Tournament Survival: getting in good with "trouble hands"

Well, lately its been limping, grind, and short stacking deep into tournaments. And we've all faced this situation: staring down a K10 spades or 88 and having to make that tournament defining decision: time to push or time to fold?

When all is said and done, you hope for a live K10, but you know you have to hit to win, and AK, KQ, and KJ all have you dominated. 30% is bad money, and all those hands are capable of calling depending on the player and his situation. Remember, you're short stacked and a call is a reasonable prospect given the price of poker in these crucial late rounds. If the blinds are 300-600 and I have 7000-8000 chips, my price might be too high, but if I'm down to 4000, I really have to get my cards in good.

You need to count cards every time you consider getting in. Did two people limp in, or consider limping in then fold? They probably dumped or are playing one or your live cards or straight outs QJ, JK, A10. If there are two already in the pot, K10 is probably dominated in one direction and missing straight outs in the other, and one of them will call if the price is right. Keep in mind that there are big pair limp trappers out there. Just because you're short stacked and folding and waiting no reason not to be paying full attention to the manner of a player's limp in. Early limp ins are so often traps, but the deliberate manner in the play and careful observation should at least clue you into risk. Limping in might be a better choice if you insist on seeing a flop if you can't give up the opprtunity to win.

I have found that in any sophisticated tournament situation, such as late in any live tournament, the early position limp trap is so prevalent that the players who act after and want to play their cards will limp in themselves, risking BB specials in exchange for position post flop. These good players have a great post-flop game, usually, so your choice to limp and see a flop will see a flop, but you are troubled by three things: the possible early limp trap, the possible BB special, and the superior post flop player in position. You're going to have to flop pretty big to get paid here. 20% of your stack to gamble on K10 in middle position is a bad investment as a limp in: its a worse investment as a raise all in given the same hands which coordinated with yours and would have seen a cheap flop still represent dead outs for your crappy K10, or QJ, or similar difficult hand.

The only real place for K10 is a late position steal (short stacked) or early position steal (medium stacked at a tight, preferably short (7-8 player) table, where it actually has a prospect of being the closest thing to a premium hand dealt). K10 is therefore NOT a CALLING HAND or a RAISING HAND if you can expect a call (short stacked to a limper, ex). You need a deeper stack to play it effectively. Pick a better spot if you can.

On the other hand, a small pair can be HUGE in these situations. Once again, beware of limp traps, but in a situation where there has been a RAISE and at least one CALL (particularly where you read some hesitation from the caller, or worry from the raiser after the call) you may be able to read whether two A-high hands are in ahead of you. More often than not, in these deep-tournament situations, the raiser probably had the weaker ace (say AJ) and the caller has the better AQ or AK. In other words, the most likely situation when you push all in with a pair is that the original raiser will fold (because he was already worried about the call, and the call acts last) and the caller will call you (because AQ and AK on paper (aka Phil Gordian math) look like a very good gamble on a smaller pair and a very good call on a weaker ace).

SO MUCH of this analysis depends on your observation skills and ability to read your opponents (see every other instructive blog for a million examples). You do NOT want to rumble your 66 against AA or KK who smooth called to disguise strength. Use all your weapons to test strength. Ask for a chip count.

Here's another trick, especially when you expect a slow play big hand. Ask for the count before looking at your own cards. Focus yourself on the count and the demeanour of the player as the chips are counted. I don't care if you have 84 off in the hole here, and an instant fold when you see the cards. You have done a few things for your game here:

(1) Established a good poker habit which focuses and improve your observation skills generally and gives you important observations of a player you may need to call or reraise later if not now;
(2) Generally pissed off the player, since he knows you haven't looked at your cards: hopefully, you can geta good tilt response. If it did get under his or her skin, exploit this. I am not afraid of a little table talk, if I can get into a player's head. Ex: I am playing in the usual monday game. A player I am familiar with was at my starting table, and we was bragging about being so close to a final table in the last big series. Just big table talk. He then gets on a lucky streak, and at one point his K5 off played from middle position hits 2 pair and knocks out the player in the BB who hit a BB special smaller 2 pair. He isn't playing well, he's just getting lucky. And, eventually starts paying off. At one point he is in a battle of the blinds: he had raised from the BB and the SB made the call. He will have A10, his opponent Q-rag. The flop is Q high, no Ace, no 10, and the bragger bets to a check and is called. The next card is junk, SB checks, A10 bets, SB check raises all in for now a reasonably serious price. A10 cant get off the concept of his preflop superiority, and calls and doubles up Q rag. And then he comments about how he played Q rag against a raise as being bad play. He got outplayed because he assumed he had to be called with something (any small pocket pair has him beat there too of course) and then was upset that his opponent knew Q paired no kicker was the best hand because A10 was outread and outplayed. So I see that A10 is the kind of guy who can dish it out and can't take it. So I have to respond to his comment with a comment about his K5 victory being just as loose. And was he offended! Perfect. Can dish it out, can't take it. I can put a guy like this off his game to get paid. And did.
(3) Gotten an extra look at the original raiser, who is now reacting to both the count, the player's reaction to the count, and your show of strength by acting for a count: if you see weakness, ask this player for a count too!
(4) You're making a habit of asking for a count routinely rather than only when you have a potential calling hand, so there is no special tell because you asked for a count;
(5) If you haven't seen your cards you can't give off any tells of your own.
(6) Ideally you have obtained the time and information to understand where your opponents stand, which will very much help you decide whether this is your time if you do see a calling hand in the hole.

Now, here is the most important thing: You have looked before you leapt, and now you see 88. Best hand in an hour.

PUT ON THE BRAKES IMMEDIATELY.

This is how I went from top 10 to bust out in the Coast to Coast main event in day two. It was a TIGHT,TOUGH table in day two FULL OF QUALITY STACKS. I had few hands, and was just milking 50-60k and not improving. An All-in to a small raise and call with AK. An outplay with 99 and position on a AAJ flop for a medium pot. I was over tired from the adrenaline of the day before, but still playing my game.

Two my left are two older players, late forties or so. The table seems to have picked nemeses: I have butted heads with the guy across from me (for asking for a blind count). The two players to my left have squared off. And these two. I have been watching intently. The player closest to me (L) has had position and has used it very well to bully his opponent to the right (R). They have done this 2 or three times.

In this particular hand, R has the button, L the SB, I am the BB. The play folds to R, and he raises. This is an obvious steal situation. L looks at his cards, and is clearly intent on playing sheriff. R's raise was to 6000 (1/10 of the stack), the re-raise from L to 25000. It is clear L intends to take this down preflop. But is he that strong, or just strong enough to play sheriff?

One of the problems here is that I have never seen either player showdown a hand to help establish a pattern. But this has gone on for at least 2 minutes, I have formed an impression: R is stealing, L has a big enough hand to play sheriff, but weak enough to want to take it down preflop. He is not gambling here, and does not intend to gamble.

So my impression is AJ to AK.

I look at my hole cards. I see 88 and immediately push. I'd seen enough, right?

WRONG. R folds instantly, and L only semi-reluctantly makes the call. He has 10 10.

YOU SURE DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO DO THIS ANALYSIS POST-HAND WHEN YOU WERE AMONG THE LAST 50 PLAYERS IN A $2700 BUY IN MAIN EVENT WITH 50000 CHIPS AND BLINDS OF 1000-2000!

L had about 75,000 chips. His raise made him deeply committed to the pot. I was not going to induce a fold here. I have been in this situation myself re-raising from the SB with AJ and running into the BB. A pair as big as 10 10 is a real big hand in this three-way situation. AJ would also make the call.

At best, in other words, AT VERY BEST, my 88 is up against R and L BOTH holding Ax, ONE CALLER, and a MADE HAND of mine against 5 outs (66% to win) AND GUARANTEED I am in for my tournament life on a coin flip or a handicapped coin flip.

If I deliberate my cards just a little here, I can gauge a reaction and get that more of a read. Maybe I just pick a better spot.

R will disclose he had 77. If L had folded, R was the weaker player, and a raise from me has the right effect. But my reads were all wrong, and I had an opportunity to gauge their hands a little further, the alarm goes off and I pick a better spot.

The ultimate point is this: a full and complete picture (too many people want to see a flop in a barely raised or limped in situation, and the original raiser looks concerned) should say that your pocket pair is WAY AHEAD because your opponents need to catch each others cards. I remember such a read once, where I put my QQ in against AK and AK: another time, where I called a small raise with JJ, then watched a guy seriously consider his hand (I correctly read AJ) while another raised all in (correctly read as AK), causing raiser 1 (AQ) to fold, me to recognize that JJ was WAY AHEAD ( 72% or so). He caught a K, but the other players confirmed my read was perfect. The last time, I had 99 in the BB and went all in: only AK (3x blind original raiser) called called, and I announced he had dead cards: I caught a 9 on the flop, and watch his 4 flush river pair the board so that my full house beat his flush, but without an A or K to be found anywhere.

This, my friends, is how very good players play small pairs seemingly "fearlessly" in apparent "coin-flip" situations. They have accurately read their situation: Go Ask Al: he can tell you a story about calling for all his chips with 33 against AK and AQ and tripling up.

Sick, dude.

Happy pokering.