More short stack adventures: post flop play

What a shame my recent blogs are all about short stack play. After winning over $10,000 in July, I have suffered my longest no-cash streak ever. The lone exception was a $1200 payout early september which paid for my season's pass for skiing. Finishing 8th in minor online tournaments does not count, nor does the 8th in a casino wednesday tournament for $10 over the buy in. My last final table of any significance saw me with AA two hands in a row, UTG and then the BB, limped in for a trap and river raise to cause the big stack to fold, and the entire profit in that hand lost when the short stack UTG limped in, three limpers followed, and I raise to put her all in and watched A10 offsuit fourflush the river. Then my JJ will fall to AA a few hands later.

More recently JJ fell to K9 and KK fell to 62.

Tonight, an hour of poker equalled 4 playable starting hands, one small pot, and 2150 in chips, blinds of 50/100, and I am in the BB.

My reads have been excellent: I have had nothing to do at the table BUT observe other players. It is a pretty raw and young table. The only older gentleman is immediately to my left, who showed down 5 3 for 2 pair in a cheap pot from the button early. Further observation of the player is that he is a pot odds player who likes to see a lot of flops, calls to many raises, but can outplay post flop when he reads weakness. I read weakness in the same situations too, like from a dapper young black man across the table who also has some post flop skills but folds like a house of cards to good bets with confidence behind them...but he is not part of this story.

Two seats further left is a thirty-something Chinese gentleman who has seen a lot of pots, and shown down nothing but wired pairs. In his first hand, a bet and three calls of 75 causes him to bet 600. I immediately put him a wired pair. He gets one caller, a very green young man who had opened the pot for 75 (blinds 25/25), and the kids beside me folds and so do I, holding a small suited ace. Been around the block to play a dry ace when a small raise flat calls anything that is so obviously a wired pair.

I do not disagree with the 600 raise here, necessarily, it is common when the blinds are cheap to protect these hands from pot-odds players. I read an interesting article contrasting the internet tourney player from the live tourney player, and I have to agree. Internet tourney players even at the $5 MTT level still play like tournament players: without a rebuy option, playing "pot odds" on raises with 87 and 10J will whittle your stack a lot more quickly and readily than folding them after trying to play then cheap. The live casino weekly tourney is full of live cash players. This raiser doesn't want 5 callers. He doesn't want a small ace in there. He doesn't want a small pair in there. That's fine, but I would rather lose a small pot here than win a small pot preflop in a manner that telegraphs the strength of my hand. Fear causes this raise, not confidence. It will come to be shown that all the aces were dead anyway, but post-flop, his raise will bear itself out. This rookie was exactly the right caller.

The flop is J J 10, and the rookie is first to act, and his hands are shaking. He is overwhelmed. He is nervous. He is in trouble and the table knows it. and he bets 1000, leaving him with only 800 chips. Now he is in trouble and is pot committed.

That was not the nervousness of a guy who flopped monstrous, I know it and our raiser knows it. He puts all his chips in quickly. The rookie looks at his chipstack, hates himself, but has to make the call, and his A10 will fall to QQ.

I know an awful lot about the raiser holding QQ already. Lets just call him PP, since he will never show down a non-pair. He will protect a big pair, he knows when his QQ is good on a JJ flop. Makes good decisions. Telegraphs big hands.

On another hand, he will make a more modest raise, get several callers, and ultimately show down 88 after the flop hit A Q 10 two clubs and got no action. On yet another, he will be last to call an all in for 575 (of 4), check to a flop of 775, and bet to protect 33 with a 2 on the turn to show the best hand . The all in had A8 and the kid beside me was the first caller, obviously with AK as we later discussed. He was right that he should have gone all in for a heads up showdown. Another rookie mistake. I learned early at the casino to NEVER flat call an affordable all in when you have a big showdown hand. We discussed these protective bets in a very recent blog.

In yet another hand, PP, in an attempt to "mix it up", still shows that same deliberation as before, but only bets 150 in late position with several 50 chip limpers. The UTG limper, the Dapper Dan I had mentioned before, limp raises to 400, and all folds to PP. We all know by now that Dapper Dan can't stand the heat. PP figures this out too, after some deliberation, and puts enough in the pot to force DD all in. DD will predictably fold.

I am sure PP had a big hand. Probably NOT a pair. It was obvious DD was playing a stunt. If PP had a PP of magnitude, he would have flat called and let DD hang himself. DD is smart enough to make a probe bet on the flop, and smart enough to fold. PP doesn't have the acting skills to show weakness and trap, so he just took it down.

More information on PP.

At the end of the table is another rookie. He knows enough to call raise when he puts in a 500 chip into 100 bets, but he is constantly looking like a deer in the headlights when it is his turn to act. He is 23 tops, doesn't look very bright, looks over-tired and overwhelmed. He has lost some chips along the way. He looks like a blond Beaver Cleaver so we will call him Sleepy Beav, or SB.

When rookie number one busted out I gave him some quick advice: his post flop bet was too big to represent the J. I will have some advise for SB by the end of this hand...

Now back to the hand. 2150 in chips, BB, blinds 50/100

my pot-odds limper on my right is UTG, and limps in,

PP is next to act, and I get the same deliberation, but again he is trying to mix it up, so he opens for 350. He knows the table well enough to know he'll get action, but, in spite of his "mix up" attempts, he even telegraphs them. I immediately get the sense he is holding a big pair. I am under the impression now he would protect a big ace. Gut is everything in this game.

Sleepy Beav, still looking lost and sleepy, and prone to pot odds calls (which is why he has less than 200 chips), makes the call. I don't recall if there was a third caller (Dapper Dan is not in this part of the story, in other words), but I see a price of 350 and then my cards of 55. No way I'm going for broke here, I just put PP on a PP! BUT I have excellent IMPLIED ODDS to see a price that I KNOW wont be re-raised. The gentleman to the left who limped in never put in the vibe of a big hand trapper, and I am confident he simply has playable cards and wants to see a flop. Me too.

IMPLIED ODDS

I rarely talk about implied odds. The "book" describes them as the prospect that your call will lead to you winning a big pot if you hit a big flop. I think I just dumbed it down to a definition even I can understand. These lessons have all been about "good" odds to double or triple up in gambling situations. And I have used these blogs not just for you but for me to reanalyze my short stack card selection and inject more gamble in my game for when I need it. In other words, If I am going to invest my tournament in a high risk situation, the ultimate reward better make the risk worthwhile.

I tend not to use the term, because I don't want you to think in terms of "pot odds" and "implied odds", I want you to actually grind out the real odds. Think through the WHOLE HAND, not just the apparent strength of your hand [OMG! AK! OMG! I just lost to 33! OMG! C(ry)OL] (Sorry, not talking internet poker here. I will use complete sentences), or to justify a "crying call", like I did playing pot limit omaha with the boys last friday, flop a set of Aces (AA in my hole cards) on a A 10 4 flop, value but the flop, see a Q on the turn, knowing the Q made my opponent a straight, then check calling $5 more knowing I'm bad from a pot that was $8 before the turn. If you KNOW you're bad, you've done your job. You don't need to pay to prove it. Satisfy yourself your read was good and move on. Similarly, playing shorthanded in a short stacked home game with big blinds and raising A8 to 800 from 100/200, it is not a good play to call off the raise to 1250 all in when you KNOW you are crushed preflop (Magus had AQ)

GOOD GAMBLES REQUIRE EXCELLENT PREFLOP READS. Unsure, don't gamble.

Here's my gamble. Here's my mistake.

The flop is 2 4 8 two clubs, and I am first to act. If you read the last few blogs in detail, you may form an opinion here, assuming that PP is in fact "mixing it up", and maybe this time he doesn't have a wired pair. If the three callers share each others high card outs, this is a GREAT FLOP for 55. The raise was enough to cause All 8 holding hands BUT 88 to fold, and I make a quick choice to risk it. I go all in. Not being greedy, just announcing "my flop, pay it all to draw out".

BUT I IMMEDIATELY REALIZE that I had read PP with a big PP. I was calling to hit a 5 on the flop, but the dry situation I was in forced my decision to risk that the read was wrong.

Sure enough, when the UTG limp/caller folds, PP is now deliberating. He is deliberating because Sleepy Beav is still in the pot. He has a pair. Its big. Its the right flop. There is something greedy about this deliberation, trying to pull Sleepy Beav in with him. In the end he simply calls the 1800, which is more than Sleepy Beav has.

Now here is where it gets odd, and here is my lesson for Sleepy Beav. He is in the tank. He is disoriented. He is confused. He doesn't know where he stands. The tank is at least 90 seconds, before he announces call.

I announce that I know I'm beat, and that PP has a big pair, and that SB has a big draw. But I'm only 1/2 right.

PP has QQ

SB has KK.

Pardon me, the flop is 8 high, there is 4900 in the pot, you have 1600 left, and you have SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT HOLDING KK?

I am not impressed by the slowroll. No shortstack folds KK in that situation. Nobody. If someone cracked my KK, they can have my chips. If PP had AA, he can have my chips.

My initial impression is this slowroll was rude and disrespectful. I say so.

The lesson is in poker manners. In spite of some comments I have made about the VALUE of riding someone you can ride towards tilt, I do not play live poker the way some sociopaths consider acceptable in internet play. Internet play is incredibly rude. The casino is full of "good luck all in" and "good game", and I am all about that. My live poker reputation is that when I am on I will kick your ass, and we will behave like gentlemen along the way. Unless I hit a situation where my wit can be used to advantage, and I tend to be subtle and clever instead of rude.

The slowroll of an all in player with a huge hand that any non-moron would instantly call is very very very uncool. There is no need to make a man (or woman) sweat his fate if his fate is known to you.

In retrospect, his intentions were not disrespectful. He was a moron. He was so overwhelmed by the casino experience he had no sense of the pot size, his stack size, the players in the pot, and he may have even forgot he's holding KK. Told that he was slowrolling, if he has the capacity to learn, perhaps he will.

KK post flop, no A on board, a call 3.5 times bigger stack? Nothing to think about. If we DID deconstruct this hand, ANY REASONABLE PLAYER should have this figured out on that flop:

The first ALL IN was WEAK. No way I try to take down the pot with a pot size
bet with a set.

PP has shown down SO MANY pairs he can only have a big PP or a big draw consistent
with his predictable image, like AK or AQ clubs.

The odds of ONE OF US hitting a set with an underpair on the flop is 11%. The
odds of us BOTH is 11% squared: 1.21% Even if I am such a good player that I KNOW
one of my opponents has a big pair and KNOW a big bet will be called with me
holding a set, (a very good play, and I have done this), this read here is
defying the probability curve. I COULD be THAT BRILLIANT, but with Sleepy holding
KK and PP calling already the MOST LIKELY READ is that ONE HAS AN OVERPAIR and the
OTHER HAS SOMETHING WORTH LESS THAN AN OVER PAIR. Because its only 11% that this
wrong. Add the statistical odds that AA is in this pot. Significantly less than
1%.

If A x clubs made a call here, it is 42-44% to beat me, less if I hold a club.
But WHO THE HELL FOLDS 56-58% the favorite with 1600 to add to 4900? NO ONE. If
the limp caller, folded an ace (pretty likely) my odds got better.


In other words, I am SO BRILLIANT a player that I can read a set here ABSOLUTELY, then fine, lay down KK, but when my KK is 89% TO BE GOOD HERE AND THERE IS 4500 in the pot, I am going to all in and pray I am wrong and if right I spike a K!

And one thing Sleepy Beav knows, is that he's not brilliant.

My move was not brilliant either. I knew I was wrong the second my chips went in. I didn't put Sleepy Beav on a big PP (way to sleepy), but I was DEAD ON on PP's hand, and simply forgot, or chose to forget.

There is no doubt at all that this game requires awesome skills. It also requires cards. Flop that set, and yes, I am brilliant enough to make sure I get paid. I already wrote that blog. From the BB, I weak raised with AA, got 4 callers, flopped the A for the set, check called my way through a hand with a smaller set and a flush draw for a huge pot, and no one had a clue I had a thing.

My cards are coming.

Good luck catching yours!