fold it. If you can make these reads with confidence, bet with equal confidence. Be prepared to be wrong until you start getting it right. You will see the patterns of what happened when you thought 77 was good and was wrong, and your gut will tell you when it is happening again. Eventually.

Yesterday, early in the game, blinds 25/50, an UTG limper who looks and acts like Ron Howard, we'll call him Opie, and the BB both call a modest button raise of 150. With 500 in the pot, and a flop of 2 8 9 two clubs, BB makes a bet of 700, and Opie beats him to the pot all in. The button immediately folds, and we at the other end of the table whisper to ourselves about Opie's obvious set. He is just so excited! BB tanks for a bit, but eventually calls and turns over 10 10. Opie will reveal 99.

Opie played this real silly but got paid anyway. You will get this excited too until you get a little experience under your belts. I doubled up a few hands later slow playing A8 on a 10 8 8 board against an aggressive player. I got excited when he check raised me all in on a 2 turn card, and then showed me 33, but kept clam up to then. Actually, this move was a nice set up for this guy t0 get action when he got some real premium hands....but back to Opie. The original raiser was trying to push out the straight and flush draws, Mayberry Brain. Sucker him into thinking you're on one. But Gosh Paw, I'd a flopped me a whole bunch a nines! I feel sorry for his girlfriend: Boobs! I'm so excited! Um, let me get a sponge.... The analogy between the slow play and the slow hand is pretty strong, I'd say....

Last hand to talk about.

We are late in the Saturday tourney, blinds at 300/600/75 ante, and there is a new chip stack who has just sat down. He has lots of chips. I am jealous. I was at the tight table.

A player whom I'd been playing with since table one, a nice guy, limps in, and play folds to the New Sheriff. New Sheriff? New thief. He raises to 3000. Nice Guy knows this is a steal, but Nice Guy's reaction reveals his hand. He re-raises, to 6000. My immediate thought is 10 10. New Sheriff makes the call. I get the impression New Sheriff likes to float and steal post flop.

The flop is 4 10 Q and Nice Guy bets 6000. This is a typical play for Nice Guy. New Sheriff appears hesitant and makes the call. The turn is another Q, and Nice Guy makes a play I don't like (given that I know what he has) and attempts a value bet of 6000 again. New Sheriff figures him out, and Nice Guy shows his 10 10. No duh, nice guy!

Nice Guy could have EASILY slowed down on that turn card and let New Sheriff make his move on the float, representing the Q. These are the plays you gotta make! Big stack, new to table, big pot, you have a full house....let him take a stab at it or catch up! Nice Guy had a nice stack after that, and New Sherriff never stole again (I reraised him all in once from the BB on a steal attempt), but Nice Guy might have become New Sheriff Big Gun at a nice time (40 people left) if he had been a sneaky little bastard like the Poker Monster....

Okay, I've been promising more final table action, but I'm not sure my audience is quite ready....
maybe after tomorrow's tourney, we'll see if I can go top 3 4 weeks in a row....

The Lady of Luck owes me some big cards tomorrow.....

...

Chapter 8.1 Final table "obligatory" calls and raises

Okay, you have a big stack, or a small stack, you're in the BB, and a short stack has put all his chips in. Lets say the blinds are 1500/3000 with 400 ante 8 handed, the raise is to 9000, and play folds to you, putting a total of 16700 in the pot, including your obligatory investment of 3000. It is 6000 to call, knowing its a heads up showdown.

Assuming the raiser did not have a PP, any two random cards you are holding will be at least 30% to win and to call is adding 35% to the pot. The combination of pot odds and implied odds (to knock out a player and go up to the next prize level) typically makes this call obligatory, but it should still be thought out.

Obviously, less thought is involved when you have 100,000 chips, but if you have 25,000 plus the BB invested lets work this out. If I am 70% likely to lose, I will be in the SB next hand with 17,100 chips left and 1900 invested (SB + ante) Maybe the blinds will be up in three hands to 2000/4000/500 ante. By folding, I guarantee that the original raiser moves from 9000 to 16700, and by calling, I am more than likely moving him to 22,700. Let's say he made his move from position 5, meaning the level will go up in his BB in three hands. Assuming he can't push again, the next 4 hands will pull 4 antes, two at 500, a BB and and a SB from his tiny stack, 7800 chips to put our small stack BACK TO THAT ORIGINAL 9000.

In other words, if you fold, the raiser has only bought 5 hands worth of time, but if you call and lose, you are one round away from being in the same spot as he. Those 6000 chips you are putting in the pot represent the next level's SB and BB investment, and lets not forget the high price of the antes.

Add to this is the fact that the small stack found something to push with. He is so small he can have anything from AA on down, but he has something. Maybe its A4, which affords you the best odds with your random two cards, which effectively is Q7 on average. If neither hand is sooted, you are in fact 40% to win, but that is the best of it.

On the other hand, if you are holding one of many marginal but playable hands, odds improve. 89 sooted, for example, is almost dead on a coin flip against merely A high, but loses 8% against your opponent if he has 2 overcards like A10. Even higher sooted connectors like JQ may help avoid the overcards but are the same odds to win otherwise.

A sooted connector is therefore quite a solid call in this situation.

For reasons discussed recently when I first spoke of shorthanded play, obviously a PP will likely provide good reason to call, keeping in mind that the bigger the table is, the more likely 2 overcards, if truly live, will beat you in a showdown, so 33 remains a tough call if you are 10 or 8 handed, but is an easy call at a shorter table.

Again, it helps to try to put shortstack on a hand. If you know how he became a shortstack, it helps:

• Has he been a patient survivalist who seems to be always on the short stack but impossible to kill? While this may be his last gasp, he probably has found something to push with. Expect a middle PP or reasonable Ace. Given that he has a few more hands to wait, A4 may be something he would fold knowing he didn't have the chips to steal with against the rest of the table. Last Monday, the exact same scenario occurred,4000 more against 1000/2000 blinds, but our BB only had 15,000 left if he made the call. He couldn't give up the pot and had 79 spades, hand almost as strong as sooted connectors, but the pusher had 10 10.
• Has he just lost a big pot? he may be on tilt, or simply giving up and going home. Your random cards could well be tje favorite with even Q high.

The last thing you want to do here is give a desperate player even more life while reversing your personal positions.

If I have a big stack, pot and implied odds affect my "obligatory" call situations more. Now the question is how likely do I want to double someone up. Some players are more dangerous than others. A former chip leader who is now a short stack is better kept small, limiting his skills to preflop decisions. A player who has not demonstrated particular creativity or skill might just be a player you want to keep alive now. Just don't let this player in on why you made such a loose call. You are hoping he will get lucky and cripple or knock out better players so you can outplay him later when he has a big stack but doesn't know how to play shorthanded well.

This is because short handed play is a dramatic change from early final table play where the action slows down, and you will be able to steal blinds and small pots from a player who doesn't know when his middle pair is good.

The same player who made the short stacked call with 97 against 10 10 made another mistake within a few hands of this. With the button, he tried to make a steal with K4 sooted, but the BB only had 2 times the big blind left. The BB really had few options to call with Q6. K4 may be the favorite here, but the purpose of a steal is to successfully steal, not showdown trash against trash. The BB won the trash fight, and our "obligatory caller" lost more chips.

In the very first live tourney I played, I had folded UTG when the very short stack in the BB hemmed and hawed over a raise and re-raise into his BB. He had very little folding equity left in his meager stack, and eventually folded while 10 10 and AQ showed down.

The BB, in spite of the board, then commented that he should have called with 27 because he was being offered the pot odds to triple up. Indeed, the pot was huge, he had 4000 only to throw in, and he could have used a triple plus from 7000 to 23,000, but this guy argued with me when I criticised his thinking. This was a $500+50 game with 500 people, and a significant percentage of them were experienced players. These two players pushed against the BB because they had hands that did not fear the BB's cards. Paricularly a raise and re-raise, when you as BB are almost pot committed, should make it pretty clear that it may be a cheap call for you but you are nearly dead going in. The odds computer puts that at 10% that somehow 27 will suckout 2 pair a set, or the best 4 flush or 4 straight.

As a result, if I am in the SB and the BB is very shortstacked, play often folds to me. Unless I have one of my many raising hands (mixed paint, PP, A high) I won't go near the BB unless he is so short that only a tiny amount of chips are risked chasing trash v. trash.

On the other hand, two weeks ago, after I had laid down against the very short BB from the SB, and explaining why I did to the BB, I, still with the huge stack, was folded to on the button with 55 with 2 short stacks in the blinds. I did not hesitate to put them both all in, and got one caller with KJ. JK happened to catch, but my risk was small, and the raise against them would have either robbed two shorties of their blinds or potentially knocked them out.

The other "obligatory call" situation occurs when a short )(but not critically small) stack comes raising to you with a very big stack and you have a medium strength hand like AJ. Because it is an apparent showdown hand, it is difficult to lay this hand down here knowing you will be heads up to knock out a short stack. The unfortunate flip side is that the player, who was not desperate, usually has a hand that AJ will be in trouble with.

Again, a choice between a cheap call which may very well double up a player vs. the consideration of keeping that player short is the best consideration for the call. You may be folding the best hand, or a dominant hand, but the prospect of giving a short stack the renewed life of a medium stack where the player will be able to play post flop may be giving up a tactical advantage. Putting your opponent on a hand is the key here. AJ is not an automatic call. Do a little talking or counting or whatever and try to get a read. Same thing with any PP 77 or less. 88 for reasons given earlier may very well be a reasonable call in many of these situations, but only JJ or higher are truly automatic calls.

Chapter 8: early final table strategy

Hello, and welcome to the Main Event. Perhaps the entire internet is watching.

Five or six hours of grinding, trapping, stealing, and donking later, you have made it to the place where each knockout means more and more money to reward you for your investment in sweat, grit, and synaptic pulses.

It does not matter how you got there. It may matter where your stack is at. I have two weeks of recent stories from the monster stack and the average stack, but let's start at the bottom.

If your stack is so small the blinds and antes will kill you in ten hands, strategy is simple and has everything to do with where the button lands relative to your seat.

If you start UTG you really only have 2 hands to make a decision, this one and the BB, and if you have a reasonable starting hand, pushing all in may at least be enough the limit the field and pray for a suckout. The problem is we are now ten handed and the prospect of a real hand coming in and raising and isolating or 3 players calling and checking you down means even AA is in trouble here. Good luck.

If you are fortunate enough to start in decent position, you have time. Most importantly, you may have time for another short stack to push and get busted. Given that 10th is often just a little over the buy in, and 8th is double that, finding a way to simply survive while other players die means something. And not necessarily small stacks will die. Story on point will follow. Obviously you will likely put your chips in if any PP or mixed paint arrive. If you can, following the standard hands for stealing/raising is ideal. Maybe just anteing out is the best strategy. You should know the players by now. Naturally aggressive players may prove your best ally here.

If you do get lucky and chip up in a hand, chances are good you are close to 3x your final table starting stack or more as a result, thanks to blinds and antes and that guy who isolated with 77. You have now bought yourself a little more time. Pick that next spot well.

Story time kids, gather round.

I always seem to have a knack for a big hand very early at a final table. Last three games it was AK, AA, and JJ.

In the first of these, my average stack of 22000 got pushed all in in very early position, and the player who called, who had not played with me before, assumed desperation due to the size of the bet and position and called with AQ. The double up would have made me a player, except KK got busted to knock me back down to 30,000 on the very next hand. I still grinded to 3rd although I never had a significant stack.

Game 2, the Donkey-fed monster stack found AA in the BB after the shortest stack went all in UTG and the table folded to me. If you recall, Donkey had blown the rest of his 36ooo chips racing his K8 against my QQ to hit the bricks in 11th. Short stack found not one but two 3s to suck out. It was only 7000 chips against my huge stack, but that more than double was parlayed to 4th, and at one point 5 handed that short stack had 60,000 chips. If fate smiles, ride the smile.

Game 3, I picked up 7th position and Donkey Kong Jr., the loose aggressive player who doubled me up to get the there in my last blog, raised first hand UTG. The play folds to me and all my chips come in with JJ. DKJr. still has a stack of 45,000 if he folds, and he makes a comment like he knows he's beat, and makes the call anyway with A9. JJ holds up. DKJr. will tilt up next hand and throw the rest in and bust out in 10th. Way to make the adjustment.

To continue the theme, the very next hand the short stack who is now UTG puts his remaining 10,ooo chips in and I wake up with JJ again. I go all-in to protect it, and his A10 picks up a full house.

Welcome to the final table! Best roller coaster in town.

Back to basics.

One thing about the final table is that suddenly you are face to face with 5 players whom you have never played against before, and one or two have huge stacks of chips. Obviously, with a monster stack myself, I can afford to be patient to get a feel for the new players. This past Monday, I needed more information. With only 22,000 chips and blinds of 1000/2000, I wouldn't have the time.

The process of moving the players and assigning seats takes a little time, and we happened to be at a break time, so we had some time to chat before play got started.

There are two big stacks who are new to me, but they are no mystery. The one seated two seats left is older, long haired, quiet, relaxed. His demeanour tells me he is comfortable at a final table. This is an experienced player, and I bet he earned his chips. His name was Kirby, and I respect his game, so no nicknames for Kirby. Al thinks he's seen Kirby on TV playing before. Most likely a Canadian Poker Tour event (major hint: PokerMonster is Canadian: all the big games I have described are CPT events, and I am very impressed by both their regularity, and the quality of players they attract)

Big stack #2 is two seats right. He is a big, 30 something Lebanese guy wearing an ethnic skull cap and talking with a street demeanour. He feels the need to share his past victories at the table. I tell him that I was #2 last week and aim to improve. I offer to shake his hand and wish him luck heads up...he seems a little put off by my return volley of trash talk. I have my tell. Lets call him Fezman (he's not wearing a Fez, but Fezman sounds funny).

Incidentally DKJr. decides he needs to announce that this is his 5th final table. I tell him its mine too (although the Pokerdb shows me at 77 top 10 finishes in the last year online, but who's counting). He seems to get a little shy on my response.

Kirby never pipes up during the trash talk. My read is confirmed. He is sucking in the information and offering none. He's a playa.

Okay, basic early tourney strategy is simple. As much patience as you can afford while the table is large and while the short stacks are fighting for their lives. With a big stack, I may be calling or pushing against some short stacks with playable hands AJ or better, 66 or better which could very well be coinflips, as long as my risk is small and I don't find a raiser coming after me for more. A more modest stack requires more action.

This Monday I have already gone up and back down a bit once. The general tightness of the table is my advantage here. Fezman has shown a propensity to just limp in a lot. I tend to stay out of his way early, because he invites raises and usually makes the calls. He really likes small PPs. This is not desirable action for me. Thankfully, I usually have position on Fezman, and Kirby is not the loose aggressive type. He is no hurry. He also has listened to my table talk and recognized my confidence is connected to experience and ability as well. When he raises, he has a raising hand. When I raise, I do to. I have demonstrated that in the first three hands. Kirby and I tend to stay out of each other's way. I am usually doing all in in front of him to target small stacks in the blinds to his left. He knows enough to know I have the goods to showdown my targets.

Fez in fact won a huge pot limping in AJ when Young Rock, still tight as ever, moved all in with 45,000 chips and AK. Fez made the call without thought while we were still 8 handed. YR knew who to target, but Fez sucked out two J's (sound familiar? My play was desperate, Fez's was just ignorant. Respect the quiet guy with the healthy stack who you haven't played with, Fez). In the end, this suckout will be very beneficial, having knocked out a dangerous player to chip up player who will ultimately distribute those chips elsewhere.

Fez had AA early and in early position and went all in to no callers, and then showed and commented his desire to protect it. He then said he might regret not attracting some action. He will prove to be a prophet.

Unlike Fezman, I never limp a hand this early at a final table. If I want to play a hand, I want to represent strength so a short stack is not invited to steal. Most of my play, in fact, is all in where a short stack is in the BB. The short stack respects the raise, and I show AQ to confirm I had a showdown hand. I want to just steal and maintain and target short stacks at this point.

Lets demonstrate one big pot Fezman probably shouldn't have been in.

Let me add that Fezman, who truly had a monster stack, has recently doubled Kirby when he limps in K3 sooted and Kirby makes the call with position. K-10-Q is the flop, and Kirby just calls an initial moderate bet. Turn is nothing and they go check check. River is an A and Fez moves all in. Kirby was slowplaying K10 and doubles.

Fezman again is the first to act and again limps in for 4000. Kirby has the button and raises to 15000. The BB, a lady with a real survival knack moves all her chips in for 18,000: and, conceivably, her read is right: Fez has any hand, Kirby has decided to steal, and she has AQ.

This is my first example of a controversial but universally-applied rule. Kirby's raise of 11,000 requires a legal reraise of at least 11,000 more, for a total of 26,000, but Survival Girl can't make a legal raise: the rule is that no player can reraise over her bet, they can only fold or call.

Fez should have folded, but implied odds and the prospect of knocking out player 7 and the rule induced the call: indeed, Kirby would have gone all in here if he could, and perhaps his 15000 bet was a small mistake on his part for having invoked the rule.

Flop is K 10 9 all diamonds. Fezman checks, and clearly expected Kirby to continue a check down, but Kirby does all in.

Suddenly, Fezman realizes he is down to less than 30 K and that he is bit off more than he can chew. They all show their hands (Fez should also have mucked) His 88 one diamond was currently beat to Kirby's set of 10's. SG has the Q of diamonds but cant catch her J or diamond.

This is a critical example of why NOT to check down. Fezman had flopped huge and was still 24% to get beat with 2 cards to go. I discussed sets against flush draws much earlier in the MONSTER DRAW blogs: a simple reminder: a pair on the board is not all that infrequent and will bust the flush. The possibility that Fezman will get his diamond and move chips will come in creates a need to protect the rest of Kirby's stack, and if SG can still beat a set of 10's she was meant to win and survive yet again. That set is both way too strong and way too vulnerable not to protect it. Add the prospect of keeping Fezman from a monster pot to get back in this, and the move is very, very sound poker.

Now Kirby has, like, all the chips, I am in second with 85,000 and what is left is short. Fez will eventually lose to me in 4th when he limps in with K6 sooted, and I compel the rest of his 30,000 when I push with A10. And no, A10 is not a good pushing hand, but it is against Fez, who never seems to have a sense of where he stands at the table or in a hand. There was an element of surrender to his call.

Other than my AA suckout, very little to tell from my adventures with the big stack from the week before in early play. Had mostly folding hands, and no one wanted to play against me, so I stole a little and waited for the table to thin out. The only bust out of note is when everyone folded to my BB except the SB, who just completes the minbet. I have A10 and push his last 8,0o00 in, and he calls, as if he was trapping, with KJ. Obviously another time to raise with A10 arises here.

Okay, I have a movie I want to watch. So much for early final table play. With the short stacks done, and the table short, its time to loosen up. Next blog.

The Lady of Luck will, eventually, double us all.

Chapter VII and a half, plus one: Road to the Final Table: Short Stacks and Suckout Artists (continued)

Ding Ding! Tourney players, please take your seats....

Okay, I chipped up, I chipped down, I chip all around, my now 6000 stack eventually enters the final 40, and our table is busted up. I wind up 2 seats the left of my friend Al, a very good poker player who I invited to join me. This is his first MTT, but he has 20 years beer-hall poker experience on me. He is surprisingly wound-up, but his stack is similar to mine. He has been grinding, and earned every chip. His table seems a bit scared of him. Al thinks this particular tourney has about 10% real players in it, and he's probably right.

Let me comment very briefly on Al and his first MTT. Al is mad at me for trying to play host and give him a heads up on where he was at in the game. He didn't want any sense of being a rookie. I was too talky and helpful, and his head was full of the game. This is pretty much how I was my first live MTT, but I had forgotten how intense the first MTT experience is. Very busy head, very in the game, very wound up. There are a lot of variables in live play to consider which you get shortcuts for online, like pot size and stack size which you have to figure out by sight (although you have seen me ask for a chip count many times to obtain further information), along with all the visual clues to get tells and make reads on players. The brain needs to be trained for live play with strangers, and anyone's first day at an MTT is a lot like the first day at a difficult new job. The brain fills to overflowing, and fatigue and stress buildup. 20 live MTTs or so later, the brain is trained, and I can play my game. In particular, 6 hour stints in larger, more expensive MTT's have given me the mental stamina to play 6 or more hours in these little weekly games, a significant contributing factor in my recent final table play. Yes we'll get to that eventually. Let's get you all there first.

I put a read on the players at the new table pretty quickly. There is an attractive woman in her late 20's who clearly is playing a solid, predictable, but smart game of raising with raising hands and playing post flop. She busts an all-in player who bet into her AQ on a Q high flop. Al tells me the K9 player who overplayed middle pair had had only one move: all in. The lady immediately to my right has gone all in preflop, usually to open the pot, about 4 times in 20 hands. There is a 20 something kid who likes to see flops. Lets call him Donkey Kong Jr. I will talk about him in a bit.

Blinds are 300/600 with 75 ante and 6000 chips is not a happy state with blinds that big. I have been forced to give up some blinds, and about 25 hands later, I have 4000 chips in the BB. Pretty Lady has opened the pot early with 1400. Pretty Lady has a hand.

Play folds to All-In Lady. You will never guess. She went all in.

I have AJ diamonds in the BB. I have All-In Lady covered by maybe 500 chips and Pretty Lady has me well stacked. I curse aloud, a raise and a re-raise and I wake up with a hand. I am short stacked, I am behind at least one of these players, my friend Al may very well outlast me here, and I see AJ sooted.

I do not advocate making this play in a 10 handed table for any reason with anything less than a good PP. 10 10 will do nicely. AJ? I'm all-in. I have put PL on a good hand, AIL on a steal.

Pretty Lady has easily enough chips to make the call, and does. She shows 10 10. All-In Lady shows AK off. How embarrassing. I smell a J coming?

I see a J on the window....and the spread is ....omg....a second J. Fate or dumb luck....for all my advice in prior blogs on when and with what to push, necessity is reality. Expect to pick up your jacket and walk out folks throwing AJ into a 3-handed pot, not rake in 12,000 in fresh chippies.

Okay, so I have exposed my loose and lucky side. Last game, I was a mountain of strong play exploiting a deep and loose stack. This one, I gamble. I had to make this move. I didn't want to.

Enough excuses. Al the Rock exploits a new player at the table in the BB when he raises 2000 of his remaining 4000 in early position and the BB raises all in. All rides his AA to a double up against AJ, and I begin to see some hope for us both limping to the final.

There's too good reasons to dump AJ. Early position raiser who has been very patient is pot committed? I fold. If I am new to the table, only a very deep stack moves in. The New Gal was not deep.

I know I and Al both need more chips though. Another double will do. Hmm.....who wants to double up the Monster?

Enter.....Donkey Kong ....er...Jr.

I actually like Donkey Kong Jr.'s game. He is a preflop calling station who plays well post flop,often out of position. Any raise which isn't outrageous is likely to find DKJr. calling to see a flop and try to outplay you. He made a very nice pot calling a raise of 2500, putting 3 in the pot on a 689, two diamond flop, and calling A7 diamonds all in post flop with Q9 off.

This is, of course, a monster draw. 9 diamonds, 6 more 5s and 10s, and 3 aces to 2 nines and 3 queens, which can only bust the A catch. Lets call that 16 NET OUTS or (rough math) a whopping 65% favorite with 2 cards to go. Nice draw. No luck.

So Donkey Kong Jr is chipped up and I will soon learn not to bother stealing with A9 into his blinds. I need a new strategy. DKJr's strength is post flop, his weakness is preflop. A typical loose-aggressive style, but his game is unrefined. He is greedy. He doesn't know when to say when. He has 50,000 chips plus, we are down to 14 handed, there is only one other big stack at the table, with the exact opposite style, a Young Rock with a knack for pulling all-ins into his monsters who hasn't played a hand since he last won a huge pot holding AA, other than limp ins from the button with an ace in hand. Young Rock knows he has the chips to play the final and can let all these small stacks eat each other while picking his nose into the money.

DKJr. just can't slow down, so I set him up. He is 4 hands to my left, so I have position on him when he is in the blinds and he is in early position when I am in the blinds. This is a good situation, I have relative safety.

When play folds to me in the SB, I know the older Chinese gentleman in the BB to my left is an advocate of proper poker: he keeps complaining about DKJr's loose play and pretty much acts like he's the Professor of Poker. I can put a play on this fellow, and, with 27 off suit, I raise the 1000 blind to 3500 of my 9,000, and he has to fold. I have to show, and chuckle that I couldn't resist the move, which was true, but the show is calculated. It wasn't for Professor P to see, it was for DKJr.

2 hands later, after DKJr. folds UTG, I make another stealing raise from the cutoff, although I had a reasonable hand to play too. I take down the blinds and antes and show nothing.

The very next hand DKJr. is in the BB, and play folds to me. I have AJ. And I know exactly how to play it. I go all-in, and tell my fine fellow Prof. Poker that this seems to be the only way to get DKJr. to fold a hand, because he'll call anything less.

DKJr. has a lot of chips, and my 12000 ain't that big a deal. My man is set up. He thinks this is a steal. He calls with A2.

A2! Naturally, I hold up, a miracle, really, and I am able to eventually carry 24000 chips, an average stack, to the final table.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you AJ, when, and how, to push with it, and when not to. Oh, and NEVER CALL ANYTHING with A2. You are at best the slightest favorite against any two random hands and no better than 30% against ANY PP or ANY ACE OVER A7 (lower and you can add about a 20% split factor if the board plays higher cards to the kickers). Heads up, I may raise with it, but no way I call with it unless my opponent is on life support; and then maybe not simply because it can pay heads up to keep an opponent's small until he finally steps into a real hand, but I am WAY ahead of myself.

Poor, poor Al. I was hoping he would find a double up with DKJr. too. He blinded and anted himself out on the bubble. 11th. No money. And he will curse me later for putting his last 100 chips in just so he had a chance to win the antes and see 3 more hands. That guy knew where he stood skill level and showed me a competitiveness I hadn't seen before. I'm scared. I may have created another Monster.

Al did great, and is just as savvy a player to target DKJr for a double-up too. He just didn't get the same opportunity. He will be back.

Are you itching for it? Final Table really is next blog. Maybe I'll have 3 to talk about. I;m freerolling into the $100 game tomorrow as a final tune up for Saturday's Big Event.

The Lady of Luck loves us all equally. Night all.