Wow! I had lost my link to my own blog. I feel glad to be back online. A lot has happened in 4 years, but I'll make this short. I've since joined a poker league which produces as many WSOP entries as possible, one main event prize and this year 10 smaller prizes among a league membership of about 60 people. Last year I was 3rd in points (we assign points for tourney finishers 1-15 over 10 tournaments) and 3rd in the final event and played 1 $1500 WSOP event, and we'll just say things went bad when I committed to KK which paid off a set early. I am heading back to Las Vegas at the end of the week. This year I was 1st in league points, and a heart-breaking 2nd in the final event. What a time to run card-dead! But my $3000 prize is going to two events, a $1500 Omaha hi-lo limit tournament and a $1500 NLHE event. I'll be playing some small-ball tournaments, and i might have a little bit to report every single day.

Tournament size and structure: live table dynamics

Okay, internet players, live players, whoever you are, put this in a time capsule and let aliens figure out what the hell I'm talking about, there is the two fundamental differences from the internet tournament and the live tournament: hand speed and the information derived from human interaction. When I play steadily in internet form, if I'm tuned into the table I can get "tells" based on tendencies and little things like delay time to clue me in on the "oh my god my hand is huge" pause/check vs the "oh my god that flop missed me, shot round the moon and landed in the lap of my opponent" pause/check. Very subtle to tell that online. So easy in a live setting. Screw Caro's book of tells (haven't read it, I'm sure it's excellent) all I can say is you still have to pay attention an get feel for all your opponents. You're not in the hand, so what, you are watching your opponents to see how they handle situations, because you'll be playing them.

What's the point? Live play takes twice as long per hand to play, and your job, whether in the hand or out of the hand is to pay attention to that much more information. I was to steal the blinds from the guy I KNOW will only push back with a real hand, or respects my raises, and not someone who is a big wild gambler, or a huge stack who can play any two playable cards in raised pots.

And we all want to be that huge stack who can afford the hands that amount to a raise of 1/5 of the stacks of your opponents, see a flop, and force the guy to commit his chips if you hit, right? How do be get to be that guy? So we can continue to play a game of a wide variety of hands, afford some mistakes, and force or opponents to commit all their chips?

The answer lies in the early play. The blinds are cheap, you need to play a wide variety of hands in reasonable situations, call the odd raise in the right measure, etc.

If you can play your whole game when the blinds are big enough that one raised pot commits chips of others, you have a huge advantage. It is BIGGER live for this very reason: live play takes 4x the concentration level per hand of play basically. more than twice the info played at 1/2 speed.

The standard $5=20 buy in in an online game at my site is 1500 starting chips with 5/10 blinds and 12 minute intervals. A table moving at a good clip is 60 hands/ minutes, slow table might be 40 hands/minute. I like to be tripled up in an hour, and need to be doubled up. starting chips or less is a misery, so thats 3000-4500 chips at 50/100.

The $200 buy in I do on the occasional weekend at the casino has a nearly identical structure, 7500 chips starting at 25/30 levels. it is 30 minutes a level. A very fast table can sometimes get through from BB to BB 10 handed in 15 minues, but 20 or a bit longer is typical if the dealer is slow or the players play slow (and not inordinately slow, just a reasonable time to make a big decision, as opposed to bang-bang-bang). But level 6, 150 / 300 with 25 ante, is after 150 minutes, not 60. Its tiring. because its tiring, the short stacks are getting frustrated. They are bitching and complaining. You can hear them mumble, and complain, and watch them show disgust at their cards. You can't see that on line, and its not as big a factor on line. There is much less money invested, there is no math required, and I've bought into another tourney already since I will be waiting for ever to make a single move.

Fatigue and impatience (happens to me too) means they will push with AQ in a terrible situation because its the best cards they've seen for an hour (Ive done this myself after 8 hours in $1000 buy in knowing full well the player I knew well had raised with a better hand). They will fail to manage the pot with JJ and get in a pot committed situation, and put the rest of the chips in post flop with AQ3 for a board AS A CALL. GO all in with AJ from the middle and hope there is not a better hand waiting out there.

Big stacks make bigger stacks reading and exploiting these situations. You rake them in and the people around you say "the rich get richer" and wonder how its done. If my read is perfect and can afford to lose, I should win in 70% of those sitations. Last wednesday I called an all-in with 66 from the BB. everyone limped, short stack said "screw it" pushed, I had been right beside him, heard him moaning about his stack size, read the situation well. If he had two overs, the series of limps told me higher cards were taken, so a "coin flip" with AK was seriously in my favour. Turns out he had 44, and lost, and crumbled about how this always happens to him. Sound familiar. Making the sick call with 44 makes a lot more chips than the desperate all-in that it only takes a deep stack with cajones to collapse. I wasn't that deep stacked, but the situation was very good for a lower pair. I can and will do this when I have the chips and short stack moves. A pair is huge in a short-handed game, like busting #5 from the final table. THOSE are the obligatory calls, not the 3:1 because the short stack is 5000 and the BB you;re in is 1500 but you have 84 off-suit. Junk vs junk really has no business in poker all in as seen on TV. PHil Gordon Nonsense. Last wednesday, along those lines for stacks and blinds, I have A2 suited, the BB, and 30K in chips, and he pushed from middle position. He had the best hand he would see in the next three, and I had the worst ace in the deck. I'm at best two random cards vs each other, and very likely up against A6 or better. Folded instantly.

So how do you get to be a big stack in the first 6 levels so you can do this? One is play all you playable cards in playable situations. J9 in the BB against a small raise (flopped the nut straight, checked, let him catch is Q on the turn, bet 2/3 pot, watch him re-raise me: he will eventually fold AQ), suited connectors, same situation, same price flopped trips and watched the a bet and a call (flush draw, he would show) and then check raised for a good stack.

Those hands were all just good grinds worth 1500 chips here and 2500 there. Yep, you do have to hit hands or be a great bluffer, but these are times of the tourney where people can afford to fold, so be very right and bluff very very smart if you want to bluff a lot in tournaments. It can work well in tournaments, but I exploit those guys who bet too much too, to make a big stack. If I know a guy will raise me just because of position, I will bet weak to entice it, let him throw too much in, and check raise him. I rarely just call, because the next card could be the lucky stupid card that made his 33 into 333, and I want the fold more: a bluffer can't call all in.

And gamble. yesterday , $220 game, I made good grinding in first 4 levels, turned 7500 into 14000. under the gun, I have 89 hearts. I limp in. Game's deep enough that we are still seeing limped in pots, so off I go. Book SAYS this is a bad hand in early position. BOOK doesn't say all that I said about how to play well in early positions, so read away. I have chips, prospect of cheap flop is good, this is a good starting hand. Limp in.

Man beside me I know well. Played with him many times. Older guy, likes his cash games too, and can often just be too aggressive. Today he is playing a more varied game, but he likes to talk and he's not a tough read.

He raises to 700 from the limped 300. There is no action behind at all, and 400 more is a perfect price for these cards. He has also played KK craftily earlier (JJ overestimated his hand by about a million, so we all saw it) and demeanour says he has a strong hand. Its just gut. read earlier blogs for good examples of putting people on KK and AA, and AK through their demeanours. Experience is the best guide. These are amateurs who learned online like you, remember. Not pros with ice in their veins. Human beings give of heat, vibration, electricity.

The flop is insanity. J 7 5. The J and 7 are hearts. ANY 10, 6, or heart make me a huge hand. A flush draw and a gut shot are enough to go nuts over. This is the double belly buster kind. Flop looks like crap! You can't see the straight draw even though 89 is a legitimate poker hand. You might see the flush draw.

It doesn't matter what my opponent sees, he has a big hand. I slow down to try and hit this, he will hammer the pot with his chips if he clues into a draw. there is only 2059 in the pot, he has 5000+ behind. If I check, it because I am going to lay down a 15 out hand that might even be able to pair and beat AQ (6 more outs for 21. That's 2/5 of the deck and I get to see 2, not 1 card to make it)

As you know who have read before this lenghty deliberation I have discussed is about 5 seconds of thinking in reality. Sorry, 8 seconds. 3 were spent confirming I had both ends of the straight draw.

The answer was simple. Take his move away. He's 60% to call. My hand is 50% to beat JJJ here (well, 45%, but he doesn't have JJ! NOBODY raises JJ that small! See my many blogs discussing early limp and minraise traps with monsters to attract action). Gut said a big hand, but a hand in need of a great deal of protection. He wants me to hit a flop and be bigger.

He instacalls and flips KK, confirming my gut. Just a vibe man. Be there and feel it. If you never get that vibe you will be forever pushing your short stack with 44 or 77 and wondering how he called with 66 or QK, as the case may be (both in the same tournament wednesday, btw) Sisyphus and the rock. Poker hell is loving the game and never learing how to take it to the next level, never better than final 20, just making the money, etc.

two tiny black cards. I didn't hit. But I played to win, and winning his 6000 chips means that bigger stack in relation to the blinds, that much time and hands to play before the game resorts to all-ins and calls preflop only, and the chips to be able to put a guy on a small pair and call QJ thinking its good.

Just a quick comment to understand HOW 66 was a good call and why QJ may or may NOT be a good call. When there are limpers and other interested players (clearly folding hands in the margins) coming in or barely folding, they are holding suited A-rag, Q10, KJ, K10 A9, A10, sometimes AJ, especially as the price goes up. QJ not a good call if 3 people limped in and a 4th considered it. your outs got folded. CONVERSELY my 66 is that much better in that pot with interest, because it doesn't need to hit, my opponent likely does pushing his A9 to AK, QK, JK, QJ, etc. 44 is not my worry. A made pair much better than two semi-live overcards. I can call QJ because there was NO action except the late raiser, not even a whisper of hope, so paint is good to catch with all that junk in the muck. Next time you see 6 limpers in the pot, watch the flop be 8 high and then think of me.

Bedtime! until Next Time! I will try more than 6 months between blogs, I promise....to try....

Aggressive play; big laydowns; how others' bad play can hurt you

Hey again.

I'm currently sulking over being victimized by someone else's terrible play, so while I am analysing it, we might as well talk about good play too.

Let's go back to my last final table.

I had discussed my triple-up house in the last blog. As usual, big chipstacks become short ones as the blinds get bigger, and I am patient but card dead as we dead into the final 20. I had lost short stack race when K10 went all in and I had JJ in the big blind, which pretty much defined my middle tourney, along with two chopped pots. I am carefully managing my 7000 chips, having left the table of death still alive. The resulting big stacks seem to have all found themselves on the other remaining table: no one at my table has more than 10,000 in chips.

And they are tight, these players. All trying to wait for that perfect hand. An Asian lady whom I had played with earlier is in seat 10 to my seat one. She is an early aggressor: all in bets, no callers. She's trying to exploit the tightness of the rest of the table.

She's betting in to me, and she's just what I'm looking for. The first time she raises into my blind, I have AK, and instacall and race her A9. The flop is A A 5, which is fine, until the turn is another 5, and the river junk, and we split (again).

Because I have shown AK, I exploit this. I go all in with Q10 a few hands later. No takers. I get AK and do it again. No takers. I start harping at these tight players.

But I will get no takers. Except my lady.

Its come full circle now, all folding to her SB. She raises. I have A6. I push all in. She is committed and calls with K10. I win my race and finally my double up, and hold about 20k.

It is a brutal brutal table, with short stacks having to gamble. Eventually, I bring my 19k to the final table. Average would be about 30k.

one player to my immediate left was at the table of death with me. I had raised early with AJ at that table and he had gone over the top on me. I folded. I watched him play: any good showdown hand usually got this response, most often a wired pair. He had got a huge triple up after he pushed all in on a short stack with 99, and the BB instacalled with AA: he hit the 9.

So, blinds 1000/2000, early in the final table, I am in early position with QK clubs, and raise to 6000. This fellow shoves his now big stack over top of me.

And the next guy agonizes over his hand. and folds
The next guy is also in agony! and folds....

So, here I am with QK, 1/3 of my stack in the pot. Those two other players' agony told me two things: they probably folded my outs, and my all-in opponent has a pair.

I have to lay this down. Pot odds be damned. We only pay 8 so, busted is busted.

He will show his AA.

My fortune is to see AA myself the very next hand. And I just quietly limp it in. Only the SB and BB are in the pot: not my favorite scenario with the limp-trap, but it pays off. The flop is 10-high trash, and the BB goes all in. I call. He had caught a pair of threes, and pays me off. He is chip and a chair (miraculously, he will be a big stack when I bust out, but I'm not telling his story).

So now I have 35k in chips, and when another short stack goes in for 16k, I see 10 10. He's short enough he could be raising with anything. After looking to my left to see three players left, all with decent chips, I only have two viable moves here: fold or all in.

I am not in love with the price: if I'm beat I'm back to ground zero again. But I shove.

The BB will agonize, but fold (he had 99, and would have hit trips on the turn, we will learn) but 10 10 is in a fair race with AQ and holds up.

I will be chip leader until Chip-and-a-chair, who previously got survival chips with AA in the BB (2000 blind was all he had), will race his 66 against my AK and hold up. I didn't catch cards again, and will bust out in 5 after my stack dwindles due to short handedness, big blinds, and no cards, pushing my last 20k up against JJ in the BB with A10.

5th or now, what I liked about that tournament is that I can't think of a bad play I made.

So, on to this Saturday's $150+15, 5000 chip debacle. We are an hour in, the third level has just started, 75/150, and I have been patiently waiting for an opportunity, winning a few small pots just to pay for seeing few failed flops. I have 4075 in chips. To my right is a player who has recently feasted in a tilting player who over-committed QQ out of position post flop and ran smack into KK: he has 9000 chips. Lets call him Ted. To his right is a player whom I know previously but has just come to the table: he has about 8000 chips. We will call him Bill.

Ted is first to act and limps in. I have AA and bump it up to 575. Everyone folds to the Button, who calls, to Bill, who calls, and Ted, who also calls.

Ted had previously shown down AJ limped in in a similar position, so I am not surprised by the call. Bill is a pot odds player. The button call will not factor into the play, other than the preflop money he adds: we have 2375 in the pot.

The flop is 7 5 3 two diamonds. Nice flop.

Ohh, and here comes action: Bill appears to like the fop. Bill bets 1000.

Ted hesitates slightly, then just makes the call.

Okay, PM, where we at here? Did Bill just hit trips? No, something in his demeanor said no, and he didn't seem to like the call...and Ted definitely has a draw.

The shame for me here is, Bill's shitty bet gave Ted easy pot odds, and now I have only 3500 to bet 2500 over a 5375 pot. And Bill might have hit it, but I sure ain't folding AA. In I go (just a note: in reality, my mind is figuring this out a lot faster than my recreation would appear).

Okay, so Bill started out with a stupid bet, and then, when is comes back to him does something even stupider. HE JUST MAKES THE CALL. EVEN WORSE. HE MISTAKENLY PUTS IN 1000 LESS THAN HE'S SUPPOSED TO, AND I HAVE TO REMIND HIM, OFFERING UP A MASSIVE TELL OF UNCERTAINTY.

WHAT A MORON. TED'S GOT THE FLUSH DRAW DUMBASS!

Ted just makes a smooth call, putting about 13k in the pot in total.

I make a comment, "I sure hope you have each other's outs," because the last thing I want is two opponents to have live cards.

The turn is a J of hearts. And STUPID BILL checks. Ted, who appears to know how to play poker, and goes all in.

Bill folds now, and I am semi-relieved to see (no surprise) AJ diamonds. His pair is no good. I am 85% to a river.

the 5 of diamonds.

Thanks a load BILL.

In all the earlier examples, what did the player do? Protect his hand and his stack. All In.

BILL's post flop bet was bad enough: you have 10 10 on a 7 high board out of position, and you bet 1000 into 2375? A check I can see, and a bet of 1750 I can see, but 1000? Guaranteed to keep a draw in.

And, Bill, Stupido, When I went all in that was your opportunity TO PUT TED ON THAT DRAW AND PROTECT YOUR HAND!!!!!!!! Two choices, all in or fold. Flat call? outrageously stupid.

Ted committed a huge portion of his stack to that draw, but when you are 35% (or even money) to win 13000 on your 4000 investment, the IMPLIED ODDS are huge. (reminder: implied odds are what keep you in when the odds may be mediocre but the potential payoff at the end is enormous)

If Bill puts the 4000 he has over me on the flop, Ted's got to commit all but 1000 chips to a flush draw and two overcards (one of which is very dead) 6500 chip raise and my investment only 1575? Pretty early in the tournament for that kind of gamble.

Thanks Bill. Way to take out one player while crippling yourself.

The moral to this story: if you think you have the best on the flop, or pre-flop, and you're up against a short stack's all in, you'd better do two things: 1) Make damn sure you're better than another big stack; 2) if you are sure, protect it unless you flopped a house or straight flush or other ridiculous monster (see last blog).

Happy hunting! (Ima gonna shoot me up some Bill....)

Short blog to start long year: playing the players and the table

Just back from my first final table of the year, a good restart to a bad 6 months of bad play, bad beats, bubble bitchings, etc. Longest dry streak ever.

Its late, so you get a taste. Here's my early triple up hand, but let's start quick with something that I put a lot of emphasis in my live game but don't talk to much about: table position.

For any casino newbies, I'll explain briefly the physical layout of a casino table. Take the pictures of my table and make it a little longer and a lot less nice. In the middle of one long side is a slight indent so the dealer can reach the felt better. The betting line is similarly proportioned to the size of the wood racetrack on mine. Seat one is to the left of the the dealer, and so forth.

Seat one and seat ten have a nice view of most of the players and no view of the players hidden by the dealer: for seat one, we are blind to seats 9 and 10, and can't see their stacks and often have to be reminded it's our turn to act. I hate seat one and seat ten for that reason.

I like seats 2 and three, and 8 and 9, because being on the edge, I have an angled view of most or all faces. It's a greater distance to the centre of the table where the flop is, but this is why I play wearing prescription sunglasses. (I find that simple polarization is the perfect tint for poker, btw) They also have a little more elbow room and room for chips. 2 and 9 are probably the best.

Today I start in seat 5 which is just across from the dealer. From seats 4 through 7, we can't see faces well in the adjacent seats. The flop is right in front of us, but we have to turn our head to see players, making it obvious where we are looking.

Here's how I used seat 5 and a huge flop to bust one player and cripple another.

I am 2nd to act. I have 3500 chips. We are second level 25-50. I have 22 and limp in. There are several callers and no raisers. The table has played a steady, predictable game playing predictable cards predictably.

The flop is JJ2 rainbow. Not only a dream flop, I am certain based on both the nature of the players and the frequency of J high flops so far someone has a J.

Check check from the blinds, 300 or so in the pot, I bet for value, 225. Seat 7 calls and seat 1 also flat calls.

Lets talk about seat 7 and seat 1 and their players.

Seat 7 is an older player. I can't see him and he can't see me. He has been steady, has grinded well and has 2000 more than me. Unflappable guy, steady post flop player who I am not particularly familiar with, but I can easily suspect the kind of hand he would limp in.

Seat 1 is Brian. Brian is a great older guy, loves the game, loves to trap, loves to gab. He is very chatty and high strung though he rarely chats up during a hand he's in. He has resorted to sunglasses and a baseball cap recently because he is aware he has tells due to his high strung nature. He also is still trying to make things happen and only has about 1700 in chips. Think of Uncle Fester without the high voice, you got Brian.

By the way both of these players flat called, I don't just suspect, I know they both have a J in their hand. I STRONGLY suspect it is the kind of mixed-paint hands people limp in with, because they are just not J7 players. Brian likes to trap, and I get a buzz off of him which is a clear tell.

I had bet out because I knew I'd get action. I really liked the action I got, because I know I'll get plenty more. I knew they were slow playing a J because there is no draw on that board, and both made a very deliberate move to flat call which is inconsistent with a wired pair lower than JJ. Their question to themselves, was call or raise, not fold, call or raise.

Seat 7 can't see me to figure why I bet out. Brian, being short, has hit his dream flop and doesn't want his prey to get away. He is tense like a cat ready to strike, which will also work to my advantage.

Turn is 5 of clubs. NO DRAW. NO PAINT. I KNOW I STILL HAVE IT GOOD AND I KNOW THEY WILL PAY ANY BET.

So I make a value bet which looks like a probe: 525. Seat 7 flat calls, and now Brian can't stand it. He throws his 900 over the top all in. I am now in a position to reraise all in, and I don't hesitate: I know seat 7 isn't folding.

But I seal the deal with a comment, as Seat 7 considers his situation. "ARE THE 5 JACKS IN THIS DECK?" I ask.

Now seat 7 has been me play connectors and small cards well in small pots I have shown down 89 off to win a hand with middle pair, for example. I have totally misrepresented to him a hand I actually never play: 10 J.

I get the call, and my reads prove perfect: Seat 7 has QJ, Brian has KJ, and I have 6 pieces of paint (possibly less, there were other limpers) and one card, or 12%. to dodge on the river. Its a 4. I rake. Instant chip leader.

I took advantage of the fact that seat 7 couldn't see me and simply made quiet bets and let him hang himself, building up a big pot so, if necessary, I can make it all about my chips by the river. Having hit the perfect turn, and Brian doing the reraising for me, all it took was that little nudge to push seat 7 over the edge too.

All you get. Night all...0

More short stack adventures: post flop play

What a shame my recent blogs are all about short stack play. After winning over $10,000 in July, I have suffered my longest no-cash streak ever. The lone exception was a $1200 payout early september which paid for my season's pass for skiing. Finishing 8th in minor online tournaments does not count, nor does the 8th in a casino wednesday tournament for $10 over the buy in. My last final table of any significance saw me with AA two hands in a row, UTG and then the BB, limped in for a trap and river raise to cause the big stack to fold, and the entire profit in that hand lost when the short stack UTG limped in, three limpers followed, and I raise to put her all in and watched A10 offsuit fourflush the river. Then my JJ will fall to AA a few hands later.

More recently JJ fell to K9 and KK fell to 62.

Tonight, an hour of poker equalled 4 playable starting hands, one small pot, and 2150 in chips, blinds of 50/100, and I am in the BB.

My reads have been excellent: I have had nothing to do at the table BUT observe other players. It is a pretty raw and young table. The only older gentleman is immediately to my left, who showed down 5 3 for 2 pair in a cheap pot from the button early. Further observation of the player is that he is a pot odds player who likes to see a lot of flops, calls to many raises, but can outplay post flop when he reads weakness. I read weakness in the same situations too, like from a dapper young black man across the table who also has some post flop skills but folds like a house of cards to good bets with confidence behind them...but he is not part of this story.

Two seats further left is a thirty-something Chinese gentleman who has seen a lot of pots, and shown down nothing but wired pairs. In his first hand, a bet and three calls of 75 causes him to bet 600. I immediately put him a wired pair. He gets one caller, a very green young man who had opened the pot for 75 (blinds 25/25), and the kids beside me folds and so do I, holding a small suited ace. Been around the block to play a dry ace when a small raise flat calls anything that is so obviously a wired pair.

I do not disagree with the 600 raise here, necessarily, it is common when the blinds are cheap to protect these hands from pot-odds players. I read an interesting article contrasting the internet tourney player from the live tourney player, and I have to agree. Internet tourney players even at the $5 MTT level still play like tournament players: without a rebuy option, playing "pot odds" on raises with 87 and 10J will whittle your stack a lot more quickly and readily than folding them after trying to play then cheap. The live casino weekly tourney is full of live cash players. This raiser doesn't want 5 callers. He doesn't want a small ace in there. He doesn't want a small pair in there. That's fine, but I would rather lose a small pot here than win a small pot preflop in a manner that telegraphs the strength of my hand. Fear causes this raise, not confidence. It will come to be shown that all the aces were dead anyway, but post-flop, his raise will bear itself out. This rookie was exactly the right caller.

The flop is J J 10, and the rookie is first to act, and his hands are shaking. He is overwhelmed. He is nervous. He is in trouble and the table knows it. and he bets 1000, leaving him with only 800 chips. Now he is in trouble and is pot committed.

That was not the nervousness of a guy who flopped monstrous, I know it and our raiser knows it. He puts all his chips in quickly. The rookie looks at his chipstack, hates himself, but has to make the call, and his A10 will fall to QQ.

I know an awful lot about the raiser holding QQ already. Lets just call him PP, since he will never show down a non-pair. He will protect a big pair, he knows when his QQ is good on a JJ flop. Makes good decisions. Telegraphs big hands.

On another hand, he will make a more modest raise, get several callers, and ultimately show down 88 after the flop hit A Q 10 two clubs and got no action. On yet another, he will be last to call an all in for 575 (of 4), check to a flop of 775, and bet to protect 33 with a 2 on the turn to show the best hand . The all in had A8 and the kid beside me was the first caller, obviously with AK as we later discussed. He was right that he should have gone all in for a heads up showdown. Another rookie mistake. I learned early at the casino to NEVER flat call an affordable all in when you have a big showdown hand. We discussed these protective bets in a very recent blog.

In yet another hand, PP, in an attempt to "mix it up", still shows that same deliberation as before, but only bets 150 in late position with several 50 chip limpers. The UTG limper, the Dapper Dan I had mentioned before, limp raises to 400, and all folds to PP. We all know by now that Dapper Dan can't stand the heat. PP figures this out too, after some deliberation, and puts enough in the pot to force DD all in. DD will predictably fold.

I am sure PP had a big hand. Probably NOT a pair. It was obvious DD was playing a stunt. If PP had a PP of magnitude, he would have flat called and let DD hang himself. DD is smart enough to make a probe bet on the flop, and smart enough to fold. PP doesn't have the acting skills to show weakness and trap, so he just took it down.

More information on PP.

At the end of the table is another rookie. He knows enough to call raise when he puts in a 500 chip into 100 bets, but he is constantly looking like a deer in the headlights when it is his turn to act. He is 23 tops, doesn't look very bright, looks over-tired and overwhelmed. He has lost some chips along the way. He looks like a blond Beaver Cleaver so we will call him Sleepy Beav, or SB.

When rookie number one busted out I gave him some quick advice: his post flop bet was too big to represent the J. I will have some advise for SB by the end of this hand...

Now back to the hand. 2150 in chips, BB, blinds 50/100

my pot-odds limper on my right is UTG, and limps in,

PP is next to act, and I get the same deliberation, but again he is trying to mix it up, so he opens for 350. He knows the table well enough to know he'll get action, but, in spite of his "mix up" attempts, he even telegraphs them. I immediately get the sense he is holding a big pair. I am under the impression now he would protect a big ace. Gut is everything in this game.

Sleepy Beav, still looking lost and sleepy, and prone to pot odds calls (which is why he has less than 200 chips), makes the call. I don't recall if there was a third caller (Dapper Dan is not in this part of the story, in other words), but I see a price of 350 and then my cards of 55. No way I'm going for broke here, I just put PP on a PP! BUT I have excellent IMPLIED ODDS to see a price that I KNOW wont be re-raised. The gentleman to the left who limped in never put in the vibe of a big hand trapper, and I am confident he simply has playable cards and wants to see a flop. Me too.

IMPLIED ODDS

I rarely talk about implied odds. The "book" describes them as the prospect that your call will lead to you winning a big pot if you hit a big flop. I think I just dumbed it down to a definition even I can understand. These lessons have all been about "good" odds to double or triple up in gambling situations. And I have used these blogs not just for you but for me to reanalyze my short stack card selection and inject more gamble in my game for when I need it. In other words, If I am going to invest my tournament in a high risk situation, the ultimate reward better make the risk worthwhile.

I tend not to use the term, because I don't want you to think in terms of "pot odds" and "implied odds", I want you to actually grind out the real odds. Think through the WHOLE HAND, not just the apparent strength of your hand [OMG! AK! OMG! I just lost to 33! OMG! C(ry)OL] (Sorry, not talking internet poker here. I will use complete sentences), or to justify a "crying call", like I did playing pot limit omaha with the boys last friday, flop a set of Aces (AA in my hole cards) on a A 10 4 flop, value but the flop, see a Q on the turn, knowing the Q made my opponent a straight, then check calling $5 more knowing I'm bad from a pot that was $8 before the turn. If you KNOW you're bad, you've done your job. You don't need to pay to prove it. Satisfy yourself your read was good and move on. Similarly, playing shorthanded in a short stacked home game with big blinds and raising A8 to 800 from 100/200, it is not a good play to call off the raise to 1250 all in when you KNOW you are crushed preflop (Magus had AQ)

GOOD GAMBLES REQUIRE EXCELLENT PREFLOP READS. Unsure, don't gamble.

Here's my gamble. Here's my mistake.

The flop is 2 4 8 two clubs, and I am first to act. If you read the last few blogs in detail, you may form an opinion here, assuming that PP is in fact "mixing it up", and maybe this time he doesn't have a wired pair. If the three callers share each others high card outs, this is a GREAT FLOP for 55. The raise was enough to cause All 8 holding hands BUT 88 to fold, and I make a quick choice to risk it. I go all in. Not being greedy, just announcing "my flop, pay it all to draw out".

BUT I IMMEDIATELY REALIZE that I had read PP with a big PP. I was calling to hit a 5 on the flop, but the dry situation I was in forced my decision to risk that the read was wrong.

Sure enough, when the UTG limp/caller folds, PP is now deliberating. He is deliberating because Sleepy Beav is still in the pot. He has a pair. Its big. Its the right flop. There is something greedy about this deliberation, trying to pull Sleepy Beav in with him. In the end he simply calls the 1800, which is more than Sleepy Beav has.

Now here is where it gets odd, and here is my lesson for Sleepy Beav. He is in the tank. He is disoriented. He is confused. He doesn't know where he stands. The tank is at least 90 seconds, before he announces call.

I announce that I know I'm beat, and that PP has a big pair, and that SB has a big draw. But I'm only 1/2 right.

PP has QQ

SB has KK.

Pardon me, the flop is 8 high, there is 4900 in the pot, you have 1600 left, and you have SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT HOLDING KK?

I am not impressed by the slowroll. No shortstack folds KK in that situation. Nobody. If someone cracked my KK, they can have my chips. If PP had AA, he can have my chips.

My initial impression is this slowroll was rude and disrespectful. I say so.

The lesson is in poker manners. In spite of some comments I have made about the VALUE of riding someone you can ride towards tilt, I do not play live poker the way some sociopaths consider acceptable in internet play. Internet play is incredibly rude. The casino is full of "good luck all in" and "good game", and I am all about that. My live poker reputation is that when I am on I will kick your ass, and we will behave like gentlemen along the way. Unless I hit a situation where my wit can be used to advantage, and I tend to be subtle and clever instead of rude.

The slowroll of an all in player with a huge hand that any non-moron would instantly call is very very very uncool. There is no need to make a man (or woman) sweat his fate if his fate is known to you.

In retrospect, his intentions were not disrespectful. He was a moron. He was so overwhelmed by the casino experience he had no sense of the pot size, his stack size, the players in the pot, and he may have even forgot he's holding KK. Told that he was slowrolling, if he has the capacity to learn, perhaps he will.

KK post flop, no A on board, a call 3.5 times bigger stack? Nothing to think about. If we DID deconstruct this hand, ANY REASONABLE PLAYER should have this figured out on that flop:

The first ALL IN was WEAK. No way I try to take down the pot with a pot size
bet with a set.

PP has shown down SO MANY pairs he can only have a big PP or a big draw consistent
with his predictable image, like AK or AQ clubs.

The odds of ONE OF US hitting a set with an underpair on the flop is 11%. The
odds of us BOTH is 11% squared: 1.21% Even if I am such a good player that I KNOW
one of my opponents has a big pair and KNOW a big bet will be called with me
holding a set, (a very good play, and I have done this), this read here is
defying the probability curve. I COULD be THAT BRILLIANT, but with Sleepy holding
KK and PP calling already the MOST LIKELY READ is that ONE HAS AN OVERPAIR and the
OTHER HAS SOMETHING WORTH LESS THAN AN OVER PAIR. Because its only 11% that this
wrong. Add the statistical odds that AA is in this pot. Significantly less than
1%.

If A x clubs made a call here, it is 42-44% to beat me, less if I hold a club.
But WHO THE HELL FOLDS 56-58% the favorite with 1600 to add to 4900? NO ONE. If
the limp caller, folded an ace (pretty likely) my odds got better.


In other words, I am SO BRILLIANT a player that I can read a set here ABSOLUTELY, then fine, lay down KK, but when my KK is 89% TO BE GOOD HERE AND THERE IS 4500 in the pot, I am going to all in and pray I am wrong and if right I spike a K!

And one thing Sleepy Beav knows, is that he's not brilliant.

My move was not brilliant either. I knew I was wrong the second my chips went in. I didn't put Sleepy Beav on a big PP (way to sleepy), but I was DEAD ON on PP's hand, and simply forgot, or chose to forget.

There is no doubt at all that this game requires awesome skills. It also requires cards. Flop that set, and yes, I am brilliant enough to make sure I get paid. I already wrote that blog. From the BB, I weak raised with AA, got 4 callers, flopped the A for the set, check called my way through a hand with a smaller set and a flush draw for a huge pot, and no one had a clue I had a thing.

My cards are coming.

Good luck catching yours!

Even More short-stack gambling: pot odds for adults

Anyone who read any of my early blogs might have read the last few and wondered why I spoke so lovingly of pot odds. Didn't I once describe pot-odds analysis as justifying your first mistake with another?

Aha! But I spoke of last blog's 3x AK raiser as having made mistakes because of the odds she was offering, a FAR MORE important issue than the Phil Gordonian pot odds calls which occur when the big stack bully raises to 10,000 with K9 with blinds of 1500/3000, and the stack with 15,000 protects his sb by going all in. Yes, its only 5,000 more into A 28,000 chip pot. But 10,000 of those chips are what you put in bad! Big Stack Bullies have to play smart power poker. Tight players with medium stacks will give up blinds to raises of 3-3.5 x the blinds when you can open the pot from a later position. Anyone looking to blind steal should seriously consider 5th, 6th and 7th position steals rather than cut off and button steals. They are far less obvious as steals, cost the same, and have similar effect. Keep in mind that late position players still have people to act behind them. They are far more likely to flat call than reraise, and if you were attacking the blinds of the right kinds of players, they will still fold rather than play, even with odds, out of position in a raised, medium sized pot with a raiser and a caller. Big stacks will easily make the pot odds call, and, as I have discussed in the last two blogs, a well schooled short stack may correctly read his situation correctly: the raiser has the weakest hand, the caller needs a flop, both have paint or painted ace, and my 78 hearts may very well be 38% here. If he has enough chips to induce a fold, he goes all in and may very well steal the whole pot: an effective double up at minimal risk (given the weakness shown by the raiser and caller) or triple up gamble if the raiser and caller both have high Aces and one is big enough to call.

VERY IMPORTANT to have those reads locked down to make these moves. I will remind of the formula:

- Pay attention to every player on every hand as the play unfolds towards you:
- Make particular note of every player seriously considering a play: these
marginal hands are often outs for larger raising hands:
- The manner in which a raiser raises (automatic, deliberate, calculated,
uncertain) should be first clues to what he holds:
- The manner in which the raiser reacts to anyone considering a play are next clues:
- Any callers must be carefully scutinized for possible traps or genuine "need to
see the flop" weakness:
- Ask any players in the pot for a chip count BEFORE LOOKING AT YOUR CARDS so you
can read them, and they can't read you:
- NEVER make an automove of your chips all in (see point three) when you see an AK
or a 88 or other "OMG finally a hand" hands. Use this opportunity to probe
further (like in point 4). Here's a trick: PRETEND to look at your cards, then
probe for reaction by contemplating the call or the pot or your stack size.

Any short stack needs to understand that opportunities include opportunities to steal raised pots. If you can stare down a cut -off raise that was slow, deliberate, and careful by a cautious player and than look down at A3 spades and autopush, knowing he both has you beat and that he will fold, you are fearless. You will succeed.

FEARLESS

I'm short stacked, I have 6x the blinds, the chip leader has be covered 10 to 1, I am gone. Why be scared? You have already lost. You can only move up or go home.

THIS IS WHY POT ODDS IS A CRUCIAL FACTOR

Well calculated gambles may be the only solution for the short stack. A6 is NEVER a hand for a well calculated gamble! THIS IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT: LIVE CARDS. If A6 is a bad gamble, why raise with it? The 10 6 you had the hand prior, in better position, HAD BETTER ODDS AGAINST A CALLER and IS JUST AS GOOD TO STEAL WITH.

The short stack HAS TO GAMBLE SMART.

Here is an amazing short stack recovery story. I probably told it before, but it is worth retelling. With 30 people left, blinds are 500-1000 and I am UTG and holding 3000 chips.

I GO ALL IN BLIND. Why? Because I need the blinds to be in the pot. My stack can't wait to be in the BB, when I am pot committed anyway, but 1000 of the chips belong to me, not somewhat else. I have no choice but to play these cards. They happen to be 83. I get protection from AK, and I catch but he does not.

7500 CHIPS

Now the table knows I am crazy, so the table folds to the blinds. SB makes a flat call. I have 83. I check. The flop is trash, but contains a 8 or 3 (I don't remember). The SB bets about 2500. I can go all in for 4000 more, and do so. He was bluffing. He folds.

I will fold the SB next hand

11000 chips

I am now on the button. A player in early position who has made strange plays in strange positions makes a small raise. A young woman who I know will only play good hands makes a raise on him (she also knows hes a weak raiser). It then folds to me. I have AQ. I push all in. the SB is a very short stack: he has odds to more than quadruple: he's an instacall (and good for him). Surprisingly, the original raiser with crap makes the call, and we have 4 people all in. In order of betting: Q 10; 10 10; A Q (me); K9. K9 will catch his nine, but I will catch my Q on the river. The original raiser earns a small side pot between him and 10 10. The pot will take about 5 minutes to sort out, but ultimately the dealer ships me

39,000 chips

TWO HANDS LATER, the same raiser from the last hand goes all in with his last 6000 chips. He will get protection from a big stack: 22,000. All folds to me and I have AK. There is some, but little, hesitation. ALL IN. The original raiser is hating himself at the moment, but jeez, he has 22,000 into a pot which has gone through the roof 70,000 chips in the pot and 17,000 to call. Phil Gordon aside, chips in bad and all, how can anyone not protect that initial bad investment? And pray I have JJ and his AQ is good? It isn't. I catch my K to settle all.

86,000 CHIPS. 7 HANDS.

Every gamble was the right move, right odds, every gamble was still a gamble.

FEARLESS = CHIP LEADER.

Pot odds are used to determine whether a gamble is a good risk. Period. Those odds need to be accurately calculated BEFORE YOU PUT IN YOUR FIRST CHIP. It NEVER JUSTIFIES a bad initial move.

YOU'RE SHORT STACKED

YOU HAVE ONE MOVE

YOU HAVE TO MAKE IT COUNT.

So, I have criticized the AQ for over protecting a short stack call. I have criticized AK for making a greedy, underwhelming raise which invited a call and really invited more chips to enter the pot: preflop or post flop, it doesn't matter.

Shit, if I got a limper or two from short stacks and I have AK, I want them to make a call for ALL their chips. Have them put their tournament on the line. Why not bet accordingly? 3x the blinds almost guarantees the action you didn't want, and the short stack is so committed by calling, he might as well shove before the flop. I wll often, even to open the pot, holding a big stack an a big slick, make a preflop bet that equals the biggest short stack I want to play with. It is too much for another big stack to call with without a huge hand. It is designed for ONE CALLER ONLY. I AM CONTENT WITH THE STEAL. My hand is protected.

AQ's error? Not so much as the quality of his hand, as the possibility, raising an all in so early in position, that the weakness of his AQ as a showdown hand might be exposed and lead to the wrong action. Sometimes AQ can and should be a flat-calling hand: fact of the matter is, that flat call looks stronger than the big protection bet, because it shows some FEARLESSNESS. And I might flat call AK there too and manage my odds better by looking at a flop, rather than push all in.

One last recent example. I have AK in early position (blinds 100-200) and a modest stack of 4500. Dying for a double up. I raise to 800. The person to my left raises me to 1800. The table folds, and I go all-in. He makes a crying call with QQ, and says he made a mistake. He should have managed the pot. He let the pot get out of hand. I hit my A on the flop. He flat calls with QQ, he sees that A, I make 1000 chips not 4800. Damn right he made a mistake. I was a short stack: he was offering me a double up opportunity by raising. Fact of the matter is, QQ is still a pretty strong hand in a three way or 4 way RAISED pot, given that callers will have duplicates of Aces and Kings and the flop is likely dead.

Sounds like I am move onto another lesson....later.

More short stack lightning

Let's face it. Getting short stacked really sucks. You can't afford to see flops or play post flop. Every raise has to be a go hand and everyone knows it: you either get no action or the wrong kind of action. The reality is, unless you see KK or AA in the BB, you will have to gamble in the rights spots and pray.

I last talked about small pairs, usually with good position.

Today I had the "pleasure" of watching my stack disappear to fruitless flops over the first hour, and down from 2500 to 1500 chips and 50-100 blinds. Not many options, but I had to play. I had to play play able cards in acceptable cicumstances.

My first double up:

I have 1625 in chips. I am first to act, I have K9 diamonds. I LOVE his hand. I am in love with a mean mistreata. Its a sickness. I usually follow the doctor's advice and fold this marginal hand, except in deep position and real cheap. But its playable, and I want to play it.

The table is tight. Only one knockout in an hour. Players are all playing conservatively. Predictably. Some are beginning to exploit the tightness of the table and steal small pots, but I don't have a stack capable of setting an uncallable price, and a bad bluff will knock me out. I need to get in a fair race for all the chips.

There are two callers ahead of my initial limp in, then a short stack takes a quick glance at his cards and moves all in.

This "instant all-in" is easy to read. It was thoughtless. It announced his hand loudly. "I have a big hand, but I can't trap with it and I don't want a call". Small pairs are very often in this category. I once made a sick but affordable call against an all-in short stack with QJ and beat out 66 late in a tourney, after appropriate deliberation and probes for information. AK and AQ and AJ are very often in this category. Sometimes 10 10 and JJ are too, but just as often, they are hands which lead to some deliberation. small pairs are semi-bluff steals/gambles. the higher pairs have trapping capabilities in post flop play and tend to lead to at least a pause before action.

The limps are a tell too. QJ, 10J, KJ, A10, are all limper hands. None are calling hands at THIS table. Only one has me dominated, and I am basically next to act (after the blinds) and I know these are limp hands calling in the middle. I have been observant and it is clear these people need to see a cheap flop and aren't trapping.

QK and the like are not limpers. Most players will raise QK out of middle position to show some strength, help close the hand to gain position, and to get more information on the limpers.

The only hands which contain a 9 among these limpers would be A9 (pretty tough to call here with A9 to an all in raise, especially this table) and connectors, and K9 dominates these hands. The tightness of the table, and the shortness of every stack resulting from it, makes it pretty pricy to play a 910 from the middle position. These players play correctly.

In other words, in this situation, K9 is likely got two live cards, an even race against the likely low pair, and almost even against the likely A high hand. A9 can also make this all in move, but not instant automove like this. The high ace could be in real trouble if the kicker's outs were among the limp ins.

There is an excellent risk that my hand has run into AK, but we are talking about gambling, not playing sure things here.

I am correct that I am up against a fair or good gamble, and commit the rest of my chips. I am racing AQ.

Clearly my cards are live. I get two 9's on the flop: a K on the river. AQ completely whiffed.

THE VERY NEXT HAND, I am in the BB. There are three limpers ahead of me. the SB is also a short stack. He is, just like in the hand before, AN INSTANT ALL IN. He has about 1100 chips. I have 66 but I don't have "I just got these chips" syndrome. I need to make up for lost time with no flops at a tight table. The read is as instant as the SB's chip push and I look down at 66. It is about a 3 second deliberation before I protect my cards and push all in as well.

I get a lot of respect on this move. They assume the SB ran into a monster. Not quite. But it will be a postflop monster.

The flop is

A

A

6

Two full houses in consecutive hands. The SB has a draw, but very lucky even his 3+ outs is crippled, as a limper (or 2) could have easily folded a Q. The turn is a 9, so a Q or 9 gives him a better full house, but really only the 9 is live and its three outs with a river to go. its a 6.

That's all well and good, but this is the best example of the night. A FANTASTIC shortstacked play.

This fellow has had the same experience as I preluck, and the blinds are 100/200. He has only 1200 chips. He has limped in from middle position. A lady to my right raises to 600. She is VERY readable. She has a good hand, but a not a huge hand. I am in the SB and have AJ. I want to see a flop, and 500 more to see if I catch a J isn't bad. Instinctively, BTW, that is my thought: catch a J, not catch an A. My reads are good tonight it will turn out.

The short stack limper does something which surprises me, but shouldn't have. He pushes the rest of his chips in. 1000 plus change more.

Here is an interesting little sidebar. There is a rule which I don't particularly like which says if you raise, and a short stack cannot complete a proper reraise when he goes all in (a proper raise being equal to the first raise) then the original raiser and everyone else intending to call are limited to a call.

Here, the raise to 600, which is a raise of 400, allowed the short stack reraise of just over 400 to leave the original raiser's option open. I don't know if she made this bet 600 to satisfy this rule (and if so, that is the mark of a very experienced player, and she might be, in spite of her linear approach to the game)

She is an instant all in to the reraise. ^This move tends to confirm my original instinctive read. This is an AK move. Its not a KK move or an AA move. One protects a hand with AK, and continues to seek a sidepot holding a huge pair.

I know I'm gambling, but, hey, my last two races produced full houses. I have a new marker and I want to test its luck. She made me fold AJ just two hands earlier. I still am in short stack gamble mode. This hand would have the same instructive value had I folded, but I gamble my AJ and she will show her AK.

The short stack has 87 of hearts. Little suited connectors like these have the best odds against big pairs (about 24% to hit straight, flush, or 2 pair) and I really like this move. AT WORST he is looking at a triple up (or close to if I fold) against a big pair, and those odds aren't two off his 24% chances. At best he has read the raise and call correctly, and he is up against two high Aces with live cards. Fact of the matter is, the typical situation here is one caller, not two, as one protects and the other folds, but I am being a donkey. All he has to do is hit a pair and dodge, typically, two A's and possibly three K's, but in this case, my three live J's. He is 30% to hit a a pair in 5 cards, those 8 outs representing 40% to bust his pair: if I fold, its a 25% factor. His approximately 1 in 3 (rounded generously) to triple up are still a gamble, but he has no gamble left and he had to make a move somewhere. We can round generously because the flush and straight opportunities are live two. My hand calculator puts 78 hearts at a WHOPPING 38% to beat AJ and AK in a full race. An optimist would call that a coinflip! In a three way pot! To triple up! No wonder he pushed with such delight. The AK has almost identical odds to win. You can figure where my 3 outer stands.

He will flop 9 6 7. A pair and open ended straight. He will catch the straight on the turn for the check mark. She will pick up a sidepot which realizes a meager net gain of about 1000 chips.

She did not expect me or intend me to call when she went all in. She wanted to race the short stack with AK. But the short stack read his situation better than she did. The price was good in the end, but my flat call out of position on her raise needed to tell her that her AK was not as strong has it could be. Well behind a small pair who had limped in the middle to test his situation. Certainly, her hand had reasonable odds of success for the price, and she correctly protected the hand by going all in. Except for the price I was getting and the gambles I was prepared to make. Correct play has a way of making correct play players yell at me and call me names while I rake in their chips. Because it requires your opponent to play predictably and correctly lay down like their supposed to.

This is unsophisticated play, in spite of my comments on the accuracy of her bet size. "Correct" players think there are bound rules saying you can't play 87 hearts for all your chips from middle position, or raise under the gun with A10 or 77, and that you can only play looser cards from deep in position, you can't play suited junk at all (K9 diamonds included), you can't call or raise with middle pair, etc etc.

In other words, this predictable table is EXACTLY what an aspiring Pokermonster needs to home his or her reading skills and deeper gamne. "Correct" players play "correctly" because their understanding of the game is not deep. It is not cerebral. It is "BY THE BOOK" (quite literally, and literarily, and usually Brunson's "Supersystem I": read it, if you haven't, and then understand the mechanical way some players will play this game "by the book").

Part of this "correct" play is the 3x the blinds bet. IT IS A TERRIBLE BET IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES! Early position the 3xer SCREAMS BIG HAND AFRAID TO LIMP BUT LOOKING FOR ACTION and I AM A ROOKIE. Middle and late position it SCREAMS I DIDN'T WANT 5 CALLERS, BUT I HAVE GIVEN EVERY LIMPER AND THE BLINDS ODDS TO CALL and I AM A ROOKIE.

As a result the hand had just gotten completely out of control. If she made a BIG BET, she isolates the limping short stack, protects AK from all but the best (and she had the button, so there are only the blinds to concern with), and prices my AJ out, because a call commits me to it. She maintains control: no callers, or short stack isolation. Instead, the AJ call of mine gives that short stack huge odds to gamble for his short risk, and I am now invested 600 into a pot with 2300 in it, a stack of 3000 left, and I could have been calling with a small pair! This is a real failure to shift gears and understand the game as it has evolved into the rounds where the blinds force short stacks to gamble.

HERE'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE. from a $300 buy in game which didn't turn out so lucky, but is an interesting hand.

THE PLAYER TO MY LEFT is a pretty good player with a few rookie edges. Young guy. Had to be explained the "single overchip without declaration is a call" rule. He is slow and deliberate, and really looks up his opponent before making a bet in any position. He has chipped up to 30k. I am limping around with 8000, looking for good spots. Blinds are 150-300. He is UTG: I am big blind. LETS CALL HIM LEFTY

LEFTY has opened the pot with a bet of 800, not quite even 3x the blind. We started with 10k, so this is really a modest bet. HE GETS 3 CALLERS before it comes around to me. I have 300 invested, there is about 3000 in the pot, and 500 to call. K6 spades. I don't play pot odds, but how can I lay anything down for that tiny price?

You should also know that he is in seat 10 and I in seat 9. His other opponents have position but sit acorss from him. I am in his right blind spot.

Leftly likes to bet post flop, and has lots of chips.

The flop is a dream: 9 6 2 ALL SPADES. I have second nuts. I instacheck.

leftly is looking up his opponents, BUT NOT ME. He is staring them down as he compiles his bet.

Lefty makes a MASSIVE OVERBET. 3500 in pot, HE BETS 20,000. All but about 8000 of his stack.

HE HAS ANNOUNCED that I HAVE NO SPADE and I AM A ROOKIE.

He never looks at me. I relax. I don't need a poker face. I have the second nuts. Only the A high flush is going to call him, he has read all the other opponents' disgust of the flop correctly anyway, and both of us know the other three will fold. He doesn't know that, if the A spades was out there, HE HAS JUST PROTECTED MY HAND not his.

So, when it's finally my turn I instacall and remind him that he forgot to look me up.

He turns over 22. "I have outs" he says "yeah, 25%" I says. He rivers a 9. Good flop, great play, bad luck. Boat beats flush.

I walked out but he made two awful mistakes. That tiny raise in no way protected his hand or defined his opponents. It simply added size to the pot. Then he took my "pot odds" BB call for granted, and assumed I was of no concern in vastly overbetting what was for him a tiny pot. If my pot odds BB call came with a big stack attached, as it often does, he needs a 12% river or he goes from chipped to chump and out the door.

GOOD LUCK!

Tournament Survival: getting in good with "trouble hands"

Well, lately its been limping, grind, and short stacking deep into tournaments. And we've all faced this situation: staring down a K10 spades or 88 and having to make that tournament defining decision: time to push or time to fold?

When all is said and done, you hope for a live K10, but you know you have to hit to win, and AK, KQ, and KJ all have you dominated. 30% is bad money, and all those hands are capable of calling depending on the player and his situation. Remember, you're short stacked and a call is a reasonable prospect given the price of poker in these crucial late rounds. If the blinds are 300-600 and I have 7000-8000 chips, my price might be too high, but if I'm down to 4000, I really have to get my cards in good.

You need to count cards every time you consider getting in. Did two people limp in, or consider limping in then fold? They probably dumped or are playing one or your live cards or straight outs QJ, JK, A10. If there are two already in the pot, K10 is probably dominated in one direction and missing straight outs in the other, and one of them will call if the price is right. Keep in mind that there are big pair limp trappers out there. Just because you're short stacked and folding and waiting no reason not to be paying full attention to the manner of a player's limp in. Early limp ins are so often traps, but the deliberate manner in the play and careful observation should at least clue you into risk. Limping in might be a better choice if you insist on seeing a flop if you can't give up the opprtunity to win.

I have found that in any sophisticated tournament situation, such as late in any live tournament, the early position limp trap is so prevalent that the players who act after and want to play their cards will limp in themselves, risking BB specials in exchange for position post flop. These good players have a great post-flop game, usually, so your choice to limp and see a flop will see a flop, but you are troubled by three things: the possible early limp trap, the possible BB special, and the superior post flop player in position. You're going to have to flop pretty big to get paid here. 20% of your stack to gamble on K10 in middle position is a bad investment as a limp in: its a worse investment as a raise all in given the same hands which coordinated with yours and would have seen a cheap flop still represent dead outs for your crappy K10, or QJ, or similar difficult hand.

The only real place for K10 is a late position steal (short stacked) or early position steal (medium stacked at a tight, preferably short (7-8 player) table, where it actually has a prospect of being the closest thing to a premium hand dealt). K10 is therefore NOT a CALLING HAND or a RAISING HAND if you can expect a call (short stacked to a limper, ex). You need a deeper stack to play it effectively. Pick a better spot if you can.

On the other hand, a small pair can be HUGE in these situations. Once again, beware of limp traps, but in a situation where there has been a RAISE and at least one CALL (particularly where you read some hesitation from the caller, or worry from the raiser after the call) you may be able to read whether two A-high hands are in ahead of you. More often than not, in these deep-tournament situations, the raiser probably had the weaker ace (say AJ) and the caller has the better AQ or AK. In other words, the most likely situation when you push all in with a pair is that the original raiser will fold (because he was already worried about the call, and the call acts last) and the caller will call you (because AQ and AK on paper (aka Phil Gordian math) look like a very good gamble on a smaller pair and a very good call on a weaker ace).

SO MUCH of this analysis depends on your observation skills and ability to read your opponents (see every other instructive blog for a million examples). You do NOT want to rumble your 66 against AA or KK who smooth called to disguise strength. Use all your weapons to test strength. Ask for a chip count.

Here's another trick, especially when you expect a slow play big hand. Ask for the count before looking at your own cards. Focus yourself on the count and the demeanour of the player as the chips are counted. I don't care if you have 84 off in the hole here, and an instant fold when you see the cards. You have done a few things for your game here:

(1) Established a good poker habit which focuses and improve your observation skills generally and gives you important observations of a player you may need to call or reraise later if not now;
(2) Generally pissed off the player, since he knows you haven't looked at your cards: hopefully, you can geta good tilt response. If it did get under his or her skin, exploit this. I am not afraid of a little table talk, if I can get into a player's head. Ex: I am playing in the usual monday game. A player I am familiar with was at my starting table, and we was bragging about being so close to a final table in the last big series. Just big table talk. He then gets on a lucky streak, and at one point his K5 off played from middle position hits 2 pair and knocks out the player in the BB who hit a BB special smaller 2 pair. He isn't playing well, he's just getting lucky. And, eventually starts paying off. At one point he is in a battle of the blinds: he had raised from the BB and the SB made the call. He will have A10, his opponent Q-rag. The flop is Q high, no Ace, no 10, and the bragger bets to a check and is called. The next card is junk, SB checks, A10 bets, SB check raises all in for now a reasonably serious price. A10 cant get off the concept of his preflop superiority, and calls and doubles up Q rag. And then he comments about how he played Q rag against a raise as being bad play. He got outplayed because he assumed he had to be called with something (any small pocket pair has him beat there too of course) and then was upset that his opponent knew Q paired no kicker was the best hand because A10 was outread and outplayed. So I see that A10 is the kind of guy who can dish it out and can't take it. So I have to respond to his comment with a comment about his K5 victory being just as loose. And was he offended! Perfect. Can dish it out, can't take it. I can put a guy like this off his game to get paid. And did.
(3) Gotten an extra look at the original raiser, who is now reacting to both the count, the player's reaction to the count, and your show of strength by acting for a count: if you see weakness, ask this player for a count too!
(4) You're making a habit of asking for a count routinely rather than only when you have a potential calling hand, so there is no special tell because you asked for a count;
(5) If you haven't seen your cards you can't give off any tells of your own.
(6) Ideally you have obtained the time and information to understand where your opponents stand, which will very much help you decide whether this is your time if you do see a calling hand in the hole.

Now, here is the most important thing: You have looked before you leapt, and now you see 88. Best hand in an hour.

PUT ON THE BRAKES IMMEDIATELY.

This is how I went from top 10 to bust out in the Coast to Coast main event in day two. It was a TIGHT,TOUGH table in day two FULL OF QUALITY STACKS. I had few hands, and was just milking 50-60k and not improving. An All-in to a small raise and call with AK. An outplay with 99 and position on a AAJ flop for a medium pot. I was over tired from the adrenaline of the day before, but still playing my game.

Two my left are two older players, late forties or so. The table seems to have picked nemeses: I have butted heads with the guy across from me (for asking for a blind count). The two players to my left have squared off. And these two. I have been watching intently. The player closest to me (L) has had position and has used it very well to bully his opponent to the right (R). They have done this 2 or three times.

In this particular hand, R has the button, L the SB, I am the BB. The play folds to R, and he raises. This is an obvious steal situation. L looks at his cards, and is clearly intent on playing sheriff. R's raise was to 6000 (1/10 of the stack), the re-raise from L to 25000. It is clear L intends to take this down preflop. But is he that strong, or just strong enough to play sheriff?

One of the problems here is that I have never seen either player showdown a hand to help establish a pattern. But this has gone on for at least 2 minutes, I have formed an impression: R is stealing, L has a big enough hand to play sheriff, but weak enough to want to take it down preflop. He is not gambling here, and does not intend to gamble.

So my impression is AJ to AK.

I look at my hole cards. I see 88 and immediately push. I'd seen enough, right?

WRONG. R folds instantly, and L only semi-reluctantly makes the call. He has 10 10.

YOU SURE DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO DO THIS ANALYSIS POST-HAND WHEN YOU WERE AMONG THE LAST 50 PLAYERS IN A $2700 BUY IN MAIN EVENT WITH 50000 CHIPS AND BLINDS OF 1000-2000!

L had about 75,000 chips. His raise made him deeply committed to the pot. I was not going to induce a fold here. I have been in this situation myself re-raising from the SB with AJ and running into the BB. A pair as big as 10 10 is a real big hand in this three-way situation. AJ would also make the call.

At best, in other words, AT VERY BEST, my 88 is up against R and L BOTH holding Ax, ONE CALLER, and a MADE HAND of mine against 5 outs (66% to win) AND GUARANTEED I am in for my tournament life on a coin flip or a handicapped coin flip.

If I deliberate my cards just a little here, I can gauge a reaction and get that more of a read. Maybe I just pick a better spot.

R will disclose he had 77. If L had folded, R was the weaker player, and a raise from me has the right effect. But my reads were all wrong, and I had an opportunity to gauge their hands a little further, the alarm goes off and I pick a better spot.

The ultimate point is this: a full and complete picture (too many people want to see a flop in a barely raised or limped in situation, and the original raiser looks concerned) should say that your pocket pair is WAY AHEAD because your opponents need to catch each others cards. I remember such a read once, where I put my QQ in against AK and AK: another time, where I called a small raise with JJ, then watched a guy seriously consider his hand (I correctly read AJ) while another raised all in (correctly read as AK), causing raiser 1 (AQ) to fold, me to recognize that JJ was WAY AHEAD ( 72% or so). He caught a K, but the other players confirmed my read was perfect. The last time, I had 99 in the BB and went all in: only AK (3x blind original raiser) called called, and I announced he had dead cards: I caught a 9 on the flop, and watch his 4 flush river pair the board so that my full house beat his flush, but without an A or K to be found anywhere.

This, my friends, is how very good players play small pairs seemingly "fearlessly" in apparent "coin-flip" situations. They have accurately read their situation: Go Ask Al: he can tell you a story about calling for all his chips with 33 against AK and AQ and tripling up.

Sick, dude.

Happy pokering.

Back to talk about...renovations?

Truth be told, the month of September has only indirectly been about poker. The poker table demanded renovations! The first two pics had been conveniently selected to minimize the decrepit state of my dining room. Many hours of renovations later, hard work pays off. Third picture is my new dining room, inspired by the themes and beauty of the Crummer custom poker table.

Don't buy a Crummer custom table if you're not prepared to built a space suitable for it!

Well, I can't work three jobs. I only have one meager online $1300 prize to report so far this month, but it paid for the renovation materials and my ski pass for the winter.

The moral to this message is the same as the same and my poker message: hard work, patience, and attention to detail and the keys to success in this game and in renovations and in life. This room is a symbol of these ingredients. Time to leave the construction zone and get back into the poker zone....

More to follow as I play some satellites on the way to the BC poker championships. I also provided a free roll into a satellite as top prize in the debut game on the custom table. Hopefully, we can track Derek E's success along with mine over the next two months.

Been a while

Yes, been a lazy blogger. Never did finish the Coast to Coast main event story. The bluff and suckout for a huge pot to end the night. or the bad read with 88 to end the tournament.

Since, however, that experience has improved my patience, mental stamina, and most importantly, my poker face. $10,000 in 30 days in 3 separate midlevel tournaments not so shabby. We are leading to the BC poker championships, and I promise to write....

THE REAL NEWS

THE TABLE OF TABLES

Check out Crummer Poker Tables y'all. Maybe I can figure out the pics and the link up to make it easy on you. This bad baby is 100% custom designed and made by the owner of the company...my little reminder of what poker can accomplish and what it's yet to accomplish....

Main Event $3000 part II (of....): levels 3, 4 and 5

Back to the action.

I am disappointed but not dismayed at the break ending level 2. Big John and and Trailer Mouth have some nice stacks, I am among the poor with about 11,000 chips. I am not fond of being understacked at any stage of a tournament. It seriously limits my ability to speculate with interesting cards. But I had made some terrific reads, leading to good folds (calls? I wish).

When I raised 50/100 blinds to 375 with 10 10, and Trailer Mouth called with position, I put him on AK. When the flop was K garbage rainbow, I checked, and he value bet 500, I told him "the only hand I can put you on is AK", and mucked. Out of respect for the read, he confirmed it. He also told me he didn't have a clue how I played. Perfect scenario, but Trailer Mouth would actually avoid being in pots with me the rest of the day. He knew I had his number. Fact is, I told everyone else what his number was, and he confirmed it. He would play only lucky hands where people slammed into KK.

TJr will make a valiant effort to play his way out of his 2000 chip crisis point, until he runs into Trailer Mouth's KK. Say no more. Let's speak of his replacement.

He is an older guy, maybe 50, and his stack is similar to mine. He is immediately to my left. His stack, position, and newness make him a potential threat, but I will make a few plays and observations which will prove critical. Lets call him Small Ball, as that is how he plays

I have limped in with A9 for 100. We are late in level 2 (yes, this is titled levels 3 and 4, but let me set it up first). Small Ball raises to 300.

I HATE this raise. My limp in early position, and a 3x blind raise that simply invites not only my call, but every tom, dick, and harriet (no ladies at this particular table) to see a flop too. It reeks of a semi-trap, but it still invites so many drawing hands into it. I am last of say, 5 people to call.

The flop is 10 10 9. There are so many people that a 10 is an open possibility, and I am third of 6 to act. With 2 in front checking, I really want to test my pair here. I make a "stay out of trouble" bet that I hope to be consistent with a value bet with a 10: 600 into a pot of 1800.

Small Ball raises my bet to 1500. The rest of the field told, leaving me heads up to contemplate the bet. My bet has served the purpose of identifying a trap. I invite you to always make at least a small bet into a pot like this to expose the guy who wants to trap his trips. A smooth call where there is no draw is a sure tell.

This raise is not trips. Trips can't resist the greed and fears scaring off the better, because only 99 or A10 can call or raise. In a multiway pot here, J10 can't be sure he isn't outkicked by Q 10, K 10 or A 10, all very reasonable hands in this pot.

I announce my read to Small Ball and the table. "QQ or 77 I say", several times. I take my time. "No way you have the 10" I say. Am I exposing my cards with my talk? Maybe, but I think I might talk this way in a trap too, to convince a player I am weak. Really, I want to get a tell. Eventually, I will say "I can't tell which, so I have to fold", but really I did get one. My exposition of the fact I did not hold a 10 made him very comfortable with his cards. He had the overpair, not the underpair. He will confirm it. "Somewhere in the middle," he exposes. The answer is pretty much an admission he had JJ. The only other option is 88 and he was too comfortable to be sweating it with 88.

Okay, JJ = weakass raise. Noted.

Shortly after that, Small Ball will get into trouble in a hand he limped AK in with. He will lose a smallish pot that checks down to expose the hand. It is my policy when I am playing "tricky" to put myself in a position to not have to expose a trap play, buy betting small on the river, or whatever. So now I know he wants to play big hands small and tricky.

But Small Ball is not getting what he needs playing small and tricky. He will soon be a shorter stack than I, and this is how we will sit coming into level 3.

I myself want to play some tricky poker in order to maximize the ability to win a big pot to climb back to a reasonable position. I do not like the fact that 11,500 only doubles to 23,000 and remains a modest stack.

So, in a very similar situation in early position I am first to enter the pot and I hold QQ. Even though the blinds are only 75/150, I am prepared to trap, and simply complete the 150. Then things get interesting.

Small Ball announces a raise. He has the authority in his voice of a man who has found a hand to play with. He bets....ugh 500. Blech. Can this guy get out of his small ball game?

Interesting development....Big John, who is now seeing a LOT of flops because he has a LOT of chips (at least 35,000, maybe more) is in the BB and makes the weak bet call.

I am not particularly fond of this situation. I don't want a cheap ass, three way pot holding QQ, and I know Small Ball has a hand to call a raise or reraise with (but NOT AA or KK: you know I know, and if you don't, there are about 43 blogs behind this one to explain how I know: If you still have to ask, you'll never know, but at least you tried, and I thank you for reading). So I do what is generally considered a tell, a trap exposure, a reraise, to a reasonable sum, 1500. This was a VERY USEFUL BET. Small ball JUST CALLS, confirming he does not have AA or KK, because his call involves uncertainty. He has no idea what I have. Big John, still the flop monster calling station will also JUST MAKE THE CALL. He needs to see a flop, but I think its clear to him he is now hoping to catch a huge flop to check raise these needy short stacks with. Anyway, I put Small Ball on AK, which he now needs to be best hand, because his rope is thinning. He has about 8,000 left

Fine.

Flop time.

A Q 3

WOW, except for one little problem..........

ALL SPADES.

I have flopped amazing, but I will in no goddam way give up this 4500 pot which I created and I flopped to some flishy suckout ["flish" origin: mine. definition: some "fish" who will pay any amount to chase a flush and then catches it on the river; also describes the result of a a flish hitting that river..."That goddam flish caught his flish on the goddam river:]

I IMMEDIATELY recognise this as NOT A MADE FLUSH situation. This is just experience, but let me break it down: Big John LOVES calling with pocket pairs. He will legitimately check the flop, being first to act (and we have seen how he will small bet the nuts before), and I see clear disappointment on his face: if he had 88 (reasonable here) he wanted a small, small flop, or trips. Board way to big and way too scary, and he is good enough to know that that A is a killer.

His check being a clear surrender, AK of course CANNOT be of spades! The A on the board is a spade, duh! But there is no way I am giving up this pot to Small Ball, or allowing Big John to speculate with the 8 of spades (unlikely, but if the price and read are right...). My concern is that Small Ball's holding one big spade, and will try to manage the pot size until he hits.

The response: don;t get greedy. 4500 in the pot, about 9300 left. Take this sucka down with best hand while it is still clearly the best hand. What better form of protection than a bet that only the nuts (or someone nuts) can call?

ALL IN

Dealer counts my chips out. They lay there on the felt, begging to be taken.

Then something wonderful, magical, a miracle, happens.

Three breaths later...

Small Ball can't lay his AK down here. He needs to win a pot. He has NO IDEA WHY I WENT ALL IN! HE CALLS!

"set of ladies" I announce and turn over. He looks tragically shaken. You have a spade? I ask. He doesn't. Then he does something that really, really, really warms me to this guy.

He surrenders. He musks his cards. He doesn't pray for a miracle suckout and watch for it to happen. He concedes he was outplayed and outflopped, and walks from the table.

We all know, in detail, about the ULTIMATE SUCKOUT. The runner runner OMG 1.6% that turned final table gold into done in 7th. Read all about it, and how it led to my finding poker zen. Trailer Mouth, of course, champion of the little guy that he is, advocates staying at the table to watch runner runner spades split the pot, but very much appreciate the gesture of the beaten to accept he was beaten and thus maintain dignity in the face of defeat.

(as an aside, Amy, the donkey regular who was the recipient of that bad beat, when at the table together the next week, had forgotten all about it. I imagine the rest of her final table experience was forgettable too. She bad, bad poka playa. She have bad bad, poka face. She neva find Poka Zen if Poka Buddha slap her in face. I read this in a fortune cookie)

I will sit tight with my 22000 chips. It looks better, it feels better, but I have a lot of work to do. I will wait out my next double up opportunity.

In the meantime, I will watch Big John make big mistakes in big pots. He is playing TOO MANY POTS. He is trying to outplay people, but the table is quite sophisticated. One guy, already on the short stack after, like me, having to make good fold after good fold, and holding QQ from the BB, in a marginally raised pot with a low, garbage flop checks to the original raiser a big guy named Ryan (real name), who bets value, 600, leading to a raise to 2000, and then a reraise at it turns to him of 5000. When the original raiser, a good guy also looking for a spot, after some deliberation, and very much to my surprise, goes all in, this guy in the BB really goes in the tank, puts the re-re-reraiser on KK and folds his QQ! He has only 5000 left and he folds QQ! And out or respect, our re-re-raiser exposes his KK! This is how sharp this table is. I DID NOT put the guy on KK. To his credit, he had set up his raise by raising early with weaker hands earlier in the day, and there was no tell-tale as far as I can tell.

This is like, for many of us, going from undergrad to lawschool. We are used to having it easy, then we get tossed in with a bunch of brilliant players who test our egos and our skills.

Big John cannot outplay this table. Other than Trailer Mouth, who only plays huge hands and otherwise talks incessantly (he will GET VERY VERY ANNOYING, either telling us how to play poker, telling the dealer how to deal, or discussing Canadiana with his his disinctly redneck point of view. These are not your homeys, Cracker. Learn how to be PC in public dude. And yes I did pay for that call I made on the river, asshole), Big John is a small fish in a big pond. His first HUGE MISTAKE comes when what appears to be a buddy of his arrives to fill a vacancy beside him and to his left in seat 6.

Here is a VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON. Chinese males, in pots together, insist on pissing matches. Very, very, very small penis syndrome, I think. You can't reraise me, I reraise. Very much to their detriment. Lets discuss this. It will happen alot and be very relevant to my tournament results.

Okay. Big John's Buddy (lets call him Bud) is a creative player. He likes to outplay, but he always takes his time to reason and judge. He is also loose aggressive, and you can tell these guys know each other's game.

Bud has the button, and raises. Big John has the small blind. He clearly has a hand and reads the steal, and reraises. 1200 have become 6000. Bud thinks....then makes the call. The flop is 9 8 4ish and Big John, with big hand, continue bets, but, as he does, for value. Bud will deliberate and make the call.

These guys will bet, check, checkraise, blah blah, all the way to the river. The cards never get higher than 9. There is at least 20k in the pot. Bud will not let go of this pot, and Big John is first to act.

Big John has fired 3 bullets already. I SEE CLEARLY that he has built a big pot which he has MISSED but this investment can only be taken down with a bet. IT IS REALLY OBVIOUS that he has been lured into a big pot by a big ego problem. HE NOW HAS TO BET THE RIVER big enough to be credible and small enough to save his chips.

Big John bets 6000 on the river. Bud deliberates, AND JUST CALLS. He takes his time. He figured Big John out and turns over his A8 in response to big John's sooted AQ.

A very good player, perhaps one who knows his opponent too well, can read when his small ace which has hit the flop, perhaps for 2nd or 3rd pair, is ahead against the big ace. I have done this MANY TIMES. AK is in real trouble against A5 when the flop is 10 9 5, and if A5 knows what his man has, and AK keeps firing bluffets (new term: bullets fired when you hand is actually dead), A5 can check raise all in and get paid sometimes postflop.

So Huge MISTAKE BIG JOHN! Thanks for the info, baby.

Big John still has big chips, about 40 thousand. For now.

Dinner break time. I and Ryan wind up sharing a dinner table and discuss how lucky we are in this tough field that our big hands won us big enough pots to stay ahead of this game.

Soon after the break, blinds not 150/300 no ante, I get my real opportunity. I am first to open the pot in middle position and hold gold: KK. With 5 or 6 players to act, I need value here. I can't limp this in, and risk too many in the pot, and the chip stacks are now so troubled I can expect a raise. I elect a modest raise, to 800.

It is a good thing that I played pots early, sometimes raised, and limped in the QQ. It really disquises a hand. Many players will avoid a tricksy opponent they can't read. Trailer Mouth is smart enough to know he's not my calibre of player.

Big John, however, is a bit tilty now. He has squandered, oh say, 33,000 (wow, that's a lot) and still has 40,000 to play with. He refuses to really alter his game, and insists on playing a lot of hands. He is in the big blind and will make the call.

Big John is playing a wide variety of hands. He has a good poker face except when he thinks he's in trouble. I really have no idea what he called with.

The flop is 9 clubs, 8 clubs, 4 diamonds, a good, not a great flop for KK. 89 has two pair, 99 has me killed, 88 likewise, and 10 J clubs has a MONSTER DRAW. He could have any of those hands, and I need to know.

Big John will check the flop. I need information. I make a very standard bet in this situation, a bet I like a lot.

The pot being 1700, I bet 1200. Cheap to my opponent, and pot odds for most draws. Why offer pot odds? (A) If he flopped enormous, I should pick it up from his response. He has check raised and can do it again (B) I often can put a guy on a draw by inviting the call to see the draw.

Big John just calls. There is something he likes about his hand, and I am not sure what it is. HE DOES NOT HAVE A SET OR TWO PAIR. I don't see confidence: he has a hand, but he has concerns.

What we will discover, is that he does not have a clue what I have.

The turn is fantastic. 3 of hearts. No improvement for him, and he checks.

I am NOT LETTING OUR CALLING STATION SEE A CHEAP RIVER. He has me outstacked, I feel that KK is huge NOW, I have the chips to really set him off.

I'M ALL IN

The dealer counts out my remaining chips. 21,000 chips are protecting my 2000 chip investment to win a 4200 chip pot.

Big John is comfused. I am unresponsive. "Why so much?" he thinks aloud. "why so much?" He can't figure my bet out, but he has told me something. He has something good, but something less than the nuts.

He is thinking aloud about the range of hands I could have. A set maybe. What he doesn't put into play is how I have read him. What he has represented. A big stack willing to pay to catch a big draw.

But it is clear he doesn't have a big draw, he has a big hand short of the nuts. He really doesn't want to lay his hand down. The only thing I reveal, as he deliberates out loud, is me breaking the tension by stating "well, now I know what you have [an overpair, and only one of those beats me and calls instantly]". He responds to this with some desperation about how me knowing what he has isn't really what matters right now. This, if he had been attentive enough to notice, caused me to relax a bit and enjoy the tiniest, tiniest of smiles. I think he is going to call, and I know he is beat.

He does. It took 5 minutes but he exposes JJ. The river is trash. I double through and become table captain and chip leader.

Big John, having flamed out in the middle rounds trying to parlay early round luck, will fall victim to a big pair within 30 minutes of me cracking him back down to 20,000 chips.

I now have close to 50,000 chips and I can finally, finally, finally, feel relaxed. 150/300 blinds, hour levels, I have a huge stack. I can play any game I want and this table will fear my bets. Very Very VERY good situation to be in.

Do not lament Big John. I like Big John. He, like I, will learn much from his experience in the Main Event. He is a bright guy and a good player. He will probably tilt for a month over squandering that huge, easily won stack, but he will be stronger for it and I will respect his next bet should we next joust.

I will end the night's discussion there. Part 3 will be....interesting....

The Full Monty: $3000 main event (part 1 of however many it takes)

Hey there!


Okay, I'm in a talkabout poker mood now, so lets walkabout a couple of hands.

I have VERY LITTLE to say about the $1000.00 preliminary event other than I liked the structure generally (10000 chips and 45 minute levels) and that it played more like a regular weekly in slowed down, big stack form. I played a little too conservative, and regret a few pushouts when could have trapped. Not a perfect example of Poker Monster play, but I did get the heebie jeebies out. A good warm for the main event. Lasting 7.5 hours without really having quality hands in real payoff situations is a credit to my game. It was frustrating watching people pay off the guy to my left when he got paid off early flopping quad 9s and letting 55 catch a full house at the end, then people, over and over, walking into KK KK, KK, AK, and KK which he happened to be holding when they pushed in desperation. Must be nice to have a game handed to you.

I grinded out small pot after small pot, and chipped to about 22,000 at peak on the basis of strong post-flop play, but the only race I was in was my last hand. A lack of cards/action through the last 2 hours forced my stack down to 11,500, simply an unacceptable quantify 30 minutes left into day 1 with 600/1200 blinds commencing day two. I was not greedy: I had a simple goal of 30k ending day one, enough to be able to remain patient, but I wasn't going to limp into day 2 and pray I catch AA or KK and action in the first 2.5 hours while watching my chips ante and blind off. When a player I knew well raised 3x the blind UTG I knew he had a hand: he only plays PPs or AK in that position this late in the game, but when play folds to me and I have AQ, I know I'm unlikely to see better in the next 15 minutes, and I'd rather take the day off and rest up for the main event than bother getting up the next day. I am exhausted. Playing constantly from the mediocre stack means playing for your life potentially in every pot you play. AQ good enough. QQ good enough to call. I really don't care. More luck to him.

Better luck to me in the main event.

It was a good warm up, and I take the day off completely to rest my poor dehydrated brain. As a result I am well rested with a good night sleep and a good feel for how to get through a long day of poker in what will be a slower, deeper, more serious game.

My initial plan is to get involved early. I have 15000 chips, and levels one and two are 25/50 and 50/100. I DO NOT WANT A TIGHT IMAGE. I want two things: A good feel for my opponents at the table, and and opportunity to exploit my creative skills with interesting hands while the price is right to play them. It will turn out that my game does not result in any chip improvement, but my chip investments will turn out extremely valuable in information used to make critical plays later.

Much of the table play will centre on BIG JOHN, a late 20's oversized Chinese guy who sits in seat 7: I am in seat one. In this first, absolutely critical hand, BIG JOHN is in the big blind. There has already been a limper in the pot, blinds are 25/50, and I hold K10 off suit: a marginal hand, but dirt cheap to play, so I limp in too. The guy beside me, who has a voice and look of a 40-something TJ Cloutier (TJr, if you will) also limps in. There may be another limper or two: The pot is unraised, and BIG JOHN simply checks.

The flop is K 8 3 rainbow. There is no draw at all and I have top pair. I have no feel for the other players in the pot. I have an acceptable hand in a limped in pot. It might be the best hand.

BIG JOHN makes a small bet: 150. I make a smooth call. TJr makes the call too. All others get out.

I have no idea where I stand. BIG JOHN is inscrutable. My impression is that was a top pair no kicker standard probe bet from the blinds. I cannot understand why the smooth call to my left. I am, however, suspicious. There is no draw on the board.

The turn is a trash card. BIG JOHN makes a decent bet: 600. With 600 in the pot, the pot size bet doesn't scare me. I make the call, but I am still suspicious. I am prepared to call some value bets until the river here, but then TJr then does something VERY SURPRISING.

There is an aura of "enough is enough" now emerging from TJr. His demeanour had been very calm, but now it is agitated. Then he BETS BIG. 6500! WTF?????

I have already seen him play some weird hands. He could easily have K8 or K3 suited. As far as my standing in this hand, something is very wrong.

it gets worse (for him). BIG JOHN now emerges from his shell. He has the look. The agitation. He is ALL IN

?????!!!!!!!

"I know where I stand in this hand" I say as I lay down. TJr is in the tank briefly, but makes the call. With AA.

TJr is beat. BIG JOHN turns over 88, and TJr is crippled.

This early boon for BIG JOHN is both his blessing and his curse.

Soon after, again BIG JOHN is in the BB in a limped in or barely raised pot. A VERY READABLE player, a white guy with a trailer park attitude who talks too much (Trailer Mouth is a good name) is in the pot with him.

The flop is 494 and BIG JOHN makes a small bet Trailer Mouth makes a small call. He has a demeanour, tho, of a big hand. I can see it.

The turn is a 6. BIG JOHN makes a MEDIUM BET of 800. He is betting VERY SIMILARLY to the prior hand. Trailer Mouth makes a value raise (obviously, I can see he has a monster hand) to 2000. BIG JOHN makes a cautious call.

The river is irrelevant. BIG JOHN looks suspicious, and checks. Trailer Mouth makes a solid bet of 5000 (his best play of the night...he is a shitty, abc player with no poker face who will get lucky a couple of times waking up with KK against a pot committed player's raise, but he thinks he's a player. He's just a yokel playing by the book) This bet is pot size, but very big in relation to the timing of the game and the preciousness of our starting stack, but he is not at risk.

BIG JOHN is in the tank briefly, but agonizing makes the big call. he has a big hand. 66. Trailer Mouth has 99.

BIG JOHN practically is crying. He put his man on 99. He had probe-bet the flop (as any would, a good flop for 66) and his gut said 99. Even turning the full house, his gut said SLOW DOWN. He feels like he dodged a bullet.

BIG JOHN had his head up and was in the zone, but refused to fully trust his instincts. That gut will save you every time! Maybe 1/2 his gut wanted to to prove the other 1/2 right, but this semi mistake will be the first of several critical ones. (I am leading up to something....) BIG JOHN will become rather flustered and confused as his head and his gut continue to battle....

I will continue the tragic story of Big John very shortly.....