Even More short-stack gambling: pot odds for adults

Anyone who read any of my early blogs might have read the last few and wondered why I spoke so lovingly of pot odds. Didn't I once describe pot-odds analysis as justifying your first mistake with another?

Aha! But I spoke of last blog's 3x AK raiser as having made mistakes because of the odds she was offering, a FAR MORE important issue than the Phil Gordonian pot odds calls which occur when the big stack bully raises to 10,000 with K9 with blinds of 1500/3000, and the stack with 15,000 protects his sb by going all in. Yes, its only 5,000 more into A 28,000 chip pot. But 10,000 of those chips are what you put in bad! Big Stack Bullies have to play smart power poker. Tight players with medium stacks will give up blinds to raises of 3-3.5 x the blinds when you can open the pot from a later position. Anyone looking to blind steal should seriously consider 5th, 6th and 7th position steals rather than cut off and button steals. They are far less obvious as steals, cost the same, and have similar effect. Keep in mind that late position players still have people to act behind them. They are far more likely to flat call than reraise, and if you were attacking the blinds of the right kinds of players, they will still fold rather than play, even with odds, out of position in a raised, medium sized pot with a raiser and a caller. Big stacks will easily make the pot odds call, and, as I have discussed in the last two blogs, a well schooled short stack may correctly read his situation correctly: the raiser has the weakest hand, the caller needs a flop, both have paint or painted ace, and my 78 hearts may very well be 38% here. If he has enough chips to induce a fold, he goes all in and may very well steal the whole pot: an effective double up at minimal risk (given the weakness shown by the raiser and caller) or triple up gamble if the raiser and caller both have high Aces and one is big enough to call.

VERY IMPORTANT to have those reads locked down to make these moves. I will remind of the formula:

- Pay attention to every player on every hand as the play unfolds towards you:
- Make particular note of every player seriously considering a play: these
marginal hands are often outs for larger raising hands:
- The manner in which a raiser raises (automatic, deliberate, calculated,
uncertain) should be first clues to what he holds:
- The manner in which the raiser reacts to anyone considering a play are next clues:
- Any callers must be carefully scutinized for possible traps or genuine "need to
see the flop" weakness:
- Ask any players in the pot for a chip count BEFORE LOOKING AT YOUR CARDS so you
can read them, and they can't read you:
- NEVER make an automove of your chips all in (see point three) when you see an AK
or a 88 or other "OMG finally a hand" hands. Use this opportunity to probe
further (like in point 4). Here's a trick: PRETEND to look at your cards, then
probe for reaction by contemplating the call or the pot or your stack size.

Any short stack needs to understand that opportunities include opportunities to steal raised pots. If you can stare down a cut -off raise that was slow, deliberate, and careful by a cautious player and than look down at A3 spades and autopush, knowing he both has you beat and that he will fold, you are fearless. You will succeed.

FEARLESS

I'm short stacked, I have 6x the blinds, the chip leader has be covered 10 to 1, I am gone. Why be scared? You have already lost. You can only move up or go home.

THIS IS WHY POT ODDS IS A CRUCIAL FACTOR

Well calculated gambles may be the only solution for the short stack. A6 is NEVER a hand for a well calculated gamble! THIS IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT: LIVE CARDS. If A6 is a bad gamble, why raise with it? The 10 6 you had the hand prior, in better position, HAD BETTER ODDS AGAINST A CALLER and IS JUST AS GOOD TO STEAL WITH.

The short stack HAS TO GAMBLE SMART.

Here is an amazing short stack recovery story. I probably told it before, but it is worth retelling. With 30 people left, blinds are 500-1000 and I am UTG and holding 3000 chips.

I GO ALL IN BLIND. Why? Because I need the blinds to be in the pot. My stack can't wait to be in the BB, when I am pot committed anyway, but 1000 of the chips belong to me, not somewhat else. I have no choice but to play these cards. They happen to be 83. I get protection from AK, and I catch but he does not.

7500 CHIPS

Now the table knows I am crazy, so the table folds to the blinds. SB makes a flat call. I have 83. I check. The flop is trash, but contains a 8 or 3 (I don't remember). The SB bets about 2500. I can go all in for 4000 more, and do so. He was bluffing. He folds.

I will fold the SB next hand

11000 chips

I am now on the button. A player in early position who has made strange plays in strange positions makes a small raise. A young woman who I know will only play good hands makes a raise on him (she also knows hes a weak raiser). It then folds to me. I have AQ. I push all in. the SB is a very short stack: he has odds to more than quadruple: he's an instacall (and good for him). Surprisingly, the original raiser with crap makes the call, and we have 4 people all in. In order of betting: Q 10; 10 10; A Q (me); K9. K9 will catch his nine, but I will catch my Q on the river. The original raiser earns a small side pot between him and 10 10. The pot will take about 5 minutes to sort out, but ultimately the dealer ships me

39,000 chips

TWO HANDS LATER, the same raiser from the last hand goes all in with his last 6000 chips. He will get protection from a big stack: 22,000. All folds to me and I have AK. There is some, but little, hesitation. ALL IN. The original raiser is hating himself at the moment, but jeez, he has 22,000 into a pot which has gone through the roof 70,000 chips in the pot and 17,000 to call. Phil Gordon aside, chips in bad and all, how can anyone not protect that initial bad investment? And pray I have JJ and his AQ is good? It isn't. I catch my K to settle all.

86,000 CHIPS. 7 HANDS.

Every gamble was the right move, right odds, every gamble was still a gamble.

FEARLESS = CHIP LEADER.

Pot odds are used to determine whether a gamble is a good risk. Period. Those odds need to be accurately calculated BEFORE YOU PUT IN YOUR FIRST CHIP. It NEVER JUSTIFIES a bad initial move.

YOU'RE SHORT STACKED

YOU HAVE ONE MOVE

YOU HAVE TO MAKE IT COUNT.

So, I have criticized the AQ for over protecting a short stack call. I have criticized AK for making a greedy, underwhelming raise which invited a call and really invited more chips to enter the pot: preflop or post flop, it doesn't matter.

Shit, if I got a limper or two from short stacks and I have AK, I want them to make a call for ALL their chips. Have them put their tournament on the line. Why not bet accordingly? 3x the blinds almost guarantees the action you didn't want, and the short stack is so committed by calling, he might as well shove before the flop. I wll often, even to open the pot, holding a big stack an a big slick, make a preflop bet that equals the biggest short stack I want to play with. It is too much for another big stack to call with without a huge hand. It is designed for ONE CALLER ONLY. I AM CONTENT WITH THE STEAL. My hand is protected.

AQ's error? Not so much as the quality of his hand, as the possibility, raising an all in so early in position, that the weakness of his AQ as a showdown hand might be exposed and lead to the wrong action. Sometimes AQ can and should be a flat-calling hand: fact of the matter is, that flat call looks stronger than the big protection bet, because it shows some FEARLESSNESS. And I might flat call AK there too and manage my odds better by looking at a flop, rather than push all in.

One last recent example. I have AK in early position (blinds 100-200) and a modest stack of 4500. Dying for a double up. I raise to 800. The person to my left raises me to 1800. The table folds, and I go all-in. He makes a crying call with QQ, and says he made a mistake. He should have managed the pot. He let the pot get out of hand. I hit my A on the flop. He flat calls with QQ, he sees that A, I make 1000 chips not 4800. Damn right he made a mistake. I was a short stack: he was offering me a double up opportunity by raising. Fact of the matter is, QQ is still a pretty strong hand in a three way or 4 way RAISED pot, given that callers will have duplicates of Aces and Kings and the flop is likely dead.

Sounds like I am move onto another lesson....later.