Chapter 9 point sumpin': More Final Table Talk

Hey ladies and gents. Bit tired today, working two jobs and all that. Made 4th at the final table yesterday, after walking in 40 minutes late for the tourney due to job #1, and, before I talk about some fine points of final table play, I just want to point out some awful mistakes I saw along the way.

Lets start with a "pot odds" "obligatory" call, discussed in detail in chapter 8.1, August 24. Wow this was a bonehead, "pot odds" call.

The player a few chairs to my left has been down on his luck and short stacked FOREVER. But he seems to have found a knack for survival, and is still here with 3000 chips after winning a pot from the BB with only 1/2 the BB left for s atck not so long ago. He may be desperate, but he has been playing survival poker well. When 3 players, including me fold to him, and 4 left at the table, he pushes his chips in, and the players fold to the BB.

The BB has 1500 committed to the pot, and with the SB, antes and the short stack's raise also in, the pot is 6200, leaving him 1500 chips to call for a pot of 7700, or what Mike Sexton would describe as 4:1 on his money.

But the BB has only 7000 chips left after making the call, and he has, well, OMG at least its suited..... 2 3 clubs. At least he goes into the tank, but he calls, strictly on pot odds. No other thought required, although he hates himself.

And when he winds up against JJ, I can't help but criticize his bonehead play. BECAUSE HE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE 1500 MORE. It's not like I put the short stack on JJ here, although he has often made his moves with any PPs, putting him on a hand is a factor.

If our caller had analyzed the short stack's game at all, it is clear he would push at least 50% of the time with a pocket pair, and the other 50% of the time, the short stack is guaranteed to have two overcards on against his miserable 2 3. ANY PP has 2 3 dominated to a 80% or better chance to win at least, and the only thing that gives 2 3 any hope is being a suited connector hand offering a 3% flush or 3% straight possibility. If we make the short stack have AJ, AJ is a 61% dominating hand, 63% if one card is a club. Similarly, if the short stack has one club in his PP, give his odds 2% more, and that is a 50/50 proposition too. A bigger suited connector of a different suit has 64% odds to beat 2 3 clubs and if clubs as well, gets 66% to win

So, if 50% of the time I am dominated by a PP and 19% to win, and the other 50% of the time I am 33% to win against ANY TWO RANDOM CARDS, I have 26% chance to win 6200 chips for another investment of 1500. Lets add to this the fact that the SB only pays 500 in this structure at my casino, and we are 8 handed, meaning 8 full hands until I have to pay a BB again. I am 74% likely to have 7000 chips left at the end of the hand, 26% likely to have 15700, and folding guarantees me 8500 in chips with a cheap SB which doesn't need protection.

Lets just call this "pot odds" vs "Al's Law". You will remember Al is the master of the short stack. Al folds here and so do I. We are in the final 16, and I may need 8500 chips to force a big stack in the BB to lay down when I have to steal to survive. 7000 or less might not cut it. And if I do get action when I get a hand, I want as big a stack as I possible doubled up.

Miller and Sklansky might break this down into "EV" values. If I am 25% likely to win 6200, my expected value for playing is 1/4 the profit, or 1550 in chips, almost precisely the cost of my investment. It is equally "profitable" to lay the hand down. EV says your move is good either way, basically, but of course an EV analysis is a cash game concept based strictly on probabilities, without any real consideration for the consequences of losing chips you can't rebuy. If you are in this scenario 4 times, it will pay of one of those 4 times, resulting in even money. Each time you will invest 1500 chips, for a total of 6,000, and one of those times you will get a return of 6200.

If you add "Al's Law" to an EV analysis, this is an easy laydown. If you put the pusher on a PP, and there was enough chat between them to get a clue, EV drops to 1178, making folding the More profitable move. You are 76 to 81% LIKELY (the different and worse value being attributed to a successful read that he has a PP) to simply lose another 1500 chips you can't afford to lose. If you had 25,000 chips, the price sounds fairer, but even so, with at best 33% to win (assuming an accurate read he has two open overcards and not a PP) you may knock a player out and get that much closer to the final table, you are still 66% likely to improve the fortunes of a player who has survival skills and could become a dangerous opponent later should this double up set him up for another one which turns him into a contender.

So, our short stack survivor limped into the final table with about 11,000 chips, and our "pot odds" caller who felt the need to defend his call from my criticism in the bathroom at the break, busted out in 13th.

I, on the other hand, played the final 20 patiently, having doubled through with QQ to get there with 20,000. After dropping to 15,000 for having nothing (and taking adavantage of some steal opportunities in the tightness of the final 20 to hold onto 15,000) I managed to double through again raising with AJ all in from the button, and persuading the BB to call by telling him the truth, that I had my "Lucky Hand". Her put all his chips in with QK and I rivered a J I didn't need.

And a marvelous thing then happened. I and the player to my right both had the big stacks at the table, he 40,000, me about 32,000, and we protected each others' blinds from steals as a result. In addition, my opponent having caught a swing of luck, knew he was good to go to the final and pretty much stopped playing. So when I was in the BB, everyone folded to us, and my chip leader without position gave me 3 walks in a row to snatch the blinds and antes for free.

As another example, this time from the correct side of "pot odds" play, at our final table a medium stack, the same fellow I just spoke about who gave me 3 passes on my BB at the prior table, who I know tends to raise with solid hands, especially in poor position, raises to 7000 with blinds of 1500/3000 in early position. He has about 21000 left, and the SB, to whom we all fold, is the chip leader and he asks for the count. He talks too much, and, while it is clear he has a hand, he is out of position, and elects to make the call, knowing the BB, also a big stack, has fantastic odds to call 4000 more and see a flop. He knows this because he says so, and I get a tell from him that he is deliberately building a bigger pot: in fact, maybe he is this clever, even if he shouldn't think aloud so much: He has built a pot size which exactly matches the remaining chips of the original raiser. The BB, a pregnant woman whom the people at her table have been respecting (for her game, not her condition) makes the call anyway, and why not, she is adding 4000 chips to a 18,000 chip pot, or 4.5 to 1 on her money, as Mr. Sexton is fond of announcing.

Lets keep in mind that this is NOT a showdown situation, all players can afford to fold, and the BB (Baby Bearer?) can flop huge with any two cards, possibly on a flop where either other player has top pair.

If I am the BB with her stack, I will lay down trash, but call any reasonable hand, and this includes some pretty weak hands like 10 7, J 5, just because a BB special cannot be read. If I have a HAND here, one capable of trapping with, like KK or QQ, or one with big flop potential, I can make a call here that LOOKS LIKE a simple pot odds call too and disguise my hand. In this scenario, a little PP make a perfect disguised call which could lead to a huge flop and big fireworks. In other words, the BB has CORRECTLY used pot odds to either see a cheap flop in a big pot or lay a huge trap in a pot that the original raiser may be very tempted to take a stab at, given that he can make a post flop bet in position in an amount which may be difficult to call, unless his opponents are in fact trapping.

Alas, if the BB was attempting a trap, we shall never know, as the SB who had been laying too much of a trap himself with his words and actions, makes the pot sized bet as first to act post flop, with a K high flop, and everyone folded. He will show QK. Clearly he isn't the sneaky, silent type, but taking a nice pot down after a nice flop is a solid conservative play that avoids, say, luring JJ to bet the flop and go all in only to catch his 2 outer or whatever. I think I check raise or bet a little less on the flop just in case someone has a trap to spring on me, like AK, AA or a lucky set on the flop.

While our talkative SB player with the big stack has been catching way to much luck, I think by talking too much, he missed an opportunity to win the bigger pot. QK is certainly a calling hand from the SB in that situation, and not likely a raising hand given the reputation of the original raiser and the so-so quality of QK as a showdown hand. You want to see a flop with it, and you want some indication of where you stand. PokerMonster makes a quiet call, and probably will check raise on that flop unless one of my opponents demonstrates a post flop tell that tells me top pair Q kicker is in trouble.

And here's another "pot odds" laydown, again at the final table, and this time I am in the hot seat, in the SB with 35000 chips, blinds 1500/3000 and the same Survivor who got 23 to call his JJ comes in for all his chips, 9000. I have QJ off suit, and strongly suspect I have two over or two live. A little bird is saying Survivor has a little PP. There is another short stack with 20,000 in the BB. I am looking at a pot of 15000, an investment of 7500, and its is just as likely my opponent has a modest Ace, giving me 42% to win, or a modest PP, offering me two overs and a coinflip, and some possibility that I am dominated for only 30% to win. Let's say the proportions are 45/45/10 respectively, but I really have a hunch he has a small PP. The less informed consideration of my odds still offers me odds of over 40% to win, if I can isolate from the BB. If I just call, I risk inviting the BB in, whom I know is something of an odds player, a good, tight player, but still one with a little less complication to his game than mine. He is a regular best noted for Phil Hellmuth-like rants after going in with the best of it and losing to suckouts, a regular occurrence. He will eventually go out of this final table calling a 95 sooted steal all in on his blind holding AK and watching both the 9 and the 5 hit.

But back to this situation. 43% heads up with Survivor minimum, very likely a coinflip and 3 to1 on my "money".

It's not money. My money is waiting for me at the cashier once I take this tourney down or bust out trying.

These are tournament chips I have earn back if I am wrong. Survivor has shown a knack for surviving. I don't want him to have 22,500 chips, and Ranting Man still has to act. A three way pot drops me down to 33% to win what is now a very large pot, and I won't have position or know where I stand post flop. My 33% to win is 20% to manifest itself on the flop. I can read my opponent but not the top 8 cards remaining in the deck. Just a call offers Ranting Man 6000 to pay to win 22,500, even better odds. A raise could run into something I don't want, and I'd prefer to keep Ranting Man small, too, not potentially double him up on an investment of 6000 chips or close to triple him up and cripple myself trying to push him out with Q high. Mike Sexton will also not tell you to bust out holding Q high. He is SO CONFLICTED.

I am less conflicted.

I fold.

BB calls with A8. I was dead right on my read of Survivor. He has 55. Running this scenario on the odds computer puts me at 37.1% to win if I play and Survivor calls. I would have to hit a J or Q while avoiding an A, 5 or, 8 8 to win. Given that Survivor may have read a call as a pot odds call, he may have pushed up with A high sensing weakness too. Losing this hand could have meant losing 7500 or 20,000 of my 35,000.

How was I to know the flop would have both a Q and a J? A8 can't catch up, and Survivor doubles up, but I still have 35,000 chips. I am an advocate of playing to win, but playing to win means playing smart not just getting lucky. I have plenty of chips to wait for better opportunities, and to ride out other busts if those opportunities don't materialize. In this case, my 35000 chips were enough to crash into 4th, even if good cards never materialized.

Here is another huge mistake. We are back to the final 20. There is a large fellow in seat one with a modest stack of about 11,000.00. In seat one, the dealer is to your right and you really can't see the players in seats 8, 9 and 10. Seat 8 had raised to 3700. Seat 10 had called. (The blinds had been 500/1000 at the time). Big #1 can't see that Seat 10 only has 5000 left. Seat #1 goes all in, and then looks sick while seat 10 goes in the tank after seat 8 folds.

Big #1 has 44. He was trying to re-raise-steal, I presume. Seat 10 calls with K J or similar, and catches up to 44 to double up while Big #1 cripples up. Just plain dumb.

Not only does the chip count request slow things down, and gets information not only in chip stack size but your opponent's confidence level, but you shouldn't even need the information here to lay down 44, or maybe just call. I don't think it is a very profitable call, with only 11% to catch your set while being out of position against players you can't even see, given the commitment to the flop is already 30% of your stack.

Player 8 may have a hand, or have attempted to steal. Player 10 may have a calling hand, or a trapping hand, or just intends to outplay the raiser postflop. But it is almost guaranteed that one of those two people have a good hand, and Big #1 has made a WEAK BET. It was OBVIOUS he was stealing the moment I put his chips in. He had a look of terror on his face. You didn't need to see him to figure out this bet was weak.

Compare this to our analysis of Al's bustout with QQ not so long ago, when Al and I both analyzed his opponent to have KK, Al just a second too late to avoid making the call. There is a clear distinction between the "I dare you to call" all-in and the "I'm fed up with losing hands" all-in. I recall such an all-in from a player at my prior table earlier in the game yesterday. He had come to my table, a table of tighter, more solid players (a bit ABC, and exploitable, but a strong table) with a very big stack. No matter what he did, he couldn't seem to win a hand. It had hurt further that he had been caught raising in early position with a weak sooted Ace early at the table, damaging his image. His raises kept getting action, and he kept missing flops and being outplayed postflop. He was a very average stack quite soon.

When he opened the pot with 3x the blind and QK spades, he got a raise and a call, and, clearly exasperated, went all in. He got two callers, one was AK, the other a desperation J9. He got very lucky J 9 on the flop, (lucky?) and 10 on the river to catch a straight and suck out both the main and side pots.

Get to know the look of the frustrated player pushing all in.

I had to criticize Big #1 for his bonehead play. This is the final 20, and people make moves. He was guaranteed one caller, and like my last example, could have gotten two. 44 is 56% to win against ANY RANDOM HAND (including A-5 2, A-5 3 A-5 4, 2 3, 3 3, 2 2 a large number of hands it dominates) but down to a pure coin flip against two overcards, and in 18% territory against another PP. Again, the RANGE OF HANDS 44 will be up against here, is 50% likely a coinflip, and 50% likely a better PP. Our man had 34% chance to win the pot, since he had NO CHANCE of stealing preflop. But he thought he had a "legitimate hand", he whined against the fury of my scorn.

Big #1 will limp into the final table with 9000 chips and walk into my KK in the SB with Q 10 and bust out 9th.

You can play like Al, or play like the PokerMonster, but either way, the key to getting to the final table is to THINK THROUGH ALL MOVES and PICK YOUR SPOTS. If you are the first to act, bet according to the chip stacks of those in front of you and your goal, whether it be stealing or looking for action. If a raise comes to you and you see good looking cards, use the information weapons at your disposal to assess your situation. Twice at the final table yesterday, I sat in the BB against a raise and a call, looked down at something playable QK and KJ, and simply had to lay down and let the to players duke it out. Both times I would have been dominated had I played.

If we go back to my AJ double up, since I knew my opponent was unsure, I threw in a little speech about my "lucky hand", which sounds like I was warning him to off to fold, like In didn't want a call. I was, and that was what was so deceptive. I knew I was ahead because of his actions, and enticed the call expecting I had him dominated, and was close to right. Perhaps my hand was "lucky" because it needed a lucky flop, or perhaps it was a big PP which had a knack for attracting action and holding up, like QQ. I happen to have a whole range of "lucky hands", after all, it simply happens that my AJ has the additional cache of busting KK and AK in 30% situations. I wanted a call here, as I liked my odds of getting the double up I knew I needed for the final table.

And when the tournament director gave me credit for my consistency in reaching deep into final tables as I walked to the cashier to claim my prize, I can tell you it is the strength of my play in these crucial times leading up to that final table which have led to these results. Part of this is simply the understanding that comes with experience with a particular format of a tournament, to know exactly where I am at at any given time in the game, what I need to do next, and when I need to do it. Add to this finding the players and situations to exploit to get it done, and, as long as my head is in the game, and I avoid major suckouts, I get it done.

Okay, we took a step back, so now a step forward. We've made it to the final. Now fastforward. I have already blogged talked about early final table play. To summarize my advice: pick your spots while the short stacks get picked off, just like along the road to the final table, the difference being the table is big again until these players are out and hand quality has to be premium to very good in likely showdown situations. Let's now put us at my final table yesterday, down to 6 players.

Whether the final table is the more-action oriented casino weekly with the blinds and antes getting pricey, or the typical on line MTT with less pressure, there is now a lull, a brief time where chip stacks are relatively even, and everyone can afford the blinds and antes.

There is usually one or two bigger stacks and then the balance of stacks will be about the same. In the typical $100+9 online game with 100+ players and 2500 in starting chips, and this similar casino game, the decent stacks are now in the 30,000 to 40,000 range, a big stack may have 60,000 or more. At the casino, we are probably at 1000/2000 or 1500/3000 levels at this point. The average stack is only 10 x to 15 x the BB, but still can afford to fold that BB. Online, the level may be at 600/1200 or 800/1600, and we of course will see more hands between level increases in the online game, especially since we are 6 handed and the computer reshuffles a new hand in 3 seconds not 30. If you get a quality live dealer, that may be 20 seconds, and we had a great one last night, but the pace remains incomparable. You will simply have fewer hands to play in this time between 6 remaining and 4 in a live game while the level increases push at the same time against keeping all 6 alive. In either game, however, that slow down time is there, and is there to be exploited.

In this lull period, pots will shrink in size. Limp-ins and modest raises will be more common than all-in moves. SB and BB will often be heads up in unraised pots playing trash against trash.

In spite of the sudden relaxation of the game, this is both a fun time and a crucial time. If I am a big stack, I want to manage the smaller stacks and my own stack. If I just play tight and preserve my stack, others will catch up. If I am in the middle, I want to get big without getting into trouble.

Because we are now 6, 5, 4 handed, SB and BB come around quickly, and no one is going to give you action for a big pot when you have QQ anyway, You have to play your best poker here. Sorry Al, better get that stamina up so you are fresh for the final 6 next Monday.

All your opponents are good players, they deserve your respect. All have the same goal, to get someone else eliminated before them. Accumulating chips is a better strategy than simply being blinded and anted off while others play. As I discussed in my review of several final tables recently, the fatigue factor, present online as well, is huge live. Poker faces disappear, and if you are alert, you will be able to notice that they can't hide their fear or disappointment in their cards or the flop, or confidence, as well as before.

Lets also keep in mind that this lull in tournament pressure will not last forever. At the casino, we will be bank under the pressure of the blinds and antes after 20 minutes of this maybe 30, amounting to 12 to 18 hands, where you will be BB 3 times or likely more given that others will be eliminated. In the on-line game, the pressure is different. You have to convince your opponents to pay off worthwhile pots.

Either way, this amounts to two things: loosening up your starting hand requirements, playing more pots, seeing more flops, and playing solid trapping plays when you catch big flops and solid betting plays when you see an opportunity to take a pot down with weak cards or a weak flop yourself. This time of the tournament is the very element of the game of poker. Preflop and post flop decision making, and making the plays which count. It is real easy to call an all-in with KK. It is harder to play KK in a limped in pot and trap for value while protecting it too. Time to play your complete game. THIS is the time when image will come into play when you need a big laydown to survive a bluff for a pot you must win, when your poker face must be inscrutable, when you can munch on your fries non-nonchalantly while your opponent is in the tank sweating and wringing his hands over your bet, or go into acting mode to sell weakness to add value to your huge flop. In other words, all of the skills I have already discussed at length in prior blogs, playing out of position, playing out of the blinds, reads, tells, disguises, etc. have to be available to succeed at this point in the game, as opposed to merely treading water or watching your stack disappear through mistakes.

My experience playing in 10 and 6 seat SNGs, and playing the 6-8 player home game, which is a short stacked game, has been my best training ground for playing in this particular portion of the final table.

Here, not only am I looking to play my often discussed "mixed paint" and small PP's, usually on raises, but I want to mix my play up, raising with odd hands and limping with big ones. By big ones, I am talking about PPs, not big aces. You can trap in a small pot with a big BB, but you have to raise a decent ace or decent mixed paint, just so the SB and BB don't get a cheap look at a flop and catch something underneath. AJ has more value as a steal or a call in position a raised pot, than trying to trap with it in a small one. I have seen people play AK traps here, but I'm not fond of losing with AK to 10 7 which never would have seen a flop if I'd protected my hand.

In addition, I am going to play a lot more hands here. K- sooted and Q - sooted with kickers 7 and above will be played. I am back to interesting cards, like 10 9 sooted or J 9 or 7 8, hands I haven't been able to play since crisis time started. I want to see a flop with these hands, cheaply or for a price I can control, and with position on likely opponents.

I will feel more comfortable limping these hands in and playing against the blinds because these hands operate similarly to BB specials. They connect into medium flops, and often for big draws or made hands, which someone with middle or top pair from a blind might bet into. They can be played against modest raises when you have the chips to call, since, depending on the player, whom you should know real well by now, may very well be playing as I suggested, raising high cards while trapping with PPs, allowing you to see flop which may be much more friendly to your middle connected and semi-connected cards than AQ for the former, and letting you play a drawing hand capable of beating AA or KK trying to slow play trap for the latter.

To practice with these hands and this style or more open, creative play, the most obvious opportunity is the 6 man SNG online. I find the $10 games to offer up a nice range of decent short table opponents, and the turbo games (5 minute levels) to best simulate short final table pressure. A $5 SNG is a cheap place to start to build up the more creative side of your short-handed game with lesser opponents, but you will learn nothing playing cheaper except that you don't enjoy playing with rookies.

Okay, its a long blog, and this is only an introduction to this portion of the final table. Tomorrow is another day. And Saturday is another tournament. And open, creative, short table play is probably a book unto itself.

And the Lady of Luck is checking the time, sitting in the passenger seat of my car with the engine running, all dressed up with someplace to go, while I chat with you guys....

A quick note while I am away

Hey all, or some, or none! My last blog seems to leave you hanging on a line, and then life intervened. The Poker Monster is yet to turn pro. I has a day job, and it's occupied too much of my time lately. Not enough poker for me, although I do promote a little balance in my life. There are other things like than work, poker, and blogging...

So I'm making excuses while promising to do some blogging this week to talk more about either the last big tourney (subtitled how I went from suckout to big stack bully and back down to earth in 5 short hours) or more final table discussion, or both.

In the meantime, a question to my readers. I have found, as a matter of routine, that following a very big payday such as the $4000 made in two days 2 weeks ago, that I become a bad beat magnet for some time after. I once suffered a full month of putting my chips in with the best and seeing river after river catch lucky.

This past week it was flopping a set of 10s calling a small raise with 10 10, A high, and seeing my opponent cash in-all in catching one of 4 Queens to river a straight, yesterday it was slow-trapping AA from UTG against AK on a K 8 8 flop, knowing I was still good on the turn card J, and then having to slow down and pay a value bet of 500 on the river K to make his 2 outer full house to cripple my stack, on only the second hand I'd played post flop, and knowing that any other card on the river would have allowed me to trap him for a double up....

Sigh. Bad beat stories are not for sharing, and I WON'T SHARE my story about how my quad Aces got beat by a Royal flush once, but I do ask of you all....any one else share this experience of a big win/bad beat dry spell. We are all looking for the ghosts in the machine, after all, that unifying theory of poker which explains the universe...I invite your comments.

That Lady of Luck, until then, remains a pleasant if capricious enigma.

PM

Another Interlude: Big Tournament and Small Tournament Stories: Bluffs, Mistakes, Suckouts, Big Stack Glory....and more? We'll see.

Hello, to both my small loyal following and any lucky or unlucky fool who has stumbled upon me. I refrained from wasting my poker stories in the casino bathroom tonight. You are the beneficiary of my restraint.

Yes, I busted out early tonight. Some crackerjack thinks its a smart thing to do to limp AA UTG with blinds of 50/100. To a minraise of 200, I decide to push around the raising short stack when I wake up in the SB with 10 10. To protect in, I go all in assuming the BB and the limper can't call 3500 chips. Eventually, I will have to push with A high UTG again, and fall to quad 7's in a otherwise happy 3-pot. The minraise trap with AA UTG works well at an aggressive table in crisis time, but is a sure way to get a 5 way pot out of position on a scary board in the first hour. I don't know how many times AA has in fact fallen to a BB special 2 pair by limping in and getting no raises. Did someone at the back of the room say "every time"? I think so. You can't remotely know where you stand post flop letting two random cards see a flop. You want to rely on 3 random cards on the flop, not fear them. Gah. See earlier blogs on BB specials. Terrible play got rewarded.

Overplay 10 10? Push early with A high UTG short stacked and fall to a monster hand in a three-way pot? Is there an echo here? Oh yeah, that was my fate on Saturday. But that was after over 7 hours of poker, not one, and there is a lot to tell and a lot for us both to learn from. I learn a lot by reviewing and reliving my war stories, and if you get something out of it too, fantastic. Bad poker stories are pretty boring, except to the addicted.

There were three young buddies at my table this evening all live MTT newbies. Two made some mistakes and busted out early, but the third got short stacked, and then settled down. First live tourney for all three, and for I know, the last short stacked, who pushed his chips in with AQ diamonds on a 10 high 2 D flop, got called loose by AQ off suit, and freerolled the 3 of diamonds on the turn to chip up, is still sitting at the table now and I'm chatting with you guys. I could tell from the three of them that he was the most ready. One of them overplayed 10J, caught a 10 high flop, and paid off a very well handled short stack holding KK, to go short and out. Amigo 3 seemed to have the concept of the bet preflop which leaves enough in the stack for
a credible bet postflop.

Amigo #1 got busted first, but had the sense to glom onto me and ask questions. This blog really is for you guys, who play with your buddies, play online, see live tournaments on TV, and want to, but don't know how to, make the transition. When I played my first live tournament a few months ago (has it really been just a few months?) I knew I had the math and the understanding of the game to do well, but, of course, my live play reading skills were in infancy and my abilities to disguise big preflop or post flop hands to maximize value or to sell a hand and make a huge bluff or semi-bluff pay off were not there.

PokerMonster does not bluff very often. I do not consider a good read of weakness followed by a correct bet that correctly matches the point where your opponent can't call, without making so large a bet that it is suspicious or so small it must be called, a "bluff". It is as legitimate a poker play as slowplaying a monster flop. Betting correctly is betting correctly, whether you hold the goods or not. Period. Sklansky and Miller's book on poker theory may be a cash-based theory book, but it is all about the math behind the correct bet. Slide that "pot odds" and EV based math into the additional factors in play in a tournament, and you have it made.

As an example, let's say I have AK, the flop comes K 8 9 two diamonds, I am not sooted, it is early in the tournament, the price preflop was only 10% of two equal stacks, 150 each, and I am reasonably sure the player, who I have yet to fully figure out, quite possibly called my initial small raise with a decent suited Ace. I am concerned about the flush draw, but I would also like to see some additional payment, as well as additional assurance I have someone on the hand I suspect. A little more money for the short term, a little information for the long term.

If I, as first to act into a 300 pot, make a 200 bet, I am offering my opponent a price of 200 to make 500, or roughly the same odds as him MAKING THE FLUSH BY THE FLOP. In a cash game, that is an easy call. In a tournament with starting chips of 1500, I have my man on the brink of calling and folding. Depending on the chip depth in the tournament and the size of the buy in, the opponent with the flush draw could (if very tight) fold, could (if he likes to double early, float, semi-bluff, or otherwise gamble ) raise me, perhaps all in, or (most cases) call. If we are in a 2500 chip game, the correct play is always to call, as the price is low enough to be basically risk-free in the long term game. 2150 left offers me plenty more flops with leisurely levels and cheap blinds. Had I made a 400 bet in a 1500 game or a 500 bet in a 2500 game, those bets are a pretty big commitment for anyone playing anything with a hefty buy-in, and could induce a flush draw gamble in a lower priced game.

What is interesting here is that a very good player with Ace-diamonds in position could still push that flush draw depending on where he thinks he is in the hand. That very good player will read, from my various post flop bet options:

• 200: my opponent is either unsure of himself, making a continuation bet, or caught a huge flop (KK hits set) and is betting for value, and may not realize he just offered me the correct odds to call my monster draw to the nuts;
• 300: (bet pot button on line). This is an amateur bet by an amateur player. He may or may not have caught the flop, and if he did he has a pair only.
• 400 or 500: My opponent caught his K, and it trying to take the pot down right now. He is not willing to gamble with the prospect of a flush beating his AK or AA. What he has is obvious. I am beat now.
• A check on the flop? No way do I offer a free card here without any information back to see where I stand. K high no draw? Sure, I can check trap post flop.
  

That player will respond to these bets with the following variety of moves:

• 200: No matter what he has, he is offering me the right odds to beat him. I don't have enough information to know if he has nothing, top pair, or a set. IF I put him on a continuation bet (and both live and online there are serious tells available), I may just push the envelope with a bet which commits us both to the pot if he calls. IF I am at all unsure I just call.
• 300: Weak bet. Amateur player. He will not get away from his AK if he has it. Not enough information to know whether I have him beat already or whether I am 35% through 5. I am inclined call and see if he slows down on the turn, and this will dictate my next move.
• 400 or 500: How did he know I had two diamonds? If I feel lucky, lets rumble! If not, I fold.
• no way I check here, but if I did, it would because I expect my opponent to stab at the pot, and would do so to check-raise, not float call. If I attempt to represent the flush draw when my opponent has the flush draw, he will see right through me and take the opportunity to check-check to the river as I foolishly attempt to trap. With a flush draw in position, the free card is often the best move. Sklansky and Miller discuss this from a scrictly mathematical perspective in terms of a better positive EV. To hell with EV values and explaining that cash-game gobbledy-gook mumbo-jumbo here, they just mean you will more likely make more money hitting that draw later than bluffing at a small pot now in the long run based on pure probability. I add to that dry concept the additional effect that checking back offers me as the UTG AK no information to assess where I stand on the turn card. This is particularly so if a 10 high flush draw sees the K of diamonds on the turn, or my K high hits the A of diamonds (QJ diamonds being a legitimate in-position preflop call here as well). With AK out of position and blind to my opponent, I may bet the turn and bet the flop and not figure out how dead and stupid I am until I am raised for value or all in on the river. The check on the flop into the potential flush draw simply concedes all the power in the hand to the player with position. He can now REPRESENT the flush draw if it hits and he doesn't have it or represent something else when weakness is exposed.
  

Let me give you an example of s similar hand where a check conceded the power in the hand to me.

We are midstage in the weekly Monday game 300/600, and the button elects to limp as first in the pot, the SB calls and I, in the BB with 63 diamonds, check to see a free flop.

The flop is A diamond diamond. I have the flush draw and from the BB my special is completely disguised. I can check here and have nothing, a draw, or a monster BB special. When the SB checks, so do I and so does the button. I am delighted by the free card.

The turn is a black 7, SB checks, I check, button minbets 600. SB folds I make the cheap call.

The river is another black 7, there is almost 4000 in the pot, and my opponent looked perplexed by my call. He has no idea where he stands, so I elect to represent the 7 and push all-in for 6500 chips. He simply can't call and will show A5 hearts. I will muck and rake. I can make that representation because my call was as consistent with someone who thought his 7 might be good as the draw I was trying to hit, and the failure to bet on the flop allowed me to fully disguise my BB special.

As you can see, the value bet of 200, because it confuses a good opponent as to whether I am weak or strong (set vs continuation bet), and his best response tends to give away his hand, particularly if there is a pause to reflect on my bet. Beware, however, of the quick smooth call. That is not a flush draw. That could very well be a set. One of my poor rookies kept bluffing his A5 against a 10 7 7 flop through the river from the SB position and paid off 1000 chips to A7 smooth calling him.

The top pair checker in my example, in trying to "trap" with his weak ace, instead surrendered the lead, indeed his entire soul, to me. Ace high, SB and BB check to my limp, I BET to end the pot whether I have that A or not. Top pair is just too weak to let an opponent catch up.

With a value/blocking/information bet if 200, the information offered by the most likely response with the nut flush draw, a call, gives me the read which dictates my next move. This, subject to the pause test, which again is no guarantee. So much of this advice is player specific, and under no circumstances am I advocating following my "rules" like a puppet instead of keeping your head alive and in the game. If and when I am sure my opponent is drawing flush, I have just squeezed 350 of his chips in on what is really an 18% chance to beat me for the next turn. I need these extra chips, early and really can afford both the 18% risk and to fold if the next card should be a diamond, because I will already know I am very likely beat if it comes. The whole betting behaviour determines my read, not just whether he called or not.

Let's reverse this and put us in the driver's seat, first to act in a pot we raised, but this time we are holding the AQ diamonds. I have already told you what each of the above bets represent, but here we have to decide either how to win the pot on a semi-bluff, control the situation to get to the river nuts, or, as I did with the runner runner 7's find another way to pull the trigger correctly and win the pot.

What I don't recommend here is checking into the caller intending to check-call float to victory. Actually I do to a point, but I do like to bet my flush draws, especially if the board was unlikely to assist my opponent, like the 10 high draw our last of three new amigos doubled up with today. The check-call says "I have a flush draw" a little too much, killing your action if the turn card makes the flush and killing your investment when it doesn't. If the turn is bad for you, if you check he pushes you out with a bet he know you can't call with 18% and one card left if he has the hand. Of course, if he checks back, he may have been just bluffing the flop and you get either a diamond on the river of a chance to represent like you had it all along if the river hits you another way or could not have helped him.

I don't like the check simply because we do not have the information to KNOW whether a check-call is the right move until he responds to our check. If the game is live, and you have a tell to work with, a sneaky check followed by a suspicious bet that suggests strongly uncertainty in your opponent, may in fact provoke a check-raise semibluff from you that might have achieved both extra money in the pot and an opportunity to take the pot down. That check raise is tough though. At the very least, you have serious outs if called. These are moves that I have done and will still do. It is best if you have already done a good check raise move in the tournament, especially if you were trapping. See earlier blogs on play out of position for more details.

I find the SAFER and MORE EFFECTIVE move is to bet into the man in position. But how much? Keep in mind that in this scenario YOU have JUST A DRAW and you have no idea where you stand in the hand. You need information, you need to disguise the true nature of your hand, and you, above all else want to win the pot, not stumble into a big mistake. It is early, your opponent just called your initial raise, and he could have ANYTHING.

Obviously the BIG BET (400 or 500 or similar amounts which have now committed a 1/3 of your stack to the pot) can and will be raised all-in by a big flop hitter or overpair, committing you to a choice between 35% of your stack given up or 35% to win big, assuming he holds top pair only. On the other hand, a VERY GOOD player who has caught a set may just call you, because you sure haven't represented a flush draw here, you've represented AK or AA protecting itself, and the set WILL PAY OFF the misdirected flush. You may even be able to check check a bad turn card and see a free river simply because his JUST CALL has given away his hand. IT IS TOO BIG A BET TO JUST CALL WITH A FLUSH DRAW so he does not represent a flush draw with the smooth call. If you check the turn he MAY EVEN VALUE BET the turn (like 200 or 250) now offering you fantastic odds, given how deeply committed you are already. Well, pretty good odds. With 4 cards on the felt, only two diamonds, you have 2 dead diamonds which could pair the board and make his obvious full house. In fact, that big bet will more than likely expose the reality of you running into a monster flop pretty quick, like my all in with 10 10 exposed the AA without needing him to turn over his cards today, but this is a very expensive mistake.

Let's keep in mind that the is only 11% chance your opponent has FLOPPED A SET, but that big bet is designed to PUSH OUT an opponent, not improve value, so you wind up winning a small pot, overcommitted to a reraise if your opponent has AK, and down to 25% with two to go if your opponent has a small PP which flopped the set. While those possibilities are out there and seem unlikely, the problem is that the "just caller" pre-flop can easily have AK, K high paint sooted, or that small PP we all like to see flops with and catch that 11% for the big pot, particularly in position.

We are back to the "correct odds" bet of 200. The one designed to confuse the enemy. What you are doing is a "blocking bet", which Miller and Sklansky describe but seem to fail to really enunciate its good use. A VERY TYPICAL blocking bet is the weak min-bet right off the flop. You see this weak play all the time online. I only see oldschoolers do it live. I WILL DO IT sometimes when I have flopped a set in poor position in a limped in pot, when my set is perfectly safe, just to see if it's weakness will attract either a multitude of overcard drawers or a raise, but I hate it. I can't make a real bet and the check call or raise gives my hand away. GAH. It usually just improves a small pot to a slightly less small pot.

200, good blocking bet. WHEN IT IS NOT OBVIOUSLY A BLOCKING BET. This is the irony of the play. You are MAKING A BLOCKING BET TO DISGUISE IT AS A VALUE BET IN ORDER TO PROTECT ITS VALUE AS A BLOCKING BET. By disguising the blocking bet so, you manage the price of the next card while representing that you have something, but not what it is, and, hopefully, not giving away the fact that you are blocking the flush draw. It will take an experienced player to be confused by the blocking bet. Mr. Phil Gordon Reader will just raise with top pair. He is too afraid of the flush draw ghost not to protect his AK. This is why I use the VALUE BET DISGUISED AS A BLOCKING BET to get paid on a flopped set, particularly when I am out of position, and have my ABC opponent on a hand, whether it is an overpair against a small flop or the flop hit a big card like an A and PP hit a very innoculous set. This bet may very well induce the ABC player to play "chase the ace" and see the next card cheap too.

Obviously the response to the blocking bet will provide you with the information you need. Even the VERY GOOD PLAYER should be confused by the blocking bet. In fact, the ABC player with AK will just read it for what it REALLY IS, weakness, and push. I find that the 2/3 small pot blocking bet is more used and more effective live than online, which seems to either do that weakass minbet garbage or not at all.

What you really want is to induce the floater to float along while you either fish to the nuts, find the opening to bust his bluff back, or get paid on hand you know he has beat. The bet you choose is based on your goals, of course, but flush draw control is best done with effective bet management and the best way to control the behavior of your opponent is to confuse him and cast doubt as to where he stands in the hand.

Mixing up the play adds to the confusion. The same post-flop bet you used to get paid in full on a flopped set 12 hands earlier will put anyone in the pot with you on yellow alert, which is of course the goal to manage your draw and maximize the opportunity to win the biggest pot possible with or without hitting that nut draw.

Okay, the theory lesson is over. Thank god! Lets put some of this into practice.

Yay! (or yawn) Real Poker Stories!

The Saturday tournament is a format I have played and talked about before 10,000 starting chips, 30 minute levels starting at 25/50. A format designed to give all players a lot of time to make their stacks for their $300+30 investment. There are 250 players, and, as usual, play is tight.

Early on, I have played a semi-loose preflop game, calling modest raises with drawable hands, but catching no flops, and losing about 1,000 chips. I then get a small but blow limping in A10 for 100, seeing a A -K _J flop, and putting in about 1300 more calling a min check-raise from my initial 400 flop bet, a 500 turn bet, and check checking the river to see that my man out of position had limped in AK. I had been suspicious enough of the check min-raise to realize I may be drawing for the Q. Ouch, but I'm not dead, just down to 7500 chips, and annoyed because the play is cautious, the pots small, and just grinding back to 10,000 will be a chore.

To add to this frustration, the next pot I played, I raised AK UTG, got 4 callers, including the BB, saw a K Q 9 flop two clubs, and pushed all in against the BB's post flop bet of 1500 (very much needing to protect against a draw given that I had 1500 in added value to the 1600 pot, a big stack left to push with, and 2 more players to get past) to get called by the BB, also holding AK, splitting the pot to a meager payoff of 700 chips profit. Ugh.

Around this time, a player about 5 seats to my left who has been confidently throwing larger chunks of his stack around than the table average and inducing folds for moderate pots makes a critical mistake which I will later exploit.

This player looks like Beaver Cleaver just turned 40. He projects a straightforward image. He blows it on this hand. He has position on a UTG raiser and simply calls. The flop is K high, relatively high cards, two diamonds. The UTG makes a feeler bet, and Beaver makes the call. The turn is another diamond, and UTG makes a weak bet, Beaver makes a weak raise, and UTG calls. The final card is another diamond, and UTG is clearly pissed off, and just checks.

Here's the critical mistake. Instead of the value bet that I KNOW UTG can't call on the 4 flushed board, Beaver proudly announces "I have the flush!" and even more proudly shows his winning hand...6 of diamonds, 7 of hearts. No, not A 6 diamonds, 7 high off soot. Beaver had been floating through the whole hand with no pair, and runner runner dirt-weak flush draw.

That's only the first half of the mistake. Raking in a pretty damn big pot, he decides to brag to the whole table about what a brilliant player he thinks he is. He's just so damn full of himself. His bizarre ego requires the whole table to acknowledge his outplay. He not only exposes himself as a floater, but also an idiot who thinks he's a savant.

If I am that overstretched but caught my flush, have position, and see that my opponent screwed up a value bet slow play and is disgusted with the river card counterfeiting his hand, I make the bet he can't call and muck and rake. This is why I only prefer to semi-bluff than bluff, so I can not be ashamed of my showdown with I hit if I have to show it down.

He is not ashamed. He has brazenly brayed to the table. What the hell do you get when you cross a beaver with a donkey? This guy, I guess. Which one was his mother?

Soon after this our Beaver/Donkey will suckout lucky against a much better player for another big pot.

Let me talk about this player. My very first weekly MTT, this player was at my starting, late, and final table. A semi-loose player who plays excellent post-flop poker, and can make a huge call with a weak Ace post-flop. A very good player who needs some excess chips to play his game. He has a Russian hook to his nose and a vague accent so let's call him Czar Nick. Czar Nick took down the first weekly I played, and always had the big stack. Every time I see him at the casino, cash or tourneys, he has a big stack.

This time the whole table seemed to see him coming and he is getting played back at over and over and over and losing chips 1000 at a time. Beaver/Donkey will suck out on him for 1/2 of his last 5000 in this handm raising on the cutoff to open the pot to Czar Nick, who makes the call.

On a Q 2 2 flop, Czar Nick will bet the flop and Beaver/Donkey will float the call. With a 4 on the turn the same will happen, to the tune of 1500 of Czar Nick's chips committed to the river, another 2. Czar Nick checks, Beaver/Donkey value bets 1000, and the frustrated Czar Nick makes the call. Beaver/Donkey oh so proudly displays Q3 clubs for the full house, and a despondent Czar Nick will muck what was most likely 10 10 or a similar PP.

Beaver/Donkey chipped up, glowing with the confidence only stupidity along with a borderline personality disorder can bring. Czar Nick is on tilt, and I get to carve a chunk out of both of them, starting with the Czaz, when the button comes back the Czar two hands later.

The sneaky bastard who slow played AK raises to 500 UTG, and I make the call in the middle with KQ clubs. Not the best hand in a raised pot, but I have position on the raiser and some urgency and a good price to see the right flop. Czar Nick, with position and on tilt, makes the call. I am not concerned with Nick because he is on tilt and desperate to make a pot.

The flop is J 10 4 one club two spades, giving me the straight draw and overcards. The Sneak checks and I check, and Czar Nick throws his last 1850 at the 1725 pot. I like this, because it was enough to induce the Sneak to fold gave me two things: knowledge that Czar Nick caught a pair only and I have a great price to call what I am sure are two overcards and a straight draw, or 14 outs, to win a pot which improves my fortunes at a price I can live with if I don't. If we give the Czar some outs to improve should I catch a pair, it is basically a coin flip with 2 to go.

See my very early blogs on monster draws for great detail on the subject of odds to win these draws. Bottom line is I simply can't lay down such a sweet draw for a closed pot and such terrific pot and implied odds. I can't give up the opportunity to win the pot I know I need, so I call.

Czar had 10 8 off suit, and I couldn't ask for better, AJ still gives me great odds (see the prior blogs) but with any A, K, Q, or 9 all good and ALL LIVE! I river the A for the stylish bust, and secretly feel both good and bad. I enjoy playing hands with the Czar, but I have kicked a dangerous player to the curb while demonstrating superior poker savvy to him and the rest of the table which may tilt the scales next time we are at a table together. Excuse me while I kiss the sky.

I had given the Czar too much respect the first encounter. I was cautious enough against his big stack to push all in with AA on a 7 8 8 flop instead of slow trapping him on one hand early, and let him outplay me on a limped pot when the flop hit 10 7 7 two clubs, I have the J9 clubs for the straight flush draw, and just called each bet flop and turn to his bets just to miss the river and be bet out, I would show my monster draw and he would show me his J9 off suit. We would laugh about it, but I lost 10,000 chips on the approach to the final table, limiting my resources to a short stack at the final to finish 5th and watch him take it down.

Knowledge is power and revenge is sweet. The table may very well be turned between me and the Czar. His skill was being very difficult to put on a hand. Seeing him being outplayed and frustrated is very powerful information.

Okay, enough about Czar Nick. The Beaver/Donkey is next.

Anytime you can find a player to target for chips in a tournament (see the Donkey to my Right blog) is WONDERFUL.

It is not long after adios to the Czar that I wake up early to see QQ and raise to 400: the blinds remain 75/150. I am very pleased to see Beaver make the call, less pleased to see an A 3 2 flop.

I check to the Beaver. The Beaver checks back.

The turn is another 3. I decide to test the waters, and bet 1000, the size of the pot. Beaver/Donkey elects to minraise to 2000. Oh Please Lady of Luck do not let this donkey suck out on me too! I scream silently, but there is no way I am going to let this fool outplay me holding QQ just because of this flop.

The river is garbage, like a 7 or something, and I check. Beaver bets 2500. I don't really know if I am simply pissed off, have a read, maybe from the checked flop, or just refuse to give this guy credit for anything other than 7J. "I just can't put you on an Ace" I say as I make the call, show the QQ, force a disgusted muck, and look like a hero to my fellow mumblers at the other end of the table. Lets just say I had no spidey sense tingling me to trouble, just a gut that said don't lay down to this braying, big eared, bucktoothed, paddle-tailed freak of nature.

"Easiest pot I ever took down," I choose to brag, Beaver/Donkey style, but it wasn't. I can't put him on a hand, but I can't put him on an ace when he is simply playing his float pattern predictably on me too.

This hand helped define my table image, and put Beaver/Donkey on semitilt. With an ordinary stack, his style exposed to the table, and a COMPLETE INCAPACITY TO SHIFT GEARS, his opponents know exactly when to push back and force him to fold. 3 hands, and not very long between them, later, or Beaver/Donkey is done, and I broke the donkey's back.

That 2500 bet wasn't a bad bet mind you. For him, he was forcing me into one of those threshold calls I was talking about at the beginning. For, assuming I was certain I had him, I really couldn't have extracted more. A minraise probably induces the fold, as does an all in, and effectively the 2500 bet makes a good stab and a nice pot without putting the rest of his stack at risk. But I really got much better overall value to my own reputation as well as destruction to his by calling and showing QQ on an A high board and forcing his muck. If I was Beaver, and had a lower PP there, I probably show my hand so I can at least save some face that I thought my opponent had no ace and missed the flop, I suppose, but with no draw on the board for me to credibly represent, and I know he had far less than a PP, he really was hung by his own predictability. There were only two kinds of hands I could have had, both of which are in trouble on that flop out of position, the good PP and the suspect A high. If he said he thought his 99 was good, nobody would believe him and those who did would think he's a rank amateur used to playing $5 games online.

Beaver/Donkey is probably a Greg Raymer fan. Mr. Raymer bluffed his way to a WSOP bracelet, but watch him play on the PPT and see how his bluffing floating style fails against a table of experienced pros and you get my point. I'm a Gus Hanson fan. Truly unpredictable play which disguises and masks and confuses. He's too crazy for me, but I am experimenting with some more aggressive play while still freerolling from last week.

Okay, how to bluff and how to bust the bluff....introductory....its late, and it was a long tournament, so this will continue soon.

When the Lady of Luck comes in riding a donkey, offer her a ride.

The Real Chapter IX: a final table from opening hand to final hand

I have spoken on early final table play, I have alluded to middle play, and a full analysis of final table play really will require more than this blog, as lengthy as it might become, but I can at least introduce some "conventional" approaches to final table play and, of course, some of the concepts of how PokerMonster explodes the conventional approaches, in this case, to heads up victory.

(Finally! I was one hungry monster, being the bride's maid two weeks straight in August. C is for Cookie, that's good enough for me, but 1st buys a LOT MORE COOKIES!!!!!!!!!!).

The bubble ended just at the end of the level, so we get a little break and a fresh 1000/2000/300 level to start. I get 4th position and have 22000 chips for an average stack. Our current chip leaders include Phil Ivory, whose knockout with AA to burst the bubble chipped him up around 40,000, and another player named Terry who had similarly sucked a player in holding AA at the same table.

Let's talk about Terry a bit. Terry is a solid player, hard to put him on a hand, very aggressive. We have been at tables before. He can bet large and you simply won't know who's in charge.

ABBA has made it with a modest 17,000 stack. There are a few others with average chips, and your standard 3 short stacks.

Here is one key difference between the casino game and the online $100+9. With an average stack of 20000 to 25000, depending on the number of starting players, and typical starting level of 1000/2000, the leisurely blinds and relative resulting conservative play of my online fave usually means that the bubble fell on merit, two big hands racing, rather than mere desperation. There is, as a result, a typical starting level more like 500/1000, and with the resulting relative leisurely pace of the level raises, there is more time to find a hand online. Even a bigger online tourney with a lower buy in and the typical 1500 starting chips/12 minute levels
will usually see a final table more in range of an average stack at 20x rather than the 10x the BB we see at the casino. As a result, the casino final is an action table, and will complete within 50-60 hands unlike the 100-180 hands I've experienced online.

We have also seen PokerMonster catch large early at the casino final table as a matter of course, and this will be no exception. I have the honour of busting out three of the first four. #1 went out in the second hand after folding from the BB in hope two other all-ins would land him in 9th, but the shorter stack doubled, and the SB killed #1 next hand.

My starting position is poor, and I have the BB on hand 3, but I have been getting nice hands in the blinds, and this is no exception. Short stack #2, a nice lady named Karen who I nicknamed "chip and a chair" just before her last desperate double up with nothing more than the BB in the BB, has put her 4200 chips in early, and Phil Ivory, who is now across from the table from me, simply calls. Play folds to me and I look down at JJ.

There are two schools of thought here. Slow play and check down to ensure #9 hits the rail, but I have a nice hand here, I think Phil's mere call is a weak call with a modest hand like a small PP, and I would like to win this pot, TYVM. I push all-in once again on Phil's (coincidental) 4200 investment (you will recall its his favorite stealing price). He folds pretty quickly, and seems at this time a little put off by my pushing him around, but it is clear I had the better hand to show down with here, and JJ survives Lady Chip N' Chair's AQ though the river for a nice starting pot of 12000 plus recovery of my BB.

Play will come around eventually until again I am one ahead of UTG when short stack #3, a chubby, ugly, bearded, overly talkative guy who had been at the table with ABBA and I, and was consistently raising to open with any A in any position, and then showing his one ace, puts his 15000 in UTG. I wake up to AJ spades and announce "I'm over the top", and push my chips in.

I can make this move quickly and with certainty in such early position because:

• I have played with all these players at both tables leading to the final and they know I will push with a legitimate hand, and with hand I know is ahead. It will take a very strong call to call me;
• UTG almost certainly has a weak ace, and I have a strong ace. A better ace at this table is unlikely, AA much more unlikely, and since I have shown off QQ so many times, JJ might even fold;
• The rest of the table is happy to see either UTG bust out resulting in a move up in the money, or a very good and aggressive player (that's me) get a big chunk knocked out of him while chipping up a clearly weaker player.
  
• As a result of my knowledge, I can make this move with the confidence necessary to scare off even JJ. QQ might very well come a-calling, but hey, I'm sooted.
  

Sure enough, no callers, and A6 diamonds can't catch the suckout. The monster is now in the lead with 52,000.00.

Shortly after this, in fact when I am next on the button, our young Phil Ivory, UTG, raises to 6000. And he has a familiar look on his face. I know that look. He has K's in his eyes. The field folds to me, and I wake up, with, blessed saints! Rockets in the Pockets!

I am certain Phil has KK, because there was a look of disappointment with each fold, and anticipation when I reach for chips. I decide to follow my own advice. I simply call to avoid any indication of strength, as if I either need to see a flop or intend to use position to outplay the young Sith apprentice.

I know Phil is tired of laying down to my big bets, tired of being outplayed by me, and I know he will bet on any flop without an A and since I have AA, those leftover Aces and Kare 5% each of the remaining deck and only 11% likely to produce an A high flop or a K high flop each. I will lay down to a K high flop because I KNOW he has KK: not QQ, not AK, not JJ. KK. You know I know.

I am a full 80% to take advantage for all his chips, and only I know it. Phil has played very well, he is a very talented young player, but fatigue from a lack of experience and poker stamina have weakened his poker face. I am in the zone, I am lively, and I know he wants a piece of my fat stack. He will be happy to take down the small pot, but I know this will be a big pot.

The flop is perfect, 8 high, no draws, and with 16,000 in the pot, Phil bets 12,000. I do not hesitate to raise him all in, because I know he'll call, and show me KK. And he does, and PokerMonster rakes in another 30,000 for a fat chip lead of 85,000 or so.

I know Phil Ivory has learned much from the PokerMonster, and I expect him to take a stab at ol' Grundel again loaded with fresh weapons. He has much to learn of the dark side of the force, he does.

ABBA will fall out of the picture next, leaving us with 5 stacks, me in the lead, but all healthy. With plenty of chips, I will weather weaker cards, and a few caught steals while action occurs elsewhere. This is an opportunity to observe my opponents. On one steal attempt, the player to my immediate left in the SB responds to my move with A7, with a rapid all-in, and I will have to fold, knowing has a good PP, and he will show 10 10. I will attempt one more knockout with 66 and double up the same shortie catching and A. I will raise 9000 more to Terry in the BB with A3 to have Terry make the call and make a great move on me all in post flop on a 3 -4 7 board (if he didn't I would have). I show him the 3 only as I muck the A.

The player to my right is interesting. He catches a critical double up trapping the left player (Terry's between the two BTW, just so you get where the table seating is at), and I am seeing how these players play as a result. My man to the right will expose some serious mistakes and tells on this hand, as well as some simplicity to his play. He's no dummy and no rookie, but there is an ABC element to his short final table play. Let's call him, uh, jeez, he needs name, he's a bit dour....how about Grumpy Smurf.

Grumpy Smurf has a bad habit and a tell. His bad habit is to look at his cards before his turn to act. When the man to the left made a big raise, Terry spent some time in the tank, and Grumpy Smurph sat in a statue-like state, unable to move, with his cards partially raised off the felt in his hand near the yellow line like he's ready to muck, or ready to turn them over and show them down. And he has this intense stare as he plays statue, and there is like, electricity coming off the guy.

Left man will eventually call Grumpy's all in, and show down A8 to Grumpy's 10 10. Grumpy was clearly itching to pounce, but he caught his man. And he proudly announces to the table that he was deliberately acting like he was ready to muck to get action. I tell him I could feel the buzz coming off of him. He didn't fool me none.

So, soon after this, with Grumpy now the chip leader, Left man and Terry, foolishly, in my view, go heads up and all-in holding A7 to the left and A6 to the right, Terry sucks out his 6 and we are three-handed, I am down to 45,000 chips and I am in third. My only hand since busting Phil was a similar slowplay with AA in the BB, with 2000/4000 blinds, Terry had raised to 10,000 and, feeling a need to play my AA different this time, simply minraise to 16000. A pretty obvious play really, but it helped define Terry's hand as a hand worth playing when he called, and he did not fall into any traps to my flop check on a 10 high flop, or my 15000 bet into the 35000 pot when the turn paired the 7 on the flop. Had he caught his K or Q or whatever overcard, who knows, but I stalled after that and watched Terry and Grumpy gamble and chip up.

A few hands later, when I folded K6 from the button, and the two checked down with nothing against a flop of K68, I lamented my hand and told them of my K6. They were surprised I didn't play it. I know many consider K high to be a strong hand very short handed, and to an extent, it is, and it was nice to know these two opponents shared the same opinion. I will turn this knowledge into power.

I know my two opponents think ANY ACE OR ANY KING is AN ALL IN HAND. Good to know.

HERE'S THE SHORT VERSION OF THE POKER MONSTER THEORY OF "ANY ACE" in a three or 4 handed game.

• Any ace is worthy of a raise intended to take down the pot without committing to the pot.
  
• It is a raising hand, and only a calling hand if you are short, and expect your big stack opponent so be merely bullying, or your opponent is short and desperate.
• It is a maybe calling hand if you are dealing with an "erratic" short handed player who can just as likely be raising with QQ as 6 high: take your time make the read before the call.
• In a calling situation, you are so likely to be in a kicker battle which you can't control with "any ace" that you simply are gambling with two 6 sided dice who has the best of it, a pretty stupid reason to call.
• Small aces will split 21% of the time or so due to the prospect of 4 bigger cards or board pairs making the kickers not play,but this is no guarantee you didn't walk into a dominated position for too many chips.
• Being only 55 to 60% for A high to be best through 5 cards against two live is a really weak gamble that equal stacks should not make unless both are desperate.
  
• A6 simply cannot be played well post flop. With 15% to flop an ace, and overcards likely even if you do hit a 6, it really is all-in showdown value or forget it.
• Of course, playing ANY KING puts you substantially behind in a showdown with ANY ACE.
  

I prefer sooted connectors and similar for raises here in lieu of an actual hand. Two middle sooted cards are better than folding. I will make two critical steals from my short stacked position. With Grumpy folding on the button, I wake up to see a favorite hand, J9 spades. While J9 spades is a modest holding I like to limp in for cheap at a bigger table, I need some steals, I like this hand, and Terry respects my game and my raises. I go all in and he folds quick.

On the button next hand, I now see K4 hearts. Because I know my opponents respect K high, and again, I need a survival steal, and its suited and possible two live against these predictable jokers' A-high moves, I go all in again. Terry is in the tank over a VERY small Ace, and Grumpy had a sour look from the start. After Terry's tank and fold, Grumpy surrenders the BB. Terry surrenders information on what and why he folded, but I muck.

ON THE VERY NEXT HAND TERRY AND GRUMPY GO ALL IN. GORGEOUS MOVE!

This is why to show a little thought holding Any Ace. Terry has A7. Grumpy A8. The flop of
7 8 8 settles it quickly, and Terry is out. Both of them had plenty of chips, and threw them in thoughtlessly playing the A, not the kicker.

I may be short stacked, with 3000/6000/800 levels about to rise to 5000/10000/1000, but I have serious reads on Grumpy. Terry would have been the tougher opponent heads-up. I have about 45000 chips, Grumpy over 125,000 for a 3-1 lead.

I couldn't be happier. Heads up again with a predictable opponent. Remember last time, when I was exhausted, short stacked, and up against the very experienced, quiet, sneaky Kirby. No cards, no steals no reads, no luck, no dice. Not this time.

We get a new dealer for heads-up. He has never dealt tourneys before, and doesn't know that the Button, as SB, act first heads-up preflop, but last post flop.

This is a very important element of heads up play. The button gets first stab to steal the blinds, and get position for the rest of the hand. Online, two heads up players usually share 250,000 to 750,000 chips against blinds of 2000/4000 or so, very deep heads up play that can often grind for 30-100 hands. here, 5000/10000/1000 levels means 37%% of my current starting stack and 14% of his starts in the pot before we even see our cards. That online patience is not available here, but inspite of Grumpy's idea that this will simply be a preflop showdown affair, I let him know I intend to frustrate him if he thinks beating me will be as easy as who sucked out after 5 hands came down. I intend to play poker, not gamble, and I know I can outplay Grumpy.

In the deeper stacked heads up game, I will raise with button and Any Ace, or in the BB to a limp-in, but NEVER INTO a POT COMMITTED SITUATION. Make a bet that defines your opponent's hand without committing you, so you have room to fold if you don't like the reraise. Ideally you play this from the button, so you have that post flop position, but a bluff from the BB post flop may of course force you to make a huge call with a good A high or an easy laydown against any doubt. The reraise preflop really is the BB's primary position-altering weapon. In the casino, there is simply not enough room in our stacks beyond the blinds to make a bad decision after raising with an ace. I might even check in the BB with a weak ace, knowing I might be able to check raise an A high-flop.

Less theory, more action.

Very first hand, I have the button, and simply complete the bet with 45 off suit, and Grumpy checks. I further note that Grumpy's face really is an open window to his cards. He is no sneak. His check means check.

With a flop of 10 9 5 , I have position and strongly suspect my 5 may be good, but I am short and have to play cautious. The new dealer thinks I am first to act, and we both have to teach him he is wrong. This affords me some chance so assess some additional weakness in Grumpy through his comments to the dealer and the tournament manager. When he checks I check back, intending to see what the turn holds.

It holds nicely. Another 5 makes me a set, and his check to me, and a straight and flush draw on board, prompt me to declare "short stack's all in", and he goes in the tank. He tells me he thinks his K high is good, and I try to sell him on a bluff, but I should have shut it, I suppose, although really, who knows what river suckout potential he has. There is 22,000 in that pot and I need it. He will fold. I will show the 5.

On the next hand, he will limp in, I will wake up to AJ, and raise to 25,000. This time he think's I'm stealing, and he reraises me all in. I can very quickly call here, and we will showdown with me ahead against K9, which I will admit is a very playable hand heads up, and a 9 AND J on our flop help seal up my double up. Grumpy played his cards only and make a huge mistake not respecting my raise, a fact I will soon exploit further.

My double up puts me in a 20,000 chip lead, and with momentum.

The next hand we play he completes the bet and I check the BB with 95 off. The flop is 10 8 7, leaving me a nice straight draw.

I am well aware that the best value here is not on the steal attempt. A free card to the straight will earn me a monster to guarantee a pot which I can afford to lose now. I check, and get the check back.

I get my (HALLELUJAH!!!) J on the turn, and make a meager value bet of 10,000, the minimum. He will call. Why I don't know, but with 4 middle cards out there he has a prospect of a pair.

With a river A, I push him all in and he can't call. I reward him with a peek at the 9 he can't beat.

Now my small lead improved by taking 20000 more from his last 70,000 or so. With 120000 to 50,000, the zone, the cards, and the momentum, it won't take much.

He will steal the next pot, but I will raise to 30,000 the following hand holding K7 diamonds, a raise and an attitude identical to my raise with AJ. Grumpy is now Fraidy Smurf. And he is in trouble.

He has 40000 chips left, and the button. With 6000 invested now, if he folds he surrenders 11000 to the BB next hand I will be first to act. Grumpy has to win the next pot, and he knows it. His all in is weak, predictable, and clearly without any "buzz" like his 10 10 Statue of Liberty play. I am like EA Madden 2007 to his NES Tecmobowl, and he is too short for anything but the Hail Mary this hand.

I have, quite literally Any Ace, A of spades, 3 of clubs, and I call quickly.
Grumpy has 6 8 off suit, both red.

The flop is A 7 9 THREE CLUBS. I have top pair, he has a straight draw, but I own the clubs, offering him 6 measly outs. Curiously, my odds computer offers him a 2.8% SPLIT, obviously runner runner clubs bigger than the 2, but he is only 20.3% to catch.

The turn is no help. The river is the K of clubs.

The Lady of Luck said it was time for the Monster to shine.

I have taken the gold many times on-line. My short handed and heads up game are honed by countless 10 man sngs, online final tables, and 6 to 9-handed live tournaments with my poker buddies. This is my first live bracelet, and a fine tune up for Saturday's $300+30, now a freeroll with cash to spare.

Do I really want to expose my secrets to final table success? Later blogs will tell a tale, I'm sure.

Later, y'all.

Chapter....Nine? Final Table Victory!

Okay, its been a nice week for me, $1350 prize for 3rd in an online $100+9 on Tuesday, and the full monty last night at the casino, 1st place and $2880 in the weekly $90+10. Definitely my best week's haul, and already better than my $3400 month of August.

The online $100+9 is my tournament of choice for the internet game, and this and the live casino weekly have some key similarities and key differences. Both start with 2500 chips, but the online game, as a big price buy in, has a much more leisurely level structure relatively speaking, while the casino game is a bit more action oriented. Starting with blinds as low as 5/10 with 15 minute levels, means you will play perhaps 60 hands in the first hour before your minimum bet reaches 60. after 1:15 the blind level is 50/100. At the casino, with 20 minute levels starting at 25/25, that same 1:15 or so (1:20 actually) we have begun 100/200 blinds. At a very fast table with a very good dealer, you will get 12-15 hands in live during each 20 minute level, with the ratio of hands to level tending to drop fairly steadily due to two factors: longer "in the tank" periods for big decisions in big pots, and the need for the dealer to physically sort out big pots which may have all-in parties and side-pots to sort out.

Both games have the same number of typical players, 90-120 (and both my wins came from shorter handed tourneys, 89 online and 80 live) and I find this number very manageable. Obviously the online game permits me to have much more patience, and I play a tighter game as a result, most early pots being small. I can easily see a fair number of flops early online , miss them all, and still have 2350 after 30 minutes, last night for example, 500 of my chips were gone in the same time frame looking for flops with playable hands and not catching.

In other words, the live game starts to enter into a mini crisis mode quite early. For me yesterday, that meant, while holding AQ of clubs in position, a hand I might just see a flop with on-line, meant reraising a weak opening raise, and ultimately, playing the hand all-in preflop.

Amazingly, I had walked into AA, leading to a a flop of 109 crap, a turn of J, and, suckout of suckouts, a big fat K in the river to hand me Broadway to bust a pair. Having been french-kissed so by the Lady of Luck, it was time to play up to her expectations.

I now had the chips again to see flops, and this time, I was catching better. I limped in with K10 to see a 10 9 4 flop, two spades, and raised an initial bet of 125 to 400. I had position, and felt I had the best of the flop. The next card being a 5, I bet another 500 after my opponent checked.

Lets talk about my bet size choice here for a moment. Pot wise, it offered good odds for my opponent with 1000 in the pot, but I don't think my man is on a draw at all. I think he has 10J. He is out of position and doesn't know where he stands in the hand. He really doesn't know what I have, because although I have folded a lot of hands post-flop, I also demonstrated some impatience overplaying my AQ. I am acting uncertain with the smaller bet, but really I am value betting. He decides to keep floating.

My other goal is to put his chip stack at risk. He commits 1000 to his 3500 stack at this point, creating a pot of 2000 while destroying the improvement he had made to his starting stack. I am putting his stack leverage and ability see future flops at risk, and this will work out in my favour on the river.

My opponent calls my 500, and we see another 10 on the river. This time, he makes the "weak"
bet into me, 700.

Let's look at this bet. 2000 in the pot, 1800 left to his stack. The bet is right on the crisis point for him and for me. He still doesn't know where he stands, and he is hoping I have been caught bluffing, as that 700 pretty much wipes out my lucky double up just a few hands ago.

I went all-in over him, pretty much sure that I had gotten the most I was going to get. I'm not sure if he folds a 10 here, maybe he had A9, he mumbled something about a kicker. Maybe he made a heck of a laydown with weaker trips, but I also think a casual minraise to 1400 in the river has the same effect as an all-in trap sprung.

After the break, following less successful flop prospecting, I settle in to a reasonable position of 5000 chips, could be better, could be worse.

The aggressiveness required after the break is real contrast to the tight game I have earlier described in early middle play which is the hallmark of the $100+9 online game. It becomes very exploitable.

A couple of examples, one involving my next double up:

• to my left is a big bearded guy who has impressed me as a relatively competent player. With blinds of 100/200, he has opened the pot with a bet of 500, he gets 3 callers, including, in the BB, a kid with an Ipod and a baseball hat. He has the same shifty eyes and general deadpan demeanour as Phil Ivey, but he's Caucasian, so let's call him Phil Ivory. He filled a dead seat about 50 minutes in carrying a decently improved stack, and so far he has not played a lot of pots. Right now Phil Ivory is an enigma.
• The flop is a hilarious 2 -7 -2 and right away I am thinking BB special. Phil checks, and Big Beard makes a good bet into this pot of 2100: 1600. The players fold to Phil Ivory, who makes the call. Big Beard has 2000 left
• The turn is another small card, lower than a seven. Phil Ivory checks and so does Big Beard. My impression now is that this is a pocket pair battle, and the players do not know who has the better pair. I will turn out to be pretty much bang on, or half right anyway.
• With another small card on the river, Phil Ivory makes a great bet: 1400. Its small relative to the pot, but Big Beard has invested half his stack into this pot, and will be down to 10x the BB if he lays his hand down. Big Beard tanks for a few, then puts the rest of his chips in, knowing Phil will be calling. Mr. Ivory had flopped a full house, and shows his 77 to Big Beard's measly 99.

99 is a pretty weak PP to commit your tourney life to, but Phil had done a great job trapping with his full house, all the while staring his opponent down shifty-eyed, always deadpan, never offering a tell. Phil will prove to have his weaknesses later, but he sure chipped up nicely with this master stroke.

My turn.

• Soon after Big Beard's bust out, a late player, who's chips have been blinded away, finally comes to the table. This is a bearded Japanese player, and immediately he's in a hurry to catch up. His first move is a big raise, no action, his next a big all in move to isolate a short stack with JJ, and he doubles up in two hands.
• I complement him on his move there, but soon find that this fellow really is playing Kamakaze. He CALLS another shortish stack with A7 spades, and is of course dominated, and hands over 2000 chips Ehem--nobody but nobody CALLS ALL IN WITH A7 AT A 10 HANDED TABLE! Even if you have the raiser beat, someone has you beat. And while Zero here winds up chipping up pretty good within a few hands, and in fact has me well outstacked 10 minutes after he sat down, I wake up in the cutoff with QQ.
• The blinds are still 100/200, two people have limped in, and I decide I want action, so I raise to 600. Zero protects his BB with a call and the two limpers call too. Not exactly what I wanted, but the flop is nice, and all three players check to me.
• Hey, I have position, a flop of 2 8 7 two hearts, and noone liked the flop. There is a nice pot out there and the possibility of a draw, and I need to at least thin out my field. 2500 in the pot, I make a bet of 1500. Again, my bet is good enough sized to damage an opponent, sweetened the pot to 4000, and still, in theory, let me get away from my hand.
• Exactly the message I wanted. I looked like a weak thief preflop and I am simply continuing the charade postflop. Zero raises me all in.
• There is no hesitation to my call. I know I have him beat, and, in fact, we showdown 2 10 to QQ. I turn another Q to prohibit a suckout, and double up.

Zero thought I had missed the flop. Why? I don't know. As an aside, I had made an identical online call late in Tuesday's game on the final table approach when a short stack limped in, everyone folded to me in the BB with K2, and we hit an identical flop. The blinds were 500/1000 with 100 ante, and he had 2500 left. When I checked the flop, he bet 2000, and I put him all in, expecting he had missed completely. I was right, he had A9. Very different scenario, very different read, very big difference between PokerMonster and Zero in terms of understanding the game of poker. I can make an on-line read knowing my 22 is good. He can't make the read in a live game with live body information to use. Mind you, PokerMonster has become an experienced live player, and his poker face, really faces, is pretty solid now. I will show many faces this tournament.

Let me briefly compare this to the online tourney of Tuesday. The first hour was a bit of struggle, but managed to close to double up from a couple of decent pots late in the first hour. I then just cycled between 4000 and 6000 chips until I was able, 45 minutes or so later, to pull a similar stunt at 100/200 blinds when I raised an unopened pot from the cut off with QQ, to 600 only to get played back from by the BB, whom I had outchipped, but not by a lot. He reraises to 2400, and I decide to simply call. The flop is a wonderful K Q 8, and the BB hesitates a bit before putting 2000 of his last 2400 into the pot. He shows-down A4 to my set of ladies, and I joke with the rest of the table about Phil Gordon teaching him to raise a "blind steal from the cut off" with "any ace". Got a Phil Gordon book? Don't throw it away. Read it to see how the other half lives so you better know how to beat predictable ABC poker Monsterstyle.

Right after my QQQ double up yesterday, the table breaks up, and Phil Ivory and I both wind up sitting beside each other, Phil to my left. There is one other big stack at the table, a talkative Asian Banana type (not a perjorative expression where I come from, simply referring to an Asian person who walks, talks, dresses, and acts like every other Canadian: yellow on the outside, white inside like a Banana). ABBA is a very friendly guy, maybe he talks too much, usually has something to say before he raises.

ABBA will soon come to hate that he has PokerMonster and Phil Ivory with huge stacks in the BBs when he is on the button.

On ABBA's first attempt to steal, he makes a joke about the likelihood either Phil or I will play back. I happen to have A9 sooted, and give it some thought, but decide to fold to ABBA's raise, and he doesn't like to raise too much, 800 against 150/300 blinds. Phil takes advantage and reraises, and ABBA has to fold.

The next time things come around, I am again in the SB, there has been an UTG raiser to 900, and ABBA simply makes the call. The UTG now makes a comment about Phil or I making a squeeze play from the blinds, ABBA laughs back, and I wake up to two lovely ladies (always a good thing, even in Poker). I oblige the UTG raiser, and reraise, to 3000. UTG now folds, and ABBA gives it some thought, not much, and simply makes the call.

Interestingly enough, when I raised preflop, Phil asked me to give a chipcount as if he was considering his own move. I don't really want a monster pot here.

I like this move by Phil. Perhaps he had no intention of entering the pot. I've made a big move from a weak position, and the chip count is an opportunity to study my hand movements and voice, probably as information for later. We now know I have 9600 chips, I appear confident about my hand, Phil folds, UTG folds, and ABBA's call in the wake of this drama helped pin me on his hand.

I now know ABBA has a hand. It is a very good hand, but a hand to see the flop with. My gut says AK, and my read will have a big impact on the play. I'm going to use ABBA's talkative, gregarious nature against him (just a bit).

The flop is a glorious 10 high no draw. I am certain I am good, and I put the rest of my chips in.

ABBA tanks, and wonders aloud whether he has the best of it. I tell him he will have to pay to see if his AK is good. His response confirms I have him on a hand, and I ask him, "I've put you on a hand, have you put me on a hand?" He sighs, and says probably an overpair, and eventually mucks. I reward his insight with a peep show of my ladies (25 cents a gander, gentlemen!).

WHY OH WHY DID THE MASTER OF SNEAK PUT ON SUCH A DISPLAY?

• I'm new to the table, expect to be here a while, and I will need to steal later, and the drama might help me out;
• I DID NOT WANT A 4-WAY POT PREFLOP HOLDING QQ;
• with the aid of Phil's chip count on me, I have put ABBA in his hand, and I have a 7500 chip pot here. I risk a marginal 25% but still realistic suckout with two cards to go knowing he has two live overcards to come. Greed kills every time. I think if I play it any other way, I induce the call, but this is a happy pot and I want it.
  

In other words, QQ is vulnerable, unlike my KK lesson from Tuesday inviting you to trap to find a three way big pot to triple up.

ABBA got caught in the middle AGAIN holding AK on a Q high flop with Phil THE NEXT TIME WE WERE IN THE BLINDS, having committed all but 6000 chips to find Phil check-raising all-in to a 3000 (weak, and obviously weak) ABBA bet in a strongly raised pot.

I will push ABBA around AGAIN with QQ in the blinds THE NEXT TIME AROUND, but all players folded that time.

ABBA will get the better of some weaker players, who have sensed his ability to make big folds. He got 3 way action holding AA, against two short stacks with 109 and 77, and pulled a few chips back.

I, on the other hand, get to exploit my own aggressiveness from the blinds soon after.

UTG, I had made a moderate raise of 1100 against 200/400 blinds holding AA. I got no action, and showed AA.

The next hand, a pretty aggressive player in middle position who has been stealing a lot makes a raise to 1600. Play folds to me and I joke about my monsters in the blinds and how I'll see AA two hands in a row.

Then I peek at my cards. Big Slick. I don't hesitate to push all 16,000 chips into the middle. It was an instant all-in similar to the play Al busted his two ladies chasing KK on Monday. Obviously AK is not KK. But I'm in a zone, and I must have picked something up from the raiser.

He obviously didn't pick up anything from me. There was nothing to read, of course, until I looked at my cards and said I was all-in. Amazingly, he thought AJ was good, and made the call pretty quickly, as Al did Monday, but jeez guy, instacalling with QQ is one thing, but AJ? For all your chips when you can just as easily fold? No suckout for you.

I am suddenly chip leader with over 30,000 chips with 18 people left.

Now life is not all wine, roses and paired painted ladies for the PokerMonster. When I have hands to push and raise with, I get pushy, and in spite of all these big hands I have either shown or shown down at this table, my raises get action. When I open the pot in the cut off or button, there are nothing but hungry short stacks in the blinds, and of course I am only pushing when I have a hand, but do I get credit for a hand? Forget it.

The first time I push 66 into a very short stack VERY happy to wake up to AQ. He catches and I don't mind. But the next time I push with A 10 (a very strong hand vs two random desperate blinds), I have to pay 6000 off two shortie #2 who decided to call with K3 sooted (and caught a 3)

Phil Ivory had escaped to the other table. After a point I am annoyed, and back down to 15000 chips, and ecstatic when they move me to Phil's table.

I have position now on Phil, and decide to take some advantage of Phil's respect for my game. We are 14 handed now, and with blinds 500/1000/150 and 500/1500/200, my 15000 will whittle down if I play too tight, and is too little now to gamble a double up.

Thankfully, the whole dynamic is different at this table. More stealing and less big pots.

Soon into my time there, I notice Phil is doing his share of raising. with 500/1500 blinds, his steal attempts are bets of 4200 consistently.

Let me talk about this particular stealing bet price. 2.5x the blinds in consistent betting is a technique I have seen often. The bet is small enough to get away from a raise. It is big enough to force your opponents to define their hand and play a pretty big pot when the average stack looks like mine. Betting the same, we don't know whether he is raising to steal or raising a big hand for value.

But having spent some time with Phil, I have poked a few holes in his armour. First, I am all too aware of this technique for stealing/disguising big hands. Second, he knows I will reraise any amount including all-in with big hands (and guess what? I'm going to change gears on Phil later too). He saw my moves with both QQ and my huge all in with AK. Third, I seem to be able to detect a little concern in his eyes when he has something to be concerned about.

With a meager A8 spades, I move against Phil's standard steal raise all in. He tanks. He likes to tank and play stare down. He, like Phil Ivy, shuns sunglasses, but I can stare back with impunity. I do not play statue. I shift my posture. At one point I start acting bored. I grab some fries from my plate of dinner and munch absentmindedly.

I say one thing, eventually, after probably 2 full minutes of tanking, "You've seen how I play". That is enough to force him to muck.

This play sets a nice tone for me at the new table. The next hand I will see and play is 10 10, and I am UTG, so I just go all in with it. I get folds and I show it, and tell the table I didn't want the suckout action. I will also steal against a limper UTG and show A10 hearts to the folders when we are 6 handed.

During bubble time, with so many similar sized stacks, caution while stealing is the name of the game. I had too many chips to get a call, and I knew the UTG player was a cautious player from pots before and play at the other table. He had even limped in QK from the SB to play against my K8 BB, and I learned much after I had bet the turn A after a A 4 5 flop had been check check. He told me he had QK after I told him I though K high was good there.

This is another key similarity with the online game. 2 tabled, stacks do not have a huge variation in size. The biggest might be 30,000, with plenty in the 15,000 to 20,000 range, and shorter stacks with 7000-10000 busting up the online game to the final is tougher, as the blinds are smaller, levels longer, and the blind grind not as onerous.

Somehow, his caution fell by the wayside the very next hand when UTG and Phil had an all-in showdown. Phil's AA almost got sucked out on, when UTG's 77 hit what I will be told was the case 7 on the flop, only to be busted by the case A on the turn.

This blog is long. I'm going to edit and continue with the final table in the next blog, but without delay. Just gonna head to the casino and buy into saturday's game.