The Rise and Fall of Al part 3.1: oufoxing the Grey Fox

In recent blogs (okay, sporadic blogs of relatively recent vintage), and especially the last blog, I have discussed playing so obviously with KK that a sophisticated player like Al or the Monster will put you on your hand and deprive you of action. I am certain that it is only fatigue that prevented Al from getting away from his two lovely ladies last night.

The two obvious plays were the obvious look on one's face, pause in face of a raise, and calculated nominal re-raise, and the "I don't care what the raiser has" instant all-in.

I have, many times, taken KK in mid position, in the face of an early raise, and trapped with it to obtain a a huge three-way pot which triples me up late in a tourney and turns me into a Top 5 chip leader and table captain.

Lets put ourselves in the shoes of the man with KK waking up to the giddeup-go in the face of Al's raise. Al may not have been at the table long, but any greybeard (I'm being unfair, Al is only 10 years older than me) is usually a sneaky bastard and knows that an UTG raise is risky without a strong hand, and you should respect the game of any of the older players, particularly ones in the final 30, and especially if they have acquired a healthy stack.

I can therefore to put Al on a range of hands from AK to AJ, and any PP AA on down to, ar worst, 99 or 88, maybe 77. His raise invites a response, being small, so it could be a monster AA or it could be a hand he may very well get away from, like JJ or 10 10.

I don't have much information here, and I want to act quickly in response to this raise. Obviously peeking down at KK tells me Al doesn't have KK, and I am 70% fave or better to win preflop against all but AA. I am generally of the view that AA is fair game to kick my ass if i am holding KK at this crucial time of the tournament.

In other words, I do not have a ton of thinking to do. I am safe with KK as a huge favorite. I want to make the call quite quickly but not too quickly, and silently. The time it takes to pick up the correct denomination of chips is plenty of delay, and make the call. I do not announce the call, I just slide the chips forward.

If I am lucky, my lack of attention--getting on the call will not be noticed by players coming in later. I want them all to look up when it is their turn and see a small raise and call, and have no other information. I am not representing anything other than a hand which I would like to see a flop with. Hopefully they were chatting with a neighbour or ogling the waitress when I called.

If I am very lucky, a desperate short stack or aggressive big stack sees 5600 of dead money in the pot, a weak raise and call for two players who are not pot committed, and ideally, the BB and SB are not short and desperate, making theft a solid option. Time and time again, I have seen late raises here, more so than if there were two limpers. A weak PP or A high may very well try to steal this tempting money. I often see the moderate raise and call both fold to the significant reraise.

Lets say a guy with 35000 chips is holding AQ on the button, and the play folds to him. He will be very tempted to play back strong here. Lets say he does, and puts Al and you both all in.

What does Al do here? He has QQ, and the big stack decides to get pushy? He can easily put the big stack on a weaker hand than QQ, and he simply can't put you on a hand if you have managed the sly call effectively. Al thinks he is the trapper here, and simply must call, if I have done my job and snuck in my KK covertly. If I can hold my water and relax during this, so much the better. Maybe there is a game on the TV overhead, or a hot waitress or patron just walked by to assist in my distraction. Al cannot have the information required to read my hand. He's all in and so am I, QQ is dead to one out, AQ has 3.

My odds calculator puts KK ahead 71.2% vs AQ, 81.7% vs QQ head up, and a full 65.2%, close to 2/3, three handed to triple up. That is an overwhelmingly fantastic position to be in for a tournament-defining triple up. If my two opponents are AQ and AJ, I am 73%. My weakest odds are against a lower PP like JJ vs AQ, only 57%, but still the correct play. I can afford a little distraction until the flop strikes felt.

What is important here, faced with a big raise from a big stack, and a call from Al, is I now can confirm he has a very strong hand, which is not KK, and may very well not be AA, and I really can expect the big stack to be pushing with the worst of it. There is no way that big stack (or desperate short stack) pushes us both all in with AA.

Here's why.

Al and I are equal in chips, and have committed 18% to 20% of out stack to these hands. We are not pot committed, and if this action folds to me with AA, any raise I make pretty much commits my opponents to the pot to call, and a mere minraise is way too damn obvious too. I am in a conundrum, and unless I make a very quick and correct decision, I give away my strength and lose my fishies. I think the best move for me with AA is another simple, quick call, knowing that I have created a 7400 pot for two stacks with about 8000 left which will tempt both sorely while I have position. I am 67% likely to be the winner after 5 cards, 80% to be ahead on the flop against two lower pair, and can afford the bad beat if they catch a set. If one player is holding an Ace, I am 75% likely after 5, which is like 85% post flop, and if I am checked to, I definitely bet big post flop. Monkeying around with AA three handed is a recipe for disaster, and If I read my opponents right, one will bet on the flop, I will reraise all-in, and the third player will fold.

In other words, the guy in middle position with KK is in a FAR BETTER POSITION TO GET PAID IN A HUGE THREE WAY POT than then guy with AA in late position, played carefully. By carefully, I mean with finesse, not caution.

The key here is of course the likely prospect, in the event of a raise, I will be the one to close the pot preflop.

Now, If I have played my KK against Al this way, and I get no callers, of course, I have position on Al. Al, holding QQ, will bet on any flop without an A or K, trying to take the pot down without offer up a free card to get beat with. If Al didn't have QQ, or an A comes on, and he checks either way, I probably check back to persuade him I also found the flop distasteful. He probably bets on ANY OTHER CARD on the turn, and my trap is spring. Certainly, a check on an A high flop can indicate the under PP, or it can be a sneaky slow play (an Al specialty). It may very well be in that situation that I have paid so small a price to see my KK that I can be pushed off of it by the prospect of the A having me beat too.

In other words, my trap play here is actually safer than the raise, because I will rely upon good post flop play to determine my next move, and maximizes the potential for raking in a huge pot.

If you have JJ, protect it or fold it. KK is so big a hand, the risk/reward potential of a slowplay preflop is huge, and it is absolutely critical you disguise your strength effectively. Of course, when in doubt (i.e the flop offers straight or flush draws consistent with Al's likely holdings), you have an all in bet available post flop for that protection.

Okay....I've got you to the final table and beyond. I expect next blog will return to the final table, getting shorter, the money getting bigger.....

And the Lady of Luck is peeking at your cards....