Hello, to both my small loyal following and any lucky or unlucky fool who has stumbled upon me. I refrained from wasting my poker stories in the casino bathroom tonight. You are the beneficiary of my restraint.
Yes, I busted out early tonight. Some crackerjack thinks its a smart thing to do to limp AA UTG with blinds of 50/100. To a minraise of 200, I decide to push around the raising short stack when I wake up in the SB with 10 10. To protect in, I go all in assuming the BB and the limper can't call 3500 chips. Eventually, I will have to push with A high UTG again, and fall to quad 7's in a otherwise happy 3-pot. The minraise trap with AA UTG works well at an aggressive table in crisis time, but is a sure way to get a 5 way pot out of position on a scary board in the first hour. I don't know how many times AA has in fact fallen to a BB special 2 pair by limping in and getting no raises. Did someone at the back of the room say "every time"? I think so. You can't remotely know where you stand post flop letting two random cards see a flop. You want to rely on 3 random cards on the flop, not fear them. Gah. See earlier blogs on BB specials. Terrible play got rewarded.
Overplay 10 10? Push early with A high UTG short stacked and fall to a monster hand in a three-way pot? Is there an echo here? Oh yeah, that was my fate on Saturday. But that was after over 7 hours of poker, not one, and there is a lot to tell and a lot for us both to learn from. I learn a lot by reviewing and reliving my war stories, and if you get something out of it too, fantastic. Bad poker stories are pretty boring, except to the addicted.
There were three young buddies at my table this evening all live MTT newbies. Two made some mistakes and busted out early, but the third got short stacked, and then settled down. First live tourney for all three, and for I know, the last short stacked, who pushed his chips in with AQ diamonds on a 10 high 2 D flop, got called loose by AQ off suit, and freerolled the 3 of diamonds on the turn to chip up, is still sitting at the table now and I'm chatting with you guys. I could tell from the three of them that he was the most ready. One of them overplayed 10J, caught a 10 high flop, and paid off a very well handled short stack holding KK, to go short and out. Amigo 3 seemed to have the concept of the bet preflop which leaves enough in the stack for
a credible bet postflop.
Amigo #1 got busted first, but had the sense to glom onto me and ask questions. This blog really is for you guys, who play with your buddies, play online, see live tournaments on TV, and want to, but don't know how to, make the transition. When I played my first live tournament a few months ago (has it really been just a few months?) I knew I had the math and the understanding of the game to do well, but, of course, my live play reading skills were in infancy and my abilities to disguise big preflop or post flop hands to maximize value or to sell a hand and make a huge bluff or semi-bluff pay off were not there.
PokerMonster does not bluff very often. I do not consider a good read of weakness followed by a correct bet that correctly matches the point where your opponent can't call, without making so large a bet that it is suspicious or so small it must be called, a "bluff". It is as legitimate a poker play as slowplaying a monster flop. Betting correctly is betting correctly, whether you hold the goods or not. Period. Sklansky and Miller's book on poker theory may be a cash-based theory book, but it is all about the math behind the correct bet. Slide that "pot odds" and EV based math into the additional factors in play in a tournament, and you have it made.
As an example, let's say I have AK, the flop comes K 8 9 two diamonds, I am not sooted, it is early in the tournament, the price preflop was only 10% of two equal stacks, 150 each, and I am reasonably sure the player, who I have yet to fully figure out, quite possibly called my initial small raise with a decent suited Ace. I am concerned about the flush draw, but I would also like to see some additional payment, as well as additional assurance I have someone on the hand I suspect. A little more money for the short term, a little information for the long term.
If I, as first to act into a 300 pot, make a 200 bet, I am offering my opponent a price of 200 to make 500, or roughly the same odds as him MAKING THE FLUSH BY THE FLOP. In a cash game, that is an easy call. In a tournament with starting chips of 1500, I have my man on the brink of calling and folding. Depending on the chip depth in the tournament and the size of the buy in, the opponent with the flush draw could (if very tight) fold, could (if he likes to double early, float, semi-bluff, or otherwise gamble ) raise me, perhaps all in, or (most cases) call. If we are in a 2500 chip game, the correct play is always to call, as the price is low enough to be basically risk-free in the long term game. 2150 left offers me plenty more flops with leisurely levels and cheap blinds. Had I made a 400 bet in a 1500 game or a 500 bet in a 2500 game, those bets are a pretty big commitment for anyone playing anything with a hefty buy-in, and could induce a flush draw gamble in a lower priced game.
What is interesting here is that a very good player with Ace-diamonds in position could still push that flush draw depending on where he thinks he is in the hand. That very good player will read, from my various post flop bet options:
- 200: my opponent is either unsure of himself, making a continuation bet, or caught a huge flop (KK hits set) and is betting for value, and may not realize he just offered me the correct odds to call my monster draw to the nuts;
- 300: (bet pot button on line). This is an amateur bet by an amateur player. He may or may not have caught the flop, and if he did he has a pair only.
- 400 or 500: My opponent caught his K, and it trying to take the pot down right now. He is not willing to gamble with the prospect of a flush beating his AK or AA. What he has is obvious. I am beat now.
- A check on the flop? No way do I offer a free card here without any information back to see where I stand. K high no draw? Sure, I can check trap post flop.
- 200: No matter what he has, he is offering me the right odds to beat him. I don't have enough information to know if he has nothing, top pair, or a set. IF I put him on a continuation bet (and both live and online there are serious tells available), I may just push the envelope with a bet which commits us both to the pot if he calls. IF I am at all unsure I just call.
- 300: Weak bet. Amateur player. He will not get away from his AK if he has it. Not enough information to know whether I have him beat already or whether I am 35% through 5. I am inclined call and see if he slows down on the turn, and this will dictate my next move.
- 400 or 500: How did he know I had two diamonds? If I feel lucky, lets rumble! If not, I fold.
- no way I check here, but if I did, it would because I expect my opponent to stab at the pot, and would do so to check-raise, not float call. If I attempt to represent the flush draw when my opponent has the flush draw, he will see right through me and take the opportunity to check-check to the river as I foolishly attempt to trap. With a flush draw in position, the free card is often the best move. Sklansky and Miller discuss this from a scrictly mathematical perspective in terms of a better positive EV. To hell with EV values and explaining that cash-game gobbledy-gook mumbo-jumbo here, they just mean you will more likely make more money hitting that draw later than bluffing at a small pot now in the long run based on pure probability. I add to that dry concept the additional effect that checking back offers me as the UTG AK no information to assess where I stand on the turn card. This is particularly so if a 10 high flush draw sees the K of diamonds on the turn, or my K high hits the A of diamonds (QJ diamonds being a legitimate in-position preflop call here as well). With AK out of position and blind to my opponent, I may bet the turn and bet the flop and not figure out how dead and stupid I am until I am raised for value or all in on the river. The check on the flop into the potential flush draw simply concedes all the power in the hand to the player with position. He can now REPRESENT the flush draw if it hits and he doesn't have it or represent something else when weakness is exposed.
We are midstage in the weekly Monday game 300/600, and the button elects to limp as first in the pot, the SB calls and I, in the BB with 63 diamonds, check to see a free flop.
The flop is A diamond diamond. I have the flush draw and from the BB my special is completely disguised. I can check here and have nothing, a draw, or a monster BB special. When the SB checks, so do I and so does the button. I am delighted by the free card.
The turn is a black 7, SB checks, I check, button minbets 600. SB folds I make the cheap call.
The river is another black 7, there is almost 4000 in the pot, and my opponent looked perplexed by my call. He has no idea where he stands, so I elect to represent the 7 and push all-in for 6500 chips. He simply can't call and will show A5 hearts. I will muck and rake. I can make that representation because my call was as consistent with someone who thought his 7 might be good as the draw I was trying to hit, and the failure to bet on the flop allowed me to fully disguise my BB special.
As you can see, the value bet of 200, because it confuses a good opponent as to whether I am weak or strong (set vs continuation bet), and his best response tends to give away his hand, particularly if there is a pause to reflect on my bet. Beware, however, of the quick smooth call. That is not a flush draw. That could very well be a set. One of my poor rookies kept bluffing his A5 against a 10 7 7 flop through the river from the SB position and paid off 1000 chips to A7 smooth calling him.
The top pair checker in my example, in trying to "trap" with his weak ace, instead surrendered the lead, indeed his entire soul, to me. Ace high, SB and BB check to my limp, I BET to end the pot whether I have that A or not. Top pair is just too weak to let an opponent catch up.
With a value/blocking/information bet if 200, the information offered by the most likely response with the nut flush draw, a call, gives me the read which dictates my next move. This, subject to the pause test, which again is no guarantee. So much of this advice is player specific, and under no circumstances am I advocating following my "rules" like a puppet instead of keeping your head alive and in the game. If and when I am sure my opponent is drawing flush, I have just squeezed 350 of his chips in on what is really an 18% chance to beat me for the next turn. I need these extra chips, early and really can afford both the 18% risk and to fold if the next card should be a diamond, because I will already know I am very likely beat if it comes. The whole betting behaviour determines my read, not just whether he called or not.
Let's reverse this and put us in the driver's seat, first to act in a pot we raised, but this time we are holding the AQ diamonds. I have already told you what each of the above bets represent, but here we have to decide either how to win the pot on a semi-bluff, control the situation to get to the river nuts, or, as I did with the runner runner 7's find another way to pull the trigger correctly and win the pot.
What I don't recommend here is checking into the caller intending to check-call float to victory. Actually I do to a point, but I do like to bet my flush draws, especially if the board was unlikely to assist my opponent, like the 10 high draw our last of three new amigos doubled up with today. The check-call says "I have a flush draw" a little too much, killing your action if the turn card makes the flush and killing your investment when it doesn't. If the turn is bad for you, if you check he pushes you out with a bet he know you can't call with 18% and one card left if he has the hand. Of course, if he checks back, he may have been just bluffing the flop and you get either a diamond on the river of a chance to represent like you had it all along if the river hits you another way or could not have helped him.
I don't like the check simply because we do not have the information to KNOW whether a check-call is the right move until he responds to our check. If the game is live, and you have a tell to work with, a sneaky check followed by a suspicious bet that suggests strongly uncertainty in your opponent, may in fact provoke a check-raise semibluff from you that might have achieved both extra money in the pot and an opportunity to take the pot down. That check raise is tough though. At the very least, you have serious outs if called. These are moves that I have done and will still do. It is best if you have already done a good check raise move in the tournament, especially if you were trapping. See earlier blogs on play out of position for more details.
I find the SAFER and MORE EFFECTIVE move is to bet into the man in position. But how much? Keep in mind that in this scenario YOU have JUST A DRAW and you have no idea where you stand in the hand. You need information, you need to disguise the true nature of your hand, and you, above all else want to win the pot, not stumble into a big mistake. It is early, your opponent just called your initial raise, and he could have ANYTHING.
Obviously the BIG BET (400 or 500 or similar amounts which have now committed a 1/3 of your stack to the pot) can and will be raised all-in by a big flop hitter or overpair, committing you to a choice between 35% of your stack given up or 35% to win big, assuming he holds top pair only. On the other hand, a VERY GOOD player who has caught a set may just call you, because you sure haven't represented a flush draw here, you've represented AK or AA protecting itself, and the set WILL PAY OFF the misdirected flush. You may even be able to check check a bad turn card and see a free river simply because his JUST CALL has given away his hand. IT IS TOO BIG A BET TO JUST CALL WITH A FLUSH DRAW so he does not represent a flush draw with the smooth call. If you check the turn he MAY EVEN VALUE BET the turn (like 200 or 250) now offering you fantastic odds, given how deeply committed you are already. Well, pretty good odds. With 4 cards on the felt, only two diamonds, you have 2 dead diamonds which could pair the board and make his obvious full house. In fact, that big bet will more than likely expose the reality of you running into a monster flop pretty quick, like my all in with 10 10 exposed the AA without needing him to turn over his cards today, but this is a very expensive mistake.
Let's keep in mind that the is only 11% chance your opponent has FLOPPED A SET, but that big bet is designed to PUSH OUT an opponent, not improve value, so you wind up winning a small pot, overcommitted to a reraise if your opponent has AK, and down to 25% with two to go if your opponent has a small PP which flopped the set. While those possibilities are out there and seem unlikely, the problem is that the "just caller" pre-flop can easily have AK, K high paint sooted, or that small PP we all like to see flops with and catch that 11% for the big pot, particularly in position.
We are back to the "correct odds" bet of 200. The one designed to confuse the enemy. What you are doing is a "blocking bet", which Miller and Sklansky describe but seem to fail to really enunciate its good use. A VERY TYPICAL blocking bet is the weak min-bet right off the flop. You see this weak play all the time online. I only see oldschoolers do it live. I WILL DO IT sometimes when I have flopped a set in poor position in a limped in pot, when my set is perfectly safe, just to see if it's weakness will attract either a multitude of overcard drawers or a raise, but I hate it. I can't make a real bet and the check call or raise gives my hand away. GAH. It usually just improves a small pot to a slightly less small pot.
200, good blocking bet. WHEN IT IS NOT OBVIOUSLY A BLOCKING BET. This is the irony of the play. You are MAKING A BLOCKING BET TO DISGUISE IT AS A VALUE BET IN ORDER TO PROTECT ITS VALUE AS A BLOCKING BET. By disguising the blocking bet so, you manage the price of the next card while representing that you have something, but not what it is, and, hopefully, not giving away the fact that you are blocking the flush draw. It will take an experienced player to be confused by the blocking bet. Mr. Phil Gordon Reader will just raise with top pair. He is too afraid of the flush draw ghost not to protect his AK. This is why I use the VALUE BET DISGUISED AS A BLOCKING BET to get paid on a flopped set, particularly when I am out of position, and have my ABC opponent on a hand, whether it is an overpair against a small flop or the flop hit a big card like an A and PP hit a very innoculous set. This bet may very well induce the ABC player to play "chase the ace" and see the next card cheap too.
Obviously the response to the blocking bet will provide you with the information you need. Even the VERY GOOD PLAYER should be confused by the blocking bet. In fact, the ABC player with AK will just read it for what it REALLY IS, weakness, and push. I find that the 2/3 small pot blocking bet is more used and more effective live than online, which seems to either do that weakass minbet garbage or not at all.
What you really want is to induce the floater to float along while you either fish to the nuts, find the opening to bust his bluff back, or get paid on hand you know he has beat. The bet you choose is based on your goals, of course, but flush draw control is best done with effective bet management and the best way to control the behavior of your opponent is to confuse him and cast doubt as to where he stands in the hand.
Mixing up the play adds to the confusion. The same post-flop bet you used to get paid in full on a flopped set 12 hands earlier will put anyone in the pot with you on yellow alert, which is of course the goal to manage your draw and maximize the opportunity to win the biggest pot possible with or without hitting that nut draw.
Okay, the theory lesson is over. Thank god! Lets put some of this into practice.
Yay! (or yawn) Real Poker Stories!
The Saturday tournament is a format I have played and talked about before 10,000 starting chips, 30 minute levels starting at 25/50. A format designed to give all players a lot of time to make their stacks for their $300+30 investment. There are 250 players, and, as usual, play is tight.
Early on, I have played a semi-loose preflop game, calling modest raises with drawable hands, but catching no flops, and losing about 1,000 chips. I then get a small but blow limping in A10 for 100, seeing a A -K _J flop, and putting in about 1300 more calling a min check-raise from my initial 400 flop bet, a 500 turn bet, and check checking the river to see that my man out of position had limped in AK. I had been suspicious enough of the check min-raise to realize I may be drawing for the Q. Ouch, but I'm not dead, just down to 7500 chips, and annoyed because the play is cautious, the pots small, and just grinding back to 10,000 will be a chore.
To add to this frustration, the next pot I played, I raised AK UTG, got 4 callers, including the BB, saw a K Q 9 flop two clubs, and pushed all in against the BB's post flop bet of 1500 (very much needing to protect against a draw given that I had 1500 in added value to the 1600 pot, a big stack left to push with, and 2 more players to get past) to get called by the BB, also holding AK, splitting the pot to a meager payoff of 700 chips profit. Ugh.
Around this time, a player about 5 seats to my left who has been confidently throwing larger chunks of his stack around than the table average and inducing folds for moderate pots makes a critical mistake which I will later exploit.
This player looks like Beaver Cleaver just turned 40. He projects a straightforward image. He blows it on this hand. He has position on a UTG raiser and simply calls. The flop is K high, relatively high cards, two diamonds. The UTG makes a feeler bet, and Beaver makes the call. The turn is another diamond, and UTG makes a weak bet, Beaver makes a weak raise, and UTG calls. The final card is another diamond, and UTG is clearly pissed off, and just checks.
Here's the critical mistake. Instead of the value bet that I KNOW UTG can't call on the 4 flushed board, Beaver proudly announces "I have the flush!" and even more proudly shows his winning hand...6 of diamonds, 7 of hearts. No, not A 6 diamonds, 7 high off soot. Beaver had been floating through the whole hand with no pair, and runner runner dirt-weak flush draw.
That's only the first half of the mistake. Raking in a pretty damn big pot, he decides to brag to the whole table about what a brilliant player he thinks he is. He's just so damn full of himself. His bizarre ego requires the whole table to acknowledge his outplay. He not only exposes himself as a floater, but also an idiot who thinks he's a savant.
If I am that overstretched but caught my flush, have position, and see that my opponent screwed up a value bet slow play and is disgusted with the river card counterfeiting his hand, I make the bet he can't call and muck and rake. This is why I only prefer to semi-bluff than bluff, so I can not be ashamed of my showdown with I hit if I have to show it down.
He is not ashamed. He has brazenly brayed to the table. What the hell do you get when you cross a beaver with a donkey? This guy, I guess. Which one was his mother?
Soon after this our Beaver/Donkey will suckout lucky against a much better player for another big pot.
Let me talk about this player. My very first weekly MTT, this player was at my starting, late, and final table. A semi-loose player who plays excellent post-flop poker, and can make a huge call with a weak Ace post-flop. A very good player who needs some excess chips to play his game. He has a Russian hook to his nose and a vague accent so let's call him Czar Nick. Czar Nick took down the first weekly I played, and always had the big stack. Every time I see him at the casino, cash or tourneys, he has a big stack.
This time the whole table seemed to see him coming and he is getting played back at over and over and over and losing chips 1000 at a time. Beaver/Donkey will suck out on him for 1/2 of his last 5000 in this handm raising on the cutoff to open the pot to Czar Nick, who makes the call.
On a Q 2 2 flop, Czar Nick will bet the flop and Beaver/Donkey will float the call. With a 4 on the turn the same will happen, to the tune of 1500 of Czar Nick's chips committed to the river, another 2. Czar Nick checks, Beaver/Donkey value bets 1000, and the frustrated Czar Nick makes the call. Beaver/Donkey oh so proudly displays Q3 clubs for the full house, and a despondent Czar Nick will muck what was most likely 10 10 or a similar PP.
Beaver/Donkey chipped up, glowing with the confidence only stupidity along with a borderline personality disorder can bring. Czar Nick is on tilt, and I get to carve a chunk out of both of them, starting with the Czaz, when the button comes back the Czar two hands later.
The sneaky bastard who slow played AK raises to 500 UTG, and I make the call in the middle with KQ clubs. Not the best hand in a raised pot, but I have position on the raiser and some urgency and a good price to see the right flop. Czar Nick, with position and on tilt, makes the call. I am not concerned with Nick because he is on tilt and desperate to make a pot.
The flop is J 10 4 one club two spades, giving me the straight draw and overcards. The Sneak checks and I check, and Czar Nick throws his last 1850 at the 1725 pot. I like this, because it was enough to induce the Sneak to fold gave me two things: knowledge that Czar Nick caught a pair only and I have a great price to call what I am sure are two overcards and a straight draw, or 14 outs, to win a pot which improves my fortunes at a price I can live with if I don't. If we give the Czar some outs to improve should I catch a pair, it is basically a coin flip with 2 to go.
See my very early blogs on monster draws for great detail on the subject of odds to win these draws. Bottom line is I simply can't lay down such a sweet draw for a closed pot and such terrific pot and implied odds. I can't give up the opportunity to win the pot I know I need, so I call.
Czar had 10 8 off suit, and I couldn't ask for better, AJ still gives me great odds (see the prior blogs) but with any A, K, Q, or 9 all good and ALL LIVE! I river the A for the stylish bust, and secretly feel both good and bad. I enjoy playing hands with the Czar, but I have kicked a dangerous player to the curb while demonstrating superior poker savvy to him and the rest of the table which may tilt the scales next time we are at a table together. Excuse me while I kiss the sky.
I had given the Czar too much respect the first encounter. I was cautious enough against his big stack to push all in with AA on a 7 8 8 flop instead of slow trapping him on one hand early, and let him outplay me on a limped pot when the flop hit 10 7 7 two clubs, I have the J9 clubs for the straight flush draw, and just called each bet flop and turn to his bets just to miss the river and be bet out, I would show my monster draw and he would show me his J9 off suit. We would laugh about it, but I lost 10,000 chips on the approach to the final table, limiting my resources to a short stack at the final to finish 5th and watch him take it down.
Knowledge is power and revenge is sweet. The table may very well be turned between me and the Czar. His skill was being very difficult to put on a hand. Seeing him being outplayed and frustrated is very powerful information.
Okay, enough about Czar Nick. The Beaver/Donkey is next.
Anytime you can find a player to target for chips in a tournament (see the Donkey to my Right blog) is WONDERFUL.
It is not long after adios to the Czar that I wake up early to see QQ and raise to 400: the blinds remain 75/150. I am very pleased to see Beaver make the call, less pleased to see an A 3 2 flop.
I check to the Beaver. The Beaver checks back.
The turn is another 3. I decide to test the waters, and bet 1000, the size of the pot. Beaver/Donkey elects to minraise to 2000. Oh Please Lady of Luck do not let this donkey suck out on me too! I scream silently, but there is no way I am going to let this fool outplay me holding QQ just because of this flop.
The river is garbage, like a 7 or something, and I check. Beaver bets 2500. I don't really know if I am simply pissed off, have a read, maybe from the checked flop, or just refuse to give this guy credit for anything other than 7J. "I just can't put you on an Ace" I say as I make the call, show the QQ, force a disgusted muck, and look like a hero to my fellow mumblers at the other end of the table. Lets just say I had no spidey sense tingling me to trouble, just a gut that said don't lay down to this braying, big eared, bucktoothed, paddle-tailed freak of nature.
"Easiest pot I ever took down," I choose to brag, Beaver/Donkey style, but it wasn't. I can't put him on a hand, but I can't put him on an ace when he is simply playing his float pattern predictably on me too.
This hand helped define my table image, and put Beaver/Donkey on semitilt. With an ordinary stack, his style exposed to the table, and a COMPLETE INCAPACITY TO SHIFT GEARS, his opponents know exactly when to push back and force him to fold. 3 hands, and not very long between them, later, or Beaver/Donkey is done, and I broke the donkey's back.
That 2500 bet wasn't a bad bet mind you. For him, he was forcing me into one of those threshold calls I was talking about at the beginning. For, assuming I was certain I had him, I really couldn't have extracted more. A minraise probably induces the fold, as does an all in, and effectively the 2500 bet makes a good stab and a nice pot without putting the rest of his stack at risk. But I really got much better overall value to my own reputation as well as destruction to his by calling and showing QQ on an A high board and forcing his muck. If I was Beaver, and had a lower PP there, I probably show my hand so I can at least save some face that I thought my opponent had no ace and missed the flop, I suppose, but with no draw on the board for me to credibly represent, and I know he had far less than a PP, he really was hung by his own predictability. There were only two kinds of hands I could have had, both of which are in trouble on that flop out of position, the good PP and the suspect A high. If he said he thought his 99 was good, nobody would believe him and those who did would think he's a rank amateur used to playing $5 games online.
Beaver/Donkey is probably a Greg Raymer fan. Mr. Raymer bluffed his way to a WSOP bracelet, but watch him play on the PPT and see how his bluffing floating style fails against a table of experienced pros and you get my point. I'm a Gus Hanson fan. Truly unpredictable play which disguises and masks and confuses. He's too crazy for me, but I am experimenting with some more aggressive play while still freerolling from last week.
Okay, how to bluff and how to bust the bluff....introductory....its late, and it was a long tournament, so this will continue soon.
When the Lady of Luck comes in riding a donkey, offer her a ride.
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