Chapter 9 point sumpin': More Final Table Talk

Hey ladies and gents. Bit tired today, working two jobs and all that. Made 4th at the final table yesterday, after walking in 40 minutes late for the tourney due to job #1, and, before I talk about some fine points of final table play, I just want to point out some awful mistakes I saw along the way.

Lets start with a "pot odds" "obligatory" call, discussed in detail in chapter 8.1, August 24. Wow this was a bonehead, "pot odds" call.

The player a few chairs to my left has been down on his luck and short stacked FOREVER. But he seems to have found a knack for survival, and is still here with 3000 chips after winning a pot from the BB with only 1/2 the BB left for s atck not so long ago. He may be desperate, but he has been playing survival poker well. When 3 players, including me fold to him, and 4 left at the table, he pushes his chips in, and the players fold to the BB.

The BB has 1500 committed to the pot, and with the SB, antes and the short stack's raise also in, the pot is 6200, leaving him 1500 chips to call for a pot of 7700, or what Mike Sexton would describe as 4:1 on his money.

But the BB has only 7000 chips left after making the call, and he has, well, OMG at least its suited..... 2 3 clubs. At least he goes into the tank, but he calls, strictly on pot odds. No other thought required, although he hates himself.

And when he winds up against JJ, I can't help but criticize his bonehead play. BECAUSE HE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE 1500 MORE. It's not like I put the short stack on JJ here, although he has often made his moves with any PPs, putting him on a hand is a factor.

If our caller had analyzed the short stack's game at all, it is clear he would push at least 50% of the time with a pocket pair, and the other 50% of the time, the short stack is guaranteed to have two overcards on against his miserable 2 3. ANY PP has 2 3 dominated to a 80% or better chance to win at least, and the only thing that gives 2 3 any hope is being a suited connector hand offering a 3% flush or 3% straight possibility. If we make the short stack have AJ, AJ is a 61% dominating hand, 63% if one card is a club. Similarly, if the short stack has one club in his PP, give his odds 2% more, and that is a 50/50 proposition too. A bigger suited connector of a different suit has 64% odds to beat 2 3 clubs and if clubs as well, gets 66% to win

So, if 50% of the time I am dominated by a PP and 19% to win, and the other 50% of the time I am 33% to win against ANY TWO RANDOM CARDS, I have 26% chance to win 6200 chips for another investment of 1500. Lets add to this the fact that the SB only pays 500 in this structure at my casino, and we are 8 handed, meaning 8 full hands until I have to pay a BB again. I am 74% likely to have 7000 chips left at the end of the hand, 26% likely to have 15700, and folding guarantees me 8500 in chips with a cheap SB which doesn't need protection.

Lets just call this "pot odds" vs "Al's Law". You will remember Al is the master of the short stack. Al folds here and so do I. We are in the final 16, and I may need 8500 chips to force a big stack in the BB to lay down when I have to steal to survive. 7000 or less might not cut it. And if I do get action when I get a hand, I want as big a stack as I possible doubled up.

Miller and Sklansky might break this down into "EV" values. If I am 25% likely to win 6200, my expected value for playing is 1/4 the profit, or 1550 in chips, almost precisely the cost of my investment. It is equally "profitable" to lay the hand down. EV says your move is good either way, basically, but of course an EV analysis is a cash game concept based strictly on probabilities, without any real consideration for the consequences of losing chips you can't rebuy. If you are in this scenario 4 times, it will pay of one of those 4 times, resulting in even money. Each time you will invest 1500 chips, for a total of 6,000, and one of those times you will get a return of 6200.

If you add "Al's Law" to an EV analysis, this is an easy laydown. If you put the pusher on a PP, and there was enough chat between them to get a clue, EV drops to 1178, making folding the More profitable move. You are 76 to 81% LIKELY (the different and worse value being attributed to a successful read that he has a PP) to simply lose another 1500 chips you can't afford to lose. If you had 25,000 chips, the price sounds fairer, but even so, with at best 33% to win (assuming an accurate read he has two open overcards and not a PP) you may knock a player out and get that much closer to the final table, you are still 66% likely to improve the fortunes of a player who has survival skills and could become a dangerous opponent later should this double up set him up for another one which turns him into a contender.

So, our short stack survivor limped into the final table with about 11,000 chips, and our "pot odds" caller who felt the need to defend his call from my criticism in the bathroom at the break, busted out in 13th.

I, on the other hand, played the final 20 patiently, having doubled through with QQ to get there with 20,000. After dropping to 15,000 for having nothing (and taking adavantage of some steal opportunities in the tightness of the final 20 to hold onto 15,000) I managed to double through again raising with AJ all in from the button, and persuading the BB to call by telling him the truth, that I had my "Lucky Hand". Her put all his chips in with QK and I rivered a J I didn't need.

And a marvelous thing then happened. I and the player to my right both had the big stacks at the table, he 40,000, me about 32,000, and we protected each others' blinds from steals as a result. In addition, my opponent having caught a swing of luck, knew he was good to go to the final and pretty much stopped playing. So when I was in the BB, everyone folded to us, and my chip leader without position gave me 3 walks in a row to snatch the blinds and antes for free.

As another example, this time from the correct side of "pot odds" play, at our final table a medium stack, the same fellow I just spoke about who gave me 3 passes on my BB at the prior table, who I know tends to raise with solid hands, especially in poor position, raises to 7000 with blinds of 1500/3000 in early position. He has about 21000 left, and the SB, to whom we all fold, is the chip leader and he asks for the count. He talks too much, and, while it is clear he has a hand, he is out of position, and elects to make the call, knowing the BB, also a big stack, has fantastic odds to call 4000 more and see a flop. He knows this because he says so, and I get a tell from him that he is deliberately building a bigger pot: in fact, maybe he is this clever, even if he shouldn't think aloud so much: He has built a pot size which exactly matches the remaining chips of the original raiser. The BB, a pregnant woman whom the people at her table have been respecting (for her game, not her condition) makes the call anyway, and why not, she is adding 4000 chips to a 18,000 chip pot, or 4.5 to 1 on her money, as Mr. Sexton is fond of announcing.

Lets keep in mind that this is NOT a showdown situation, all players can afford to fold, and the BB (Baby Bearer?) can flop huge with any two cards, possibly on a flop where either other player has top pair.

If I am the BB with her stack, I will lay down trash, but call any reasonable hand, and this includes some pretty weak hands like 10 7, J 5, just because a BB special cannot be read. If I have a HAND here, one capable of trapping with, like KK or QQ, or one with big flop potential, I can make a call here that LOOKS LIKE a simple pot odds call too and disguise my hand. In this scenario, a little PP make a perfect disguised call which could lead to a huge flop and big fireworks. In other words, the BB has CORRECTLY used pot odds to either see a cheap flop in a big pot or lay a huge trap in a pot that the original raiser may be very tempted to take a stab at, given that he can make a post flop bet in position in an amount which may be difficult to call, unless his opponents are in fact trapping.

Alas, if the BB was attempting a trap, we shall never know, as the SB who had been laying too much of a trap himself with his words and actions, makes the pot sized bet as first to act post flop, with a K high flop, and everyone folded. He will show QK. Clearly he isn't the sneaky, silent type, but taking a nice pot down after a nice flop is a solid conservative play that avoids, say, luring JJ to bet the flop and go all in only to catch his 2 outer or whatever. I think I check raise or bet a little less on the flop just in case someone has a trap to spring on me, like AK, AA or a lucky set on the flop.

While our talkative SB player with the big stack has been catching way to much luck, I think by talking too much, he missed an opportunity to win the bigger pot. QK is certainly a calling hand from the SB in that situation, and not likely a raising hand given the reputation of the original raiser and the so-so quality of QK as a showdown hand. You want to see a flop with it, and you want some indication of where you stand. PokerMonster makes a quiet call, and probably will check raise on that flop unless one of my opponents demonstrates a post flop tell that tells me top pair Q kicker is in trouble.

And here's another "pot odds" laydown, again at the final table, and this time I am in the hot seat, in the SB with 35000 chips, blinds 1500/3000 and the same Survivor who got 23 to call his JJ comes in for all his chips, 9000. I have QJ off suit, and strongly suspect I have two over or two live. A little bird is saying Survivor has a little PP. There is another short stack with 20,000 in the BB. I am looking at a pot of 15000, an investment of 7500, and its is just as likely my opponent has a modest Ace, giving me 42% to win, or a modest PP, offering me two overs and a coinflip, and some possibility that I am dominated for only 30% to win. Let's say the proportions are 45/45/10 respectively, but I really have a hunch he has a small PP. The less informed consideration of my odds still offers me odds of over 40% to win, if I can isolate from the BB. If I just call, I risk inviting the BB in, whom I know is something of an odds player, a good, tight player, but still one with a little less complication to his game than mine. He is a regular best noted for Phil Hellmuth-like rants after going in with the best of it and losing to suckouts, a regular occurrence. He will eventually go out of this final table calling a 95 sooted steal all in on his blind holding AK and watching both the 9 and the 5 hit.

But back to this situation. 43% heads up with Survivor minimum, very likely a coinflip and 3 to1 on my "money".

It's not money. My money is waiting for me at the cashier once I take this tourney down or bust out trying.

These are tournament chips I have earn back if I am wrong. Survivor has shown a knack for surviving. I don't want him to have 22,500 chips, and Ranting Man still has to act. A three way pot drops me down to 33% to win what is now a very large pot, and I won't have position or know where I stand post flop. My 33% to win is 20% to manifest itself on the flop. I can read my opponent but not the top 8 cards remaining in the deck. Just a call offers Ranting Man 6000 to pay to win 22,500, even better odds. A raise could run into something I don't want, and I'd prefer to keep Ranting Man small, too, not potentially double him up on an investment of 6000 chips or close to triple him up and cripple myself trying to push him out with Q high. Mike Sexton will also not tell you to bust out holding Q high. He is SO CONFLICTED.

I am less conflicted.

I fold.

BB calls with A8. I was dead right on my read of Survivor. He has 55. Running this scenario on the odds computer puts me at 37.1% to win if I play and Survivor calls. I would have to hit a J or Q while avoiding an A, 5 or, 8 8 to win. Given that Survivor may have read a call as a pot odds call, he may have pushed up with A high sensing weakness too. Losing this hand could have meant losing 7500 or 20,000 of my 35,000.

How was I to know the flop would have both a Q and a J? A8 can't catch up, and Survivor doubles up, but I still have 35,000 chips. I am an advocate of playing to win, but playing to win means playing smart not just getting lucky. I have plenty of chips to wait for better opportunities, and to ride out other busts if those opportunities don't materialize. In this case, my 35000 chips were enough to crash into 4th, even if good cards never materialized.

Here is another huge mistake. We are back to the final 20. There is a large fellow in seat one with a modest stack of about 11,000.00. In seat one, the dealer is to your right and you really can't see the players in seats 8, 9 and 10. Seat 8 had raised to 3700. Seat 10 had called. (The blinds had been 500/1000 at the time). Big #1 can't see that Seat 10 only has 5000 left. Seat #1 goes all in, and then looks sick while seat 10 goes in the tank after seat 8 folds.

Big #1 has 44. He was trying to re-raise-steal, I presume. Seat 10 calls with K J or similar, and catches up to 44 to double up while Big #1 cripples up. Just plain dumb.

Not only does the chip count request slow things down, and gets information not only in chip stack size but your opponent's confidence level, but you shouldn't even need the information here to lay down 44, or maybe just call. I don't think it is a very profitable call, with only 11% to catch your set while being out of position against players you can't even see, given the commitment to the flop is already 30% of your stack.

Player 8 may have a hand, or have attempted to steal. Player 10 may have a calling hand, or a trapping hand, or just intends to outplay the raiser postflop. But it is almost guaranteed that one of those two people have a good hand, and Big #1 has made a WEAK BET. It was OBVIOUS he was stealing the moment I put his chips in. He had a look of terror on his face. You didn't need to see him to figure out this bet was weak.

Compare this to our analysis of Al's bustout with QQ not so long ago, when Al and I both analyzed his opponent to have KK, Al just a second too late to avoid making the call. There is a clear distinction between the "I dare you to call" all-in and the "I'm fed up with losing hands" all-in. I recall such an all-in from a player at my prior table earlier in the game yesterday. He had come to my table, a table of tighter, more solid players (a bit ABC, and exploitable, but a strong table) with a very big stack. No matter what he did, he couldn't seem to win a hand. It had hurt further that he had been caught raising in early position with a weak sooted Ace early at the table, damaging his image. His raises kept getting action, and he kept missing flops and being outplayed postflop. He was a very average stack quite soon.

When he opened the pot with 3x the blind and QK spades, he got a raise and a call, and, clearly exasperated, went all in. He got two callers, one was AK, the other a desperation J9. He got very lucky J 9 on the flop, (lucky?) and 10 on the river to catch a straight and suck out both the main and side pots.

Get to know the look of the frustrated player pushing all in.

I had to criticize Big #1 for his bonehead play. This is the final 20, and people make moves. He was guaranteed one caller, and like my last example, could have gotten two. 44 is 56% to win against ANY RANDOM HAND (including A-5 2, A-5 3 A-5 4, 2 3, 3 3, 2 2 a large number of hands it dominates) but down to a pure coin flip against two overcards, and in 18% territory against another PP. Again, the RANGE OF HANDS 44 will be up against here, is 50% likely a coinflip, and 50% likely a better PP. Our man had 34% chance to win the pot, since he had NO CHANCE of stealing preflop. But he thought he had a "legitimate hand", he whined against the fury of my scorn.

Big #1 will limp into the final table with 9000 chips and walk into my KK in the SB with Q 10 and bust out 9th.

You can play like Al, or play like the PokerMonster, but either way, the key to getting to the final table is to THINK THROUGH ALL MOVES and PICK YOUR SPOTS. If you are the first to act, bet according to the chip stacks of those in front of you and your goal, whether it be stealing or looking for action. If a raise comes to you and you see good looking cards, use the information weapons at your disposal to assess your situation. Twice at the final table yesterday, I sat in the BB against a raise and a call, looked down at something playable QK and KJ, and simply had to lay down and let the to players duke it out. Both times I would have been dominated had I played.

If we go back to my AJ double up, since I knew my opponent was unsure, I threw in a little speech about my "lucky hand", which sounds like I was warning him to off to fold, like In didn't want a call. I was, and that was what was so deceptive. I knew I was ahead because of his actions, and enticed the call expecting I had him dominated, and was close to right. Perhaps my hand was "lucky" because it needed a lucky flop, or perhaps it was a big PP which had a knack for attracting action and holding up, like QQ. I happen to have a whole range of "lucky hands", after all, it simply happens that my AJ has the additional cache of busting KK and AK in 30% situations. I wanted a call here, as I liked my odds of getting the double up I knew I needed for the final table.

And when the tournament director gave me credit for my consistency in reaching deep into final tables as I walked to the cashier to claim my prize, I can tell you it is the strength of my play in these crucial times leading up to that final table which have led to these results. Part of this is simply the understanding that comes with experience with a particular format of a tournament, to know exactly where I am at at any given time in the game, what I need to do next, and when I need to do it. Add to this finding the players and situations to exploit to get it done, and, as long as my head is in the game, and I avoid major suckouts, I get it done.

Okay, we took a step back, so now a step forward. We've made it to the final. Now fastforward. I have already blogged talked about early final table play. To summarize my advice: pick your spots while the short stacks get picked off, just like along the road to the final table, the difference being the table is big again until these players are out and hand quality has to be premium to very good in likely showdown situations. Let's now put us at my final table yesterday, down to 6 players.

Whether the final table is the more-action oriented casino weekly with the blinds and antes getting pricey, or the typical on line MTT with less pressure, there is now a lull, a brief time where chip stacks are relatively even, and everyone can afford the blinds and antes.

There is usually one or two bigger stacks and then the balance of stacks will be about the same. In the typical $100+9 online game with 100+ players and 2500 in starting chips, and this similar casino game, the decent stacks are now in the 30,000 to 40,000 range, a big stack may have 60,000 or more. At the casino, we are probably at 1000/2000 or 1500/3000 levels at this point. The average stack is only 10 x to 15 x the BB, but still can afford to fold that BB. Online, the level may be at 600/1200 or 800/1600, and we of course will see more hands between level increases in the online game, especially since we are 6 handed and the computer reshuffles a new hand in 3 seconds not 30. If you get a quality live dealer, that may be 20 seconds, and we had a great one last night, but the pace remains incomparable. You will simply have fewer hands to play in this time between 6 remaining and 4 in a live game while the level increases push at the same time against keeping all 6 alive. In either game, however, that slow down time is there, and is there to be exploited.

In this lull period, pots will shrink in size. Limp-ins and modest raises will be more common than all-in moves. SB and BB will often be heads up in unraised pots playing trash against trash.

In spite of the sudden relaxation of the game, this is both a fun time and a crucial time. If I am a big stack, I want to manage the smaller stacks and my own stack. If I just play tight and preserve my stack, others will catch up. If I am in the middle, I want to get big without getting into trouble.

Because we are now 6, 5, 4 handed, SB and BB come around quickly, and no one is going to give you action for a big pot when you have QQ anyway, You have to play your best poker here. Sorry Al, better get that stamina up so you are fresh for the final 6 next Monday.

All your opponents are good players, they deserve your respect. All have the same goal, to get someone else eliminated before them. Accumulating chips is a better strategy than simply being blinded and anted off while others play. As I discussed in my review of several final tables recently, the fatigue factor, present online as well, is huge live. Poker faces disappear, and if you are alert, you will be able to notice that they can't hide their fear or disappointment in their cards or the flop, or confidence, as well as before.

Lets also keep in mind that this lull in tournament pressure will not last forever. At the casino, we will be bank under the pressure of the blinds and antes after 20 minutes of this maybe 30, amounting to 12 to 18 hands, where you will be BB 3 times or likely more given that others will be eliminated. In the on-line game, the pressure is different. You have to convince your opponents to pay off worthwhile pots.

Either way, this amounts to two things: loosening up your starting hand requirements, playing more pots, seeing more flops, and playing solid trapping plays when you catch big flops and solid betting plays when you see an opportunity to take a pot down with weak cards or a weak flop yourself. This time of the tournament is the very element of the game of poker. Preflop and post flop decision making, and making the plays which count. It is real easy to call an all-in with KK. It is harder to play KK in a limped in pot and trap for value while protecting it too. Time to play your complete game. THIS is the time when image will come into play when you need a big laydown to survive a bluff for a pot you must win, when your poker face must be inscrutable, when you can munch on your fries non-nonchalantly while your opponent is in the tank sweating and wringing his hands over your bet, or go into acting mode to sell weakness to add value to your huge flop. In other words, all of the skills I have already discussed at length in prior blogs, playing out of position, playing out of the blinds, reads, tells, disguises, etc. have to be available to succeed at this point in the game, as opposed to merely treading water or watching your stack disappear through mistakes.

My experience playing in 10 and 6 seat SNGs, and playing the 6-8 player home game, which is a short stacked game, has been my best training ground for playing in this particular portion of the final table.

Here, not only am I looking to play my often discussed "mixed paint" and small PP's, usually on raises, but I want to mix my play up, raising with odd hands and limping with big ones. By big ones, I am talking about PPs, not big aces. You can trap in a small pot with a big BB, but you have to raise a decent ace or decent mixed paint, just so the SB and BB don't get a cheap look at a flop and catch something underneath. AJ has more value as a steal or a call in position a raised pot, than trying to trap with it in a small one. I have seen people play AK traps here, but I'm not fond of losing with AK to 10 7 which never would have seen a flop if I'd protected my hand.

In addition, I am going to play a lot more hands here. K- sooted and Q - sooted with kickers 7 and above will be played. I am back to interesting cards, like 10 9 sooted or J 9 or 7 8, hands I haven't been able to play since crisis time started. I want to see a flop with these hands, cheaply or for a price I can control, and with position on likely opponents.

I will feel more comfortable limping these hands in and playing against the blinds because these hands operate similarly to BB specials. They connect into medium flops, and often for big draws or made hands, which someone with middle or top pair from a blind might bet into. They can be played against modest raises when you have the chips to call, since, depending on the player, whom you should know real well by now, may very well be playing as I suggested, raising high cards while trapping with PPs, allowing you to see flop which may be much more friendly to your middle connected and semi-connected cards than AQ for the former, and letting you play a drawing hand capable of beating AA or KK trying to slow play trap for the latter.

To practice with these hands and this style or more open, creative play, the most obvious opportunity is the 6 man SNG online. I find the $10 games to offer up a nice range of decent short table opponents, and the turbo games (5 minute levels) to best simulate short final table pressure. A $5 SNG is a cheap place to start to build up the more creative side of your short-handed game with lesser opponents, but you will learn nothing playing cheaper except that you don't enjoy playing with rookies.

Okay, its a long blog, and this is only an introduction to this portion of the final table. Tomorrow is another day. And Saturday is another tournament. And open, creative, short table play is probably a book unto itself.

And the Lady of Luck is checking the time, sitting in the passenger seat of my car with the engine running, all dressed up with someplace to go, while I chat with you guys....