More short stack adventures: post flop play

What a shame my recent blogs are all about short stack play. After winning over $10,000 in July, I have suffered my longest no-cash streak ever. The lone exception was a $1200 payout early september which paid for my season's pass for skiing. Finishing 8th in minor online tournaments does not count, nor does the 8th in a casino wednesday tournament for $10 over the buy in. My last final table of any significance saw me with AA two hands in a row, UTG and then the BB, limped in for a trap and river raise to cause the big stack to fold, and the entire profit in that hand lost when the short stack UTG limped in, three limpers followed, and I raise to put her all in and watched A10 offsuit fourflush the river. Then my JJ will fall to AA a few hands later.

More recently JJ fell to K9 and KK fell to 62.

Tonight, an hour of poker equalled 4 playable starting hands, one small pot, and 2150 in chips, blinds of 50/100, and I am in the BB.

My reads have been excellent: I have had nothing to do at the table BUT observe other players. It is a pretty raw and young table. The only older gentleman is immediately to my left, who showed down 5 3 for 2 pair in a cheap pot from the button early. Further observation of the player is that he is a pot odds player who likes to see a lot of flops, calls to many raises, but can outplay post flop when he reads weakness. I read weakness in the same situations too, like from a dapper young black man across the table who also has some post flop skills but folds like a house of cards to good bets with confidence behind them...but he is not part of this story.

Two seats further left is a thirty-something Chinese gentleman who has seen a lot of pots, and shown down nothing but wired pairs. In his first hand, a bet and three calls of 75 causes him to bet 600. I immediately put him a wired pair. He gets one caller, a very green young man who had opened the pot for 75 (blinds 25/25), and the kids beside me folds and so do I, holding a small suited ace. Been around the block to play a dry ace when a small raise flat calls anything that is so obviously a wired pair.

I do not disagree with the 600 raise here, necessarily, it is common when the blinds are cheap to protect these hands from pot-odds players. I read an interesting article contrasting the internet tourney player from the live tourney player, and I have to agree. Internet tourney players even at the $5 MTT level still play like tournament players: without a rebuy option, playing "pot odds" on raises with 87 and 10J will whittle your stack a lot more quickly and readily than folding them after trying to play then cheap. The live casino weekly tourney is full of live cash players. This raiser doesn't want 5 callers. He doesn't want a small ace in there. He doesn't want a small pair in there. That's fine, but I would rather lose a small pot here than win a small pot preflop in a manner that telegraphs the strength of my hand. Fear causes this raise, not confidence. It will come to be shown that all the aces were dead anyway, but post-flop, his raise will bear itself out. This rookie was exactly the right caller.

The flop is J J 10, and the rookie is first to act, and his hands are shaking. He is overwhelmed. He is nervous. He is in trouble and the table knows it. and he bets 1000, leaving him with only 800 chips. Now he is in trouble and is pot committed.

That was not the nervousness of a guy who flopped monstrous, I know it and our raiser knows it. He puts all his chips in quickly. The rookie looks at his chipstack, hates himself, but has to make the call, and his A10 will fall to QQ.

I know an awful lot about the raiser holding QQ already. Lets just call him PP, since he will never show down a non-pair. He will protect a big pair, he knows when his QQ is good on a JJ flop. Makes good decisions. Telegraphs big hands.

On another hand, he will make a more modest raise, get several callers, and ultimately show down 88 after the flop hit A Q 10 two clubs and got no action. On yet another, he will be last to call an all in for 575 (of 4), check to a flop of 775, and bet to protect 33 with a 2 on the turn to show the best hand . The all in had A8 and the kid beside me was the first caller, obviously with AK as we later discussed. He was right that he should have gone all in for a heads up showdown. Another rookie mistake. I learned early at the casino to NEVER flat call an affordable all in when you have a big showdown hand. We discussed these protective bets in a very recent blog.

In yet another hand, PP, in an attempt to "mix it up", still shows that same deliberation as before, but only bets 150 in late position with several 50 chip limpers. The UTG limper, the Dapper Dan I had mentioned before, limp raises to 400, and all folds to PP. We all know by now that Dapper Dan can't stand the heat. PP figures this out too, after some deliberation, and puts enough in the pot to force DD all in. DD will predictably fold.

I am sure PP had a big hand. Probably NOT a pair. It was obvious DD was playing a stunt. If PP had a PP of magnitude, he would have flat called and let DD hang himself. DD is smart enough to make a probe bet on the flop, and smart enough to fold. PP doesn't have the acting skills to show weakness and trap, so he just took it down.

More information on PP.

At the end of the table is another rookie. He knows enough to call raise when he puts in a 500 chip into 100 bets, but he is constantly looking like a deer in the headlights when it is his turn to act. He is 23 tops, doesn't look very bright, looks over-tired and overwhelmed. He has lost some chips along the way. He looks like a blond Beaver Cleaver so we will call him Sleepy Beav, or SB.

When rookie number one busted out I gave him some quick advice: his post flop bet was too big to represent the J. I will have some advise for SB by the end of this hand...

Now back to the hand. 2150 in chips, BB, blinds 50/100

my pot-odds limper on my right is UTG, and limps in,

PP is next to act, and I get the same deliberation, but again he is trying to mix it up, so he opens for 350. He knows the table well enough to know he'll get action, but, in spite of his "mix up" attempts, he even telegraphs them. I immediately get the sense he is holding a big pair. I am under the impression now he would protect a big ace. Gut is everything in this game.

Sleepy Beav, still looking lost and sleepy, and prone to pot odds calls (which is why he has less than 200 chips), makes the call. I don't recall if there was a third caller (Dapper Dan is not in this part of the story, in other words), but I see a price of 350 and then my cards of 55. No way I'm going for broke here, I just put PP on a PP! BUT I have excellent IMPLIED ODDS to see a price that I KNOW wont be re-raised. The gentleman to the left who limped in never put in the vibe of a big hand trapper, and I am confident he simply has playable cards and wants to see a flop. Me too.

IMPLIED ODDS

I rarely talk about implied odds. The "book" describes them as the prospect that your call will lead to you winning a big pot if you hit a big flop. I think I just dumbed it down to a definition even I can understand. These lessons have all been about "good" odds to double or triple up in gambling situations. And I have used these blogs not just for you but for me to reanalyze my short stack card selection and inject more gamble in my game for when I need it. In other words, If I am going to invest my tournament in a high risk situation, the ultimate reward better make the risk worthwhile.

I tend not to use the term, because I don't want you to think in terms of "pot odds" and "implied odds", I want you to actually grind out the real odds. Think through the WHOLE HAND, not just the apparent strength of your hand [OMG! AK! OMG! I just lost to 33! OMG! C(ry)OL] (Sorry, not talking internet poker here. I will use complete sentences), or to justify a "crying call", like I did playing pot limit omaha with the boys last friday, flop a set of Aces (AA in my hole cards) on a A 10 4 flop, value but the flop, see a Q on the turn, knowing the Q made my opponent a straight, then check calling $5 more knowing I'm bad from a pot that was $8 before the turn. If you KNOW you're bad, you've done your job. You don't need to pay to prove it. Satisfy yourself your read was good and move on. Similarly, playing shorthanded in a short stacked home game with big blinds and raising A8 to 800 from 100/200, it is not a good play to call off the raise to 1250 all in when you KNOW you are crushed preflop (Magus had AQ)

GOOD GAMBLES REQUIRE EXCELLENT PREFLOP READS. Unsure, don't gamble.

Here's my gamble. Here's my mistake.

The flop is 2 4 8 two clubs, and I am first to act. If you read the last few blogs in detail, you may form an opinion here, assuming that PP is in fact "mixing it up", and maybe this time he doesn't have a wired pair. If the three callers share each others high card outs, this is a GREAT FLOP for 55. The raise was enough to cause All 8 holding hands BUT 88 to fold, and I make a quick choice to risk it. I go all in. Not being greedy, just announcing "my flop, pay it all to draw out".

BUT I IMMEDIATELY REALIZE that I had read PP with a big PP. I was calling to hit a 5 on the flop, but the dry situation I was in forced my decision to risk that the read was wrong.

Sure enough, when the UTG limp/caller folds, PP is now deliberating. He is deliberating because Sleepy Beav is still in the pot. He has a pair. Its big. Its the right flop. There is something greedy about this deliberation, trying to pull Sleepy Beav in with him. In the end he simply calls the 1800, which is more than Sleepy Beav has.

Now here is where it gets odd, and here is my lesson for Sleepy Beav. He is in the tank. He is disoriented. He is confused. He doesn't know where he stands. The tank is at least 90 seconds, before he announces call.

I announce that I know I'm beat, and that PP has a big pair, and that SB has a big draw. But I'm only 1/2 right.

PP has QQ

SB has KK.

Pardon me, the flop is 8 high, there is 4900 in the pot, you have 1600 left, and you have SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT HOLDING KK?

I am not impressed by the slowroll. No shortstack folds KK in that situation. Nobody. If someone cracked my KK, they can have my chips. If PP had AA, he can have my chips.

My initial impression is this slowroll was rude and disrespectful. I say so.

The lesson is in poker manners. In spite of some comments I have made about the VALUE of riding someone you can ride towards tilt, I do not play live poker the way some sociopaths consider acceptable in internet play. Internet play is incredibly rude. The casino is full of "good luck all in" and "good game", and I am all about that. My live poker reputation is that when I am on I will kick your ass, and we will behave like gentlemen along the way. Unless I hit a situation where my wit can be used to advantage, and I tend to be subtle and clever instead of rude.

The slowroll of an all in player with a huge hand that any non-moron would instantly call is very very very uncool. There is no need to make a man (or woman) sweat his fate if his fate is known to you.

In retrospect, his intentions were not disrespectful. He was a moron. He was so overwhelmed by the casino experience he had no sense of the pot size, his stack size, the players in the pot, and he may have even forgot he's holding KK. Told that he was slowrolling, if he has the capacity to learn, perhaps he will.

KK post flop, no A on board, a call 3.5 times bigger stack? Nothing to think about. If we DID deconstruct this hand, ANY REASONABLE PLAYER should have this figured out on that flop:

The first ALL IN was WEAK. No way I try to take down the pot with a pot size
bet with a set.

PP has shown down SO MANY pairs he can only have a big PP or a big draw consistent
with his predictable image, like AK or AQ clubs.

The odds of ONE OF US hitting a set with an underpair on the flop is 11%. The
odds of us BOTH is 11% squared: 1.21% Even if I am such a good player that I KNOW
one of my opponents has a big pair and KNOW a big bet will be called with me
holding a set, (a very good play, and I have done this), this read here is
defying the probability curve. I COULD be THAT BRILLIANT, but with Sleepy holding
KK and PP calling already the MOST LIKELY READ is that ONE HAS AN OVERPAIR and the
OTHER HAS SOMETHING WORTH LESS THAN AN OVER PAIR. Because its only 11% that this
wrong. Add the statistical odds that AA is in this pot. Significantly less than
1%.

If A x clubs made a call here, it is 42-44% to beat me, less if I hold a club.
But WHO THE HELL FOLDS 56-58% the favorite with 1600 to add to 4900? NO ONE. If
the limp caller, folded an ace (pretty likely) my odds got better.


In other words, I am SO BRILLIANT a player that I can read a set here ABSOLUTELY, then fine, lay down KK, but when my KK is 89% TO BE GOOD HERE AND THERE IS 4500 in the pot, I am going to all in and pray I am wrong and if right I spike a K!

And one thing Sleepy Beav knows, is that he's not brilliant.

My move was not brilliant either. I knew I was wrong the second my chips went in. I didn't put Sleepy Beav on a big PP (way to sleepy), but I was DEAD ON on PP's hand, and simply forgot, or chose to forget.

There is no doubt at all that this game requires awesome skills. It also requires cards. Flop that set, and yes, I am brilliant enough to make sure I get paid. I already wrote that blog. From the BB, I weak raised with AA, got 4 callers, flopped the A for the set, check called my way through a hand with a smaller set and a flush draw for a huge pot, and no one had a clue I had a thing.

My cards are coming.

Good luck catching yours!

Even More short-stack gambling: pot odds for adults

Anyone who read any of my early blogs might have read the last few and wondered why I spoke so lovingly of pot odds. Didn't I once describe pot-odds analysis as justifying your first mistake with another?

Aha! But I spoke of last blog's 3x AK raiser as having made mistakes because of the odds she was offering, a FAR MORE important issue than the Phil Gordonian pot odds calls which occur when the big stack bully raises to 10,000 with K9 with blinds of 1500/3000, and the stack with 15,000 protects his sb by going all in. Yes, its only 5,000 more into A 28,000 chip pot. But 10,000 of those chips are what you put in bad! Big Stack Bullies have to play smart power poker. Tight players with medium stacks will give up blinds to raises of 3-3.5 x the blinds when you can open the pot from a later position. Anyone looking to blind steal should seriously consider 5th, 6th and 7th position steals rather than cut off and button steals. They are far less obvious as steals, cost the same, and have similar effect. Keep in mind that late position players still have people to act behind them. They are far more likely to flat call than reraise, and if you were attacking the blinds of the right kinds of players, they will still fold rather than play, even with odds, out of position in a raised, medium sized pot with a raiser and a caller. Big stacks will easily make the pot odds call, and, as I have discussed in the last two blogs, a well schooled short stack may correctly read his situation correctly: the raiser has the weakest hand, the caller needs a flop, both have paint or painted ace, and my 78 hearts may very well be 38% here. If he has enough chips to induce a fold, he goes all in and may very well steal the whole pot: an effective double up at minimal risk (given the weakness shown by the raiser and caller) or triple up gamble if the raiser and caller both have high Aces and one is big enough to call.

VERY IMPORTANT to have those reads locked down to make these moves. I will remind of the formula:

- Pay attention to every player on every hand as the play unfolds towards you:
- Make particular note of every player seriously considering a play: these
marginal hands are often outs for larger raising hands:
- The manner in which a raiser raises (automatic, deliberate, calculated,
uncertain) should be first clues to what he holds:
- The manner in which the raiser reacts to anyone considering a play are next clues:
- Any callers must be carefully scutinized for possible traps or genuine "need to
see the flop" weakness:
- Ask any players in the pot for a chip count BEFORE LOOKING AT YOUR CARDS so you
can read them, and they can't read you:
- NEVER make an automove of your chips all in (see point three) when you see an AK
or a 88 or other "OMG finally a hand" hands. Use this opportunity to probe
further (like in point 4). Here's a trick: PRETEND to look at your cards, then
probe for reaction by contemplating the call or the pot or your stack size.

Any short stack needs to understand that opportunities include opportunities to steal raised pots. If you can stare down a cut -off raise that was slow, deliberate, and careful by a cautious player and than look down at A3 spades and autopush, knowing he both has you beat and that he will fold, you are fearless. You will succeed.

FEARLESS

I'm short stacked, I have 6x the blinds, the chip leader has be covered 10 to 1, I am gone. Why be scared? You have already lost. You can only move up or go home.

THIS IS WHY POT ODDS IS A CRUCIAL FACTOR

Well calculated gambles may be the only solution for the short stack. A6 is NEVER a hand for a well calculated gamble! THIS IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT: LIVE CARDS. If A6 is a bad gamble, why raise with it? The 10 6 you had the hand prior, in better position, HAD BETTER ODDS AGAINST A CALLER and IS JUST AS GOOD TO STEAL WITH.

The short stack HAS TO GAMBLE SMART.

Here is an amazing short stack recovery story. I probably told it before, but it is worth retelling. With 30 people left, blinds are 500-1000 and I am UTG and holding 3000 chips.

I GO ALL IN BLIND. Why? Because I need the blinds to be in the pot. My stack can't wait to be in the BB, when I am pot committed anyway, but 1000 of the chips belong to me, not somewhat else. I have no choice but to play these cards. They happen to be 83. I get protection from AK, and I catch but he does not.

7500 CHIPS

Now the table knows I am crazy, so the table folds to the blinds. SB makes a flat call. I have 83. I check. The flop is trash, but contains a 8 or 3 (I don't remember). The SB bets about 2500. I can go all in for 4000 more, and do so. He was bluffing. He folds.

I will fold the SB next hand

11000 chips

I am now on the button. A player in early position who has made strange plays in strange positions makes a small raise. A young woman who I know will only play good hands makes a raise on him (she also knows hes a weak raiser). It then folds to me. I have AQ. I push all in. the SB is a very short stack: he has odds to more than quadruple: he's an instacall (and good for him). Surprisingly, the original raiser with crap makes the call, and we have 4 people all in. In order of betting: Q 10; 10 10; A Q (me); K9. K9 will catch his nine, but I will catch my Q on the river. The original raiser earns a small side pot between him and 10 10. The pot will take about 5 minutes to sort out, but ultimately the dealer ships me

39,000 chips

TWO HANDS LATER, the same raiser from the last hand goes all in with his last 6000 chips. He will get protection from a big stack: 22,000. All folds to me and I have AK. There is some, but little, hesitation. ALL IN. The original raiser is hating himself at the moment, but jeez, he has 22,000 into a pot which has gone through the roof 70,000 chips in the pot and 17,000 to call. Phil Gordon aside, chips in bad and all, how can anyone not protect that initial bad investment? And pray I have JJ and his AQ is good? It isn't. I catch my K to settle all.

86,000 CHIPS. 7 HANDS.

Every gamble was the right move, right odds, every gamble was still a gamble.

FEARLESS = CHIP LEADER.

Pot odds are used to determine whether a gamble is a good risk. Period. Those odds need to be accurately calculated BEFORE YOU PUT IN YOUR FIRST CHIP. It NEVER JUSTIFIES a bad initial move.

YOU'RE SHORT STACKED

YOU HAVE ONE MOVE

YOU HAVE TO MAKE IT COUNT.

So, I have criticized the AQ for over protecting a short stack call. I have criticized AK for making a greedy, underwhelming raise which invited a call and really invited more chips to enter the pot: preflop or post flop, it doesn't matter.

Shit, if I got a limper or two from short stacks and I have AK, I want them to make a call for ALL their chips. Have them put their tournament on the line. Why not bet accordingly? 3x the blinds almost guarantees the action you didn't want, and the short stack is so committed by calling, he might as well shove before the flop. I wll often, even to open the pot, holding a big stack an a big slick, make a preflop bet that equals the biggest short stack I want to play with. It is too much for another big stack to call with without a huge hand. It is designed for ONE CALLER ONLY. I AM CONTENT WITH THE STEAL. My hand is protected.

AQ's error? Not so much as the quality of his hand, as the possibility, raising an all in so early in position, that the weakness of his AQ as a showdown hand might be exposed and lead to the wrong action. Sometimes AQ can and should be a flat-calling hand: fact of the matter is, that flat call looks stronger than the big protection bet, because it shows some FEARLESSNESS. And I might flat call AK there too and manage my odds better by looking at a flop, rather than push all in.

One last recent example. I have AK in early position (blinds 100-200) and a modest stack of 4500. Dying for a double up. I raise to 800. The person to my left raises me to 1800. The table folds, and I go all-in. He makes a crying call with QQ, and says he made a mistake. He should have managed the pot. He let the pot get out of hand. I hit my A on the flop. He flat calls with QQ, he sees that A, I make 1000 chips not 4800. Damn right he made a mistake. I was a short stack: he was offering me a double up opportunity by raising. Fact of the matter is, QQ is still a pretty strong hand in a three way or 4 way RAISED pot, given that callers will have duplicates of Aces and Kings and the flop is likely dead.

Sounds like I am move onto another lesson....later.

More short stack lightning

Let's face it. Getting short stacked really sucks. You can't afford to see flops or play post flop. Every raise has to be a go hand and everyone knows it: you either get no action or the wrong kind of action. The reality is, unless you see KK or AA in the BB, you will have to gamble in the rights spots and pray.

I last talked about small pairs, usually with good position.

Today I had the "pleasure" of watching my stack disappear to fruitless flops over the first hour, and down from 2500 to 1500 chips and 50-100 blinds. Not many options, but I had to play. I had to play play able cards in acceptable cicumstances.

My first double up:

I have 1625 in chips. I am first to act, I have K9 diamonds. I LOVE his hand. I am in love with a mean mistreata. Its a sickness. I usually follow the doctor's advice and fold this marginal hand, except in deep position and real cheap. But its playable, and I want to play it.

The table is tight. Only one knockout in an hour. Players are all playing conservatively. Predictably. Some are beginning to exploit the tightness of the table and steal small pots, but I don't have a stack capable of setting an uncallable price, and a bad bluff will knock me out. I need to get in a fair race for all the chips.

There are two callers ahead of my initial limp in, then a short stack takes a quick glance at his cards and moves all in.

This "instant all-in" is easy to read. It was thoughtless. It announced his hand loudly. "I have a big hand, but I can't trap with it and I don't want a call". Small pairs are very often in this category. I once made a sick but affordable call against an all-in short stack with QJ and beat out 66 late in a tourney, after appropriate deliberation and probes for information. AK and AQ and AJ are very often in this category. Sometimes 10 10 and JJ are too, but just as often, they are hands which lead to some deliberation. small pairs are semi-bluff steals/gambles. the higher pairs have trapping capabilities in post flop play and tend to lead to at least a pause before action.

The limps are a tell too. QJ, 10J, KJ, A10, are all limper hands. None are calling hands at THIS table. Only one has me dominated, and I am basically next to act (after the blinds) and I know these are limp hands calling in the middle. I have been observant and it is clear these people need to see a cheap flop and aren't trapping.

QK and the like are not limpers. Most players will raise QK out of middle position to show some strength, help close the hand to gain position, and to get more information on the limpers.

The only hands which contain a 9 among these limpers would be A9 (pretty tough to call here with A9 to an all in raise, especially this table) and connectors, and K9 dominates these hands. The tightness of the table, and the shortness of every stack resulting from it, makes it pretty pricy to play a 910 from the middle position. These players play correctly.

In other words, in this situation, K9 is likely got two live cards, an even race against the likely low pair, and almost even against the likely A high hand. A9 can also make this all in move, but not instant automove like this. The high ace could be in real trouble if the kicker's outs were among the limp ins.

There is an excellent risk that my hand has run into AK, but we are talking about gambling, not playing sure things here.

I am correct that I am up against a fair or good gamble, and commit the rest of my chips. I am racing AQ.

Clearly my cards are live. I get two 9's on the flop: a K on the river. AQ completely whiffed.

THE VERY NEXT HAND, I am in the BB. There are three limpers ahead of me. the SB is also a short stack. He is, just like in the hand before, AN INSTANT ALL IN. He has about 1100 chips. I have 66 but I don't have "I just got these chips" syndrome. I need to make up for lost time with no flops at a tight table. The read is as instant as the SB's chip push and I look down at 66. It is about a 3 second deliberation before I protect my cards and push all in as well.

I get a lot of respect on this move. They assume the SB ran into a monster. Not quite. But it will be a postflop monster.

The flop is

A

A

6

Two full houses in consecutive hands. The SB has a draw, but very lucky even his 3+ outs is crippled, as a limper (or 2) could have easily folded a Q. The turn is a 9, so a Q or 9 gives him a better full house, but really only the 9 is live and its three outs with a river to go. its a 6.

That's all well and good, but this is the best example of the night. A FANTASTIC shortstacked play.

This fellow has had the same experience as I preluck, and the blinds are 100/200. He has only 1200 chips. He has limped in from middle position. A lady to my right raises to 600. She is VERY readable. She has a good hand, but a not a huge hand. I am in the SB and have AJ. I want to see a flop, and 500 more to see if I catch a J isn't bad. Instinctively, BTW, that is my thought: catch a J, not catch an A. My reads are good tonight it will turn out.

The short stack limper does something which surprises me, but shouldn't have. He pushes the rest of his chips in. 1000 plus change more.

Here is an interesting little sidebar. There is a rule which I don't particularly like which says if you raise, and a short stack cannot complete a proper reraise when he goes all in (a proper raise being equal to the first raise) then the original raiser and everyone else intending to call are limited to a call.

Here, the raise to 600, which is a raise of 400, allowed the short stack reraise of just over 400 to leave the original raiser's option open. I don't know if she made this bet 600 to satisfy this rule (and if so, that is the mark of a very experienced player, and she might be, in spite of her linear approach to the game)

She is an instant all in to the reraise. ^This move tends to confirm my original instinctive read. This is an AK move. Its not a KK move or an AA move. One protects a hand with AK, and continues to seek a sidepot holding a huge pair.

I know I'm gambling, but, hey, my last two races produced full houses. I have a new marker and I want to test its luck. She made me fold AJ just two hands earlier. I still am in short stack gamble mode. This hand would have the same instructive value had I folded, but I gamble my AJ and she will show her AK.

The short stack has 87 of hearts. Little suited connectors like these have the best odds against big pairs (about 24% to hit straight, flush, or 2 pair) and I really like this move. AT WORST he is looking at a triple up (or close to if I fold) against a big pair, and those odds aren't two off his 24% chances. At best he has read the raise and call correctly, and he is up against two high Aces with live cards. Fact of the matter is, the typical situation here is one caller, not two, as one protects and the other folds, but I am being a donkey. All he has to do is hit a pair and dodge, typically, two A's and possibly three K's, but in this case, my three live J's. He is 30% to hit a a pair in 5 cards, those 8 outs representing 40% to bust his pair: if I fold, its a 25% factor. His approximately 1 in 3 (rounded generously) to triple up are still a gamble, but he has no gamble left and he had to make a move somewhere. We can round generously because the flush and straight opportunities are live two. My hand calculator puts 78 hearts at a WHOPPING 38% to beat AJ and AK in a full race. An optimist would call that a coinflip! In a three way pot! To triple up! No wonder he pushed with such delight. The AK has almost identical odds to win. You can figure where my 3 outer stands.

He will flop 9 6 7. A pair and open ended straight. He will catch the straight on the turn for the check mark. She will pick up a sidepot which realizes a meager net gain of about 1000 chips.

She did not expect me or intend me to call when she went all in. She wanted to race the short stack with AK. But the short stack read his situation better than she did. The price was good in the end, but my flat call out of position on her raise needed to tell her that her AK was not as strong has it could be. Well behind a small pair who had limped in the middle to test his situation. Certainly, her hand had reasonable odds of success for the price, and she correctly protected the hand by going all in. Except for the price I was getting and the gambles I was prepared to make. Correct play has a way of making correct play players yell at me and call me names while I rake in their chips. Because it requires your opponent to play predictably and correctly lay down like their supposed to.

This is unsophisticated play, in spite of my comments on the accuracy of her bet size. "Correct" players think there are bound rules saying you can't play 87 hearts for all your chips from middle position, or raise under the gun with A10 or 77, and that you can only play looser cards from deep in position, you can't play suited junk at all (K9 diamonds included), you can't call or raise with middle pair, etc etc.

In other words, this predictable table is EXACTLY what an aspiring Pokermonster needs to home his or her reading skills and deeper gamne. "Correct" players play "correctly" because their understanding of the game is not deep. It is not cerebral. It is "BY THE BOOK" (quite literally, and literarily, and usually Brunson's "Supersystem I": read it, if you haven't, and then understand the mechanical way some players will play this game "by the book").

Part of this "correct" play is the 3x the blinds bet. IT IS A TERRIBLE BET IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES! Early position the 3xer SCREAMS BIG HAND AFRAID TO LIMP BUT LOOKING FOR ACTION and I AM A ROOKIE. Middle and late position it SCREAMS I DIDN'T WANT 5 CALLERS, BUT I HAVE GIVEN EVERY LIMPER AND THE BLINDS ODDS TO CALL and I AM A ROOKIE.

As a result the hand had just gotten completely out of control. If she made a BIG BET, she isolates the limping short stack, protects AK from all but the best (and she had the button, so there are only the blinds to concern with), and prices my AJ out, because a call commits me to it. She maintains control: no callers, or short stack isolation. Instead, the AJ call of mine gives that short stack huge odds to gamble for his short risk, and I am now invested 600 into a pot with 2300 in it, a stack of 3000 left, and I could have been calling with a small pair! This is a real failure to shift gears and understand the game as it has evolved into the rounds where the blinds force short stacks to gamble.

HERE'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE. from a $300 buy in game which didn't turn out so lucky, but is an interesting hand.

THE PLAYER TO MY LEFT is a pretty good player with a few rookie edges. Young guy. Had to be explained the "single overchip without declaration is a call" rule. He is slow and deliberate, and really looks up his opponent before making a bet in any position. He has chipped up to 30k. I am limping around with 8000, looking for good spots. Blinds are 150-300. He is UTG: I am big blind. LETS CALL HIM LEFTY

LEFTY has opened the pot with a bet of 800, not quite even 3x the blind. We started with 10k, so this is really a modest bet. HE GETS 3 CALLERS before it comes around to me. I have 300 invested, there is about 3000 in the pot, and 500 to call. K6 spades. I don't play pot odds, but how can I lay anything down for that tiny price?

You should also know that he is in seat 10 and I in seat 9. His other opponents have position but sit acorss from him. I am in his right blind spot.

Leftly likes to bet post flop, and has lots of chips.

The flop is a dream: 9 6 2 ALL SPADES. I have second nuts. I instacheck.

leftly is looking up his opponents, BUT NOT ME. He is staring them down as he compiles his bet.

Lefty makes a MASSIVE OVERBET. 3500 in pot, HE BETS 20,000. All but about 8000 of his stack.

HE HAS ANNOUNCED that I HAVE NO SPADE and I AM A ROOKIE.

He never looks at me. I relax. I don't need a poker face. I have the second nuts. Only the A high flush is going to call him, he has read all the other opponents' disgust of the flop correctly anyway, and both of us know the other three will fold. He doesn't know that, if the A spades was out there, HE HAS JUST PROTECTED MY HAND not his.

So, when it's finally my turn I instacall and remind him that he forgot to look me up.

He turns over 22. "I have outs" he says "yeah, 25%" I says. He rivers a 9. Good flop, great play, bad luck. Boat beats flush.

I walked out but he made two awful mistakes. That tiny raise in no way protected his hand or defined his opponents. It simply added size to the pot. Then he took my "pot odds" BB call for granted, and assumed I was of no concern in vastly overbetting what was for him a tiny pot. If my pot odds BB call came with a big stack attached, as it often does, he needs a 12% river or he goes from chipped to chump and out the door.

GOOD LUCK!

Tournament Survival: getting in good with "trouble hands"

Well, lately its been limping, grind, and short stacking deep into tournaments. And we've all faced this situation: staring down a K10 spades or 88 and having to make that tournament defining decision: time to push or time to fold?

When all is said and done, you hope for a live K10, but you know you have to hit to win, and AK, KQ, and KJ all have you dominated. 30% is bad money, and all those hands are capable of calling depending on the player and his situation. Remember, you're short stacked and a call is a reasonable prospect given the price of poker in these crucial late rounds. If the blinds are 300-600 and I have 7000-8000 chips, my price might be too high, but if I'm down to 4000, I really have to get my cards in good.

You need to count cards every time you consider getting in. Did two people limp in, or consider limping in then fold? They probably dumped or are playing one or your live cards or straight outs QJ, JK, A10. If there are two already in the pot, K10 is probably dominated in one direction and missing straight outs in the other, and one of them will call if the price is right. Keep in mind that there are big pair limp trappers out there. Just because you're short stacked and folding and waiting no reason not to be paying full attention to the manner of a player's limp in. Early limp ins are so often traps, but the deliberate manner in the play and careful observation should at least clue you into risk. Limping in might be a better choice if you insist on seeing a flop if you can't give up the opprtunity to win.

I have found that in any sophisticated tournament situation, such as late in any live tournament, the early position limp trap is so prevalent that the players who act after and want to play their cards will limp in themselves, risking BB specials in exchange for position post flop. These good players have a great post-flop game, usually, so your choice to limp and see a flop will see a flop, but you are troubled by three things: the possible early limp trap, the possible BB special, and the superior post flop player in position. You're going to have to flop pretty big to get paid here. 20% of your stack to gamble on K10 in middle position is a bad investment as a limp in: its a worse investment as a raise all in given the same hands which coordinated with yours and would have seen a cheap flop still represent dead outs for your crappy K10, or QJ, or similar difficult hand.

The only real place for K10 is a late position steal (short stacked) or early position steal (medium stacked at a tight, preferably short (7-8 player) table, where it actually has a prospect of being the closest thing to a premium hand dealt). K10 is therefore NOT a CALLING HAND or a RAISING HAND if you can expect a call (short stacked to a limper, ex). You need a deeper stack to play it effectively. Pick a better spot if you can.

On the other hand, a small pair can be HUGE in these situations. Once again, beware of limp traps, but in a situation where there has been a RAISE and at least one CALL (particularly where you read some hesitation from the caller, or worry from the raiser after the call) you may be able to read whether two A-high hands are in ahead of you. More often than not, in these deep-tournament situations, the raiser probably had the weaker ace (say AJ) and the caller has the better AQ or AK. In other words, the most likely situation when you push all in with a pair is that the original raiser will fold (because he was already worried about the call, and the call acts last) and the caller will call you (because AQ and AK on paper (aka Phil Gordian math) look like a very good gamble on a smaller pair and a very good call on a weaker ace).

SO MUCH of this analysis depends on your observation skills and ability to read your opponents (see every other instructive blog for a million examples). You do NOT want to rumble your 66 against AA or KK who smooth called to disguise strength. Use all your weapons to test strength. Ask for a chip count.

Here's another trick, especially when you expect a slow play big hand. Ask for the count before looking at your own cards. Focus yourself on the count and the demeanour of the player as the chips are counted. I don't care if you have 84 off in the hole here, and an instant fold when you see the cards. You have done a few things for your game here:

(1) Established a good poker habit which focuses and improve your observation skills generally and gives you important observations of a player you may need to call or reraise later if not now;
(2) Generally pissed off the player, since he knows you haven't looked at your cards: hopefully, you can geta good tilt response. If it did get under his or her skin, exploit this. I am not afraid of a little table talk, if I can get into a player's head. Ex: I am playing in the usual monday game. A player I am familiar with was at my starting table, and we was bragging about being so close to a final table in the last big series. Just big table talk. He then gets on a lucky streak, and at one point his K5 off played from middle position hits 2 pair and knocks out the player in the BB who hit a BB special smaller 2 pair. He isn't playing well, he's just getting lucky. And, eventually starts paying off. At one point he is in a battle of the blinds: he had raised from the BB and the SB made the call. He will have A10, his opponent Q-rag. The flop is Q high, no Ace, no 10, and the bragger bets to a check and is called. The next card is junk, SB checks, A10 bets, SB check raises all in for now a reasonably serious price. A10 cant get off the concept of his preflop superiority, and calls and doubles up Q rag. And then he comments about how he played Q rag against a raise as being bad play. He got outplayed because he assumed he had to be called with something (any small pocket pair has him beat there too of course) and then was upset that his opponent knew Q paired no kicker was the best hand because A10 was outread and outplayed. So I see that A10 is the kind of guy who can dish it out and can't take it. So I have to respond to his comment with a comment about his K5 victory being just as loose. And was he offended! Perfect. Can dish it out, can't take it. I can put a guy like this off his game to get paid. And did.
(3) Gotten an extra look at the original raiser, who is now reacting to both the count, the player's reaction to the count, and your show of strength by acting for a count: if you see weakness, ask this player for a count too!
(4) You're making a habit of asking for a count routinely rather than only when you have a potential calling hand, so there is no special tell because you asked for a count;
(5) If you haven't seen your cards you can't give off any tells of your own.
(6) Ideally you have obtained the time and information to understand where your opponents stand, which will very much help you decide whether this is your time if you do see a calling hand in the hole.

Now, here is the most important thing: You have looked before you leapt, and now you see 88. Best hand in an hour.

PUT ON THE BRAKES IMMEDIATELY.

This is how I went from top 10 to bust out in the Coast to Coast main event in day two. It was a TIGHT,TOUGH table in day two FULL OF QUALITY STACKS. I had few hands, and was just milking 50-60k and not improving. An All-in to a small raise and call with AK. An outplay with 99 and position on a AAJ flop for a medium pot. I was over tired from the adrenaline of the day before, but still playing my game.

Two my left are two older players, late forties or so. The table seems to have picked nemeses: I have butted heads with the guy across from me (for asking for a blind count). The two players to my left have squared off. And these two. I have been watching intently. The player closest to me (L) has had position and has used it very well to bully his opponent to the right (R). They have done this 2 or three times.

In this particular hand, R has the button, L the SB, I am the BB. The play folds to R, and he raises. This is an obvious steal situation. L looks at his cards, and is clearly intent on playing sheriff. R's raise was to 6000 (1/10 of the stack), the re-raise from L to 25000. It is clear L intends to take this down preflop. But is he that strong, or just strong enough to play sheriff?

One of the problems here is that I have never seen either player showdown a hand to help establish a pattern. But this has gone on for at least 2 minutes, I have formed an impression: R is stealing, L has a big enough hand to play sheriff, but weak enough to want to take it down preflop. He is not gambling here, and does not intend to gamble.

So my impression is AJ to AK.

I look at my hole cards. I see 88 and immediately push. I'd seen enough, right?

WRONG. R folds instantly, and L only semi-reluctantly makes the call. He has 10 10.

YOU SURE DON'T WANT TO HAVE TO DO THIS ANALYSIS POST-HAND WHEN YOU WERE AMONG THE LAST 50 PLAYERS IN A $2700 BUY IN MAIN EVENT WITH 50000 CHIPS AND BLINDS OF 1000-2000!

L had about 75,000 chips. His raise made him deeply committed to the pot. I was not going to induce a fold here. I have been in this situation myself re-raising from the SB with AJ and running into the BB. A pair as big as 10 10 is a real big hand in this three-way situation. AJ would also make the call.

At best, in other words, AT VERY BEST, my 88 is up against R and L BOTH holding Ax, ONE CALLER, and a MADE HAND of mine against 5 outs (66% to win) AND GUARANTEED I am in for my tournament life on a coin flip or a handicapped coin flip.

If I deliberate my cards just a little here, I can gauge a reaction and get that more of a read. Maybe I just pick a better spot.

R will disclose he had 77. If L had folded, R was the weaker player, and a raise from me has the right effect. But my reads were all wrong, and I had an opportunity to gauge their hands a little further, the alarm goes off and I pick a better spot.

The ultimate point is this: a full and complete picture (too many people want to see a flop in a barely raised or limped in situation, and the original raiser looks concerned) should say that your pocket pair is WAY AHEAD because your opponents need to catch each others cards. I remember such a read once, where I put my QQ in against AK and AK: another time, where I called a small raise with JJ, then watched a guy seriously consider his hand (I correctly read AJ) while another raised all in (correctly read as AK), causing raiser 1 (AQ) to fold, me to recognize that JJ was WAY AHEAD ( 72% or so). He caught a K, but the other players confirmed my read was perfect. The last time, I had 99 in the BB and went all in: only AK (3x blind original raiser) called called, and I announced he had dead cards: I caught a 9 on the flop, and watch his 4 flush river pair the board so that my full house beat his flush, but without an A or K to be found anywhere.

This, my friends, is how very good players play small pairs seemingly "fearlessly" in apparent "coin-flip" situations. They have accurately read their situation: Go Ask Al: he can tell you a story about calling for all his chips with 33 against AK and AQ and tripling up.

Sick, dude.

Happy pokering.

Back to talk about...renovations?

Truth be told, the month of September has only indirectly been about poker. The poker table demanded renovations! The first two pics had been conveniently selected to minimize the decrepit state of my dining room. Many hours of renovations later, hard work pays off. Third picture is my new dining room, inspired by the themes and beauty of the Crummer custom poker table.

Don't buy a Crummer custom table if you're not prepared to built a space suitable for it!

Well, I can't work three jobs. I only have one meager online $1300 prize to report so far this month, but it paid for the renovation materials and my ski pass for the winter.

The moral to this message is the same as the same and my poker message: hard work, patience, and attention to detail and the keys to success in this game and in renovations and in life. This room is a symbol of these ingredients. Time to leave the construction zone and get back into the poker zone....

More to follow as I play some satellites on the way to the BC poker championships. I also provided a free roll into a satellite as top prize in the debut game on the custom table. Hopefully, we can track Derek E's success along with mine over the next two months.

Been a while

Yes, been a lazy blogger. Never did finish the Coast to Coast main event story. The bluff and suckout for a huge pot to end the night. or the bad read with 88 to end the tournament.

Since, however, that experience has improved my patience, mental stamina, and most importantly, my poker face. $10,000 in 30 days in 3 separate midlevel tournaments not so shabby. We are leading to the BC poker championships, and I promise to write....

THE REAL NEWS

THE TABLE OF TABLES

Check out Crummer Poker Tables y'all. Maybe I can figure out the pics and the link up to make it easy on you. This bad baby is 100% custom designed and made by the owner of the company...my little reminder of what poker can accomplish and what it's yet to accomplish....

Main Event $3000 part II (of....): levels 3, 4 and 5

Back to the action.

I am disappointed but not dismayed at the break ending level 2. Big John and and Trailer Mouth have some nice stacks, I am among the poor with about 11,000 chips. I am not fond of being understacked at any stage of a tournament. It seriously limits my ability to speculate with interesting cards. But I had made some terrific reads, leading to good folds (calls? I wish).

When I raised 50/100 blinds to 375 with 10 10, and Trailer Mouth called with position, I put him on AK. When the flop was K garbage rainbow, I checked, and he value bet 500, I told him "the only hand I can put you on is AK", and mucked. Out of respect for the read, he confirmed it. He also told me he didn't have a clue how I played. Perfect scenario, but Trailer Mouth would actually avoid being in pots with me the rest of the day. He knew I had his number. Fact is, I told everyone else what his number was, and he confirmed it. He would play only lucky hands where people slammed into KK.

TJr will make a valiant effort to play his way out of his 2000 chip crisis point, until he runs into Trailer Mouth's KK. Say no more. Let's speak of his replacement.

He is an older guy, maybe 50, and his stack is similar to mine. He is immediately to my left. His stack, position, and newness make him a potential threat, but I will make a few plays and observations which will prove critical. Lets call him Small Ball, as that is how he plays

I have limped in with A9 for 100. We are late in level 2 (yes, this is titled levels 3 and 4, but let me set it up first). Small Ball raises to 300.

I HATE this raise. My limp in early position, and a 3x blind raise that simply invites not only my call, but every tom, dick, and harriet (no ladies at this particular table) to see a flop too. It reeks of a semi-trap, but it still invites so many drawing hands into it. I am last of say, 5 people to call.

The flop is 10 10 9. There are so many people that a 10 is an open possibility, and I am third of 6 to act. With 2 in front checking, I really want to test my pair here. I make a "stay out of trouble" bet that I hope to be consistent with a value bet with a 10: 600 into a pot of 1800.

Small Ball raises my bet to 1500. The rest of the field told, leaving me heads up to contemplate the bet. My bet has served the purpose of identifying a trap. I invite you to always make at least a small bet into a pot like this to expose the guy who wants to trap his trips. A smooth call where there is no draw is a sure tell.

This raise is not trips. Trips can't resist the greed and fears scaring off the better, because only 99 or A10 can call or raise. In a multiway pot here, J10 can't be sure he isn't outkicked by Q 10, K 10 or A 10, all very reasonable hands in this pot.

I announce my read to Small Ball and the table. "QQ or 77 I say", several times. I take my time. "No way you have the 10" I say. Am I exposing my cards with my talk? Maybe, but I think I might talk this way in a trap too, to convince a player I am weak. Really, I want to get a tell. Eventually, I will say "I can't tell which, so I have to fold", but really I did get one. My exposition of the fact I did not hold a 10 made him very comfortable with his cards. He had the overpair, not the underpair. He will confirm it. "Somewhere in the middle," he exposes. The answer is pretty much an admission he had JJ. The only other option is 88 and he was too comfortable to be sweating it with 88.

Okay, JJ = weakass raise. Noted.

Shortly after that, Small Ball will get into trouble in a hand he limped AK in with. He will lose a smallish pot that checks down to expose the hand. It is my policy when I am playing "tricky" to put myself in a position to not have to expose a trap play, buy betting small on the river, or whatever. So now I know he wants to play big hands small and tricky.

But Small Ball is not getting what he needs playing small and tricky. He will soon be a shorter stack than I, and this is how we will sit coming into level 3.

I myself want to play some tricky poker in order to maximize the ability to win a big pot to climb back to a reasonable position. I do not like the fact that 11,500 only doubles to 23,000 and remains a modest stack.

So, in a very similar situation in early position I am first to enter the pot and I hold QQ. Even though the blinds are only 75/150, I am prepared to trap, and simply complete the 150. Then things get interesting.

Small Ball announces a raise. He has the authority in his voice of a man who has found a hand to play with. He bets....ugh 500. Blech. Can this guy get out of his small ball game?

Interesting development....Big John, who is now seeing a LOT of flops because he has a LOT of chips (at least 35,000, maybe more) is in the BB and makes the weak bet call.

I am not particularly fond of this situation. I don't want a cheap ass, three way pot holding QQ, and I know Small Ball has a hand to call a raise or reraise with (but NOT AA or KK: you know I know, and if you don't, there are about 43 blogs behind this one to explain how I know: If you still have to ask, you'll never know, but at least you tried, and I thank you for reading). So I do what is generally considered a tell, a trap exposure, a reraise, to a reasonable sum, 1500. This was a VERY USEFUL BET. Small ball JUST CALLS, confirming he does not have AA or KK, because his call involves uncertainty. He has no idea what I have. Big John, still the flop monster calling station will also JUST MAKE THE CALL. He needs to see a flop, but I think its clear to him he is now hoping to catch a huge flop to check raise these needy short stacks with. Anyway, I put Small Ball on AK, which he now needs to be best hand, because his rope is thinning. He has about 8,000 left

Fine.

Flop time.

A Q 3

WOW, except for one little problem..........

ALL SPADES.

I have flopped amazing, but I will in no goddam way give up this 4500 pot which I created and I flopped to some flishy suckout ["flish" origin: mine. definition: some "fish" who will pay any amount to chase a flush and then catches it on the river; also describes the result of a a flish hitting that river..."That goddam flish caught his flish on the goddam river:]

I IMMEDIATELY recognise this as NOT A MADE FLUSH situation. This is just experience, but let me break it down: Big John LOVES calling with pocket pairs. He will legitimately check the flop, being first to act (and we have seen how he will small bet the nuts before), and I see clear disappointment on his face: if he had 88 (reasonable here) he wanted a small, small flop, or trips. Board way to big and way too scary, and he is good enough to know that that A is a killer.

His check being a clear surrender, AK of course CANNOT be of spades! The A on the board is a spade, duh! But there is no way I am giving up this pot to Small Ball, or allowing Big John to speculate with the 8 of spades (unlikely, but if the price and read are right...). My concern is that Small Ball's holding one big spade, and will try to manage the pot size until he hits.

The response: don;t get greedy. 4500 in the pot, about 9300 left. Take this sucka down with best hand while it is still clearly the best hand. What better form of protection than a bet that only the nuts (or someone nuts) can call?

ALL IN

Dealer counts my chips out. They lay there on the felt, begging to be taken.

Then something wonderful, magical, a miracle, happens.

Three breaths later...

Small Ball can't lay his AK down here. He needs to win a pot. He has NO IDEA WHY I WENT ALL IN! HE CALLS!

"set of ladies" I announce and turn over. He looks tragically shaken. You have a spade? I ask. He doesn't. Then he does something that really, really, really warms me to this guy.

He surrenders. He musks his cards. He doesn't pray for a miracle suckout and watch for it to happen. He concedes he was outplayed and outflopped, and walks from the table.

We all know, in detail, about the ULTIMATE SUCKOUT. The runner runner OMG 1.6% that turned final table gold into done in 7th. Read all about it, and how it led to my finding poker zen. Trailer Mouth, of course, champion of the little guy that he is, advocates staying at the table to watch runner runner spades split the pot, but very much appreciate the gesture of the beaten to accept he was beaten and thus maintain dignity in the face of defeat.

(as an aside, Amy, the donkey regular who was the recipient of that bad beat, when at the table together the next week, had forgotten all about it. I imagine the rest of her final table experience was forgettable too. She bad, bad poka playa. She have bad bad, poka face. She neva find Poka Zen if Poka Buddha slap her in face. I read this in a fortune cookie)

I will sit tight with my 22000 chips. It looks better, it feels better, but I have a lot of work to do. I will wait out my next double up opportunity.

In the meantime, I will watch Big John make big mistakes in big pots. He is playing TOO MANY POTS. He is trying to outplay people, but the table is quite sophisticated. One guy, already on the short stack after, like me, having to make good fold after good fold, and holding QQ from the BB, in a marginally raised pot with a low, garbage flop checks to the original raiser a big guy named Ryan (real name), who bets value, 600, leading to a raise to 2000, and then a reraise at it turns to him of 5000. When the original raiser, a good guy also looking for a spot, after some deliberation, and very much to my surprise, goes all in, this guy in the BB really goes in the tank, puts the re-re-reraiser on KK and folds his QQ! He has only 5000 left and he folds QQ! And out or respect, our re-re-raiser exposes his KK! This is how sharp this table is. I DID NOT put the guy on KK. To his credit, he had set up his raise by raising early with weaker hands earlier in the day, and there was no tell-tale as far as I can tell.

This is like, for many of us, going from undergrad to lawschool. We are used to having it easy, then we get tossed in with a bunch of brilliant players who test our egos and our skills.

Big John cannot outplay this table. Other than Trailer Mouth, who only plays huge hands and otherwise talks incessantly (he will GET VERY VERY ANNOYING, either telling us how to play poker, telling the dealer how to deal, or discussing Canadiana with his his disinctly redneck point of view. These are not your homeys, Cracker. Learn how to be PC in public dude. And yes I did pay for that call I made on the river, asshole), Big John is a small fish in a big pond. His first HUGE MISTAKE comes when what appears to be a buddy of his arrives to fill a vacancy beside him and to his left in seat 6.

Here is a VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON. Chinese males, in pots together, insist on pissing matches. Very, very, very small penis syndrome, I think. You can't reraise me, I reraise. Very much to their detriment. Lets discuss this. It will happen alot and be very relevant to my tournament results.

Okay. Big John's Buddy (lets call him Bud) is a creative player. He likes to outplay, but he always takes his time to reason and judge. He is also loose aggressive, and you can tell these guys know each other's game.

Bud has the button, and raises. Big John has the small blind. He clearly has a hand and reads the steal, and reraises. 1200 have become 6000. Bud thinks....then makes the call. The flop is 9 8 4ish and Big John, with big hand, continue bets, but, as he does, for value. Bud will deliberate and make the call.

These guys will bet, check, checkraise, blah blah, all the way to the river. The cards never get higher than 9. There is at least 20k in the pot. Bud will not let go of this pot, and Big John is first to act.

Big John has fired 3 bullets already. I SEE CLEARLY that he has built a big pot which he has MISSED but this investment can only be taken down with a bet. IT IS REALLY OBVIOUS that he has been lured into a big pot by a big ego problem. HE NOW HAS TO BET THE RIVER big enough to be credible and small enough to save his chips.

Big John bets 6000 on the river. Bud deliberates, AND JUST CALLS. He takes his time. He figured Big John out and turns over his A8 in response to big John's sooted AQ.

A very good player, perhaps one who knows his opponent too well, can read when his small ace which has hit the flop, perhaps for 2nd or 3rd pair, is ahead against the big ace. I have done this MANY TIMES. AK is in real trouble against A5 when the flop is 10 9 5, and if A5 knows what his man has, and AK keeps firing bluffets (new term: bullets fired when you hand is actually dead), A5 can check raise all in and get paid sometimes postflop.

So Huge MISTAKE BIG JOHN! Thanks for the info, baby.

Big John still has big chips, about 40 thousand. For now.

Dinner break time. I and Ryan wind up sharing a dinner table and discuss how lucky we are in this tough field that our big hands won us big enough pots to stay ahead of this game.

Soon after the break, blinds not 150/300 no ante, I get my real opportunity. I am first to open the pot in middle position and hold gold: KK. With 5 or 6 players to act, I need value here. I can't limp this in, and risk too many in the pot, and the chip stacks are now so troubled I can expect a raise. I elect a modest raise, to 800.

It is a good thing that I played pots early, sometimes raised, and limped in the QQ. It really disquises a hand. Many players will avoid a tricksy opponent they can't read. Trailer Mouth is smart enough to know he's not my calibre of player.

Big John, however, is a bit tilty now. He has squandered, oh say, 33,000 (wow, that's a lot) and still has 40,000 to play with. He refuses to really alter his game, and insists on playing a lot of hands. He is in the big blind and will make the call.

Big John is playing a wide variety of hands. He has a good poker face except when he thinks he's in trouble. I really have no idea what he called with.

The flop is 9 clubs, 8 clubs, 4 diamonds, a good, not a great flop for KK. 89 has two pair, 99 has me killed, 88 likewise, and 10 J clubs has a MONSTER DRAW. He could have any of those hands, and I need to know.

Big John will check the flop. I need information. I make a very standard bet in this situation, a bet I like a lot.

The pot being 1700, I bet 1200. Cheap to my opponent, and pot odds for most draws. Why offer pot odds? (A) If he flopped enormous, I should pick it up from his response. He has check raised and can do it again (B) I often can put a guy on a draw by inviting the call to see the draw.

Big John just calls. There is something he likes about his hand, and I am not sure what it is. HE DOES NOT HAVE A SET OR TWO PAIR. I don't see confidence: he has a hand, but he has concerns.

What we will discover, is that he does not have a clue what I have.

The turn is fantastic. 3 of hearts. No improvement for him, and he checks.

I am NOT LETTING OUR CALLING STATION SEE A CHEAP RIVER. He has me outstacked, I feel that KK is huge NOW, I have the chips to really set him off.

I'M ALL IN

The dealer counts out my remaining chips. 21,000 chips are protecting my 2000 chip investment to win a 4200 chip pot.

Big John is comfused. I am unresponsive. "Why so much?" he thinks aloud. "why so much?" He can't figure my bet out, but he has told me something. He has something good, but something less than the nuts.

He is thinking aloud about the range of hands I could have. A set maybe. What he doesn't put into play is how I have read him. What he has represented. A big stack willing to pay to catch a big draw.

But it is clear he doesn't have a big draw, he has a big hand short of the nuts. He really doesn't want to lay his hand down. The only thing I reveal, as he deliberates out loud, is me breaking the tension by stating "well, now I know what you have [an overpair, and only one of those beats me and calls instantly]". He responds to this with some desperation about how me knowing what he has isn't really what matters right now. This, if he had been attentive enough to notice, caused me to relax a bit and enjoy the tiniest, tiniest of smiles. I think he is going to call, and I know he is beat.

He does. It took 5 minutes but he exposes JJ. The river is trash. I double through and become table captain and chip leader.

Big John, having flamed out in the middle rounds trying to parlay early round luck, will fall victim to a big pair within 30 minutes of me cracking him back down to 20,000 chips.

I now have close to 50,000 chips and I can finally, finally, finally, feel relaxed. 150/300 blinds, hour levels, I have a huge stack. I can play any game I want and this table will fear my bets. Very Very VERY good situation to be in.

Do not lament Big John. I like Big John. He, like I, will learn much from his experience in the Main Event. He is a bright guy and a good player. He will probably tilt for a month over squandering that huge, easily won stack, but he will be stronger for it and I will respect his next bet should we next joust.

I will end the night's discussion there. Part 3 will be....interesting....

The Full Monty: $3000 main event (part 1 of however many it takes)

Hey there!


Okay, I'm in a talkabout poker mood now, so lets walkabout a couple of hands.

I have VERY LITTLE to say about the $1000.00 preliminary event other than I liked the structure generally (10000 chips and 45 minute levels) and that it played more like a regular weekly in slowed down, big stack form. I played a little too conservative, and regret a few pushouts when could have trapped. Not a perfect example of Poker Monster play, but I did get the heebie jeebies out. A good warm for the main event. Lasting 7.5 hours without really having quality hands in real payoff situations is a credit to my game. It was frustrating watching people pay off the guy to my left when he got paid off early flopping quad 9s and letting 55 catch a full house at the end, then people, over and over, walking into KK KK, KK, AK, and KK which he happened to be holding when they pushed in desperation. Must be nice to have a game handed to you.

I grinded out small pot after small pot, and chipped to about 22,000 at peak on the basis of strong post-flop play, but the only race I was in was my last hand. A lack of cards/action through the last 2 hours forced my stack down to 11,500, simply an unacceptable quantify 30 minutes left into day 1 with 600/1200 blinds commencing day two. I was not greedy: I had a simple goal of 30k ending day one, enough to be able to remain patient, but I wasn't going to limp into day 2 and pray I catch AA or KK and action in the first 2.5 hours while watching my chips ante and blind off. When a player I knew well raised 3x the blind UTG I knew he had a hand: he only plays PPs or AK in that position this late in the game, but when play folds to me and I have AQ, I know I'm unlikely to see better in the next 15 minutes, and I'd rather take the day off and rest up for the main event than bother getting up the next day. I am exhausted. Playing constantly from the mediocre stack means playing for your life potentially in every pot you play. AQ good enough. QQ good enough to call. I really don't care. More luck to him.

Better luck to me in the main event.

It was a good warm up, and I take the day off completely to rest my poor dehydrated brain. As a result I am well rested with a good night sleep and a good feel for how to get through a long day of poker in what will be a slower, deeper, more serious game.

My initial plan is to get involved early. I have 15000 chips, and levels one and two are 25/50 and 50/100. I DO NOT WANT A TIGHT IMAGE. I want two things: A good feel for my opponents at the table, and and opportunity to exploit my creative skills with interesting hands while the price is right to play them. It will turn out that my game does not result in any chip improvement, but my chip investments will turn out extremely valuable in information used to make critical plays later.

Much of the table play will centre on BIG JOHN, a late 20's oversized Chinese guy who sits in seat 7: I am in seat one. In this first, absolutely critical hand, BIG JOHN is in the big blind. There has already been a limper in the pot, blinds are 25/50, and I hold K10 off suit: a marginal hand, but dirt cheap to play, so I limp in too. The guy beside me, who has a voice and look of a 40-something TJ Cloutier (TJr, if you will) also limps in. There may be another limper or two: The pot is unraised, and BIG JOHN simply checks.

The flop is K 8 3 rainbow. There is no draw at all and I have top pair. I have no feel for the other players in the pot. I have an acceptable hand in a limped in pot. It might be the best hand.

BIG JOHN makes a small bet: 150. I make a smooth call. TJr makes the call too. All others get out.

I have no idea where I stand. BIG JOHN is inscrutable. My impression is that was a top pair no kicker standard probe bet from the blinds. I cannot understand why the smooth call to my left. I am, however, suspicious. There is no draw on the board.

The turn is a trash card. BIG JOHN makes a decent bet: 600. With 600 in the pot, the pot size bet doesn't scare me. I make the call, but I am still suspicious. I am prepared to call some value bets until the river here, but then TJr then does something VERY SURPRISING.

There is an aura of "enough is enough" now emerging from TJr. His demeanour had been very calm, but now it is agitated. Then he BETS BIG. 6500! WTF?????

I have already seen him play some weird hands. He could easily have K8 or K3 suited. As far as my standing in this hand, something is very wrong.

it gets worse (for him). BIG JOHN now emerges from his shell. He has the look. The agitation. He is ALL IN

?????!!!!!!!

"I know where I stand in this hand" I say as I lay down. TJr is in the tank briefly, but makes the call. With AA.

TJr is beat. BIG JOHN turns over 88, and TJr is crippled.

This early boon for BIG JOHN is both his blessing and his curse.

Soon after, again BIG JOHN is in the BB in a limped in or barely raised pot. A VERY READABLE player, a white guy with a trailer park attitude who talks too much (Trailer Mouth is a good name) is in the pot with him.

The flop is 494 and BIG JOHN makes a small bet Trailer Mouth makes a small call. He has a demeanour, tho, of a big hand. I can see it.

The turn is a 6. BIG JOHN makes a MEDIUM BET of 800. He is betting VERY SIMILARLY to the prior hand. Trailer Mouth makes a value raise (obviously, I can see he has a monster hand) to 2000. BIG JOHN makes a cautious call.

The river is irrelevant. BIG JOHN looks suspicious, and checks. Trailer Mouth makes a solid bet of 5000 (his best play of the night...he is a shitty, abc player with no poker face who will get lucky a couple of times waking up with KK against a pot committed player's raise, but he thinks he's a player. He's just a yokel playing by the book) This bet is pot size, but very big in relation to the timing of the game and the preciousness of our starting stack, but he is not at risk.

BIG JOHN is in the tank briefly, but agonizing makes the big call. he has a big hand. 66. Trailer Mouth has 99.

BIG JOHN practically is crying. He put his man on 99. He had probe-bet the flop (as any would, a good flop for 66) and his gut said 99. Even turning the full house, his gut said SLOW DOWN. He feels like he dodged a bullet.

BIG JOHN had his head up and was in the zone, but refused to fully trust his instincts. That gut will save you every time! Maybe 1/2 his gut wanted to to prove the other 1/2 right, but this semi mistake will be the first of several critical ones. (I am leading up to something....) BIG JOHN will become rather flustered and confused as his head and his gut continue to battle....

I will continue the tragic story of Big John very shortly.....

Tournament Update: short version

Well, 20 hours and 3 days of poker later, yours truly is knocked out in 50th place in the main event after entering day 2 in a very healthy 10th place with 67600 chips. 4 hours of no cards later, 88 looked very very good in the BB while two jerks were overbattling from the button and small blind and ignoring me.

10 10, having overbet to 25000 to sheriff the button steal, found himself committed to my remaining 56k when, after analyzing these two most of the day and on this particular hand, I liked what I saw in front and in the hole.

If both these dudes are A high I am big favorite. I knew I was going to get called. There is a time in every tournament to gamble.

I sleep now. The time to fully debrief will come.

Tournament Eve ramblings: Stay cool, m....f.... y'all know the rules

Okay! 1 sleep til main event jr commences tomorrow. I really like the fact that this $1000.00 event is just a warm up to the $3000.00 event.

I also like the fact that I cleaned house last friday playing with the bros, and survived a field of 1000 in a $1 turbo rebuy online yesterday to parlay $5 total buy in into $450 coming in 3rd.

These cheap turbo rebuys (UB has always had one: the new schedule made it a $5000 guaranteed and starts it at 9:00 UB time)have always been a bit of bread and butter for me. I think I've won a dozen outright. But this one is a bit different with such a large field and big pot relative to cost. Given that, after a recent withdrawal, my UB account was a bit short and I had squandered some more expensive opportunities that day, and once I had gotten a decent stack, I committed to playing strong and making a run at it.

Playing strong does not always mean playing strong cards: it means putting your chips in in a few fair fights and gambling. K8 looks huge when you're constantly running from blinds which keep creep at 1/10 of your stack no matter how often you seem to be improving. Sometimes it is just a matter of making sure you are heads up with 2 live cards. Throwing in with A4 is never a smart move: it practically guarantees being a 30% dog if called, and often in these, calls have to be expected. No one lays down AQ or 99 in these things. 96 sooted is in a fair fight with AQ.

This is good comparable pressure to what I expect to face in the next 5 days. In these games, I may be looking at 45 minute and one hour levels, and 2-3 hours before the levels reach 1% of the starting stacks, but the time will come when a bad beat puts me in desperation mode and forces me into more gambling and erratic play.

I find that a little erratic play is MORE effective in protecting your blinds than tight play. If I will call or raise with 69 and gamble, will you attempt to steal with A7? I will have to play fearless and follow my guts and my reads where I sense weakness to win this. BLuffs are post-flop plays: these are gambles.

Let us, on a similar topic to last big blog, discuss the opposite, bluffs that are traps. We discussed a number of cases of how to get paid with trips: let me give you a great example of how I parlayed 4000 chips into 13000 chips in one hand when the blinds were 150/300 in last week's Wednesday $100 casino game.

These stories emphasize the key importance of live play strategies vs. online. I did some magnificent trapping online yesterday with AAs and KKs to maximize chip results in the turbo, but that's easy. Keeping your cool and shifting gears effectively in live play to maximize requires, mainly experience and understanding.

I am in the BB. I have paid 300, leaving me 3700 in chips. I am a mediocre stack with one viable play left in any raised pot.

UTG limps in. He will not be a factor in the hand.

The next player has double my chips, and limps in. He is an older white guy, and my observations put him at a pretty conservative player. Lets call him Steve.

Beside him is an older oriental guy, the kind of guy who will raise any ace. Lets call him Joe. Joe has about 10,000 chips. He limps in.

Play folds to me, including the SB, and I now wake up to look at AA.

Rockets in the pocket, three players interested in a flop, and I will play out of position the whole hand. Opportunity is at hand, but with only 1350 in the pot, 300 my own, the last thing I want to do is scare off my opponents. If I panic, wait to long, or get that buzz that says monster going, I will get nothing but the limps.

"I'll raise" I say calmly. How much? I don't announce immediately. I sense the limpers are watching me. I decide that the "standard raise", to 900, is right here. I do not wish to take enormous time debating this. I want my raise to be done quickly and efficiently, without spills, nervous ticks, or obvious deliberation suggesting "how do I get paid here?"

This is a good bet and a bad bet:

The good:

- With one or two callers, I build a pot of 2550-3150, allowing me to bet the pot with my remaining chips on the flop:
- It is standard enough to be relatively meaningless: it is a value raise, but looks to the unfamiliar as a weak steal attempt from someone who needs to get some chips and lacks much experience to know that this sum is too small to steal, when pot odds of 600 into 1950 supports anyone with 30% to win calling even if they knew I had AA: the BB raise is also such a common steal, that I can raise here while disguising the strength of my hand

The bad:

- You put this value raise together with ANY tell common to holding KK or AA and a smart player picks up the warning signals and gives his hand up, so I gotta play cool, motherf*cker, y'all know the rules (see The Roots album, The Tipping Point: great song, and sort of THE POINT).
- I have offered great pot odds to all three players, one of whom is the loose and lucky type, and will have to play out of position against who knows how many callers, all of whom have invested in the pot and want to see a flop.

I get the good and the bad. All three call. We now have a nice pot of 3750. I have 3100 left. As soon as I see call #3, I am looking at my remaining chips. I am expecting that the whole thing will be in as soon as the flop comes down. I am not greedy. Maybe top pair will call. This is a good pot.

FREEZE

The flop

A spades
Q spades
6 hearts

GEAR SHIFT TIME

It was the best of flops. It was the worst of flops. Now is NOT the time to be indecisive.

What do you do here? Top possible set with flush draw on board and 3 players ahead?
Plan A is easy. Put your chips in. Practically guaranteed to get two folds, and a maybe call with a flush draw from a deep stack.

But lets face it. AA comes only once every so often, and even less when you need it. Flopping AAA is 11% of holding AA. Pretty damn rare. Right now, I have the nuts, subject to an outdraw, and 75% to win (keeping in mind if the board pairs, I am saved from a flush) means I can gamble my fate and take advantage here.

So I check.

I check quickly. I do not deliberate more than 7 seconds here, probably less. I need to be decisive, I need to be quick. I need to credibly CHECK (see last blog and PHil Hellmuth's comments on check tells: Jamie Gold, you should read this blog and learn something)

Why is a CHECK the right move? Any bet says "oh boy, an Ace, and since I have two of them, I will NOT get action given that I RAISED, and any ace in this pot limp-called, meaning weak kicker probably suited, and Ax spades for flush draw here is impossible) and NO ACTION is the result. AK protecting itself is the read, and the bet is respected.

A CHECK suggests one of two things, which are both VERY CREDIBLE: (1) my steal is a bust or (2) my JJ, 10 10, or 99 is a bust. A little bit of disappointment in my body language is all it takes.

So I check. UTG checks.

Steve bets. He is, hmmm, deliberate...confident....CALCULATED. Steve has A HAND. EVENTUALLY a solid 2500 comes out Hmmm....

My gut immediately suggests he flopped a set. limp followed by afforable raise by a call: small PP. This is not QQ. This is 66.

And let's comment on this bet, and compare it to the last big blog. He will turn out to have 66. A on board, raised pot, I have a set. I will get action, possibly from the desperate seeming raiser from the BB....bet value to raise the pot size.

GOOD BET

HANG ON....

Joe is thinking. He is playing with chips. He likes this flop. If I have AAA and Steve has 666, Joe has..oh oh..a draw. But I contemplated the draw when I decided to check, and I accepted my odds with the gamble.

While we wait fror Joe to respond, lets talk about my response. I am the semi-pot committed short stack who raised then checked. That 2500 bet is a lot of my stack. So I play with my stack. I separate 2500 in big chips from 600 in small chips. I weigh them in my hands. I continue to sell my hatred of this situation EVEN THOUGH Steve's eyes are on Joe and Joe's mind is on Steve's bet. The last thing I can do here is get excited.

Lets face it, nice big pot, Steve having made a bet that specifically made him NOT POT COMMITTED, if I have K 10 spades here, I LOVE that flop. Especially if I am a gambler. The size of the pot has become very tempting.

Joe will eventually RAISE ALL IN here. In the meantime, I am sitting there with apparent impatience, apparent contempt, apparent disgust. When Joe finally commits his stack, I with some hesitation, and apparent resignation, declare "looks like I'm priced in here." and put my chips in.

HERE'S WHAT IS IMPORTANT: even with only 600 of my chips left to call here, I stay in character. I don't spaz out and throw my chips in with excitement. But this is because AT NO TIME AM I ACTUALLY DISGUISING A HYPER, EXCITED ADRENALYZED STATE. I am calm, and remain calm.

LET ME MAKE THIS CLEAR: I AM NO ACTOR. In drama class, I used to giggle through my lines.

Steve calls all in, and shows his 66. Joe has 64 of spades. While this improves his draw against my set slightly, by holding the case 6 preventing a 66 pair on the board, holding that 6 kills Steve's set, while I still have the case A, three Queens, or runner runner turn card to kill a flush. The computer says 69% to win, and I will take those odds any day to parlay 4000 chips to 13000 chips with 30 to go and blinds of only 130/300.

I WAS NOT ACTING. I hated my hand, my situation, my callers, that flop. I hated them because I have seen so many AA cracks. I have had Aces full of nines fall to quad nines. I have seen my trip AAA fall to flush draws, and QQQ fall to runner runner flushes. AA is so full of expectation, that the disappoinment of seeing them cracked is an easily available memory to use to calm you down. I had AA cracked earlier that night by 44 on a ridiculous 343 flop (ordinarily, I love a tiny paired board with a big overpair to protect me from a flopped 2 pair).

THE KEY TO THIS HAND was the experience I have, which allowed me to identify the scenario, shift gears, and make good swift decisions, all without giving off any information to disguise my monster flop. I was complemented by an observing player, who had no clue I was holding such a big hand.

I had to carry through this in a hand that, from start to finish, might have been 4-5 minutes in length.

Just remember: "I hate AA. I will get sucked out on." It is your mantra. AA is your hot date, but you know she said yes to you on a dare, and you'll get no action from her because you're out of her league and you both know it. You want her. You hate her. Even when she offers up a tease, hate her. Until you clear that river card, hate her like every hot coed you were afraid to ask out in college.

This is of course, not a suckout story. No runner runner 5th six, no spade.

During my ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, it occurs to me that my mark must have put me on a flush draw because of my bet and show with the prior hand drawing nut flush. Her instincts were dead wrong.

I saw her buying into tomorrow's tournament today when I picked up my tickets.

Good luck to me.

A small aside

Incidently, I also intend to share with you what I I hope and expect to be a very unique creation, my own custom-made poker table, courtesy of Crummer Poker Tables and my wallet...including a hyperlink, of course.

No tells here. You will have to wait.

Been a long time been a long lonely lonely lonely.....time

[In an interesting twist of Poker Karma, I got 6 paragraphs into this long overdue, overly long blog only to have an errant key stroke wipe out the whole text. Undeterred, I start again...I intend to save religiously the second time around]

The Poker Monster, after 5 months of "wandering the desert" feeding on sng's and $1 turbo rebuys while riding out a huge bad beat streak, has emerged reborn with new insights and a fresh perspective to go with a new level of his game. It took a MOTHER of ALL BAD BEATS to find this higher plane of poker consciousness. Like all good karmic philosophers, allow me to take a VERY LONG TIME to make my point.

Along the way we'll talk some poker. Final table and key bubble poker, especially about traps and big draws from and against the blinds.

The Poker monster hit some hard times since winning $8500.00 on an online freeroll and his satellite into a major tournament. Sinus surgery, minor but painful, undermined my play during a $1,800.00 game with 500 entries. A final table split agreement with 4 people left on the Monday $60 Casino game gave me a certain $1400.00 over a good shot at $2000 over a tired field, but began a 3 month bad beat streak which turned into a frustration streak which EVENTUALLY turned my focus back to playing as well as I could, only to LEAD UP to the ULTIMATE FINAL TABLE BAD BEAT which, as my "rock bottom", in fact caused a whole new perspective and insight into that enigmatic ghost in the probability machine I, as an ignorant mortal, have occasionally alluded to as "poker karma".

I am now through the looking glass, people. But I get ahead of myself. First let me speak of the results of my rebirth, and then of my path to poker enlightenment.

Since the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT, I have played possibly my best poker. I made sick calls and huge laydowns to make my way to the final 4 of the Monday $60 Casino game, and then INSISTED we not chop the pot. Because I was fresh, alert, and in the zone. I had made a call with QJ of hearts to bust a short stack with 88 to make it there. I had folded AJ sooted to a 4x under-the-gun bet, because I looked up after reaching for the 1200 chips, only to see the raiser bristling in anticipation of action as only a big hand does, and laying down to find the raiser's AK up against a short stack with AA. Because I was still playing with my head up and my mind fresh, while others were worried about work the next day and their bedtimes.

And LO, UNTO ME was a raise all in and immediate reraise all in after I opened 4 handed with 88. And I PAUSED, because one of my opponents had a preflop monster, and FOLDED TO SEE the 8 on the flop and A7 in terrible against KK. But I was content with my solid laydown, because, LO, I KNOW when some Joe holds two cowboys, and I had barely committed 5% of a huge stack to see 60% at risk for a three way pot. BECAUSE the ZONE belonged to the MONSTER and to no one else.

Had I called, I knock 2 people out and have a 10 to 1 advantage against the remaining short stack. BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I will be patient, and watch our new chip leader stumble with his chips and keep the short stack in only to fall to KK himself overplaying 67 and flopping 722.

AND LO, THINE SHORT STACK opponent now was leader heads up. And LO, I hear again those sick, sick words of the weary: "LET US CHOP THIS POT and together DWELL in the land of Milk and Honey".

BUT THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. I refuse his entreaties. I intend to get Biblical here.

Our weary opponent makes his first stumbling attempting to raise too much. He has announced his raise from the sb/button, but has failed to complete his raise, adding his announcement to the SB of 4k only. He fumbles and drop chips completing the bet after his error is drawn to his attention by the dealer.

SOME of you UNENLIGHTENED may put our stumble on a hand, the nervousness of holding a monster, but THE ZONE BELONGS TO ME. We have played the final table for an hour now. I have observed every play he has made. I observe all of this before I look to my hand and see AJ, and move all in instinctively, confidently.

And he tells me what the gut already knew. He was making a move with junk.

The tide has turned. I have won 90% of my races at the final. AJ beat 99 calling all in with two even stacks. Sick call, J on the window. 55 calls to beat a short stack AK. Our prior big stack called with 66 and I needed to steal or double with K10. 10 on the window holds through.

That reraise all-in sealed my momentum, and I pushed my opponent around preflop and post flop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not, until I had him exhausted and his chips at 50% of mine.

AND LO, UNTO ME LAY TWO THIN DUCKS, MEATLESS, BONY, BUT LARGE AS LIFE.
ALL IN I DECLARE, BUT ONLY PUT THE CHIPS TO COMPLETE THE BLIND
MY WEARY OPPONENT, UNAWARE, ANNOUNCES RAISE...
I'M ALREADY ALL IN, I TELL HIM, AND HE CALLS
THE RESIGNATION IS THERE, EVEN AS HE TURNS OVER AQ

AND MY DUCKS SURVIVE 4 SPADES TO RIVER A STRAIGHT.

Why all in with 22? Because, children, because the ghost in the machine had whispered in my ear...

I will parlay my 1900 into outplaying 76 people to earn one of 4 seats in a $220.00 satellite for entry into the $1000.00 and $3000.00 buy-in main events of the major CPT event being hosted by my local casino in a week. And earning it sick and dirty. Surviving an early bad beat (A10 check raising all in into my AQ on an A high flop and turning a 10) to have to race 33 against AJ and 10 10 against AQ to finally get a chip stack with a comfort zone, then out playing a loose aggressive "young gun" who liked to back talk reraising him all in with 88, outplaying another with 88 and a Q J 9 flop, and raising the same "young gun" with A4 (that's right. Ace-four. Off suit) when he cut off raised with J9 spades and was "pot committed" to the call (see earlier blogs, Mr. Young Gun, about pushing short stacks in the blinds). A4 held up, and this kid was just incredulous when I told him I knew I was ahead (BUT NOT HOW I KNEW) just as I had talked him out of calling my 88 earlier by telling him I put him at 30% to win when he tried to talk me into information.

I am a very polite live player, but if someone wants to back-talk and trash talk me, I am happy to play back.

Young gun will bust in 6th. I will burst the bubble making an instacall with AJ clubs against the short stack's push with A3 hearts and seeing the J on the window.

I will follow up online the next day putting $20 into a field of 400 and coming home with $775 after spending the first 90 minutes of the game trapped with no more than my starting stack.

THE "ZONE" IS DEFINED SIMPLY: IT IS THE SUM OF THREE THINGS

(a) I HAVE A COMPLETE FEEL FOR MY OPPONENTS AND THE WAY THEY PLAY
+
(b) I HAVE THE PATIENCE TO BE OBSERVANT BEFORE MAKING ANY COMMITMENTS
+
(c) I HAVE A KARMIC SENSE OF DESTINY OVER THE TWO CARDS I HOLD

often, (c) really is a function of (a) and (b) It was to burst the bubble in the satellite. Sometimes, the equation in a race situation is more like this:

(c) = ((a)squared + (b) squared)/ G
where G is what the Ghost in the Machine has whispered into my ear.

On that fateful Monday, the Ghost told me to fold 88, even though an 8 was coming. I then won clean through superior play rather than through pure luck, providing me with the additional confidence to play sick and strong to win my buy-in for the biggest two events I have ever had the privilege to play. My fold was justified by my read of my players, in spite of my lucky flop, just as my fold with AJ earlier in the tournament in considering an opening raise of 1200, because I stopped to play with my chips, and look up to see the look of the raiser in anticipating my action, and then folding to see his AK fall to AA. Both laydowns confirmed I was in THE ZONE, which can be far more important than winning the pot.

I know no path to this enlightenment, other than the truly random path the Ghost may choose for you. I will tell of my path soon.

Let me talk some hands first. I just went to a seminar highlighted by lectures by Annie Duke, Phil Hellmuth, and a few also-rans. Interestingly enough, Annie Duke's math-based lesson was in many ways identical to my earlier blogs, including all the reasons why suited connectors are, mathematically, unplayable. Her example was 78 sooted. I have ranted similarly about 10 J sooted and off, but I will continue to play 78 sooted, simply because it is often good on a 7 high or 8 high flop, which often has straight outs to go with your top pair in situations where people in the pot are playing hands above this flop like, for example, J10 and JQ. J10 never hits top pair without being outkicked by a hand in the pot.

Annie Duke's poker strategy is based on very sophisticated math which is far in advance of the "basics" found in, say, Phil Gordon's teachings. In fact, when asked of good poker books, Annie and Phil commented on many, including Slancky and Harrington, but never breathed the word "Gordon". Phil Gordon was only mentioned for sucking out on Phil Hellmuth's AA with 99 in the only WSOP final table Mr. Gordon ever made. ENOUGH SAID? Annie will have a new book out soon, 500 pages on post flop play. I will read it, and can recommend it blind on the strength of her lecture today. Very simply, her math message is pretty identical to mine. Where she and I may disagree is that I will play looser in an early game with chips I feel comfortable speculating with in a hope of catching that huge double-up opportunity ("scary play") vs Annie's more conservative formula based on raises, steals, and made hands("tight play"). She has some excellent comments on table image. Very sophisticated analysis. I will look forward to comparing her 500 pages of notes.

Okay, math, odds, putting a guy on a hand...

Lets talk about playing flush draws at critical times in tournaments.

Example one:

[Pay attention kids, because this is the same final table and the same player who delivered me the ULTIMATE BAD BEAT...I've had AAAA cracked, but this is worse]

Final table, $100.00 Casino Wednesday game, I have played excellent to get there, have an average stack of 30k in chips, blinds are 800/1600, two short stacks are already gone, but we have only played 5 hands. I am first to act in the middle with AJ clubs and I raise to 4000. This is the first hand I've played, and 5 players at the table are unfamiliar to me, including the 30 something oriental woman in the BB, who makes the call.

Every time I am at a new table, I try to be very observant in order get a feel for my opponents, and this is now exception. I am watching her eyes through my sunglasses as the flop comes down. I am not looking at the flop, only her reaction to it.

I see disappointment. Clear and obvious disappointment.

I look at the flop. It is 5 high two clubs.

Seeing the flop and her disappointment, I really can think of no better option here.

All in.

She folds.

I show.

Why all in? Aren't I bluffing for my tournament life here?
No, not at all. I am, in fact protecting the best hand. 5 high is of course, 5 4 2. Because it is clear her hand needed a flop, I clearly have a huge number of outs. A, J, 3 for a straight, any club for nut flush. 17 outs is, roughly, (without dead-out counting) 61% ahead of even 10 10 here, and 10 10 loves that flop, not hates it.

Even if I assume I was dominated preflop by QQ or AK, I still have 14 outs, which is even money (50.4%, but my read post-flop confirmed my impression preflop that she was simply defending the BB. It is more likely, then, that I also had the best hand preflop, perhaps dominating. For her to continue here, she is gambling with probably 4 or 5 outs, assuming she has two live overs like Q 10. She gets 5 if she has a club, and I have to take one away. Her best two live/one club scenario forces her to pick up some life at 18% with two to go, while a full 13 of MY outs which will hit 47% of the time and CRUSH her caught Q and 16 of MY outs crush her caught 10 58% of the time.

The last thing I want, however, is a Q or 10 of hearts on a turn card I gave up for cheap, giving my opponent the confidence of top pair and dropping chances of winning in half. I have the best hand because it has dominating POTENTIAL against an opponent who has completely whiffed. If I price someone in for a turn card, with say, a 6000 bet into the 11,000 pot (remember the sb and antes) I gave up control of the hand and possibly a pot. I did not need to play this hand for a big pot, and I cannot trap an opponent with mere potential because shit happens.

So why show?

It is early in the final table. I want to demonstrate a few things which will benefit me in the long run:

(a) I am telling the field that I am going to play the final table aggressive, fearless, and to win;
(b) Less sophisticated players will think I am merely loose-aggressive and think they can play me for double ups, while sophisticated players who paid attention to the flop will understand the math as well as I and perhaps clue in that I also do, giving me action where I want it and respect where I need it: The former sees my move as semi-bluff (Phil Gordon on his good days, or a novice read of Doyle Brunson's Supersystem), the latter as a strong play with a strong hand from someone who understands the whole math of the hand. (Annie Duke)
(c) I will play this opponent again, have a good read on her, I have put her in the former category, and want to set up a trapping opportunity for later (I will eat these words!!!!!!.......wait for it)


[How bizarre...blogger.com is now autosaving like a hot damn]

Okay, here's an example of a similar nature from the seminar:

This is Shawn Rice, whom I consider to be a middling pro. He is an official Ultimate Bet pro, so he is also a guest speaker [Is this a clue to Poker Monster's secret online identity?] His lecture focuses on playing weak $1/2 cash NLHE tables online to maintain your bank roll. He will play a hand where both he and his opponent make big mistakes. These mistakes will not only tell you how to beat Shawn Rice by playing weak at cash tables, but also illustrate the steps I discussed above which both players missed to make mutual mistakes.

Here's the hand.

SR is in the cutoff with QK diamonds and raises to $7 into the blinds, and the BB calls. The BB only has $80 to SR's $200.00 The flop is identical as my example, 5 4 2 diamonds, and Shawn's reasoning is identical: two overs and a flush draw. However he is missing a few pieces of the puzzle, and his draw is not as strong either: there is no git shot straight and he doesn't KNOW he has two overs, or at least live cards, on his opponent. ITS A CASH GAME. PEOPLE DEFEND THEIR CHEAP ASS BLINDS. PEOPLE ALSO CAN HAVE BIG HANDS IN THE BLINDS AND PLAY WELL FROM THEM.

Shawn has no read at all from his opponent. The BB bets weak, $8, and, IN SPITE OF AN EARLIER EXAMPLE WHERE HE TRAPPED WITH A SET OF EIGHTS BY THE SAME OPENING BET INTO THE SAME POT IN THE SAME POSITION(which I will discuss later), SR puts that weak bet as weakness and BETS THE POT (and simply by pressing the bet pot button, which is lazy and stupid. It says to an online opponent that I am lazy, thoughtless, and aggressive, often meaning a bluff or semi-bluff) This bet is big. $31. IN SPITE OF THE BET COMMITTING THE BB TO 1/2 HIS STACK, BB JUST CALLS.

And SR still has NO READ when the 7 spades hits the turn. To a BB check, SR BETS THE POT and GETS CALLED. Rice got no information AT ALL from the called over-raise.

QK and QQ now show down and a King sucks SR out on the river. UGLY.

The BB was trapping a player who, by his own admission, continue bets every raise he makes. Was that a good play, in spite of the suckout? NO.

Why not?

Well, you spend an hour with SR at a cash table, and you find that he raises, but he is not reckless. There is usually a "raisable" hand behind him whether he hit or missed. Maybe he bets to much but he could very well have a hand that could beat QQ eventually.

It is fine to exploit his aggressive nature, but you must to it safely. QQ is good on that flop, but consider the range of hands SR may have made the raise with. QK is out there, but so are MANY A-x combinations, including A-x sooted.

Not even considering the flush draw, A-x on that flop has, effectively, TWO OVERS ON QQ: any 3 and any A. This is MORE dangerous than AK with two to go, because there are four 3's as opposed to three K's to draw from. Would you trap with QQ if you know your opponent has AK? Hell no. Odds to hell, we have ALL SUFFERED the overplayed AK catch up to QQ on turn and river. 21.6% to DISASTER IN A BIG POT. If you give him 25% to hold the two diamonds as well, throw in another 8% or so to disaster, JUST BY ANALYZING HIS LIKELY RANGE OF HANDS as opposed to a more accurate read. A more accurate read understands that odds are even here. With only a coinflip odds, who do you want to have to make that coin flip decision? You, or him? Bet for strength, and he does. Trap for value, and you have already decided you are the gambler.

QQ got greedy here. I liked the small post flop bet. But when the response is a lazy BET POT button click, WHY IN HELL against a real player would you give him a free card with a smooth call? and then guarantee him a river by check calling the turn? $40.00 profit out of this is plenty, when you can reraise all in for $40.00 more and force SR into a decision. If you have $100 more to reraise with, it is a MUCH TOUGHER decision.

You simply cannot get greedy like this without THE NUTS. If this was a short-stacked final table scenario, the temptation to trap might be much greater, but it shouldn't be. When you are offered a guaranteed pot post-flop because you have a strong hand and a good read, this pot offers you a 50% increase on your stack WITHOUT RISKING ANY CHIPS by simply slamming the door shut post-flop and post-raise. You will need those chips waiting for another opportunity.

In other words, QQ here is really identical to my AJ clubs on the same flop for actual strength. I will trap on occasion here, but only against opponents I can bust while affording to lose against them all in, and that is still no excuse for not putting my opponent on a hand or likely hand to the best of my ability and acting accordingly.

If the BB here sets up his pre- or post-flop bet up to an amount set up to give SR some folding odds, such as a small raise preflop which induces a "pot odds" call (total bet $15 maybe), or, better, check raises the flop, because lazy Shawn will click the BET POT button into a $15 pot, making a check-raise of $65.00 into $30 pot not only signal your opponent to a trap, which you want, while making a call with his flush draw marginal. Its a cash table, so you can always rebuy when Shawn sucks out (he was only 25% on the turn), but this trap can only be made in a critical time in a tournament when you can put your opponent on a complete bluff, which usually only occurs when the raising and call make a short stack pot committed preflop. Against a good player with decent stack, you have guaranteed your opponent will be looking for his outs with 2 to go.

Okay, trapping in the blinds, after catching a set: first, Shawn Rice's example:

Again this is cash and on-line, and SR smooth calls a button raise to $10 with 88 from the SB. Both players have $200 or more chips. The flop is AK8 two clubs, but in a heads up situation I am happy for the A and don't care about the flush draw, and so is SR.

SR will bet $8 and sees a lazy pot bet to $46.00. He will act just like the QQ and smooth call to see a J or spades, making two clubs and two spades.

SR has made an excellent read here. This was just a button raise, and the guy is continuing, trying to represent an Ace. Shawn just checks, and a HUGE pot bet (don't to this folks. Size your bets PERIOD so that it looks like there is thought to them) of $120.00 is the result, leading to SR raising all in to about $160, and, amazingly, a Q3 hearts bluff with a gutshot to the river calls and misses for a big cash double up.

NOBODY IS THAT STUPID OR RECKLESS LATE IN A TOURNEY. $1/2 cash NLHE (both live and online) appears to be a weak game full of rookies with the same gambling instincts as those who play $5-50 hands of blackjack. They are fish who play at that level because $3.50 pots offer no thrills. I hate these tables. You and Shawn can have them. I play cash PLOmaha and Limit Omaha 8/b, and I play them for practice against good players who understand these games.

A much better example came from Phil Hellmuth, who brought in a clip from the WSOP 2006 final table, a hand between Jamie Gold and Allan Cunningham. It is on YouTube and it was very instructive.

Cunningham is a very shrewd and observant player, and Jamie Gold a lucky amateur. Phil's example was how Jamie Gold butchered the set trap.

AC has A10 and opens for $900,000 against I believe $100/200k blinds. JG has a 5 to 1 chip lead on AC's 20ish million chips, but flat calls with 88. The flop is ideal, A-8-6 rainbow, and JG has position. There were 3 callers, leaving about $3 million in the pot, and AC, given his relatively weak A for the initial price he laid and his position, makes a conservative bet, $1m. JG just calls but he does so very quickly.

Phil did not comment so much on this play, so I will. Anyone who followed the 2006 WSOP knows that Gold talked too much and revealed way too much, and tended to bet a lot. Gold is very quiet and calls very quickly, actions completely out of character. There is no deliberation. There is no likely draw on the board, only a 7 -9 or 5 -7 straight draw, and while JG can play these hands in raised pots and does with his monster stack, the lack of hesitation in the flat call is inconsistent with the draw. That ace on board in a raised pot will limit any undercard straight draw to the turn. Any good player with the A will smell the draw and shot down the hand if the turn is favourable. Sure, a big stack can call $1m into $5m with 15% to hit the turn, but the quick call is fishy.

You can see that AC smells the fish too. He checks the 2 on the turn, and JG quickly checks back.

Phil was VERY critical of this play, and this might have been the most informative comment we got from him. Phil has seen this play as a tell indicative of a huge trap many times, and he was watching this happen live, so i doubt Phil is bluffing about his read. Phil indicated that the quick check indicates that Gold has already decided to check trap or call trap the turn card, and does not have enough guile in him to disguise it.


[But incidently, I tricked a very good player into PAYING OFF my flush when I had initially raised with A clubs Q, saw a low flop with three clubs, and BET the flop (continuation) GOT TWO CALLERS (like one had a good club) and then CHECKED the club which hit the turn. Then this very good player OVERBET 1500 (potsize) the river giving me only 700 more to go all in, and forcing a pot odds call. I call his bet an overbet because one typically value bets a checked flush, but, as a clever player, he was trying to be misleading. As a cleverer player, I had misdirected my draw by betting the flop and checking the nuts on the turn, to convince another club he was good. Had he bet smaller, I am not sure what my river play would have been, but probably a value raise if I was convinced he was convinced his flush was good.]

Back to Gold and Cunningham.

Cunningham is clearly uncertain about the strength of his hand when the river pairs the 6. The read I put on him here is that he will pay off a value bet, but no more. He bets out a weak $2m bet into a $6m pot.

And JG, who's brain is too actively connected to his mouth, just butchers this opportunity. NOW Gold talks, and he immediately goes all in and prepares to flip his cards on an assumed call. His adrenaline has betrayed him. He just simply lost his cool in this opportunity to knock out the best pro left against him. He says "I knew you didn't have it".

Cunningham folds immediately.

If your goal was to extract 25% of someone's short stack with a huge hand, play this like Jamie. If you want to get ALL OF SOMEONE'S CHIPS AND DOUBLE THROUGH after flopping huge, play like this:

[CAUTION: THE BELOW PORTION OF THIS BLOG ENTRY CONTAINS A GRAPHIC DEPICTION OF THE PHYSICAL CARNAGE OF THE ULTIMATE BAD BEAT. ANYONE WITH THE FLU, ON HEART MEDICATION, OR PREGNANT SHOULD READ AT THEIR OWN PERIL OF VOMIT, HEART ATTACK, MISCARRIAGE, OR GIVING BIRTH TO THE SON OF SATAN. THIS IS A TRAIN WRECK, FOLLOWED BY A CHEMICAL SPILL, FOLLOWED BY CHERNOBYL, AN EARTHQUAKE, AND GODZILLA AND RODAN BUSTING UP YOUR CONDO]

Back to the final table of the $100.00 Wednesday casino game where I "overplayed" my AJ clubs. We are now 7 handed, and our oriental female mark and I have nearly identical stacks of around 40k. Blinds remain 800/1600. I am in the SB.

Little Miss Mark (LMM) is in the cut off, the table is tight so far, and she makes a small raise to 4000. Pretty standard play, and this bet has been enough for the blinds to fold at this tight early final. Play folds to me and I see 77. This is a very good situation to see a flop. 77 is a solid starting hand heads up, my opponent is an open book, and my price is excellent. The BB also thinks so, and makes the pot-odds call (and why not, 2400 into 10000 will make any two cards look good).

The flop is perfect A 7 3 two clubs. I am not remotely concerned with the flush draw, and I have semi-instinctively put LMM on an Ace. While many would bet here small or large, I do not wish to represent the strength representing the most typical call, a decent Ace, because I put my LMM as a very unsophisticated player, and the last thing I want is my mark worried about her kicker.

I play this for what a Phil-Gordon style player will expect: I called to defend my blind, I hate the Ace. I check because it is expected I will check to the raise and the ace. The BB also checks, and LMM makes what would be, if she had the best hand, a good bet, 8000 into the 12000 out there.

Except for one problem. I was anticipating this. She has an Ace, 12000 invested, 20k in the pot, about 30k left, and believes she has what she wants.

I check raise another 10k, putting the put up to 38,000 when she has 30k left. She DOES NOT HESITATE when she reraises and I quickly move in. My reraise was calculated to create an irresistably huge pot against a very simple-minded player who simply did not have the experience or capacity to understand the usual flags of the check-raise.

(see what you can get done without seeing another street which might kill the action, such as another club?).

We are now both all in with me a 98.4% favourite.

That's right. 98.4%. As in LOCKED UP. I have now both doubled up to the chip lead while serving notice to the table that I am truly the POKER MONSTER.

turn is an 8
river....

an 8

RUNNER RUNNER GODDAMN 88. She had 5 outs and needed both of them. an A and an 8, or AA would also do. but I checked the odds out later on the computer.

I AM SICK

LITERALLY SICK.

QUEASY.

DIZZY.

I AM CLOSE TO PUKING.

I KNEW THIS TABLE WAS RIPE FOR THE PICKING AND INSTEAD OF RUNNING OVER THE TABLE I AM GETTING $360.00 FOR PLAYING PERFECT.

SICK SICK SICK

GOOD THING I AM NEITHER FLU-INFECTED, PACE-MAKER-EQUIPPED, OR PREGNANT.

What makes this the ultimate bad beat over when my AAAA got cracked by a royal flush, for example, is not the odds. It is the situation. When my AAAA got cracked, there was a flush made on the turn to my slowplayed set of A's (8 kicker) and I though I had lucked out with the river quads. It was not a critical point in a live tourney, it was online for a $20 buy in in the middle rounds where I could just find the next available game.

What begins as sickness slow turns to anger. Serious anger, made stronger when I did check the odds on the computer. 98.4% to win? That suck out was NOT MERE COINCIDENCE. IT WAS NOT COLLUSION. IT WAS THE HAND OF FATE. THERE IS NO GOD. ONLY THE EVIL HAND OF FATE, AND FATE HAS HATED ME FOR 2 MONTHS AND NOW FATE IS TRYING TO KILL ME.

FATE PAID OFF A WEAK PLAYER WHO DOES NOT HAVE THE SKILLS WITH A BIG STACK TO ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING AT A FINAL TABLE EXCEPT PAYING OFF BETTER PLAYERS AND DENIED ME MY DUE.

I'm joking? No, I am serious. This is my reaction. I was rewarded for brilliant play in a completely safe situation with OUTRAGEOUS MISFORTUNE.

I am in a tilt tank for 24 hours. I am talking to myself. I am shouting in my head. My faith is truly shaken. GOD MUST HATE ME PERSONALLY.

Until it finally hits me... How do you win a big tournament? You can put your chips in with AA all the time, but lets face it, I remember an online game where I had AA or KK seven times in 45 minutes and got action every time and lost 6 out of 7s. You need to put your chips in with at least coinflip odds and you have to win EVERY CRITICAL RACE whether you are forced to play A4,K 10, 33, or 10 10 for your life. THE ONLY WAY TO DO THIS is to tune in to the (a) (b) and (c) of THE ZONE and come to terms with the Ghost in the Probability Machine. Go with your reads and go with your gut. If you slowplay-limped AQ UTG where you normally raise, only to see huge action ahead of you, fold and see QQ vs AA, it's because the GHOST has WHISPERED and you LISTENED. When you announce the Royal Flush draw when QK diamonds is all in preflop against KK AND IT HITS...When your buddy can't help but declare the runner runner flush suckout against you when you had someone killed and trapped all-in on the flop, and YOU KNOW ITS COMING and IT COMES...or call the river card with 100% accuracy (all true events)....you stop having doubt. You begin to have faith. THE ZONE doesn't always tune in, but when it does, you have to play by it. Ignore it at your peril.

My faith was confirmed about 2 weeks later.

I was playing a $150.00 online tournament and was simply surviving with the short stack. I had just survived a K high all in call against A high while pot committed in the BB to a raise to have a meager 7400 in chips with 600/1200 on the way and less than 20 left. Under the gun, I pushed with A10 because I felt I had to. A stack with similar problems called and so did a tiny stack.

I was up against JJ with my A10 (the small stack hand escapes me). I was 30% with 5 to go, but my heart sunk on the flop.

J 10 3. A set to an under-pair.

The turn...an A
The river...an A

I took down a pot worth 19k, good enough for 3rd, and would take out my opponent with the next hand, effectively knocking two players out and bringing the total to 11, guaranteeing a decent situation at a final table with a top prize of about $5400.00, buy crushing top set with runner runner Aces full of 10s.

My opponent....was furious. As if I had done it to him deliberately. He threatened he would come after me if we were at the same table again. I would have said I have never encountered such anger, not the worst Phil Hellmuth suckout rant, not Devilfish's suckout rant when Phil cracked AA with 99, had I not experienced it myself. Critical time. Huge flop. Guaranteed pot I must win. Outrageous misfortune. Fade to black...

I haven't seen my victim since. Did he see the light? Did he tune into the Ghost of Poker Karma? Or has he sworn off poker forever? I somehow think this was meant to be shared...so that others can find peace with the karmic reality of 52 card infinite probability, and tune in to its more complex algorithms....

Do not think that simply reading this blog will tune you in. This is a trial by fire. You need to feel that sickness. Feel that anger. Feel the shock of reality of the order within the chaos of near infinite probabilities...and allow it in.

All of the universe has order within the randomness. Physical and mathematical laws apply to create predictable outcomes from random interactions. Clouds of interstellar dust collapse into stars and galaxies due to the operation of relativity and gravity incredibly complexly but entirely predictably. It only appears a miracle to those who cannot comprehend the math. So too, apparently, 52 random cards applied to 10 or fewer minds trying to outwit the odds and each other with whatever chance offers them as their tools.

Incidently, my suckout success was SLIGHTLY better odds than my victimization. Runner runner QK for a straight was a 0.4% possibility as well. A full 2% to catch after he flopped the overset.

THATS JUST SICK.

I look forward to blogging about the Coast to Coast $1,000.00 bounty and $3,000.00 main event at the River Rock Casino in Vancouver, Canada May 7 and 9. Until then.