Okay okay, PM's been a little lazy with the blogging. Saturday was a grind...5 hours later I had the same chip stack I started with. I couldn't generate action. I was making amazing reads....but who cares if you're not in the pot. Without cards, my poker wits were wasted.
But lets talk about a few of those reads, including a few big laydowns.
Here's two big laydowns, both absolutely correct, one from Saturday, the other from Monday.
Let's set up the Saturday story with another hand with the same player. His actions in this hand may well have arisen from how he played me on a prior hand.
This fellow is a reasonable player, who is 2 seats to my right, so I often have position on him. In early position, with blinds 150/300, he makes a standard 3x raise, 900, and I, with 88, make the call. We both have give or take 10,000 chips. The rest of the field folds, and we see a flop of Q 9 4 two spades.
Our man makes a weak stab at the pot of 1000. He sounds weak. I feel weakness and make a call quickly.
Now why did I "feel" weakness"? There is over 2000 in the pot, a flush draw on the board, and his bet is barely over his raise. This is a guy trying not to lose too much. He missed the board. I am thinking AK.
The next card is another 9. He checks and I check back. Obviously, my smooth call must alert him to a possible draw. The reality is I am floating a bit, waiting for the weakness to be clear. He does not protect his hand from a draw on the turn: he has no hand to protect. There is no way he has a Q from the flop and no way he has a 9.
The river is a garbage small card, and he checks again. 3000 of my chips come out quickly. He tanks for 30 seconds, but we both knew he was beat with AK. He didn't show and neither did I.
Assuming he had AK, I don't like his opening bet. I treat AK early similarly to a small PP. I raise it 4x to 5x, depending on where I stand at the table. I am out of position, and I don't want to play AK there. The continuation bet which becomes obligatory is often disasterous. With a big bet, I am daring someone to make a move, and it is much easier to simply play AK in a race out of position.
I had outplayed a few people in pots up to that point, so the natural tendency of the table was to stay out of pots with me. Unfortunately, I ran into two people I knew at my second table on Monday, one of whom I had busted at the Donkey table 2 weeks ago, so discussions of my taking Donkey out and coming in 2nd followed. Again dry action, but it permitted a lot of steals when that was all I wanted.
Okay, back to Saturday. A few hands later, I am now first to act with JJ and raise to 1200 (4x): again I am protecting JJ by making the more substantive bet. Another player in middle position reraises me to 2500. I am suspicious of this play, and inclined to play a pot with him. But AK man comes roaring out of the BB with 12000 all in. The old adage applies here: a raise and a reraise and you're up against KK or AA. The bottom line is, I am hardly pot committed, and not prepared to chase a set of jacks. I fold, but the original raiser calls, and shows down his 10 10 to KK. KK was very aggressive coming in, like a freight train. It was obvious to me he had a big hand. 10 10 simply had no clue where he stood in the hand, and lost most of his chips.
This player didn't want a 3 way pot and didn't want me outplaying him with position, so his all in raise got what he wanted.
Very similarly, on Monday, with blinds at 100/200, I come in early with AQ betting 650 from my stack of 7000. It is folded down to a man in late position. He's got this look on his face, like he's gonna make a play on my raise, but he only doubles up to 1300. I am more than suspicious: with modest blinds, this minraise is designed to get me heads up but continue the action. I have no doubt I am up against KK, and intend to fold, but, the BB, the fellow I had busted with the 10 10 in the Donkey game has the same, "what play should I make here?" look on his face, and makes the call. I am dead certain I am against two big hands here, but for 650 into a pot of 2350 I make the call, really expecting that I will only win if I flop huge, like two more Q's.
The flop is Q 10 8 two hearts, and the BB goes all in very quickly for 5000 more. I tank, but only briefly, and think aloud: straight draw on board, flush draw on board, (I have AQ, I think silently, there isn't another, and this cat is protecting his hand), you must have the KK ( a bit of deception, as I KNOW my raiser has KK) and fold. the raiser, with KK, makes the call, and doubles the BB with AA.
That was the easiest laydown of my life. If BB didn't have me beat, KK did. But KK never figured out where he was. Let's face it, KK can't lay down this flop, but maybe he should. A set could have been protecting itself here too. I'm not sure QK makes that move from that position, a bet but not all in. With AA, we all have a tendency to enter protection mode when the flop is scary, and the usual move is all in. KK the same way. Had KK been listening, he might have clued in that I had hit the flop from my tanking and talking, and AQ was my most likely hand, meaning the all in was not likely AQ.
But could you lay KK down there? Online, no way: even though KK seems to attract AA or an A high flop a little too much...but this guy had a lot of information. BB's all in was not exactly timid. It was a "this is my pot" all-in suggestive of strength in need of protection. There is a story in Phil Gordon about how he laid down KK when Mike Matusow bet into him with QQ and Phil Hellmuth (funny I keep spelling it Hellmouth) reraised all in with AA at a final table, but Hellmuth played that wrong. Get some action Phil, and stop playing small games for your 11th bracelet and beat a few pros. BB played his AA way better, and only one of two suckers figured him out (it helped that I had the lock on the man with KK which made my move so easy).
I have been having that "lock" since Saturday. A couple of examples from Saturday:
The player to my left is a good player, but he talks too much. He has reasonable experience, and picked up a few pots. The player to my right has lost a couple, and is down to maybe 8000. The blinds are 75/150, and Talks Too Much (TTM) raises in early position, and the only caller is Lost Too Much (LTM) in the BB.
The flop is 5 6 2 rainbow. LTM checks. TTM bets 1200. LTM check-raises to 2500 and TTM makes the call.
The turn is an 8, and LTM puts the rest of his chips in, about 4500, without hesitation. TTM now goes into the tank. FOR A LONG TIME. He can't put LTM on a hand, and is thinking aloud. At one point he almost asks me for advice, and I get a peek at one his cards, and I'm pretty sure I see the Q of clubs. I tell him he ain't getting any help. I have them both on a hand at this point...
Do you? Lets go into the tank with TTM and figure it out. Maybe read back a blog or two. I talked about this scenario. What does a raiser often do when checked-to post flop? Continuation bet. What does a player out of position do when the flop is low and the man he puts on AK or AQ appears to have bet into a flop he missed? Check raise if he has a piece of the flop. In this case, however, we have a raised pot, so its not like he protected his hand with A6 here. LTM has a small PP. In fact, I have him on 77 at this point.
Why 77? Why not a set? Because LTM is playing back at TTM like TTM has two big cards to beat him with. He saved just enough chips to make a big turn bet to take down the pot. AQ has to fold here. With that read, a set is pretty safe. See what a river trap gets you.
Which is why TTM does not have AQ. He thinks LTM caught a set on him. TTM has QQ. (I got a hint of course)
77 looks like its in great shape with the additional straight draw from the 8 which could not have helped his opponent.
I don't know if TTM figured it out too, but EVENTUALLY makes the call...with QQ....and sees 77. The river doesn't help and LTM is gone.
Compare LTM's play against mine with the 88. Certainly, LTM was out of position, but he used the check raise well to get the information he thought he needed. The "just call", in my view, was not deception on TTM's part. The check raise confused him, and his call was a quick reaction, but LTM misinterpreted this confusion as TTM getting good odds to play "chase the ace", and the turn made him feel 77 was the best hand.
LTM only used post flop information to figure his opponent out. I used the whole board to get comfortable with 88 being the best hand. The overcards were not that appreciable a difference in my thinking. When in doubt with a small PP post flop, fold it. If you can make these reads with confidence, bet with equal confidence. Be prepared to be wrong until you start getting it right. You will see the patterns of what happened when you thought 77 was good and was wrong, and your gut will tell you when it is happening again. Eventually.
Yesterday, early in the game, blinds 25/50, an UTG limper who looks and acts like Ron Howard, we'll call him Opie, and the BB both call a modest button raise of 150. With 500 in the pot, and a flop of 2 8 9 two clubs, BB makes a bet of 700, and Opie beats him to the pot all in. The button immediately folds, and we at the other end of the table whisper to ourselves about Opie's obvious set. He is just so excited! BB tanks for a bit, but eventually calls and turns over 10 10. Opie will reveal 99.
Opie played this real silly but got paid anyway. You will get this excited too until you get a little experience under your belts. I doubled up a few hands later slow playing A8 on a 10 8 8 board against an aggressive player. I got excited when he check raised me all in on a 2 turn card, and then showed me 33, but kept clam up to then. Actually, this move was a nice set up for this guy t0 get action when he got some real premium hands....but back to Opie. The original raiser was trying to push out the straight and flush draws, Mayberry Brain. Sucker him into thinking you're on one. But Gosh Paw, I'd a flopped me a whole bunch a nines! I feel sorry for his girlfriend: Boobs! I'm so excited! Um, let me get a sponge.... The analogy between the slow play and the slow hand is pretty strong, I'd say....
Last hand to talk about.
We are late in the Saturday tourney, blinds at 300/600/75 ante, and there is a new chip stack who has just sat down. He has lots of chips. I am jealous. I was at the tight table.
A player whom I'd been playing with since table one, a nice guy, limps in, and play folds to the New Sheriff. New Sheriff? New thief. He raises to 3000. Nice Guy knows this is a steal, but Nice Guy's reaction reveals his hand. He re-raises, to 6000. My immediate thought is 10 10. New Sheriff makes the call. I get the impression New Sheriff likes to float and steal post flop.
The flop is 4 10 Q and Nice Guy bets 6000. This is a typical play for Nice Guy. New Sheriff appears hesitant and makes the call. The turn is another Q, and Nice Guy makes a play I don't like (given that I know what he has) and attempts a value bet of 6000 again. New Sheriff figures him out, and Nice Guy shows his 10 10. No duh, nice guy!
Nice Guy could have EASILY slowed down on that turn card and let New Sheriff make his move on the float, representing the Q. These are the plays you gotta make! Big stack, new to table, big pot, you have a full house....let him take a stab at it or catch up! Nice Guy had a nice stack after that, and New Sherriff never stole again (I reraised him all in once from the BB on a steal attempt), but Nice Guy might have become New Sheriff Big Gun at a nice time (40 people left) if he had been a sneaky little bastard like the Poker Monster....
Okay, I've been promising more final table action, but I'm not sure my audience is quite ready....
maybe after tomorrow's tourney, we'll see if I can go top 3 4 weeks in a row....
The Lady of Luck owes me some big cards tomorrow.....
...
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Interlude: big tells and big reads
Friday, August 24, 2007
Chapter 8.1 Final table "obligatory" calls and raises
Okay, you have a big stack, or a small stack, you're in the BB, and a short stack has put all his chips in. Lets say the blinds are 1500/3000 with 400 ante 8 handed, the raise is to 9000, and play folds to you, putting a total of 16700 in the pot, including your obligatory investment of 3000. It is 6000 to call, knowing its a heads up showdown.
Assuming the raiser did not have a PP, any two random cards you are holding will be at least 30% to win and to call is adding 35% to the pot. The combination of pot odds and implied odds (to knock out a player and go up to the next prize level) typically makes this call obligatory, but it should still be thought out.
Obviously, less thought is involved when you have 100,000 chips, but if you have 25,000 plus the BB invested lets work this out. If I am 70% likely to lose, I will be in the SB next hand with 17,100 chips left and 1900 invested (SB + ante) Maybe the blinds will be up in three hands to 2000/4000/500 ante. By folding, I guarantee that the original raiser moves from 9000 to 16700, and by calling, I am more than likely moving him to 22,700. Let's say he made his move from position 5, meaning the level will go up in his BB in three hands. Assuming he can't push again, the next 4 hands will pull 4 antes, two at 500, a BB and and a SB from his tiny stack, 7800 chips to put our small stack BACK TO THAT ORIGINAL 9000.
In other words, if you fold, the raiser has only bought 5 hands worth of time, but if you call and lose, you are one round away from being in the same spot as he. Those 6000 chips you are putting in the pot represent the next level's SB and BB investment, and lets not forget the high price of the antes.
Add to this is the fact that the small stack found something to push with. He is so small he can have anything from AA on down, but he has something. Maybe its A4, which affords you the best odds with your random two cards, which effectively is Q7 on average. If neither hand is sooted, you are in fact 40% to win, but that is the best of it.
On the other hand, if you are holding one of many marginal but playable hands, odds improve. 89 sooted, for example, is almost dead on a coin flip against merely A high, but loses 8% against your opponent if he has 2 overcards like A10. Even higher sooted connectors like JQ may help avoid the overcards but are the same odds to win otherwise.
A sooted connector is therefore quite a solid call in this situation.
For reasons discussed recently when I first spoke of shorthanded play, obviously a PP will likely provide good reason to call, keeping in mind that the bigger the table is, the more likely 2 overcards, if truly live, will beat you in a showdown, so 33 remains a tough call if you are 10 or 8 handed, but is an easy call at a shorter table.
Again, it helps to try to put shortstack on a hand. If you know how he became a shortstack, it helps:
- Has he been a patient survivalist who seems to be always on the short stack but impossible to kill? While this may be his last gasp, he probably has found something to push with. Expect a middle PP or reasonable Ace. Given that he has a few more hands to wait, A4 may be something he would fold knowing he didn't have the chips to steal with against the rest of the table. Last Monday, the exact same scenario occurred,4000 more against 1000/2000 blinds, but our BB only had 15,000 left if he made the call. He couldn't give up the pot and had 79 spades, hand almost as strong as sooted connectors, but the pusher had 10 10.
- Has he just lost a big pot? he may be on tilt, or simply giving up and going home. Your random cards could well be tje favorite with even Q high.
If I have a big stack, pot and implied odds affect my "obligatory" call situations more. Now the question is how likely do I want to double someone up. Some players are more dangerous than others. A former chip leader who is now a short stack is better kept small, limiting his skills to preflop decisions. A player who has not demonstrated particular creativity or skill might just be a player you want to keep alive now. Just don't let this player in on why you made such a loose call. You are hoping he will get lucky and cripple or knock out better players so you can outplay him later when he has a big stack but doesn't know how to play shorthanded well.
This is because short handed play is a dramatic change from early final table play where the action slows down, and you will be able to steal blinds and small pots from a player who doesn't know when his middle pair is good.
The same player who made the short stacked call with 97 against 10 10 made another mistake within a few hands of this. With the button, he tried to make a steal with K4 sooted, but the BB only had 2 times the big blind left. The BB really had few options to call with Q6. K4 may be the favorite here, but the purpose of a steal is to successfully steal, not showdown trash against trash. The BB won the trash fight, and our "obligatory caller" lost more chips.
In the very first live tourney I played, I had folded UTG when the very short stack in the BB hemmed and hawed over a raise and re-raise into his BB. He had very little folding equity left in his meager stack, and eventually folded while 10 10 and AQ showed down.
The BB, in spite of the board, then commented that he should have called with 27 because he was being offered the pot odds to triple up. Indeed, the pot was huge, he had 4000 only to throw in, and he could have used a triple plus from 7000 to 23,000, but this guy argued with me when I criticised his thinking. This was a $500+50 game with 500 people, and a significant percentage of them were experienced players. These two players pushed against the BB because they had hands that did not fear the BB's cards. Paricularly a raise and re-raise, when you as BB are almost pot committed, should make it pretty clear that it may be a cheap call for you but you are nearly dead going in. The odds computer puts that at 10% that somehow 27 will suckout 2 pair a set, or the best 4 flush or 4 straight.
As a result, if I am in the SB and the BB is very shortstacked, play often folds to me. Unless I have one of my many raising hands (mixed paint, PP, A high) I won't go near the BB unless he is so short that only a tiny amount of chips are risked chasing trash v. trash.
On the other hand, two weeks ago, after I had laid down against the very short BB from the SB, and explaining why I did to the BB, I, still with the huge stack, was folded to on the button with 55 with 2 short stacks in the blinds. I did not hesitate to put them both all in, and got one caller with KJ. JK happened to catch, but my risk was small, and the raise against them would have either robbed two shorties of their blinds or potentially knocked them out.
The other "obligatory call" situation occurs when a short )(but not critically small) stack comes raising to you with a very big stack and you have a medium strength hand like AJ. Because it is an apparent showdown hand, it is difficult to lay this hand down here knowing you will be heads up to knock out a short stack. The unfortunate flip side is that the player, who was not desperate, usually has a hand that AJ will be in trouble with.
Again, a choice between a cheap call which may very well double up a player vs. the consideration of keeping that player short is the best consideration for the call. You may be folding the best hand, or a dominant hand, but the prospect of giving a short stack the renewed life of a medium stack where the player will be able to play post flop may be giving up a tactical advantage. Putting your opponent on a hand is the key here. AJ is not an automatic call. Do a little talking or counting or whatever and try to get a read. Same thing with any PP 77 or less. 88 for reasons given earlier may very well be a reasonable call in many of these situations, but only JJ or higher are truly automatic calls.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Chapter 8: early final table strategy
Hello, and welcome to the Main Event. Perhaps the entire internet is watching.
Five or six hours of grinding, trapping, stealing, and donking later, you have made it to the place where each knockout means more and more money to reward you for your investment in sweat, grit, and synaptic pulses.
It does not matter how you got there. It may matter where your stack is at. I have two weeks of recent stories from the monster stack and the average stack, but let's start at the bottom.
If your stack is so small the blinds and antes will kill you in ten hands, strategy is simple and has everything to do with where the button lands relative to your seat.
If you start UTG you really only have 2 hands to make a decision, this one and the BB, and if you have a reasonable starting hand, pushing all in may at least be enough the limit the field and pray for a suckout. The problem is we are now ten handed and the prospect of a real hand coming in and raising and isolating or 3 players calling and checking you down means even AA is in trouble here. Good luck.
If you are fortunate enough to start in decent position, you have time. Most importantly, you may have time for another short stack to push and get busted. Given that 10th is often just a little over the buy in, and 8th is double that, finding a way to simply survive while other players die means something. And not necessarily small stacks will die. Story on point will follow. Obviously you will likely put your chips in if any PP or mixed paint arrive. If you can, following the standard hands for stealing/raising is ideal. Maybe just anteing out is the best strategy. You should know the players by now. Naturally aggressive players may prove your best ally here.
If you do get lucky and chip up in a hand, chances are good you are close to 3x your final table starting stack or more as a result, thanks to blinds and antes and that guy who isolated with 77. You have now bought yourself a little more time. Pick that next spot well.
Story time kids, gather round.
I always seem to have a knack for a big hand very early at a final table. Last three games it was AK, AA, and JJ.
In the first of these, my average stack of 22000 got pushed all in in very early position, and the player who called, who had not played with me before, assumed desperation due to the size of the bet and position and called with AQ. The double up would have made me a player, except KK got busted to knock me back down to 30,000 on the very next hand. I still grinded to 3rd although I never had a significant stack.
Game 2, the Donkey-fed monster stack found AA in the BB after the shortest stack went all in UTG and the table folded to me. If you recall, Donkey had blown the rest of his 36ooo chips racing his K8 against my QQ to hit the bricks in 11th. Short stack found not one but two 3s to suck out. It was only 7000 chips against my huge stack, but that more than double was parlayed to 4th, and at one point 5 handed that short stack had 60,000 chips. If fate smiles, ride the smile.
Game 3, I picked up 7th position and Donkey Kong Jr., the loose aggressive player who doubled me up to get the there in my last blog, raised first hand UTG. The play folds to me and all my chips come in with JJ. DKJr. still has a stack of 45,000 if he folds, and he makes a comment like he knows he's beat, and makes the call anyway with A9. JJ holds up. DKJr. will tilt up next hand and throw the rest in and bust out in 10th. Way to make the adjustment.
To continue the theme, the very next hand the short stack who is now UTG puts his remaining 10,ooo chips in and I wake up with JJ again. I go all-in to protect it, and his A10 picks up a full house.
Welcome to the final table! Best roller coaster in town.
Back to basics.
One thing about the final table is that suddenly you are face to face with 5 players whom you have never played against before, and one or two have huge stacks of chips. Obviously, with a monster stack myself, I can afford to be patient to get a feel for the new players. This past Monday, I needed more information. With only 22,000 chips and blinds of 1000/2000, I wouldn't have the time.
The process of moving the players and assigning seats takes a little time, and we happened to be at a break time, so we had some time to chat before play got started.
There are two big stacks who are new to me, but they are no mystery. The one seated two seats left is older, long haired, quiet, relaxed. His demeanour tells me he is comfortable at a final table. This is an experienced player, and I bet he earned his chips. His name was Kirby, and I respect his game, so no nicknames for Kirby. Al thinks he's seen Kirby on TV playing before. Most likely a Canadian Poker Tour event (major hint: PokerMonster is Canadian: all the big games I have described are CPT events, and I am very impressed by both their regularity, and the quality of players they attract)
Big stack #2 is two seats right. He is a big, 30 something Lebanese guy wearing an ethnic skull cap and talking with a street demeanour. He feels the need to share his past victories at the table. I tell him that I was #2 last week and aim to improve. I offer to shake his hand and wish him luck heads up...he seems a little put off by my return volley of trash talk. I have my tell. Lets call him Fezman (he's not wearing a Fez, but Fezman sounds funny).
Incidentally DKJr. decides he needs to announce that this is his 5th final table. I tell him its mine too (although the Pokerdb shows me at 77 top 10 finishes in the last year online, but who's counting). He seems to get a little shy on my response.
Kirby never pipes up during the trash talk. My read is confirmed. He is sucking in the information and offering none. He's a playa.
Okay, basic early tourney strategy is simple. As much patience as you can afford while the table is large and while the short stacks are fighting for their lives. With a big stack, I may be calling or pushing against some short stacks with playable hands AJ or better, 66 or better which could very well be coinflips, as long as my risk is small and I don't find a raiser coming after me for more. A more modest stack requires more action.
This Monday I have already gone up and back down a bit once. The general tightness of the table is my advantage here. Fezman has shown a propensity to just limp in a lot. I tend to stay out of his way early, because he invites raises and usually makes the calls. He really likes small PPs. This is not desirable action for me. Thankfully, I usually have position on Fezman, and Kirby is not the loose aggressive type. He is no hurry. He also has listened to my table talk and recognized my confidence is connected to experience and ability as well. When he raises, he has a raising hand. When I raise, I do to. I have demonstrated that in the first three hands. Kirby and I tend to stay out of each other's way. I am usually doing all in in front of him to target small stacks in the blinds to his left. He knows enough to know I have the goods to showdown my targets.
Fez in fact won a huge pot limping in AJ when Young Rock, still tight as ever, moved all in with 45,000 chips and AK. Fez made the call without thought while we were still 8 handed. YR knew who to target, but Fez sucked out two J's (sound familiar? My play was desperate, Fez's was just ignorant. Respect the quiet guy with the healthy stack who you haven't played with, Fez). In the end, this suckout will be very beneficial, having knocked out a dangerous player to chip up player who will ultimately distribute those chips elsewhere.
Fez had AA early and in early position and went all in to no callers, and then showed and commented his desire to protect it. He then said he might regret not attracting some action. He will prove to be a prophet.
Unlike Fezman, I never limp a hand this early at a final table. If I want to play a hand, I want to represent strength so a short stack is not invited to steal. Most of my play, in fact, is all in where a short stack is in the BB. The short stack respects the raise, and I show AQ to confirm I had a showdown hand. I want to just steal and maintain and target short stacks at this point.
Lets demonstrate one big pot Fezman probably shouldn't have been in.
Let me add that Fezman, who truly had a monster stack, has recently doubled Kirby when he limps in K3 sooted and Kirby makes the call with position. K-10-Q is the flop, and Kirby just calls an initial moderate bet. Turn is nothing and they go check check. River is an A and Fez moves all in. Kirby was slowplaying K10 and doubles.
Fezman again is the first to act and again limps in for 4000. Kirby has the button and raises to 15000. The BB, a lady with a real survival knack moves all her chips in for 18,000: and, conceivably, her read is right: Fez has any hand, Kirby has decided to steal, and she has AQ.
This is my first example of a controversial but universally-applied rule. Kirby's raise of 11,000 requires a legal reraise of at least 11,000 more, for a total of 26,000, but Survival Girl can't make a legal raise: the rule is that no player can reraise over her bet, they can only fold or call.
Fez should have folded, but implied odds and the prospect of knocking out player 7 and the rule induced the call: indeed, Kirby would have gone all in here if he could, and perhaps his 15000 bet was a small mistake on his part for having invoked the rule.
Flop is K 10 9 all diamonds. Fezman checks, and clearly expected Kirby to continue a check down, but Kirby does all in.
Suddenly, Fezman realizes he is down to less than 30 K and that he is bit off more than he can chew. They all show their hands (Fez should also have mucked) His 88 one diamond was currently beat to Kirby's set of 10's. SG has the Q of diamonds but cant catch her J or diamond.
This is a critical example of why NOT to check down. Fezman had flopped huge and was still 24% to get beat with 2 cards to go. I discussed sets against flush draws much earlier in the MONSTER DRAW blogs: a simple reminder: a pair on the board is not all that infrequent and will bust the flush. The possibility that Fezman will get his diamond and move chips will come in creates a need to protect the rest of Kirby's stack, and if SG can still beat a set of 10's she was meant to win and survive yet again. That set is both way too strong and way too vulnerable not to protect it. Add the prospect of keeping Fezman from a monster pot to get back in this, and the move is very, very sound poker.
Now Kirby has, like, all the chips, I am in second with 85,000 and what is left is short. Fez will eventually lose to me in 4th when he limps in with K6 sooted, and I compel the rest of his 30,000 when I push with A10. And no, A10 is not a good pushing hand, but it is against Fez, who never seems to have a sense of where he stands at the table or in a hand. There was an element of surrender to his call.
Other than my AA suckout, very little to tell from my adventures with the big stack from the week before in early play. Had mostly folding hands, and no one wanted to play against me, so I stole a little and waited for the table to thin out. The only bust out of note is when everyone folded to my BB except the SB, who just completes the minbet. I have A10 and push his last 8,0o00 in, and he calls, as if he was trapping, with KJ. Obviously another time to raise with A10 arises here.
Okay, I have a movie I want to watch. So much for early final table play. With the short stacks done, and the table short, its time to loosen up. Next blog.
The Lady of Luck will, eventually, double us all.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Chapter VII and a half, plus one: Road to the Final Table: Short Stacks and Suckout Artists (continued)
Ding Ding! Tourney players, please take your seats....
Okay, I chipped up, I chipped down, I chip all around, my now 6000 stack eventually enters the final 40, and our table is busted up. I wind up 2 seats the left of my friend Al, a very good poker player who I invited to join me. This is his first MTT, but he has 20 years beer-hall poker experience on me. He is surprisingly wound-up, but his stack is similar to mine. He has been grinding, and earned every chip. His table seems a bit scared of him. Al thinks this particular tourney has about 10% real players in it, and he's probably right.
Let me comment very briefly on Al and his first MTT. Al is mad at me for trying to play host and give him a heads up on where he was at in the game. He didn't want any sense of being a rookie. I was too talky and helpful, and his head was full of the game. This is pretty much how I was my first live MTT, but I had forgotten how intense the first MTT experience is. Very busy head, very in the game, very wound up. There are a lot of variables in live play to consider which you get shortcuts for online, like pot size and stack size which you have to figure out by sight (although you have seen me ask for a chip count many times to obtain further information), along with all the visual clues to get tells and make reads on players. The brain needs to be trained for live play with strangers, and anyone's first day at an MTT is a lot like the first day at a difficult new job. The brain fills to overflowing, and fatigue and stress buildup. 20 live MTTs or so later, the brain is trained, and I can play my game. In particular, 6 hour stints in larger, more expensive MTT's have given me the mental stamina to play 6 or more hours in these little weekly games, a significant contributing factor in my recent final table play. Yes we'll get to that eventually. Let's get you all there first.
I put a read on the players at the new table pretty quickly. There is an attractive woman in her late 20's who clearly is playing a solid, predictable, but smart game of raising with raising hands and playing post flop. She busts an all-in player who bet into her AQ on a Q high flop. Al tells me the K9 player who overplayed middle pair had had only one move: all in. The lady immediately to my right has gone all in preflop, usually to open the pot, about 4 times in 20 hands. There is a 20 something kid who likes to see flops. Lets call him Donkey Kong Jr. I will talk about him in a bit.
Blinds are 300/600 with 75 ante and 6000 chips is not a happy state with blinds that big. I have been forced to give up some blinds, and about 25 hands later, I have 4000 chips in the BB. Pretty Lady has opened the pot early with 1400. Pretty Lady has a hand.
Play folds to All-In Lady. You will never guess. She went all in.
I have AJ diamonds in the BB. I have All-In Lady covered by maybe 500 chips and Pretty Lady has me well stacked. I curse aloud, a raise and a re-raise and I wake up with a hand. I am short stacked, I am behind at least one of these players, my friend Al may very well outlast me here, and I see AJ sooted.
I do not advocate making this play in a 10 handed table for any reason with anything less than a good PP. 10 10 will do nicely. AJ? I'm all-in. I have put PL on a good hand, AIL on a steal.
Pretty Lady has easily enough chips to make the call, and does. She shows 10 10. All-In Lady shows AK off. How embarrassing. I smell a J coming?
I see a J on the window....and the spread is ....omg....a second J. Fate or dumb luck....for all my advice in prior blogs on when and with what to push, necessity is reality. Expect to pick up your jacket and walk out folks throwing AJ into a 3-handed pot, not rake in 12,000 in fresh chippies.
Okay, so I have exposed my loose and lucky side. Last game, I was a mountain of strong play exploiting a deep and loose stack. This one, I gamble. I had to make this move. I didn't want to.
Enough excuses. Al the Rock exploits a new player at the table in the BB when he raises 2000 of his remaining 4000 in early position and the BB raises all in. All rides his AA to a double up against AJ, and I begin to see some hope for us both limping to the final.
There's too good reasons to dump AJ. Early position raiser who has been very patient is pot committed? I fold. If I am new to the table, only a very deep stack moves in. The New Gal was not deep.
I know I and Al both need more chips though. Another double will do. Hmm.....who wants to double up the Monster?
Enter.....Donkey Kong ....er...Jr.
I actually like Donkey Kong Jr.'s game. He is a preflop calling station who plays well post flop,often out of position. Any raise which isn't outrageous is likely to find DKJr. calling to see a flop and try to outplay you. He made a very nice pot calling a raise of 2500, putting 3 in the pot on a 689, two diamond flop, and calling A7 diamonds all in post flop with Q9 off.
This is, of course, a monster draw. 9 diamonds, 6 more 5s and 10s, and 3 aces to 2 nines and 3 queens, which can only bust the A catch. Lets call that 16 NET OUTS or (rough math) a whopping 65% favorite with 2 cards to go. Nice draw. No luck.
So Donkey Kong Jr is chipped up and I will soon learn not to bother stealing with A9 into his blinds. I need a new strategy. DKJr's strength is post flop, his weakness is preflop. A typical loose-aggressive style, but his game is unrefined. He is greedy. He doesn't know when to say when. He has 50,000 chips plus, we are down to 14 handed, there is only one other big stack at the table, with the exact opposite style, a Young Rock with a knack for pulling all-ins into his monsters who hasn't played a hand since he last won a huge pot holding AA, other than limp ins from the button with an ace in hand. Young Rock knows he has the chips to play the final and can let all these small stacks eat each other while picking his nose into the money.
DKJr. just can't slow down, so I set him up. He is 4 hands to my left, so I have position on him when he is in the blinds and he is in early position when I am in the blinds. This is a good situation, I have relative safety.
When play folds to me in the SB, I know the older Chinese gentleman in the BB to my left is an advocate of proper poker: he keeps complaining about DKJr's loose play and pretty much acts like he's the Professor of Poker. I can put a play on this fellow, and, with 27 off suit, I raise the 1000 blind to 3500 of my 9,000, and he has to fold. I have to show, and chuckle that I couldn't resist the move, which was true, but the show is calculated. It wasn't for Professor P to see, it was for DKJr.
2 hands later, after DKJr. folds UTG, I make another stealing raise from the cutoff, although I had a reasonable hand to play too. I take down the blinds and antes and show nothing.
The very next hand DKJr. is in the BB, and play folds to me. I have AJ. And I know exactly how to play it. I go all-in, and tell my fine fellow Prof. Poker that this seems to be the only way to get DKJr. to fold a hand, because he'll call anything less.
DKJr. has a lot of chips, and my 12000 ain't that big a deal. My man is set up. He thinks this is a steal. He calls with A2.
A2! Naturally, I hold up, a miracle, really, and I am able to eventually carry 24000 chips, an average stack, to the final table.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you AJ, when, and how, to push with it, and when not to. Oh, and NEVER CALL ANYTHING with A2. You are at best the slightest favorite against any two random hands and no better than 30% against ANY PP or ANY ACE OVER A7 (lower and you can add about a 20% split factor if the board plays higher cards to the kickers). Heads up, I may raise with it, but no way I call with it unless my opponent is on life support; and then maybe not simply because it can pay heads up to keep an opponent's small until he finally steps into a real hand, but I am WAY ahead of myself.
Poor, poor Al. I was hoping he would find a double up with DKJr. too. He blinded and anted himself out on the bubble. 11th. No money. And he will curse me later for putting his last 100 chips in just so he had a chance to win the antes and see 3 more hands. That guy knew where he stood skill level and showed me a competitiveness I hadn't seen before. I'm scared. I may have created another Monster.
Al did great, and is just as savvy a player to target DKJr for a double-up too. He just didn't get the same opportunity. He will be back.
Are you itching for it? Final Table really is next blog. Maybe I'll have 3 to talk about. I;m freerolling into the $100 game tomorrow as a final tune up for Saturday's Big Event.
The Lady of Luck loves us all equally. Night all.
Chapter VII and a half: Road to the Final Table: Short Stacks and Suckout Artists
Poker stories poker stories poker stories...Last night's game involved me exploiting a whole bunch of mistakes, so there are quite a few hands to talk about.
Let's start with the very first hand I played, some10 minutes in, when with 25/25 blinds and 2500 chips. I open the pot early with 150 and AK off suit.
The fellow to my right makes a raise of 600. We have 2500 chips, blinds 25/25, there is a total of 200 in the pot, and he has committed 1/4 of his chips. I am suspicious, and I say so. I tell him he obviously doesn't want to see a flop.
In many many circumstances I put a player on a small PP here, but this move is just so bizarre. I have AK, and my comment got the right body language response. He is stiff, all too stiff. He is offering a big pot and my hand is a coin flip to bust up 83% of any PP, let alone any crap he may be trying to make this big play with. This raise is just an early-play test of moxie.
No, I don't re-raise all-in. I could have, but my comment said I wasn't afraid of a flop, so I call the 600 after a brief time in the tank to coordinate my head with my gut.
Fantastic scare flop: 7-8-9, all spades. I'm pretty sure I saw I saw a spade in my hand, but I have to look back and check...sorry not the A, its the K. My read on this guy completely excludes an Ace in his hand, so K of spades is good enough. It does not take long to put the rest of my chips over the line. I am all-in post flop, on the very first hand I play.
As an aside, with a flush draw on board like that, if someone peeks back, the player is usually looking for the strength of that draw. With any subsequent interest in the flop or a next card for a reasonable price, put him on the flush draw/made flush and play accordingly. I like to give a flush draw correct odds on a bet to call a turn: this seems strange, but the flush is only 18% to hit the next card, I have made a modest value bet which does not commit me to the pot, and I have the information required to know what to do following the turn card. The next bet is probably all in if the card is innocuous.
His turn to go in the tank on my early all-in move. It is a dare. No way I make this move with the made flush unless it is small: I am the initial raiser, so if I have the flush it is not small. The raise is, of course, consistent with a good ace or two big paint, or a solid PP, which in this case, includes a spade. Obviously AA including the A of spades would be impossible to drop on this flop.
What I have is a MONSTER DRAW. 9 outs to make the flush, 3 more Kings, 2 more Aces, all of which will beat his 44 (assumed). The simple math makes me a 56% favorite without hitting anything. My huge bet said a few things (1) try and make a dumb play like that again I'll make it for all out chips (an important message) and (2) If I didn't already have you beat preflop I have you now or will catch up. Maybe I have two red kings and I have seen enough. Maybe I am just willing to double up or go home.
After mulling over his trouble, he folds. Later (soon, and not by my hand), when he busts out, he will be heard to whine about how he flopped the nut straight and couldn't call the bet because of the spades. If he really bet 600 with 10J, he deserves to lose them. I have already ranted about 10J off suit, the worst hand in poker, and 10J sooted, the 2nd worst. Look it up. And I don't believe him anyway. He overplayed a very small PP, tops.
I do not show my hand. No way I show there. I just profess my love of the flop. I want to marry that flop, dammit.
One blind round later, we are folded to and enjoy a battle of the blinds for our 25 cent commitments. I have 7J and enjoy a 347 flop, and bet out 75. He calls. The turn is a J, and I bet 200. He calls. The river is a 3 and I check. He bets....wait for it....600 chips. I tell him there is no way he has a 3 and make the call and declare 2 pr. He mucks, but curses the J and says he had 72. I think he thought I had caught up after the bluff, and failed to notice that my 2 pr was JJ 77 not JJ 33. He will be out soon after pushing his 1000 with...I don't remember.
Its funny how people don't pay attention. Those were littlish pots, well played, that said two things: I am willing to get my chips in. I play well from the blinds.
Soon after, with blinds now 25/50, I am in the BB when several players limp in, maybe 4. The small blind pushes it up to 400. I have seen this play so many times before. SB smells weakness and steals. Works often early, usually falls into traps late. This was a bet designed to force any limping hand to drop, and take down the pot there. I have QQ and quickly call. I want to disguise my hand a bit, so I do not raise a fuss. I very strongly suspect I have position on a bluffer.
The flop is 10 10 4 rainbow. And my SB opponent's behaviour is bizarre. He uncaps his cards and stares down at them for 30 seconds. His hand almost looks like its ready to muck without a fight. Inevitably he checks.
This player has played well up to this point, and has me stacked marginally, about 4800 to 4200. He is hardly committed to his 400 chips. I make a big bet intended to announce that he is in trouble...1300, committing 1/3 of his chips to call.
Lets talk about 10-10-4 flops and big PPs for a second. Lets assume you have a big PP and you are sure you are ahead preflop and heads up, and you see a flop like this. If the opponent had a smaller PP, the odds of flopping quads are astronomical (1 in 48 x 1 in 48 x 3 flopped cards is 0.13%, but yes I have flopped quads and gotten paid a few times, which only says I have seen over 3000 flops with pocket pairs) and having 44 hit the set happened last week so It can't happen twice to my big PP that soon (its only 12%), and odds are similarly weak that he raised with a 10. Many good players who have gotten heads up preflop will feel very strong about the strength of a big PP here. Many so-so players will assume a small PP, like 88 is good here, and pray their opponent has AK and missed the flop or simply can't call and risk it. The good players who smell a small PP steal here and have a big PP rarely fold,and lets face it, people who make big calls like this usually have the chips to look you up any way.
My opponent check raises me all in. There is no way a man who has flopped a set or a full house makes this move. You keep up the song and dance. You grumblingly make the call, and hope you can sell another bet on the turn...maybe value bet it yourself. Lets face it, you checked a set, you got a big bet, any move back will clue in your clever opponent that he walked into something, but you got your big bet once. Any move at all....
Except all-in. Why does a huge hand try and push me out of the pot with no draw on the board? He doesn't. I call very quickly. "Good call" he says, and shows what I knew all along, Q5 sooted. I have lost count how many times I have called all in raises with QQ and seen Q high sooted.
Thanks for the chips.
But people just don't learn. I earn another 1500 chips soon after when a fellow with KK limps in, lets me see my A8 spades in the BB for free, catches a K high 2 spade hand, checks to my check on the flop, bets only 250 to my check on the turn (not a spade), and then lets me catch the 10 of spades, and check-raise him for 1200 more chips. I had suspected the 250 was a value bet but 250 of 8000 chips is pretty low risk to see that river.
This player, who watched me bust a big bluffing stack, and got outplayed for a big pot because he decided to get cute with KK, will have forgotten everything 45 minutes later.
45 minutes later, feeling good about my huge start, and then gambling away 2500 trying to bust 2 short stacks with a gut shot straight flush draw (an opponent had my 6 of clubs...not quite a monster but 12 outs is nice) and another 3500 trying to bust a player with my 88 vs. AQ (I suspected someone considered his bet and mucked an A, and he had been making stealing raises from position every time I wanted to play a cheap pot, so I wanted him out, but he rivered his A)...wow, that's a run-on sentence....I am on the button when the board folds to the man to my right, who limps in. Blinds are 150/300, I have 3500 chips or so, and I have AA. I don't want to scare too much off here, I have donked off chips and need to get paid, so I raise to 800.
The BB calls, the same player who had misplayed his set of cowboys and paid off my flush. So does the original limper.
The flop is 6 10 J rainbow. The BB and limper check to me. I am not concerned with this flop at all. If QK is in the pot, I have 2 of 8 straight outs covered and his overcards are valueless. 78? I like to give my opponents a little credit. Before I had made an over bet with QQ...this time I feel safe, and make a value bet, another 800.
Lets look how I am representing here. I am short stacked, on the button, and make a weak stealing raise. The flop has potential, and I make a weak stab at the pot. A weak bluff preflop followed by a weak stab at the pot?
BB thinks so. He check-raises me all in. Maybe he didn't notice that my 1600 actually had substantially committed me to the pot. Maybe he thought I'd missed.
The original limper, who is well stacked by BB, folds. I, in calling, remind him that the last guy who pulled a check-raise stunt on me ran into a big hand.
BB is embarrassed, and hold his card up and refuses to show them as we see the river, a 9, and turn, a ...something, before I get to see that he had 68 off suit.
Interestingly, the original limper pipes up. He did have QK, and would have called the 800, and caught his 6 outer, and likely busted me. BB's dumb play saved my AA from a suckout.
The real moral to this story is: if there is a guy who is outplaying others and making big calls and plays at your table give the dude respect. You may pull off a cute play once, but you will fall into a trap the next time and you'll be out (We will here all about THAT GUY when I talk about this final table). I have discussed AT LENGTH out of position play, including good check raises. If in doubt, read them again. A check raise with a piece of the flop without a solid read on the better is a big pot you just lost.
Ding Ding! Dinner break. I'm going to post this now and continue this story a bit later.
Final Table Preview: PokerMonster on a rush
Hey folks, another late night return from Monday casino tournament, which means more final table stories. same result as last week...2nd for $1100...but a very different route to getting there.
So, nect long blog, final table play from both the monster stack and the short stack, different starts, different approaches, same result.....
Night All. May luck be yer lady and all that.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Chapter VII: Raising hands and calling hands: short handed final 30 play
Hello pokerers and pokeretters.
Last blog, I really had only introduced the concept of final 30 play involving two primary themes (a) time to chip up! (b) those blinds are gonna get ya!
I am not advocating loose and lucky here. Every raise and every call should be carefully considered. When we are playing to win, we're trying to do more than merely gamble our fortunes away.
I have time and time again discussed the hands capable of being raised in short handed/late position stealing situations. It is important to understand that these are not necessarily calling hands. This is because when you open the pot with a raise, you are not the gambler: the player considering whether to call or reraise is. When I raise with KJ, I have two shots of winning the pot: first, if everyone folds, second, if the flop hits my hand. My reputation thus far will assist in improving the odds of winning the hand preflop, but if, in spite of solid/scary reputation, my raise gets reraised, I have a tough call to make: is the player desperate, or very strong?
I have recently discussed three hands, which I will briefly review:
- We are 7 handed, final table, I have a monster stack. I have just stolen a pot with A-crap on the button, and have the players fold to me where I see 88, and raise it to 20,000 (blinds 3000/6000). The BB, with 60,000 chips, goes all in. I tell him I have a hand, and I get no sign of weakness. I have to fold.
- We are final 30, 8 handed, I have a medium stack, blinds 300/600. Play folds to me in the cut off, and I raise to 1600 with KJ. SB reraises all in with the same size stack as me. I know him to be a strong player: I have to fold, and he will show 99.
- We are 4 handed, final table, my monster stack has now whittled down: after a monster bluff, I have stolen 10k from my neighbour to the left to come up to 60,000 chips. He now has 40k, and goes all in from UTG. Play folds to me in the BB where 88 awaits. With only some reluctance I make the call for 66% of my stack, knowing that losing will cripple me. 88 holds up against A10, I am back to 110,000 chips, and we are three handed with one other big stack and one cripple.
But there is more to it. I have already commented on the strength of 88 against A-random card raising, but I am among the 4 survivors of 110 players. This is a good player. He just folded an A when I pushed all in. He is not going to risk his life on A4 here.
The real reason is that 88 gets stronger against two live overcards as the table shortens. My opponent had a hand that was good but needed protection. My made hand is a pretty solid favorite due to the size of the table.
Math time. Sorry.
In chapter one we talked about the REAL VALUE of AK as a drawing hand. The primary concern at the time was AK running into multiway big pots. In short-handed play, the multiway pot is not the concern, its the probability of catching those cards.
My previous calculations all dealt with 10 handed play. Lets look at A10 vs 88 in 8 handed, 6 handed, and 4 handed play. Lets also assume that we are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN no other player mucked an A,10, or 8, so the remaining deck is live for both players. For the purposes of this exercise, we will simply treat the burn cards as part of the live deck. A10 pushes from UTG, and everyone folds instantly to you with 88 in the BB, and you know if you call you are up against these two, or similar, predictable overcards.
8 Handed
- A10 has 6 outs of 36 live cards, representing 16.7% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 83% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5.56% of the deck, and are 27.8% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 is a 55% favorite here, making this a tough call to make
- A10 has 6 outs of 40 live cards, representing 15% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 75% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 5% of the deck, and are 25% likely to catch too. The result is the A10 and 88 are in a dead heat coin flip. If I a reasonable number of chips to spare, I may make this call.
- A10 has 6 outs of 44 live cards, representing 13.6% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 68% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.5% of the deck, and are 23% likely to catch too. 88 is now a 55% favorite. This becomes a tough laydown. Short stacked, my odds are too good not to make a move: if I am chipped up, my odds to knock out a final table opponent here are too good to fold too. Only when I am even stacked with my opponent does this become a tough call. As I did last Monday, I made the call because the blinds were getting very big, I was getting weathered away, and the opportunity to be a favorite for a big pot may not come up again. If the blinds were much cheaper....well...I doubt he puts all 40,000 chips into the pot in the first place.
- A10 has 6 outs of 48 live cards, representing 12.5% of the deck, 5 of which we will see. The result is 62.5% likely A10 will catch a pair. My two 8s are 4.2% of the deck, and are 21% likely to catch too. If I make the call with 88, I am 58.2% likely to double up or win the tournament.
IF YOU CAN FIND A MUCKED ACE AT THE TABLE AND YOU CAN READ YOUR PLAYER AS HOLDING ACE-GOOD, SERIOUSLY CONSIDER A CALL WITH ANY POCKET PAIR IN ALMOST ANY SHORT HANDED SITUATION.
Take your time and talk to the player. If you cannot make your read, keep probing, and think back to the hands the player has raised before. I particularly like a K-paint push here, just because an obviously mucked Ace may induce the PP to call thinking I am out-deficient when I am not. The more I play the more I find sophisticated players who are much more fond of K high hands than A high hands fro this reason. Miller and Sklansky's book on hold'em theory has an excellent section on hands to push with to ensure you have 2 live when you get called: QK was once my favorite pushing hand until reading that Chapter: tighter players will be calling with AQ, AK, AA, KK, and QQ, all of which put QK in serious trouble, and, of course, trying to gamble against a tight players raise will likely showdown one of these hands, particularly when you re-raise from position.
This is of course the basis for my criticism of players who decided to gamble with Donkey with tiny hands like 44. Donkey's typical raising hand was Paint high-7 or higher. In other words, he's not a complete idiot. His gambles are all designed to maximize two live potential. Other loose aggressive players in these late rounds employ a similar strategy, and it will be important to push with decent PP's 99 or higher against them which will typically be much stronger than A-big against the "two-live aggressive" strategy. AK vs QJ is only a 60% favorite, but 99 dominates the majority of these paint-middle pair combinations.
Against Donkey, you will note, I either saw flops I could afford with good hands and played post flop, or pushed his raises heavy with good PP's (10 10 and QQ). If I had had a strong Ace, which I never did, it is likely I would have seen a flop against Donkey.
Against shorter stacks and held by typical conservative players, expect A high especially if you have seen them calling or raising any Ace or decent aces before. Also keep in mind that these players would not likely go in with very strong PPs: the temptation to trap for value would give these hands away to you. The A high read should become very easy to make with experience.
The moral: following an accurate read, the modest PP can be a very strong calling hand.
Lets take an out away from A10 in all the above situations (except heads up of course):
- 8 handed, A10 has lost 13.8%, putting his chances at 42%, significantly lower than 55%;
- 6 handed, a 12.5% loss drops A10 down to 38.5%;
- 4 handed, a 11.4% loss drops A10 down to a miserable 33.6%.
Obviously, putting an all in player on Ace high while reading that an Ace has been mucked can make a call with any small PP attractive, as your odds are identical. With particularly small PP's though, there is an added element of 2 pair hitting the board to counterfeit your hand which knocks a few percentage points off your odds, but still, if we are 6 handed, an A-high kind of guy goes all in, someone considers a call, and I can afford to lose with 44, it is an almost instant call.
When you go back to hand example 2, you can see why KJ was a pretty quick fold against a raise. A-live is easier to determine whether outs have been folded: in this situation, a weak J or K will be laid down without a whimper. What I didn't know was that all the 9s were mucked. I had to assume he had a PP or an A. I was pretty sure I had "two live", but the prospect of only 5 or less available outs, making me 42% or less to win (the same odds as beating A10 or AQ), pretty much guaranteed I'd be getting in with the worst of it.
Next blog: Final table strategy.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
VI(4): crisis time: the final 30 and beyond!
Hello again. Back from my freeroll, busting out in 20th. Couldn't build a stack, couldn't fold 88 UTG with my last 5000....
Nothing too thrilling from today, perhaps just a quick lesson in good live poker etiquette.
In the third level, 50/100, I raise the UTG limper with AA to 400. The table folds to me and UTG makes the call. We see a 478 flop, and UTG is all in.
I have seen this guy be all in early before. It is a ridiculous overbet here. The pot is 1000. He has 4000. I have 3200. It is suspicious. I have AA. I call immediately.
I expect to see A8 or 99. He has 44.
This was a bad play on his part, and he was very lucky to get a caller. The game is early, why put me on a calling hand? Why protect a set? Some pros say bet big with a set after calling a raise, but you may recall my advice about playing sets: if not, look for it for more details. Even the pro advice does not suggest go all in. Make a good bet that can be raised by your opponent.
If I have AK, I fold to the all in bet. He has a hand that doesn't need protection. The straight draw is incredibly unlikely. There are few players who will raise 10-9 or 5-6 so early. He just got excited and overbet like a silly goose (premature ejaculation: there are pills for it. See your doctor!)
If I am the dude with 44, I either probe (value) bet, say 400 or 500 or less, or check and try to disguise my hand as the straight draw (like last blog with QQ hitting the set with the flush draw).
The A hit the turn. He paid off big, and I stacked huge.
Now, lets put me on AK here, and replay this hand from 44's perspective post flop.
I am assuming the raiser has strong mixed paint (QK) or a strong A(at least AJ), maybe a PP. I want payment. I want to know whether I have a good PP or a strong A here so I can determine how best to get paid.
If 44 checks or bets modest, AK continuation bets 65% of the time, just calls 25%, and folds 10%, depending on the player, and depending on 44's ability to disguise his huge hand. We all over-invest in AK, and will often chase the Ace post flop for the right price.
Here, a modest bet will induce a raise from my AA or similar PP. He will know I have a big PP which is not AA if I reraise: of course, AA isn't afraid of an overcard, and I may slow play it too to maintain a disguise. Almost all PP's KK down will try to bet out any chance of losing when the flop looks so favorable.
This is probably what I do. That A on the turn then tells 44, likely, that AK has hit his hand, and a check or weak bet will induce a raise. Of course with AA, I may attempt to trap here, or let him try to represent hitting his fraudulent A. Bottom line, is I would disguise my hand with AA here to generate a river bet too. Maybe I play it like my KK just got busted.
With AK, I may ultimately get away from this hand, but probably not without serious damage. If he represented a liking to the flop, and appears unfrightened by the A, a good player like me may put the guy on A8 (or a set) and want to slow things down (another example of set radar: the player who appears unafraid of the scare card on the turn has a reason to be unafraid). Lesser players will fall in love with their AA top kicker and pay off mighty.
Lets compare this to an earlier hand...once again I have QQ in position very early (25/25 blinds) and raise to 150. I get three callers. I get a flop of Q 10 2 two diamonds. I am first to act and check (why not, eh). Everyone checks and the turn is the 10 of diamonds. I have a full house, and fear nothing. I bet value, 200, and get one caller. The river is the J of diamonds, and bet 300 and get called by AK, confidently turning over a straight (maybe he had a diamond too, who cares). Its not a huge pot, but I beat a huge hand and got good value by misrepresenting.
Okay, point of etiquette. 44 was very gracious in my suckout. We shook hands. He has 800 chips left, I have a huge stack. 30-odd hands later, he is blinded down to 275 when finally, UTG, he has to push. I owe this gentleman a call, and say so and do so with Q9 clubs. He says thank you. The table folds except for the BB, who only has 125 more to pay. BB indicates that he will check blind by rapping the table before the flop is shown, implying he will check it down. I tell him I agree. I catch my flush on the turn, and I am tempted to bet, even reach for chips, but honour the agreement to check down.
The pot was tiny. This is another good reason to (a) call and (b) check down. We gave the all-in short stack some credit for a hand and some real respect (he had A8). In a game where busting people is the focus, a gracious winner who is also a good player makes friends at the table, not enemies. (Coincidentally, the gentleman I busted in 4th on Monday was also at my table on Wednesday, and being a courteous winner made for a friendly table next tourney (we got to share with the table his suckout story when he had 7000 and A3 UTG when my 100,000 chips and BB woke up with AA and had to apologize for calling...he caught 2 more 3s and managed to grind through into 4th...assisted by a massive bluff on my part with 73 all in into his A high BB the hand before I busted him with 88 in a race with A10).
I want to talk about that final table a bit, but offer some final comments on crisis time and late position play.
You will observe that the first 5 to act fold so often in crisis time, that the final 3, especially the cut off and button, tend to raise and steal. I have talked in early middle play about a number of hands, mixed paint, 88 or better pps, which make good raising hands in these positions as semi steals. It is very rare for me to attempt a steal with 73 or similar trash, and as a result, I can still represent a hand when stealing. From these positions, these hands offer you live cards and coinflips if reraised, but here are situations where YOU SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT A TRASH HAND STEAL IN CRISIS TIME, IF THE SB OR BB IS:
- very short stacked. Desperation will induce a call with any hope of 2 live. The semi stealing hands mentioned are legitimate pushing hands against short stacks however.
- Very large stacked, or generally willing to see flops from bad positions and have strong skills out of position (like me). I won a nice pot today putting the cutoff raise as 50/50 a steal and calling the 1100 bet with K10 spades. The flop was 10 9 4 two more spades, and went all in. I could have check raised the inevitable continuation bet too, but its not like I knew we had a K in common and had to assume two live overcards, 4 outs only to be sure, but I want to stay, not get sucked out on, and my K high flush has been second best plenty of times too. He showed his AK and folded. Hopefully I have taught you how to play similarly fearlessly from the blinds. This is the best way to prevent steals. I and the short stack beside me often got no action on Monday. Today, I had the benefit of the chip leader (who had cleared his former table of chips and usurped me as table captain) to my right to protect my BB.
- Assess your player. Weak players (and you should know by now) have A high only. If you have them stacked, and were only semibluffing, you might as well join in and chase your 2 live. If you had 88 or better, you are likely dominating. Stronger players (those who don't call in love with any ace) have a legitimate hand when they raise. I attempted a KJ semi steal of 1600 with 200/400 blinds into a SB player with a similar chip stack, he went all in quite quickly. The B B was shorter stacked. I couldn't call the SB, told him I'd respect his Ace, and he showed me 99. The BB told us he had A9, and would have moved if the SB got out of the way. I would have called the BB (and it would turn out the case 9 was also folded) and raced. I knew pretty well I had two live here, but I also had 4500 chips left in my stack, and a desire to stick around longer. The BB player would later just limp in AQ from the steal position to avoid losing a big pot. I sure had my man read. He hates aces more than I do. I would go all in with AQ UTG a few hands later and show him after the table folds, just for fun.
- Hopefully, you are only semistealing. If you raised with trash THERE IS ALMOST NO JUSTIFICATION FOR CALLING. Showing down trash will destroy your reputation, even if you do suck out. The next time you raise, I hope you want action (SEE THE STORY OF DONKEY IN LAST BLOG). If you raised a desperate short stack with trash, get your head in the game mister! Folding to just a few chips more says "trash" just as much as showing the table the truth. Even with a monster stack, laziness or aggressiveness for its own sake will attract action from the wrong players: the good ones, who have been patiently waiting for you.
Do you want to win or just limp into the money? Time to decide. If you're reading this, you want to hit the final table and be a factor in it. Right? Good.
Lets say you have an average stack in the final 30...As in last blog, this is 7500 to 12500 in chips. This is simply not going to be enough. You are in okay shape against 300/600 blinds with 12500 in chips, you have equity for patience, and a stack which may be hard to call or raise when you don't necessarily want action... but its time for action, not stack maintenance.
In the casino game I play, the average stack at the final table will be about 25000 chips, and the blinds will be at the 500/1500 or 1000/2000 levels to start (yes 500/1500 is a weird level. Discuss it with the tourney director). The average stack in a 10 handed table has some time, but at just over 10x the blinds, not a lot (and don't forget those antes sucking you dry). Aim for the average, and hope for an opportunity to chip up to a serious final table contender (see last blog!). The final table average is easy to calculate, the expected blind level will be a matter of tourney experience. Prepare for both and try to stack up to accommodate your needs.
You have to play for action now. This means trapping with big hands, and brilliant play post flop to get paid when you have monsters and take down pots when the fortunes are less bright but you have you have found the green light from your opponent(s), like when your modest PP is against overcards post flop, but you get the right read.
I have already provided many many examples of understanding when an under PP is good, when to call a raise with the BB and huge play from the blinds and early position. Time to put all those skills to use, and play fearlessly as if you don't care how late its getting, how close the final table bubble you are, or how big or small your stack is. You have managed your stack well for 3 or more hours now. Time to wield that stack and the reputation you earned by using both as weapons of mass destruction. In doing so that earned reputation will build and build. So will your stack.
Keep in mind as well, in final 30 time, that the tables are going to shrink. From 30 to 21, your table will shrink from 10 to 7 until the 20 bubble bursts. From 20 to 10, it can be as small as 5 players until you make the final.
You need to chip up in an ever tightening noose around your neck of rapidly repeating blinds amid desperate shortstacks and very talented players who already have the survival skills and stacks to match. All the players around you deserve huge respect. You cannot take a hand off. Their game is going to change, and so should yours. Those marginal semi-steal hands we have been discussing have just gone up in value, as have more modest aces. You have been avoiding them in early position before: There is no such thing as early position in a 6 handed table. Only the biggest stacks can be patient now. Modest stacks need to to push and pray. This means you. You may have been playing 1.5 hands for every BB in crisis play 10 handed. 15% of the pots is now every BB 6 and 7 handed. Get active. Get aggressive. Make creative calls. Time to play brilliant with modest holdings. Time to gamble a bit.
The only caveat to this advice is, while modest aces may have more value, and some legitimate showdown value, the tendency to call raises with Ace high at this time means you really aren't gambling with an Ace here, you're gambling with your kicker. AJ and A10 are great raising and calling hands here, but any lower might very well have serious kicker trouble if your raise gets called. I still prefer K9 over A9 here for obvious reasons when A10 comes calling.
Examples:
- from today, final 25: UTG is short stacked with 1000 chips. I am in SB and I;m not much better, blinds are 300/600 and I have 4500. UGH. Table folds to me, and I see QK spades. There is no way I'm folding. BB has me stacked. It is 700 for me and 400 for him to make the call. THERE IS NO WAY I AM CALLING AND CHECKING DOWN HERE. It is not about knocking shortie out. It is about winning the pot. I need to play heads up, and bet accordingly, all in. BB can't call, and I am happy to see UTG pushed with K10 (an excellent hand to push with, two live against most calling aces.). BB, the same guy who raised me with 99 and slowplayed A, tells me he had Q10. and would have easily made the call (of course). The river hits the Q, I win the pot I needed to win.
- Yesterday, final table, down to 7, I am huge (keep in mind this is still crisis time and the table is short just like final 30 play, with a few healthy stacks and some desperate ones at the table). The table folds to me in the SB. I have Q7 and complete the blind to 6000 and the BB (with some 45k to my 100k) checks. This is the power of the big stack. No one wants to play a big pot with the Monster. Flop is AK2. Turn is K. River is 3. We have check-checked all the way to the river, and BB decides to bet 20k, the pot, when I check the river. I tell him I'll look him up, announce my Q high. He has to muck. Of course he had nothing. Any BB player bets middle pair to a check from the SB post-flop after all. Any A gets raised preflop. The other cards, 2 and 3, are so extremely small, they are out on the margins of likely random hands the BB checks with. I don't think a player who has rivered a pair of 3s here bothers to bet. Too risky that the Monster was limp-trapping. The bet was an obvious bluff. He lost half his stack making it, and I enhanced my reputation as THE PLAYER AT THE TABLE.
- Again, yesterday, final table, 7 handed, and the other big stack has just lost a big pot, and everyone folds to him in the cutoff, where he raises my BB of 6000 to 15000. It is folded to me, and I state to him, "looks like an 'I just lost a big pot' steal to me" before I look at my cards and see 77. I had an all-in option here, but this is another big stack (65 to my 120) and big stacks tend to play cautiously against each other with so many small stacks to bust out until the money gets worthwhile. In similar circumstances I have raised all in with 77 and got (and lost) an undesirable showdown when, If I had called, I could have seen a 77-friendly small flop and won a medium pot with a strong bet (something I did much earlier today with a 7 high flop, 66 in the hole, and a modest continuation bet on a player I had stacked 6000 to 2000: I pushed him all in when he bet out 200 after raising preflop to 300), instead of losing a huge pot when a K hit the turn. Here, I call.
- The flop is hilarious: 5 AA. I look to my opponent and ask for a chip count. I am told it is 47k, he looks concerned. I check (I think I'm good, but I need to be sure). He checks back. (the prior hand where I called a big bet with Q high had already happened, so my opponent knows I can make big reads and big calls). The turn is another 5 and I immediately go all in. He folds. I show him the 77, just so he knows that I knew he had no ace.
- Incidentally, I recall a tourney on TV where Doyle Brunson and Lee Watkinson were heads up (a few seasons ago....google it, it is worth watching). With a similar flop and turn, and a river K, Lee called Doyle's big bet on the river expecting the board to play and the pot (in which he had a meaningful preflop investment) to split. Doyle had 10 10 and had figured out that (a) he was good, and (b) Lee expected the split before he bet the river. That tourney is (a) the very best poker I've seen Doyle play; (b) is a case study in how to play shorthanded and heads up (by both of them) and make brilliant calls and plays; and (c) is a very rare example of heads up play where the blinds are very small and every pot gets a bump up preflop and great post-flop poker gets played (as opposed to blinds so big you have to simply hold your nose and gamble preflop)
Final table talk next blog.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Chapter VI.4 Playing with position in crisis time: donkey to my right
Well, the boys got an impromptu game going tonight, so I have less time to blog about yesterday, but I'll see what I can do.
Yesterday's $1,100.00 payoff was 2nd out of 110 in a 50+10 casino tourney, a game highlighted by Yours Truly taking a monster chip lead to the final table. Here's how it went down.
I'm going to focus on crisis time play, but you might as well see how I chipped up to be in a position to play in crisis time in the first place.
There were two significant hands early.
The first was in hand 4, blinds 25/25, first hand I played, opening the pot early with 175 and QQ and getting one caller. Even with 2500 chips, that's a pretty big opening bet and call, and, even with QQ, I have to put my opponent on a solid hand.
And my flop is sweet: Q 43 two clubs. I have flopped a set. As I have said before, the common play here is to bet set, expecting to be raised, but it's hand 4, I have no real read on my opponent, other than he's a young guy with his trucker hat on crooked (I thought the 90's were over, but hey) and the guy had a calling hand. I feign respect to the caller with a check and call a bet of 275.
This bet is not likely a semi-bluff flush draw. Its just not big enough. Its a value bet. The guy has a serious hand, and I have top set. I can tell by the size of the bet and his demeanour. He wants to milk more chips from me, he thinks he's good, and I can disguise my set as a flush draw.
When the turn is another small club, I am disappointed, but not because I'm beat: lets face it, even if I'm dead wrong, how likely is it that AK clubs called my preflop raise? The disappointment is that I have represented a draw that just hit. When I check, he checks back.
The river is meaningless low red card. There is 800 in the pot. My turn to value bet: 600. If he has the flush and raises me, well, its not the first time I walked home early. I don't have him on a flush and my hand his huge. Instead he reluctantly calls, and he shows KK when I announce my set of ladies.
I am sure a lucky donkey. Without that Q on the flop, I would pay off a big chunk or all of my chips to any flop with undercards. Instead I picked up two things: a nice early big pot, and some table respect for playing a big hand well to get paid.
I will grind up to 5000 by the first break, and catch REAL SWEET the very first hand back.
Blinds are 100/200, and I open the pot in early position with a raise of 750 and AQ. Its a big bet for such an early position. I really don't want action, which is likely to be better. AQ is a trouble hand so early, but the Monster craves trouble....
I get a curious response from a late position player, somewhat new to the table, with about 6500 chips. He's all excited about his hand , but not about my raise. He says so. He is animated. And concerned. I am expecting a raise from him but he just calls. My gut instinct is he has 10 10.
His animation provokes an interesting response from another player in the BB. She has demonstrated some skills herself. She showed she knew when her Q7 was good against a AK hand out of position for a good sized pot, and managed to double through with a set holding 99 in earlier action. She quietly calls (she will later tell us she had AK).
If either one of these players raise me, I am likely dumping AQ, but Excited Guy's animation slowed down the smart lady with AK. She is smart enough to know, like I do, that she is likely up against another A and a PP. She, like I, probably put Excited Guy on the PP. He is just so damn excited!
Flop is QQ4. Dynamite. I check. I had already demonstrated concern over his excitedness, and fiegn worry again. He bets out 2000. AK lady folds.
How I play this is important. Up to this point I have not discussed table talk much.
First I ask how much the raise is? 2000. He looks confident in confirming.
I ask how many chips he has left. He counts them up for me. He has invested 2750, he has 3750 left. He has made a big commitment. He thinks he's good on this scary flop.
I go all in, and he calls soon after the dealer counts my 2250 raise. He didn't base his call on pot odds, he honestly thought I was beat.
He had 99. I now have 11000 chips and the big stack at the table.
My table talk did two things: I feigned concern, and got him to demonstrate his belief he was good. He should have known better. If a big pot develops, you bet big on the flop, and your opponent asks for a chip count, he is not likely folding, unless maybe he has a draw, and there is no draw on this board. Your opponent is buying time and gathering information to make the next move designed to maximize payoff in this situation.
This is standard table talk for me. I am extremely careful in a hand to speak in a manner designed to get information rather than give it. Never expose, for example, that you think you have two live or you think its a coin flip. You have told your opponent what you have without getting anything back. The chip count forces your opponent to react physically, and the body language you get should help you figure out where you stand. As we've seen before, I want to know how to get paid with this monster. The 3500 profit in the pot is nice to see, but some patience and information gathering turned that 3500 into 5750.
Woo hoo? Wait.
Soon after, with a few steals and small pots, a new player takes an empty seat to my right (see the title). He has an enormous stack, 35000 maybe? He is giggling like an idiot. In two hands over 10 minutes I watch him overplay Q7 on a 7KK flop to pay 10000 chips to AK. Then he calls this guy and two short stacks with the same hand soon after....Q7....against 44, AK (same AK guy as before) and QK. He giggles. He wants his chips back, he explains, calling 10000 all in. Amazingly, the only card which hits anyone is a 7, and he rakes in 20k more while busting 3 players.
I have position on the king of all donkeys. Patience and good play are all I need.
I needed a lot of patience. I simply manage my 11k over the next hour. I don't have hands which can call his routine raises, and he is up, down, all around, busting some and doubling others. I start to worry as his stack starts to wane a bit, wondering if they'll be anything left by the time I get an opportunity.
The second break comes and goes, and 300/600/75 level begins. There are 30 players left, and I have gone from 3x the average to just over. The patience is rewarded.
Donkey minraises early, and I wake up with K9 hearts. Not the strongest hand, but here is my strategy: If I like my hand and can afford the raise, I'll call and see a flop. He is willing to gamble. He has called every reraise. He has bet every flop. His raises and bets are usually just grabs at handfuls of chips. I need to manage my risks, see flops, and take advantage of position when I hit.
K9 suited is a hand I am fond of. People just don't play K high enough, they play A high too much, and I often don't need to worry about kickers too much. 9 high and K high flops are usually good with a limited field of preflop callers. I tend to play it sooted much more than off, and almost always with position.
This giggling idiot is also the most obvious player I have ever seen. On the rare occasions he has a hand, he bets with some thought and stops giggling. He raises any A or sooted paint-trash combinations preflop. He is in 45% of the hands, either obtaining steals or racing with a shortstack.
I have invested 1200 of 11000 with K9, and watch him bet 4000 into a K high flop. I do not hesistate to raise all in, he does not hesitate to call with A8. Another K on the turn seals the deal and my double up.
Some time,a level, and patience, later, Donkey opens with 3500 early and I see another favorite hand: QK, and with 22000 chips, calling is easy. The flop is again K high, and the rest is predictable: bet, raise all in, call, A-junk. I get another K to seal it, and my 45000 is now approaching his stack. I even told him I had him beat when he asked me why the raise, and goaded the call.
We have 19 players now, and 45000 is lots to take to a final table. But we ain't done with Donkey, folks.
Donkey and I are now trash talking a little bit. I am approaching his stack. He is conceding he has to respect me now, but he sure doesn't like it. Soon after this, I reraise another early position Donkey raise all in with 10-10, and a short stack (12k) comes in with me. My bet is so large, 85% of his stack, he has to fold, but he hates it, and my 10 -10 holds up against AK to give me the clear chip lead, close to 60k
He is still active, and there are some very short stacks left, because Donkey has been busting people and he is only paying off to me. He helps the cause by busting out a few more. and improving to 40,000 chips in the process. There are some disastrously bad moves by other players against Donkey, like gambling 44 all in, virtually offering themselves no better than a coin flip against a guaranteed call. We are soon down to 11, the money and final table bubble, and my luck catches huge.
Donkey is in the SB and I am in the BB. We are the two dominant stacks at a short table of desperation, and a lone middle position player limps in, with everyone else folding to Donkey. No one wants to be the bubble victim, so play is tight.
Stupid donkey. He wants to exploit this tight bubble play, and raises the 1500 limp in to 6000.
I wake up with QQ. I am immediately all in.
Oddly, the limper, with 10k tops, looks at me like he is thinking of calling. I stare at him like he's an idiot. "He's the donkey, I'm the player" I state with my glare. I don't even bother putting on my sunglasses. Limper gets the message. The raise was meant for Donkey, not for him. He dumps what he tells me later, with regret, was A4, because the river will turn out to be an A.
We saw a river because of Donkey's frustration with me beating the hell out of him. The rest of his chips push in and he turns over K8 offsuit.
Bye Bye Donkey Bye Bye. I am a hero and a devil to the rest of the field. Short stacks, some desperate, have made the money. But I have over 100,000 chips, 50k over the next rival to sit down at the final table.
I must save final table talk for later. It is late, and I am freerolling my $1,100.00 with a $100 investment in tomorrow's game.
The obvious message is be patient in crisis time, pick your targets and your spots. Use position to make smart calls when you want to see a flop, target the correct opponents, and use position to make the right plays with monsters when the right targets raise into you. You won't always find such a Donkey, but when you do, controlling your risk with callings and waiting for very strong hands to push with is the best way to go. So many others failed to manage their risk or thought that gambling with A high or 44 against the Donkey was a good play. Why raise into the Donkey with a marginal hand? If your a short stack he's calling or raising. Why offer Donkey two live or two over cards for 35-50% odds to beat you, when patience will get you managed risk to see a flop and real showdown hands will make you 70% or better to beat him?
Why was I the only one to figure out how to beat the Donkey?
