Okay, its been 2 hours + (5 hours + live) of grinding, trapping, sucking out, up down all about, in early middle tourney play. Hopefully you're chipped up, but maybe not. At least your still alive.
Compare your stack to the average and to the blinds. Right around 300/600/75 ante, sometimes a little later, the average stack size/blind size ratio begins to shrink down to 15x. Obviously, if you have 9000 chips at this level, every 10 hands, if you do not play, will pull off 1650, or 18% of your remaining stack disappearing from button to SB. The average stack is in serious trouble. If you have 20,000 chips, you have some space, but you're going to feel a drought of cards soon enough. Even at 30,000 chips you only have 25x the blind, and in 20 minutes or so 600/1200 blinds with 150 ante will come into play and swipe 3200 chips, 10%, from your stack.
This is the critical time the average poker player who has been relying on strong post flop play. A lack of tournament experience as the game moves to this level is the fundamental reason why some players can build up big leads heading up to this level, but start paying off as it arrives. Preflop decisions are critical. Where, before you raised or called no more than 10% of your stack holding AK, and can get away from it if the flop isn't right or make the right move if it is, you're going to find yourself easily committed to a very large pot holding two high cards that missed the flop during crisis time.
Chapter I discussed, as a primer to thinking like a Monster, preflop decisions concerning AK. Time to reread it, because you're going to have to live it.
I just played an online $25+2 game with 350 people in it and finished 11th. For the first three hours, I was on a short stack until a couple of big opportuntities came along. Lets talk about those opportunities and the mistakes made by others I was able to exploit.
For the longest time, I could not get off 3000 chips, and the blinds had reached 150/300. It was crisis time for me, and I hold 88 in the SB. A mid-position player with 5500 chips presses the "bet pot" button for a bet of 800. This is a lazy bet that suggests that no thought went into his raise. The next player beside him (with about 4000 chips) just calls, again relatively swiftly and without great apparent thought.
That "just call" tells me that player two wants to see a flop. The pace of his bet suggests no hint of trapping with a large PP. We have reached a stage where a PP of solid showdown power will be raised to a preflop raiser. The weaker ones will protect themselves into a heads up showdown with raiser by reraising. The "let's see a flop" PP in this situation is typically 77 or lower, any other PP will be raised.
Why is that?
During crisis time, the uncreative, Phil Gordon reading, players in the BB and SB will sometimes, without thinking other than ITS WHAT THE BOOK TOLD ME TO DO, reraise with ANY ACE to protect their blinds. Mathematically, ANY ACE is AK down to A2, 12 possible hands A8 is the 7th worst of them. Holding 88 or better, therefore, makes you a dominating favourite, 68% or better (depending if another Ace folded) against A8, and even slightly better against A7 or worse (this is because, if an A hits, you have 2 live 8s and not just one). If you have to make a move and expect a call from ANY ACE, you have excellent double opportunities available with 88 or better. 77 is slightly behind the curve, and is called "walking sticks" for a real good reason.
You are not pushing here to steal a blind now, you are pushing for action.
In my situation, the lack of any apparent thought to the second player calling does not suggest the consideration of price we see with a small PP or the thoughtful decision making of a very large PP.
I put them both on an Ace, and push my chips in. The first player to act reraises all in, second player (who wanted to see a flop) gets out of the way, and I am racing with AJ.
While AJ involves 2 overcards, the folded A from player 2 leaves AJ with 5 outs only, and makes me again a 70% favorite, especially since he induced the fold.
88 is not as good a favorite if two high aces, say AK and AJ, both show down with him. The existence of 3 overcards and a total of 8 outs and some straight or flush possibilities put me at 45% to win 3 handed, still very good odds given that now I am about to triple up, but we are trying to survive, aren't we? I was able to make that move with 88 because I KNEW my raise would overprice player two's hand, and he would fold.
We can't always KNOW where we stand, but keep in mind that we have spent some considerable time at the table and the tendencies of the players should be very apparent by now. I KNEW player 1 was aggressive and loose. I KNEW player two was tighter, and flop-oriented.
Again, although I walked though the decision making process as if it took me time to make a move, my experience in online poker makes a lot of these decisions intuitive. I delayed no more than a second before deciding my gamble was good. Had I gone into the tank for a bit, I would have informed the rest of the table that I had a tough decision to make, and might be counterproductive. The ability to make these calls fast is as important as making these good decisions.
As we saw in Chapter 1, the timing of making a move with any hand in crisis time is very much situation dependent. Any reasonable PP may be enough in your hand to make a re-raise move, depending on the situation.
Here is another example from live play, thje home game with the boys from last night where I won 2 of three. Because we play 6-8 handed and want to get in 3 tourneys a night, we play a very short stacked game, 500 chips, and crisis time comes fairly early if you have been paying off.
Blinds are 20/40, and there are two limpers before, Al, on the button and with 225 left, pushes all in. I am in the SB and see A10 spades, and I am tempted to make the call, but I have to think. In this looser, short table, often a suited or weaker A is limped in, and there are 2 others who want to see a flop. I decide I don't have two live, even though Al's move suggested some weakness, and dump them. Derek, one of the limpers, makes the call and shows A8. Al turns over 88 and the dominating hand doubles through.
Here's another example from a week ago, again the home game at the same 20/40 level. I have 400 chips, not exactly short stacked, and UTG with 10 10 . There are 2 very aggressive players, Brian and Darryl, in middle position and in the BB. As both these players are preflop raisers, I simply limp in 10 10. Brian raises to 125, and Darryl makes the call. Darryl is looser than Brian, and will tend to call with ANY ACE.
There is 250 in the pot, and I am smelling blood. I go all in, expecting either one or the other to make the call. Brian pushes back all in, forcing Darryl to fold, and turns over AQ. My tens hold up, and then I ask Darryl if he folded A8. I confirmed he did.
Lets say you hold 10 10 at seat nine, you're short stacked, you want to push with it, and you want action. Your move with this hand will depend on two things: the action leading up to you, and the size of the stacks and blinds ahead of you.
This "raise and a call" situation we have described is often perfect to make a move. One or both of those players will very likely be holding A-x. Your prior observations of these players should help put them on hands.
The example I gave offered a pot bet to open, and just a call. Neither bet nor call committed either player to the pot. The first bet was consistent with a blind steal, and that, and its seeming lack of real forethought, strongly suggest he would have been happy stealing the blinds. Player 2 liked the price and the size of the pot, and was not making a move himself. These tells offered me the information to call.
If player one, however, makes a more calculated bet, one which appears to target me, as the short stack in the blinds, that would make me suspicious. Since I have 3000 chips, a bet here of 1200-1600 would commit me to the pot if I call, and would be designed to induce either a fold or a push all in. A very good player will size accordingly, and good players leading up to his target will be notified of his intentions, put him on a hand capable of beating the short stack, and get out of his way. This bettor is counting on me to put him on a blind steal given his later position, and automatically throw A-x back.
Lets put ourselves in the shoes of the player raising into that short stack in the blinds for a moment. As you can see, the bet is calculated to get the action desired. It is too much for any other player to play against unless I ran into a monster, and too much temptation for the short stack to find a double up opportunity. The short stack may be both desperate and inexperience, but will almost automatically recognize that this is not a see a flop and decide situation. The better will not be folding due to his commitment. Might as well commit to the showdown.
(Which is why it was easy to put this less than impressive player on a moderate A with his lazy and unconsidered raise)
Now, if I am Player 2, what appears to be an automatic "let's see a flop" decision requires a lot more thought in crisis time. A simple call is a demonstration of weakness which any good player in front capable of recognizing that weakness will exploit. If I have AQ here, I DO NOT JUST CALL IF A PLAYER IN THE BLINDS IS IN TROUBLE AND HIS STACK IS BIG ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FOLD FROM PLAYER 1. I need to put player 1 on a hand here. Is AQ strong enough to reraise this player? If I put him on a steal, absolutely, and usually all in or so big a raise the original raiser is pot committed. I want to scare off action in front of me and force the raiser to decide whether he wants to gamble AJ for all his chips. His lazy bet in an unopened pot in the last third of the table induces no Spidey-sense alarm here.
I have never seen a short stack in the blinds push A-x against a raise and a re-raise. Only very strong hands can come in against my move, and what I am trying to do here is execute a showdown or a fold against the raiser with my AQ, because I have him on an assumption that his A-crap is the best remaining hand and will be able to take a quick pot down.
I can also feel comfortable about my AQ if the original raiser has been stealing relatively often, has an element of desperation himself. If the raiser has demonstrated a lot of patience, or a very tight image or raising with only very high quality, I probably fold AQ here.
Now, if I am back in the SB, short stacked with 88 and a CALCULATED RAISE followed by ALL IN came at me, I have a tough decision, and stack and bet size are crucial:
- Is the all in raise a trivial amount for the original raiser because his stack is huge? If so, I will not expect to be isolated with the raiser with my 88, because if I push all in as well, the original raiser has been given very good odds for a call, and he made the calculated raise in the first place which suggested at least a hand good enough to beat A-x. I probably can't call here, and, even if the blinds are huge, only desperation makes this call with the expectation that I will need a lot of luck to survive.
- If the reraise is HUGE, Player 2 is protecting a good but not killer hand which he thinks is better than the original raiser (who could be as weak as A10 or QK, still hands to race a short stack with), and will beat most of of the cards he would expect me in the short stack to call with. This suggests strongly a hand which will need flop help, an Ace strong enough to dominate most (AK or AQ being the only ones that really qualify here) Now, the prospect that the original raiser likely had an Ace and will likely fold should make me confortable enoughto gamble with 88, unless Player 1 has a huge stack or is a sloppy, thoughtless gambler, both of which we know by now.
- If the reraise is NOT all in, but one designed to build a bigger pot and help isolate the original raiser, such as a minraise, Player 2 has a very big hand, and 88 is in serious trouble.
- If the player raising is very good or very sneaky (like me), his reaction to the raise may involve misdirection to disguise AA or KK by just calling or overbetting, and a "just call" from The Sneak, especially with any pause which suggested some thought, should give you pause to think yourself.
- I am in middle position with 35k and AA. Blinds are 1000/2000/200 ante. An early player has 26k and bets 10k. As I do not wish to scare off all the action, I simply call, and quickly, as if I wish to see a flop. All the others fold, for good reason. With 25k in the pot, including blinds and antes, player 1 has only 16k left and is very pot committed, and I have made a big commitment to my stack as well. They don't know I have a hand, but they know there will be fireworks post flop from both of us.
- Flop is K high and as I expect, Player 1 moves his chips in, and I make the quick call. He shows down 22 and it does not catch up.
Crisis time can last a long time, and all your preflop decisions will be crucial. Making indiscriminate moves with any PP or AK will guarantee you will not go far. You must look ahead and behind and size your moves to protect your hand from all but your desired goal.
I highly suggest, when you have reached crisis time in a relatively small on line tournament, such as 100-200 players, open all the other tables. My server has a mini-table view for this. Watch the kinds of hands showing down from the stacks when the action comes up. Get a feel for the types of hands desperation sends to the showdown, the kinds of hands that make the calls, and their success rates. I play with two wide-screen monitors so I can do this. Not only is it amusing to watch while you sit patiently looking for your big pot opportunities in crisis time, it should give you a real feel for what is happening. Medium and short stacks will be dropping like flies until 1/2 are gone and the average has doubles, and the smart callers will be getting very, very rich.
Will you be gone or get rich?
I will offer more examples and scenarios for crisis time in my next blog.
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