Tournament Survival: getting in good with "trouble hands"

Well, lately its been limping, grind, and short stacking deep into tournaments. And we've all faced this situation: staring down a K10 spades or 88 and having to make that tournament defining decision: time to push or time to fold?

When all is said and done, you hope for a live K10, but you know you have to hit to win, and AK, KQ, and KJ all have you dominated. 30% is bad money, and all those hands are capable of calling depending on the player and his situation. Remember, you're short stacked and a call is a reasonable prospect given the price of poker in these crucial late rounds. If the blinds are 300-600 and I have 7000-8000 chips, my price might be too high, but if I'm down to 4000, I really have to get my cards in good.

You need to count cards every time you consider getting in. Did two people limp in, or consider limping in then fold? They probably dumped or are playing one or your live cards or straight outs QJ, JK, A10. If there are two already in the pot, K10 is probably dominated in one direction and missing straight outs in the other, and one of them will call if the price is right. Keep in mind that there are big pair limp trappers out there. Just because you're short stacked and folding and waiting no reason not to be paying full attention to the manner of a player's limp in. Early limp ins are so often traps, but the deliberate manner in the play and careful observation should at least clue you into risk. Limping in might be a better choice if you insist on seeing a flop if you can't give up the opprtunity to win.

I have found that in any sophisticated tournament situation, such as late in any live tournament, the early position limp trap is so prevalent that the players who act after and want to play their cards will limp in themselves, risking BB specials in exchange for position post flop. These good players have a great post-flop game, usually, so your choice to limp and see a flop will see a flop, but you are troubled by three things: the possible early limp trap, the possible BB special, and the superior post flop player in position. You're going to have to flop pretty big to get paid here. 20% of your stack to gamble on K10 in middle position is a bad investment as a limp in: its a worse investment as a raise all in given the same hands which coordinated with yours and would have seen a cheap flop still represent dead outs for your crappy K10, or QJ, or similar difficult hand.

The only real place for K10 is a late position steal (short stacked) or early position steal (medium stacked at a tight, preferably short (7-8 player) table, where it actually has a prospect of being the closest thing to a premium hand dealt). K10 is therefore NOT a CALLING HAND or a RAISING HAND if you can expect a call (short stacked to a limper, ex). You need a deeper stack to play it effectively. Pick a better spot if you can.

On the other hand, a small pair can be HUGE in these situations. Once again, beware of limp traps, but in a situation where there has been a RAISE and at least one CALL (particularly where you read some hesitation from the caller, or worry from the raiser after the call) you may be able to read whether two A-high hands are in ahead of you. More often than not, in these deep-tournament situations, the raiser probably had the weaker ace (say AJ) and the caller has the better AQ or AK. In other words, the most likely situation when you push all in with a pair is that the original raiser will fold (because he was already worried about the call, and the call acts last) and the caller will call you (because AQ and AK on paper (aka Phil Gordian math) look like a very good gamble on a smaller pair and a very good call on a weaker ace).

SO MUCH of this analysis depends on your observation skills and ability to read your opponents (see every other instructive blog for a million examples). You do NOT want to rumble your 66 against AA or KK who smooth called to disguise strength. Use all your weapons to test strength. Ask for a chip count.

Here's another trick, especially when you expect a slow play big hand. Ask for the count before looking at your own cards. Focus yourself on the count and the demeanour of the player as the chips are counted. I don't care if you have 84 off in the hole here, and an instant fold when you see the cards. You have done a few things for your game here:

(1) Established a good poker habit which focuses and improve your observation skills generally and gives you important observations of a player you may need to call or reraise later if not now;
(2) Generally pissed off the player, since he knows you haven't looked at your cards: hopefully, you can geta good tilt response. If it did get under his or her skin, exploit this. I am not afraid of a little table talk, if I can get into a player's head. Ex: I am playing in the usual monday game. A player I am familiar with was at my starting table, and we was bragging about being so close to a final table in the last big series. Just big table talk. He then gets on a lucky streak, and at one point his K5 off played from middle position hits 2 pair and knocks out the player in the BB who hit a BB special smaller 2 pair. He isn't playing well, he's just getting lucky. And, eventually starts paying off. At one point he is in a battle of the blinds: he had raised from the BB and the SB made the call. He will have A10, his opponent Q-rag. The flop is Q high, no Ace, no 10, and the bragger bets to a check and is called. The next card is junk, SB checks, A10 bets, SB check raises all in for now a reasonably serious price. A10 cant get off the concept of his preflop superiority, and calls and doubles up Q rag. And then he comments about how he played Q rag against a raise as being bad play. He got outplayed because he assumed he had to be called with something (any small pocket pair has him beat there too of course) and then was upset that his opponent knew Q paired no kicker was the best hand because A10 was outread and outplayed. So I see that A10 is the kind of guy who can dish it out and can't take it. So I have to respond to his comment with a comment about his K5 victory being just as loose. And was he offended! Perfect. Can dish it out, can't take it. I can put a guy like this off his game to get paid. And did.
(3) Gotten an extra look at the original raiser, who is now reacting to both the count, the player's reaction to the count, and your show of strength by acting for a count: if you see weakness, ask this player for a count too!
(4) You're making a habit of asking for a count routinely rather than only when you have a potential calling hand, so there is no special tell because you asked for a count;
(5) If you haven't seen your cards you can't give off any tells of your own.
(6) Ideally you have obtained the time and information to understand where your opponents stand, which will very much help you decide whether this is your time if you do see a calling hand in the hole.

Now, here is the most important thing: You have looked before you leapt, and now you see 88. Best hand in an hour.

PUT ON THE BRAKES IMMEDIATELY.

This is how I went from top 10 to bust out in the Coast to Coast main event in day two. It was a TIGHT,TOUGH table in day two FULL OF QUALITY STACKS. I had few hands, and was just milking 50-60k and not improving. An All-in to a small raise and call with AK. An outplay with 99 and position on a AAJ flop for a medium pot. I was over tired from the adrenaline of the day before, but still playing my game.

Two my left are two older players, late forties or so. The table seems to have picked nemeses: I have butted heads with the guy across from me (for asking for a blind count). The two players to my left have squared off. And these two. I have been watching intently. The player closest to me (L) has had position and has used it very well to bully his opponent to the right (R). They have done this 2 or three times.

In this particular hand, R has the button, L the SB, I am the BB. The play folds to R, and he raises. This is an obvious steal situation. L looks at his cards, and is clearly intent on playing sheriff. R's raise was to 6000 (1/10 of the stack), the re-raise from L to 25000. It is clear L intends to take this down preflop. But is he that strong, or just strong enough to play sheriff?

One of the problems here is that I have never seen either player showdown a hand to help establish a pattern. But this has gone on for at least 2 minutes, I have formed an impression: R is stealing, L has a big enough hand to play sheriff, but weak enough to want to take it down preflop. He is not gambling here, and does not intend to gamble.

So my impression is AJ to AK.

I look at my hole cards. I see 88 and immediately push. I'd seen enough, right?

WRONG. R folds instantly, and L only semi-reluctantly makes the call. He has 10 10.

YOU SURE DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO DO THIS ANALYSIS POST-HAND WHEN YOU WERE AMONG THE LAST 50 PLAYERS IN A $2700 BUY IN MAIN EVENT WITH 50000 CHIPS AND BLINDS OF 1000-2000!

L had about 75,000 chips. His raise made him deeply committed to the pot. I was not going to induce a fold here. I have been in this situation myself re-raising from the SB with AJ and running into the BB. A pair as big as 10 10 is a real big hand in this three-way situation. AJ would also make the call.

At best, in other words, AT VERY BEST, my 88 is up against R and L BOTH holding Ax, ONE CALLER, and a MADE HAND of mine against 5 outs (66% to win) AND GUARANTEED I am in for my tournament life on a coin flip or a handicapped coin flip.

If I deliberate my cards just a little here, I can gauge a reaction and get that more of a read. Maybe I just pick a better spot.

R will disclose he had 77. If L had folded, R was the weaker player, and a raise from me has the right effect. But my reads were all wrong, and I had an opportunity to gauge their hands a little further, the alarm goes off and I pick a better spot.

The ultimate point is this: a full and complete picture (too many people want to see a flop in a barely raised or limped in situation, and the original raiser looks concerned) should say that your pocket pair is WAY AHEAD because your opponents need to catch each others cards. I remember such a read once, where I put my QQ in against AK and AK: another time, where I called a small raise with JJ, then watched a guy seriously consider his hand (I correctly read AJ) while another raised all in (correctly read as AK), causing raiser 1 (AQ) to fold, me to recognize that JJ was WAY AHEAD ( 72% or so). He caught a K, but the other players confirmed my read was perfect. The last time, I had 99 in the BB and went all in: only AK (3x blind original raiser) called called, and I announced he had dead cards: I caught a 9 on the flop, and watch his 4 flush river pair the board so that my full house beat his flush, but without an A or K to be found anywhere.

This, my friends, is how very good players play small pairs seemingly "fearlessly" in apparent "coin-flip" situations. They have accurately read their situation: Go Ask Al: he can tell you a story about calling for all his chips with 33 against AK and AQ and tripling up.

Sick, dude.

Happy pokering.

Back to talk about...renovations?

Truth be told, the month of September has only indirectly been about poker. The poker table demanded renovations! The first two pics had been conveniently selected to minimize the decrepit state of my dining room. Many hours of renovations later, hard work pays off. Third picture is my new dining room, inspired by the themes and beauty of the Crummer custom poker table.

Don't buy a Crummer custom table if you're not prepared to built a space suitable for it!

Well, I can't work three jobs. I only have one meager online $1300 prize to report so far this month, but it paid for the renovation materials and my ski pass for the winter.

The moral to this message is the same as the same and my poker message: hard work, patience, and attention to detail and the keys to success in this game and in renovations and in life. This room is a symbol of these ingredients. Time to leave the construction zone and get back into the poker zone....

More to follow as I play some satellites on the way to the BC poker championships. I also provided a free roll into a satellite as top prize in the debut game on the custom table. Hopefully, we can track Derek E's success along with mine over the next two months.

Been a while

Yes, been a lazy blogger. Never did finish the Coast to Coast main event story. The bluff and suckout for a huge pot to end the night. or the bad read with 88 to end the tournament.

Since, however, that experience has improved my patience, mental stamina, and most importantly, my poker face. $10,000 in 30 days in 3 separate midlevel tournaments not so shabby. We are leading to the BC poker championships, and I promise to write....

THE REAL NEWS

THE TABLE OF TABLES

Check out Crummer Poker Tables y'all. Maybe I can figure out the pics and the link up to make it easy on you. This bad baby is 100% custom designed and made by the owner of the company...my little reminder of what poker can accomplish and what it's yet to accomplish....

Main Event $3000 part II (of....): levels 3, 4 and 5

Back to the action.

I am disappointed but not dismayed at the break ending level 2. Big John and and Trailer Mouth have some nice stacks, I am among the poor with about 11,000 chips. I am not fond of being understacked at any stage of a tournament. It seriously limits my ability to speculate with interesting cards. But I had made some terrific reads, leading to good folds (calls? I wish).

When I raised 50/100 blinds to 375 with 10 10, and Trailer Mouth called with position, I put him on AK. When the flop was K garbage rainbow, I checked, and he value bet 500, I told him "the only hand I can put you on is AK", and mucked. Out of respect for the read, he confirmed it. He also told me he didn't have a clue how I played. Perfect scenario, but Trailer Mouth would actually avoid being in pots with me the rest of the day. He knew I had his number. Fact is, I told everyone else what his number was, and he confirmed it. He would play only lucky hands where people slammed into KK.

TJr will make a valiant effort to play his way out of his 2000 chip crisis point, until he runs into Trailer Mouth's KK. Say no more. Let's speak of his replacement.

He is an older guy, maybe 50, and his stack is similar to mine. He is immediately to my left. His stack, position, and newness make him a potential threat, but I will make a few plays and observations which will prove critical. Lets call him Small Ball, as that is how he plays

I have limped in with A9 for 100. We are late in level 2 (yes, this is titled levels 3 and 4, but let me set it up first). Small Ball raises to 300.

I HATE this raise. My limp in early position, and a 3x blind raise that simply invites not only my call, but every tom, dick, and harriet (no ladies at this particular table) to see a flop too. It reeks of a semi-trap, but it still invites so many drawing hands into it. I am last of say, 5 people to call.

The flop is 10 10 9. There are so many people that a 10 is an open possibility, and I am third of 6 to act. With 2 in front checking, I really want to test my pair here. I make a "stay out of trouble" bet that I hope to be consistent with a value bet with a 10: 600 into a pot of 1800.

Small Ball raises my bet to 1500. The rest of the field told, leaving me heads up to contemplate the bet. My bet has served the purpose of identifying a trap. I invite you to always make at least a small bet into a pot like this to expose the guy who wants to trap his trips. A smooth call where there is no draw is a sure tell.

This raise is not trips. Trips can't resist the greed and fears scaring off the better, because only 99 or A10 can call or raise. In a multiway pot here, J10 can't be sure he isn't outkicked by Q 10, K 10 or A 10, all very reasonable hands in this pot.

I announce my read to Small Ball and the table. "QQ or 77 I say", several times. I take my time. "No way you have the 10" I say. Am I exposing my cards with my talk? Maybe, but I think I might talk this way in a trap too, to convince a player I am weak. Really, I want to get a tell. Eventually, I will say "I can't tell which, so I have to fold", but really I did get one. My exposition of the fact I did not hold a 10 made him very comfortable with his cards. He had the overpair, not the underpair. He will confirm it. "Somewhere in the middle," he exposes. The answer is pretty much an admission he had JJ. The only other option is 88 and he was too comfortable to be sweating it with 88.

Okay, JJ = weakass raise. Noted.

Shortly after that, Small Ball will get into trouble in a hand he limped AK in with. He will lose a smallish pot that checks down to expose the hand. It is my policy when I am playing "tricky" to put myself in a position to not have to expose a trap play, buy betting small on the river, or whatever. So now I know he wants to play big hands small and tricky.

But Small Ball is not getting what he needs playing small and tricky. He will soon be a shorter stack than I, and this is how we will sit coming into level 3.

I myself want to play some tricky poker in order to maximize the ability to win a big pot to climb back to a reasonable position. I do not like the fact that 11,500 only doubles to 23,000 and remains a modest stack.

So, in a very similar situation in early position I am first to enter the pot and I hold QQ. Even though the blinds are only 75/150, I am prepared to trap, and simply complete the 150. Then things get interesting.

Small Ball announces a raise. He has the authority in his voice of a man who has found a hand to play with. He bets....ugh 500. Blech. Can this guy get out of his small ball game?

Interesting development....Big John, who is now seeing a LOT of flops because he has a LOT of chips (at least 35,000, maybe more) is in the BB and makes the weak bet call.

I am not particularly fond of this situation. I don't want a cheap ass, three way pot holding QQ, and I know Small Ball has a hand to call a raise or reraise with (but NOT AA or KK: you know I know, and if you don't, there are about 43 blogs behind this one to explain how I know: If you still have to ask, you'll never know, but at least you tried, and I thank you for reading). So I do what is generally considered a tell, a trap exposure, a reraise, to a reasonable sum, 1500. This was a VERY USEFUL BET. Small ball JUST CALLS, confirming he does not have AA or KK, because his call involves uncertainty. He has no idea what I have. Big John, still the flop monster calling station will also JUST MAKE THE CALL. He needs to see a flop, but I think its clear to him he is now hoping to catch a huge flop to check raise these needy short stacks with. Anyway, I put Small Ball on AK, which he now needs to be best hand, because his rope is thinning. He has about 8,000 left

Fine.

Flop time.

A Q 3

WOW, except for one little problem..........

ALL SPADES.

I have flopped amazing, but I will in no goddam way give up this 4500 pot which I created and I flopped to some flishy suckout ["flish" origin: mine. definition: some "fish" who will pay any amount to chase a flush and then catches it on the river; also describes the result of a a flish hitting that river..."That goddam flish caught his flish on the goddam river:]

I IMMEDIATELY recognise this as NOT A MADE FLUSH situation. This is just experience, but let me break it down: Big John LOVES calling with pocket pairs. He will legitimately check the flop, being first to act (and we have seen how he will small bet the nuts before), and I see clear disappointment on his face: if he had 88 (reasonable here) he wanted a small, small flop, or trips. Board way to big and way too scary, and he is good enough to know that that A is a killer.

His check being a clear surrender, AK of course CANNOT be of spades! The A on the board is a spade, duh! But there is no way I am giving up this pot to Small Ball, or allowing Big John to speculate with the 8 of spades (unlikely, but if the price and read are right...). My concern is that Small Ball's holding one big spade, and will try to manage the pot size until he hits.

The response: don;t get greedy. 4500 in the pot, about 9300 left. Take this sucka down with best hand while it is still clearly the best hand. What better form of protection than a bet that only the nuts (or someone nuts) can call?

ALL IN

Dealer counts my chips out. They lay there on the felt, begging to be taken.

Then something wonderful, magical, a miracle, happens.

Three breaths later...

Small Ball can't lay his AK down here. He needs to win a pot. He has NO IDEA WHY I WENT ALL IN! HE CALLS!

"set of ladies" I announce and turn over. He looks tragically shaken. You have a spade? I ask. He doesn't. Then he does something that really, really, really warms me to this guy.

He surrenders. He musks his cards. He doesn't pray for a miracle suckout and watch for it to happen. He concedes he was outplayed and outflopped, and walks from the table.

We all know, in detail, about the ULTIMATE SUCKOUT. The runner runner OMG 1.6% that turned final table gold into done in 7th. Read all about it, and how it led to my finding poker zen. Trailer Mouth, of course, champion of the little guy that he is, advocates staying at the table to watch runner runner spades split the pot, but very much appreciate the gesture of the beaten to accept he was beaten and thus maintain dignity in the face of defeat.

(as an aside, Amy, the donkey regular who was the recipient of that bad beat, when at the table together the next week, had forgotten all about it. I imagine the rest of her final table experience was forgettable too. She bad, bad poka playa. She have bad bad, poka face. She neva find Poka Zen if Poka Buddha slap her in face. I read this in a fortune cookie)

I will sit tight with my 22000 chips. It looks better, it feels better, but I have a lot of work to do. I will wait out my next double up opportunity.

In the meantime, I will watch Big John make big mistakes in big pots. He is playing TOO MANY POTS. He is trying to outplay people, but the table is quite sophisticated. One guy, already on the short stack after, like me, having to make good fold after good fold, and holding QQ from the BB, in a marginally raised pot with a low, garbage flop checks to the original raiser a big guy named Ryan (real name), who bets value, 600, leading to a raise to 2000, and then a reraise at it turns to him of 5000. When the original raiser, a good guy also looking for a spot, after some deliberation, and very much to my surprise, goes all in, this guy in the BB really goes in the tank, puts the re-re-reraiser on KK and folds his QQ! He has only 5000 left and he folds QQ! And out or respect, our re-re-raiser exposes his KK! This is how sharp this table is. I DID NOT put the guy on KK. To his credit, he had set up his raise by raising early with weaker hands earlier in the day, and there was no tell-tale as far as I can tell.

This is like, for many of us, going from undergrad to lawschool. We are used to having it easy, then we get tossed in with a bunch of brilliant players who test our egos and our skills.

Big John cannot outplay this table. Other than Trailer Mouth, who only plays huge hands and otherwise talks incessantly (he will GET VERY VERY ANNOYING, either telling us how to play poker, telling the dealer how to deal, or discussing Canadiana with his his disinctly redneck point of view. These are not your homeys, Cracker. Learn how to be PC in public dude. And yes I did pay for that call I made on the river, asshole), Big John is a small fish in a big pond. His first HUGE MISTAKE comes when what appears to be a buddy of his arrives to fill a vacancy beside him and to his left in seat 6.

Here is a VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON. Chinese males, in pots together, insist on pissing matches. Very, very, very small penis syndrome, I think. You can't reraise me, I reraise. Very much to their detriment. Lets discuss this. It will happen alot and be very relevant to my tournament results.

Okay. Big John's Buddy (lets call him Bud) is a creative player. He likes to outplay, but he always takes his time to reason and judge. He is also loose aggressive, and you can tell these guys know each other's game.

Bud has the button, and raises. Big John has the small blind. He clearly has a hand and reads the steal, and reraises. 1200 have become 6000. Bud thinks....then makes the call. The flop is 9 8 4ish and Big John, with big hand, continue bets, but, as he does, for value. Bud will deliberate and make the call.

These guys will bet, check, checkraise, blah blah, all the way to the river. The cards never get higher than 9. There is at least 20k in the pot. Bud will not let go of this pot, and Big John is first to act.

Big John has fired 3 bullets already. I SEE CLEARLY that he has built a big pot which he has MISSED but this investment can only be taken down with a bet. IT IS REALLY OBVIOUS that he has been lured into a big pot by a big ego problem. HE NOW HAS TO BET THE RIVER big enough to be credible and small enough to save his chips.

Big John bets 6000 on the river. Bud deliberates, AND JUST CALLS. He takes his time. He figured Big John out and turns over his A8 in response to big John's sooted AQ.

A very good player, perhaps one who knows his opponent too well, can read when his small ace which has hit the flop, perhaps for 2nd or 3rd pair, is ahead against the big ace. I have done this MANY TIMES. AK is in real trouble against A5 when the flop is 10 9 5, and if A5 knows what his man has, and AK keeps firing bluffets (new term: bullets fired when you hand is actually dead), A5 can check raise all in and get paid sometimes postflop.

So Huge MISTAKE BIG JOHN! Thanks for the info, baby.

Big John still has big chips, about 40 thousand. For now.

Dinner break time. I and Ryan wind up sharing a dinner table and discuss how lucky we are in this tough field that our big hands won us big enough pots to stay ahead of this game.

Soon after the break, blinds not 150/300 no ante, I get my real opportunity. I am first to open the pot in middle position and hold gold: KK. With 5 or 6 players to act, I need value here. I can't limp this in, and risk too many in the pot, and the chip stacks are now so troubled I can expect a raise. I elect a modest raise, to 800.

It is a good thing that I played pots early, sometimes raised, and limped in the QQ. It really disquises a hand. Many players will avoid a tricksy opponent they can't read. Trailer Mouth is smart enough to know he's not my calibre of player.

Big John, however, is a bit tilty now. He has squandered, oh say, 33,000 (wow, that's a lot) and still has 40,000 to play with. He refuses to really alter his game, and insists on playing a lot of hands. He is in the big blind and will make the call.

Big John is playing a wide variety of hands. He has a good poker face except when he thinks he's in trouble. I really have no idea what he called with.

The flop is 9 clubs, 8 clubs, 4 diamonds, a good, not a great flop for KK. 89 has two pair, 99 has me killed, 88 likewise, and 10 J clubs has a MONSTER DRAW. He could have any of those hands, and I need to know.

Big John will check the flop. I need information. I make a very standard bet in this situation, a bet I like a lot.

The pot being 1700, I bet 1200. Cheap to my opponent, and pot odds for most draws. Why offer pot odds? (A) If he flopped enormous, I should pick it up from his response. He has check raised and can do it again (B) I often can put a guy on a draw by inviting the call to see the draw.

Big John just calls. There is something he likes about his hand, and I am not sure what it is. HE DOES NOT HAVE A SET OR TWO PAIR. I don't see confidence: he has a hand, but he has concerns.

What we will discover, is that he does not have a clue what I have.

The turn is fantastic. 3 of hearts. No improvement for him, and he checks.

I am NOT LETTING OUR CALLING STATION SEE A CHEAP RIVER. He has me outstacked, I feel that KK is huge NOW, I have the chips to really set him off.

I'M ALL IN

The dealer counts out my remaining chips. 21,000 chips are protecting my 2000 chip investment to win a 4200 chip pot.

Big John is comfused. I am unresponsive. "Why so much?" he thinks aloud. "why so much?" He can't figure my bet out, but he has told me something. He has something good, but something less than the nuts.

He is thinking aloud about the range of hands I could have. A set maybe. What he doesn't put into play is how I have read him. What he has represented. A big stack willing to pay to catch a big draw.

But it is clear he doesn't have a big draw, he has a big hand short of the nuts. He really doesn't want to lay his hand down. The only thing I reveal, as he deliberates out loud, is me breaking the tension by stating "well, now I know what you have [an overpair, and only one of those beats me and calls instantly]". He responds to this with some desperation about how me knowing what he has isn't really what matters right now. This, if he had been attentive enough to notice, caused me to relax a bit and enjoy the tiniest, tiniest of smiles. I think he is going to call, and I know he is beat.

He does. It took 5 minutes but he exposes JJ. The river is trash. I double through and become table captain and chip leader.

Big John, having flamed out in the middle rounds trying to parlay early round luck, will fall victim to a big pair within 30 minutes of me cracking him back down to 20,000 chips.

I now have close to 50,000 chips and I can finally, finally, finally, feel relaxed. 150/300 blinds, hour levels, I have a huge stack. I can play any game I want and this table will fear my bets. Very Very VERY good situation to be in.

Do not lament Big John. I like Big John. He, like I, will learn much from his experience in the Main Event. He is a bright guy and a good player. He will probably tilt for a month over squandering that huge, easily won stack, but he will be stronger for it and I will respect his next bet should we next joust.

I will end the night's discussion there. Part 3 will be....interesting....

The Full Monty: $3000 main event (part 1 of however many it takes)

Hey there!


Okay, I'm in a talkabout poker mood now, so lets walkabout a couple of hands.

I have VERY LITTLE to say about the $1000.00 preliminary event other than I liked the structure generally (10000 chips and 45 minute levels) and that it played more like a regular weekly in slowed down, big stack form. I played a little too conservative, and regret a few pushouts when could have trapped. Not a perfect example of Poker Monster play, but I did get the heebie jeebies out. A good warm for the main event. Lasting 7.5 hours without really having quality hands in real payoff situations is a credit to my game. It was frustrating watching people pay off the guy to my left when he got paid off early flopping quad 9s and letting 55 catch a full house at the end, then people, over and over, walking into KK KK, KK, AK, and KK which he happened to be holding when they pushed in desperation. Must be nice to have a game handed to you.

I grinded out small pot after small pot, and chipped to about 22,000 at peak on the basis of strong post-flop play, but the only race I was in was my last hand. A lack of cards/action through the last 2 hours forced my stack down to 11,500, simply an unacceptable quantify 30 minutes left into day 1 with 600/1200 blinds commencing day two. I was not greedy: I had a simple goal of 30k ending day one, enough to be able to remain patient, but I wasn't going to limp into day 2 and pray I catch AA or KK and action in the first 2.5 hours while watching my chips ante and blind off. When a player I knew well raised 3x the blind UTG I knew he had a hand: he only plays PPs or AK in that position this late in the game, but when play folds to me and I have AQ, I know I'm unlikely to see better in the next 15 minutes, and I'd rather take the day off and rest up for the main event than bother getting up the next day. I am exhausted. Playing constantly from the mediocre stack means playing for your life potentially in every pot you play. AQ good enough. QQ good enough to call. I really don't care. More luck to him.

Better luck to me in the main event.

It was a good warm up, and I take the day off completely to rest my poor dehydrated brain. As a result I am well rested with a good night sleep and a good feel for how to get through a long day of poker in what will be a slower, deeper, more serious game.

My initial plan is to get involved early. I have 15000 chips, and levels one and two are 25/50 and 50/100. I DO NOT WANT A TIGHT IMAGE. I want two things: A good feel for my opponents at the table, and and opportunity to exploit my creative skills with interesting hands while the price is right to play them. It will turn out that my game does not result in any chip improvement, but my chip investments will turn out extremely valuable in information used to make critical plays later.

Much of the table play will centre on BIG JOHN, a late 20's oversized Chinese guy who sits in seat 7: I am in seat one. In this first, absolutely critical hand, BIG JOHN is in the big blind. There has already been a limper in the pot, blinds are 25/50, and I hold K10 off suit: a marginal hand, but dirt cheap to play, so I limp in too. The guy beside me, who has a voice and look of a 40-something TJ Cloutier (TJr, if you will) also limps in. There may be another limper or two: The pot is unraised, and BIG JOHN simply checks.

The flop is K 8 3 rainbow. There is no draw at all and I have top pair. I have no feel for the other players in the pot. I have an acceptable hand in a limped in pot. It might be the best hand.

BIG JOHN makes a small bet: 150. I make a smooth call. TJr makes the call too. All others get out.

I have no idea where I stand. BIG JOHN is inscrutable. My impression is that was a top pair no kicker standard probe bet from the blinds. I cannot understand why the smooth call to my left. I am, however, suspicious. There is no draw on the board.

The turn is a trash card. BIG JOHN makes a decent bet: 600. With 600 in the pot, the pot size bet doesn't scare me. I make the call, but I am still suspicious. I am prepared to call some value bets until the river here, but then TJr then does something VERY SURPRISING.

There is an aura of "enough is enough" now emerging from TJr. His demeanour had been very calm, but now it is agitated. Then he BETS BIG. 6500! WTF?????

I have already seen him play some weird hands. He could easily have K8 or K3 suited. As far as my standing in this hand, something is very wrong.

it gets worse (for him). BIG JOHN now emerges from his shell. He has the look. The agitation. He is ALL IN

?????!!!!!!!

"I know where I stand in this hand" I say as I lay down. TJr is in the tank briefly, but makes the call. With AA.

TJr is beat. BIG JOHN turns over 88, and TJr is crippled.

This early boon for BIG JOHN is both his blessing and his curse.

Soon after, again BIG JOHN is in the BB in a limped in or barely raised pot. A VERY READABLE player, a white guy with a trailer park attitude who talks too much (Trailer Mouth is a good name) is in the pot with him.

The flop is 494 and BIG JOHN makes a small bet Trailer Mouth makes a small call. He has a demeanour, tho, of a big hand. I can see it.

The turn is a 6. BIG JOHN makes a MEDIUM BET of 800. He is betting VERY SIMILARLY to the prior hand. Trailer Mouth makes a value raise (obviously, I can see he has a monster hand) to 2000. BIG JOHN makes a cautious call.

The river is irrelevant. BIG JOHN looks suspicious, and checks. Trailer Mouth makes a solid bet of 5000 (his best play of the night...he is a shitty, abc player with no poker face who will get lucky a couple of times waking up with KK against a pot committed player's raise, but he thinks he's a player. He's just a yokel playing by the book) This bet is pot size, but very big in relation to the timing of the game and the preciousness of our starting stack, but he is not at risk.

BIG JOHN is in the tank briefly, but agonizing makes the big call. he has a big hand. 66. Trailer Mouth has 99.

BIG JOHN practically is crying. He put his man on 99. He had probe-bet the flop (as any would, a good flop for 66) and his gut said 99. Even turning the full house, his gut said SLOW DOWN. He feels like he dodged a bullet.

BIG JOHN had his head up and was in the zone, but refused to fully trust his instincts. That gut will save you every time! Maybe 1/2 his gut wanted to to prove the other 1/2 right, but this semi mistake will be the first of several critical ones. (I am leading up to something....) BIG JOHN will become rather flustered and confused as his head and his gut continue to battle....

I will continue the tragic story of Big John very shortly.....

Tournament Update: short version

Well, 20 hours and 3 days of poker later, yours truly is knocked out in 50th place in the main event after entering day 2 in a very healthy 10th place with 67600 chips. 4 hours of no cards later, 88 looked very very good in the BB while two jerks were overbattling from the button and small blind and ignoring me.

10 10, having overbet to 25000 to sheriff the button steal, found himself committed to my remaining 56k when, after analyzing these two most of the day and on this particular hand, I liked what I saw in front and in the hole.

If both these dudes are A high I am big favorite. I knew I was going to get called. There is a time in every tournament to gamble.

I sleep now. The time to fully debrief will come.

Tournament Eve ramblings: Stay cool, m....f.... y'all know the rules

Okay! 1 sleep til main event jr commences tomorrow. I really like the fact that this $1000.00 event is just a warm up to the $3000.00 event.

I also like the fact that I cleaned house last friday playing with the bros, and survived a field of 1000 in a $1 turbo rebuy online yesterday to parlay $5 total buy in into $450 coming in 3rd.

These cheap turbo rebuys (UB has always had one: the new schedule made it a $5000 guaranteed and starts it at 9:00 UB time)have always been a bit of bread and butter for me. I think I've won a dozen outright. But this one is a bit different with such a large field and big pot relative to cost. Given that, after a recent withdrawal, my UB account was a bit short and I had squandered some more expensive opportunities that day, and once I had gotten a decent stack, I committed to playing strong and making a run at it.

Playing strong does not always mean playing strong cards: it means putting your chips in in a few fair fights and gambling. K8 looks huge when you're constantly running from blinds which keep creep at 1/10 of your stack no matter how often you seem to be improving. Sometimes it is just a matter of making sure you are heads up with 2 live cards. Throwing in with A4 is never a smart move: it practically guarantees being a 30% dog if called, and often in these, calls have to be expected. No one lays down AQ or 99 in these things. 96 sooted is in a fair fight with AQ.

This is good comparable pressure to what I expect to face in the next 5 days. In these games, I may be looking at 45 minute and one hour levels, and 2-3 hours before the levels reach 1% of the starting stacks, but the time will come when a bad beat puts me in desperation mode and forces me into more gambling and erratic play.

I find that a little erratic play is MORE effective in protecting your blinds than tight play. If I will call or raise with 69 and gamble, will you attempt to steal with A7? I will have to play fearless and follow my guts and my reads where I sense weakness to win this. BLuffs are post-flop plays: these are gambles.

Let us, on a similar topic to last big blog, discuss the opposite, bluffs that are traps. We discussed a number of cases of how to get paid with trips: let me give you a great example of how I parlayed 4000 chips into 13000 chips in one hand when the blinds were 150/300 in last week's Wednesday $100 casino game.

These stories emphasize the key importance of live play strategies vs. online. I did some magnificent trapping online yesterday with AAs and KKs to maximize chip results in the turbo, but that's easy. Keeping your cool and shifting gears effectively in live play to maximize requires, mainly experience and understanding.

I am in the BB. I have paid 300, leaving me 3700 in chips. I am a mediocre stack with one viable play left in any raised pot.

UTG limps in. He will not be a factor in the hand.

The next player has double my chips, and limps in. He is an older white guy, and my observations put him at a pretty conservative player. Lets call him Steve.

Beside him is an older oriental guy, the kind of guy who will raise any ace. Lets call him Joe. Joe has about 10,000 chips. He limps in.

Play folds to me, including the SB, and I now wake up to look at AA.

Rockets in the pocket, three players interested in a flop, and I will play out of position the whole hand. Opportunity is at hand, but with only 1350 in the pot, 300 my own, the last thing I want to do is scare off my opponents. If I panic, wait to long, or get that buzz that says monster going, I will get nothing but the limps.

"I'll raise" I say calmly. How much? I don't announce immediately. I sense the limpers are watching me. I decide that the "standard raise", to 900, is right here. I do not wish to take enormous time debating this. I want my raise to be done quickly and efficiently, without spills, nervous ticks, or obvious deliberation suggesting "how do I get paid here?"

This is a good bet and a bad bet:

The good:

- With one or two callers, I build a pot of 2550-3150, allowing me to bet the pot with my remaining chips on the flop:
- It is standard enough to be relatively meaningless: it is a value raise, but looks to the unfamiliar as a weak steal attempt from someone who needs to get some chips and lacks much experience to know that this sum is too small to steal, when pot odds of 600 into 1950 supports anyone with 30% to win calling even if they knew I had AA: the BB raise is also such a common steal, that I can raise here while disguising the strength of my hand

The bad:

- You put this value raise together with ANY tell common to holding KK or AA and a smart player picks up the warning signals and gives his hand up, so I gotta play cool, motherf*cker, y'all know the rules (see The Roots album, The Tipping Point: great song, and sort of THE POINT).
- I have offered great pot odds to all three players, one of whom is the loose and lucky type, and will have to play out of position against who knows how many callers, all of whom have invested in the pot and want to see a flop.

I get the good and the bad. All three call. We now have a nice pot of 3750. I have 3100 left. As soon as I see call #3, I am looking at my remaining chips. I am expecting that the whole thing will be in as soon as the flop comes down. I am not greedy. Maybe top pair will call. This is a good pot.

FREEZE

The flop

A spades
Q spades
6 hearts

GEAR SHIFT TIME

It was the best of flops. It was the worst of flops. Now is NOT the time to be indecisive.

What do you do here? Top possible set with flush draw on board and 3 players ahead?
Plan A is easy. Put your chips in. Practically guaranteed to get two folds, and a maybe call with a flush draw from a deep stack.

But lets face it. AA comes only once every so often, and even less when you need it. Flopping AAA is 11% of holding AA. Pretty damn rare. Right now, I have the nuts, subject to an outdraw, and 75% to win (keeping in mind if the board pairs, I am saved from a flush) means I can gamble my fate and take advantage here.

So I check.

I check quickly. I do not deliberate more than 7 seconds here, probably less. I need to be decisive, I need to be quick. I need to credibly CHECK (see last blog and PHil Hellmuth's comments on check tells: Jamie Gold, you should read this blog and learn something)

Why is a CHECK the right move? Any bet says "oh boy, an Ace, and since I have two of them, I will NOT get action given that I RAISED, and any ace in this pot limp-called, meaning weak kicker probably suited, and Ax spades for flush draw here is impossible) and NO ACTION is the result. AK protecting itself is the read, and the bet is respected.

A CHECK suggests one of two things, which are both VERY CREDIBLE: (1) my steal is a bust or (2) my JJ, 10 10, or 99 is a bust. A little bit of disappointment in my body language is all it takes.

So I check. UTG checks.

Steve bets. He is, hmmm, deliberate...confident....CALCULATED. Steve has A HAND. EVENTUALLY a solid 2500 comes out Hmmm....

My gut immediately suggests he flopped a set. limp followed by afforable raise by a call: small PP. This is not QQ. This is 66.

And let's comment on this bet, and compare it to the last big blog. He will turn out to have 66. A on board, raised pot, I have a set. I will get action, possibly from the desperate seeming raiser from the BB....bet value to raise the pot size.

GOOD BET

HANG ON....

Joe is thinking. He is playing with chips. He likes this flop. If I have AAA and Steve has 666, Joe has..oh oh..a draw. But I contemplated the draw when I decided to check, and I accepted my odds with the gamble.

While we wait fror Joe to respond, lets talk about my response. I am the semi-pot committed short stack who raised then checked. That 2500 bet is a lot of my stack. So I play with my stack. I separate 2500 in big chips from 600 in small chips. I weigh them in my hands. I continue to sell my hatred of this situation EVEN THOUGH Steve's eyes are on Joe and Joe's mind is on Steve's bet. The last thing I can do here is get excited.

Lets face it, nice big pot, Steve having made a bet that specifically made him NOT POT COMMITTED, if I have K 10 spades here, I LOVE that flop. Especially if I am a gambler. The size of the pot has become very tempting.

Joe will eventually RAISE ALL IN here. In the meantime, I am sitting there with apparent impatience, apparent contempt, apparent disgust. When Joe finally commits his stack, I with some hesitation, and apparent resignation, declare "looks like I'm priced in here." and put my chips in.

HERE'S WHAT IS IMPORTANT: even with only 600 of my chips left to call here, I stay in character. I don't spaz out and throw my chips in with excitement. But this is because AT NO TIME AM I ACTUALLY DISGUISING A HYPER, EXCITED ADRENALYZED STATE. I am calm, and remain calm.

LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR: I AM NO ACTOR. In drama class, I used to giggle through my lines.

Steve calls all in, and shows his 66. Joe has 64 of spades. While this improves his draw against my set slightly, by holding the case 6 preventing a 66 pair on the board, holding that 6 kills Steve's set, while I still have the case A, three Queens, or runner runner turn card to kill a flush. The computer says 69% to win, and I will take those odds any day to parlay 4000 chips to 13000 chips with 30 to go and blinds of only 130/300.

I WAS NOT ACTING. I hated my hand, my situation, my callers, that flop. I hated them because I have seen so many AA cracks. I have had Aces full of nines fall to quad nines. I have seen my trip AAA fall to flush draws, and QQQ fall to runner runner flushes. AA is so full of expectation, that the disappoinment of seeing them cracked is an easily available memory to use to calm you down. I had AA cracked earlier that night by 44 on a ridiculous 343 flop (ordinarily, I love a tiny paired board with a big overpair to protect me from a flopped 2 pair).

THE KEY TO THIS HAND was the experience I have, which allowed me to identify the scenario, shift gears, and make good swift decisions, all without giving off any information to disguise my monster flop. I was complemented by an observing player, who had no clue I was holding such a big hand.

I had to carry through this in a hand that, from start to finish, might have been 4-5 minutes in length.

Just remember: "I hate AA. I will get sucked out on." It is your mantra. AA is your hot date, but you know she said yes to you on a dare, and you'll get no action from her because you're out of her league and you both know it. You want her. You hate her. Even when she offers up a tease, hate her. Until you clear that river card, hate her like every hot coed you were afraid to ask out in college.

This is of course, not a suckout story. No runner runner 5th six, no spade.

During my ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, it occurs to me that my mark must have put me on a flush draw because of my bet and show with the prior hand drawing nut flush. Her instincts were dead wrong.

I saw her buying into tomorrow's tournament today when I picked up my tickets.

Good luck to me.