Chapter I...introduction...or is my AK good here?

Hello everybody...I am PokerMonster. You may know me. I might be that guy who suckered all your chips away with my 56 against your KK. Remember that on line tournament?
There are lots of books out there. They talk about EV and Pot Odds, and Outs, and a bunch of crap....much of which is completely irrelevant to tournament play. I've read a few. Dolly Brunson taught me how everyone else plays. Phil Gordon taught me how to make it into the money in a big MTT, but not how to win. Doyle is a great player, but when everyone reads his books, he has to change his game to mix it up. Phil Gordon is a fine poker mind, but his style is so standard, so mathematically based, it only leads to predictable play. Predictable play is what guys like me feed on. Look at Gus Hanson, who hit a wall when everyone figured out he was playing crap and re-raised all his raises. He adjusted to an even more aggressive style and took down Aussie Millions. Compare him with Greg Raimer, with a similar erratic game based mostly on bluffing. He never adjusted, and hasn't won a thing.
I'm no expert. I make mistakes like us all. But I play a lot online and a fair share live. You can pack a lot of experience into 4 tables at a time 4 nights a week. And I have my own ideas as to how to play, which implodes some current standard concepts.
Eventually, I want to run you through scenario after scenario, from the beginning to end of the MTT, but I need to prime you as to how my poker mind thinks. We need to take these standard concepts and turn them on their heads so we can use standard thinking against standard book readers playing standard hands in a standard, predictable manner.

Throughout my blogs I will assume you, the reader, are:

• A poker player!
• who plays online, and wants to play live, serious tournaments.
  
• who prefers tournament play over cash games.
  
• who has read a few books and gets the lingo.
• who can't seem to get further than 30th, and can't figure out how whose big stacks got so big without having AA or KK every 3rd hand.....and how did he beat me for all my chips with J9 of clubs? I had QQ! and caught a set!
  

Let me start with a couple of hands I just played as examples

Its 30 min into a MTT, blinds still cheap, 15/30 of a starting 1500, short stack (500 chips) is to my right, limps from under the gun. I have KK and I;m the next to act.
A big raise here will scare off the rest of the table...I make a raise I expect Shortie to call...105. He does what I expect, and we see a Q-10-8. Shortie checks.
I want his chips.
I bet a measly 105 like I don't have a clue what to do. His response was painfully predictable...he pushes all in...with A7 hearts, no pr, no draw. GG sir, GG.

A few hands later, I have AJ off in middle position and limp in. there is one caller after me, 4 in total in a limped pot. I;ve lost a hand since KK, so I would like to take this down.
flop is K-J-6 rainbow all three including me check to the last in line, who bets 120, the size of the small pot. The two blinds fold to me.

Well, that looked like the standard position bluff to me, but I know the player to the left is not a dummy, so I;m not going to check raise with middle pair...120 seems fair, so I call. Turn is a 7: check-check. Now I know he missed that K, and he respects my play enough not to get caught stealing....free river is an 8...so I value bet....200...and get a thoughtful call. he had 89 and rivered his bluff for 2nd best hand. He had the chips to call, I will rake in my 400 chip profit, tyvm.

Good play in small pots are just as important as showdown hands for big pots. This is early tourney, grinding poker. The main point of these stories is that I won both pots by analyzing my opponent, and working outwards. I will talk about early play later. Lets get to the heart of the action, the middle of the game, and the mother of all trouble hands, AK.

LESSON ONE: RETHINK THOSE OUTS!

Okay, the scenario is this...we've ,made it through the middle of an online MTT, the antes have been in play for a few levels, 75% of the field is gone, but we're nowhere near the money bubble. We have a slightly below average stack, and here were is Big Blind Time again....but wait a minute....AK! sooted!
And look! action! its coming our way! Time to double up!

Or die....

We all hate AK, but we can't resist pushing and gambling in this situation. Conventional logic says....you're in the big blind out of position, you want to raise to take down the pot pre-flop or isolate one opponent...and pray for that A or K to come. Typical advice from Phil Gordon.

Conventional, basic, Phil Gordon poker players who do that without analyzing the action in front of them hit the rails cursing poor Anna Kournakova because they didn;t bother to read the action. What did Anna Kournakova do to you?

Lets take a look at that action.

1. A top 20 chipstack limped in UTG in seat 3....
2. A top 5 chipstack raised 4x the blind in middle position....
3. A bottom 30 player smooth called the raise and has 2/3 of his chips left...
4. your move!

Okay time to think, lets start with what we know about each player.

1. This guy is solid, can afford the raise easily, and its not the kind of rookie who thinks he can see a flop cheap from that position. He knows this is stealing time and played his hand anyway.
2. This guy is one of the chip leaders. He's aggressive as hell, but you've never seen him showdown a crap hand caught stealing....he's mostly earned his chips with with either the best hand preflop or a little luck with a good draw post flop.
3. This guy just got to the table. All you know is that he has about 2/3 of your chips, 1/3 of which he's committed to the pot. He's short stacked enough to be desperate to make a move, but he didn't make one. Why?
   

You can't play your AK here properly without attempting to put each of these guys on a hand. If you think this though, you're in serious trouble with AK here.

1. This player is DANGER! for several reasons.

• You know he isn't holding a weak Ace. which is important. Why not? he's a solid player, and you've never seen him play A7 unless its suited. He plays by the book, so he doesn't play them in a weak position...similarly, unlikely but POSSIBLE he has 89 suited, but its an unlikely position to play this kind of hand. THE BOOK says so, and this guy is very BY THE BOOK.
  
• There are only two likely types of hands he could be holding:
• Hands strong enough to call a modest raise with and see a flop, or trapping hands. in the first category are hands that do not include aces, often K high and suited, like K-10, K-J, K-Q, MAYBE QJ definitely not J10, Quite possibly a PP from JJ on down depending on his tactics with middle pps. I like to raise 88 on up in this position for a reasonable price, primarily as a blind steal, but he may be hoping for a race with a short stack or an affordable flop to catch a set with with a similar holding.
  
• KK or AA (MAYBE QQ, unlikely JJ) to TRAP, expecting a big stack to steal or a small stack to push and pray.
  

Lets keep in mind that we have put Player 1 on a number of hands which either contain our live cards...AA, KK, K-x, or a PP which can catch a set in the K-crap-crap flop we are looking for, and we're out of position...and we still haven't figured out Players 2 or 3....

2. This guy did NOT raise with garbage, because he's G.E.W.D .and he's thought through the player 1 hand analysis before he raised. He's made a bet player 1 may or may not call or raise and player 2 is expecting player 1's reaction to the raise to help player 2 read player 1's hand. He wants the right kind of action for his hand, and he wants position on player one. But he was not expecting the short stack smooth call, because people have been avoiding his raises, and has no clue you have a hand to rumble with too. You have been folding in th BB to him like everyone else.

• JJ is the most obvious hand here. Its typically raised to isolate, but its a trouble PP, often beat. He's probing for a trap or a weakness, but will push JJ against a short stack showing a desperate all-in, as long as Player 1 doesn't spring a trap on him when the betting comes back around. He's good enough to fold JJ if Player 1 springs on him for a reraise, and knows Player 1 well enough to figure Player 1 will go all in to isolate a short stack against him, but will attempt to continue the trap if he is trapping with AA or KK, in which case Player 2 either doesn't go broke with JJ or catches a set on Player 1 in position and takes all or most his chips....
• 10 10 or 9 9 or perhaps 88 may be played the same way here, depending on what you've seen Player 2 do with these hands before. He'd like raise more or just call with smaller PPs depending on whether he wants to steal here or find his own set to trap.
  
• AK, AQ, or AJ are likely alternatives. With AJ, Player 2 is just trying to steal the blinds and doesn't want a flop, but since he's fishing for Player one to expose a PP, he knows he's paying fair value for the one live A (he thinks) which can bust KK, and has bet an amount he can fold.
  
• He MIGHT have raised with KJ or KQ (sooted or off) but only if he's been able to bluff Player 1 off hands in raised pots before when the flop was poor.
• HE COULD HAVE A BIG HAND and has made a bet where only wants action from one player preferrably Player 1, to protect it: QQ, KK, AA,
• He could be full of shit and decided to mix it up, but most likely he has a very playable hand, just not the best of hands.
  

So far we have two players who have you stacked and have position on you, who either have BIG HANDS, medium PPs or one or two of your "live" cards A or K.

3. The enigma of the new Player 3 is not so hard to figure out. IMMEDIATELY the smooth call tells you something important. The fact that he survived to this point tells you he's good enough to get through 2-3 hours of online play, but that call says this: I HAVE A BIG HAND BUT I AM NOT GOING BUST ON THIS HAND. Its too big to lay down. He wants action, He wants a flop, He wants position.

• Since player 3 needs a flop and needs position, he is prepared to fold his hand in the wrong circumstance, but wants more money in the pot in the right one. He was in very late position, he chose to respect Player 2.
• He doesn't have JJ or AK. He goes all in with JJ here. Same with AK. His stack is big enough to force player 2 to fold (maybe), and he (like you only more so) thinks his hand can at least hold up as a coin flip.
• He could reasonably have QQ or 10 10, more likely QQ, because he wants post-flop action.
  
• He could have AQ, but not likely AJ. Remember we have decided this player is not a fool. AJ is only good for a steal, and he didn't steal or act desperate in any way He wants 50/50 odds or better for his commitment to the pot. AJ folds or goes all in here.
• AA or KK may make the smooth call here, given that all-in might push out all the action, and a the minimum reraise to Player 2 is 3x more the blind, putting over 50% of his stack committed to the pot, therefore all of it, which is a tell, and try as he might, this guy wants action with these hands and will be desperate to disguise his hand and hope player 2 hits or bluffs the flop.
• Player 3 may or may not have figured out the potential trap of Player 1. He may have assumed, new to the table, that Player 2 is just typically stealing because he can.
  

We're in trouble here, agreed? How much trouble, and how do we play it?

• We have put the possibility of 2 PPs out there, at least one, one or two hands which contain your outs but you have both of those hands dominated.
• All of these players appear to know what they are doing.
• Since ONE of these players has a PP, you will not be able to credibly bluff a low to middle flop.

Are we then committed to 5 more cards? All you can eat, baby? Do we fold? do we call too and wait for Player one to expose his intentions against a 3 way raised pot?

• Lets start by counting outs. WE DO NOT HAVE 6 LIVE CARDS HERE IN ANY SCENARIO.
• If we have thee PPs out there, it is likely, in order of player, something like 99, JJ, and QQ un against your AK. That sounds like 6 live cards against all three, but it isn't. Everybody else autofolded, so we have to presume each PP has 2 live outs with 32 cards left in the deck. 6 cards capable of crippling your 6 cards. Your six live cards are 50/50, give or take, to hit in the 5 community cards, and so are each of your opponents. You are 25% to win this hand if you face all three opponents all in to the river, and 25% to be the best hand after the flop, but if you catch (30%), there is a 30% chance that you will bet into a set here and be in real trouble. And we haven;t even factored if any of our automuckers folded a crappy A or K. 6 players mucked 12 of 52 cards.
  
• If you have all three players on the PP's I've mentioned, smooth calling is RIGHT OUT. If you are right on your reads, the best option is ALL IN. Player one, the solid one, respects your game and the action in front of him, and 50% to 2/3 of his stack is too much for 99. He will fold. Player 2, with his middling Ace or JJ, is already suspicious of Player 1, didn't like player 3's smooth call, and now you're out there isolating player 3 with your all in. He will put you on AK here immediately, but he can't call unless he thinks he can win a big side pot, and the range of hands player 3 has puts JJ in serious trouble, possibly dominated by QQ or better, likely up against two or three Aces, three K's, 2 lower cards to make player 3 hit a smaller pp set, or 3 Qs if he has AQ. 8 outs to 2 at best for a huge pot. He likes being in the top 5. He expects player 3 to call a raise. He may call to gamble for the top of the leader board, but he's likely to fold because he thinks you walked into the biggest hand preflop and he can walk away cheap and watch you suffer.
• If Player 1 and Player 2 have a middling K and Middling A respectively, player 3 still has, likely the best hand, because he's become less likely to be holding AQ with 2 aces gone. here AQ is your only good scenario because player 3 is only 3 live outs left and you have at least 2 to beat the 3 if he has ANY PP and the other two fold he is coming with you, and you only have 4 outs out of 32 cards and he has 2 outs to crush your 4.
• If any of these players are slowplaying AA or KK you are in serious trouble.

There is no scenario which makes you good here. Your all in move will only isolate the best PP if you got your read right, and two folds to reveal QQ from the short stack very likely threw away 2 more outs, leaving you with 4 or less. Its a desperate gamble and you are not desperate. If you think you can outplay 3 people postflop out of position, go ahead and smooth call and pray for the perfect flop you can take down this big pot with, hopefully A-2-5 or K-K-6 and then play it cautious...any smooth call or raise on your initial moderate bet with the PERFECT LOOKING flop better clue you into additional caution. I might even check or min-bet the perfect flop and see who comes a-betting (and I'd only feel safe with action from Player 2 on an A high flop, as he's the only one we put on an A).

Best move is to fold poor Anna K (she never did play very good or win very much) and wait for a better spot. Here's three examples from play over the last 2 days,

I just had this hand from a different perspective:

• I have 77 in early position, 8000 chips, just under the ave, blinds 400, I bet out 1800.
• middle position, 4000 chips, just calls.
• Big stack in late position raises all in.
• I put big stack on AK immediately, and hope middle has an A as well, and call, knowing middle will come and join. if he has a pp I have a side pot which will render me harmless
  
• middle had 10 10, AK for the big fellow. I caught my 7 for a set and 20k in chips.

How did I put the big man on AK? easy, AA, KK, QQ would min raise or call, putting short stack all in, but forcing me to commit my stack or fold. Big stack wanted to isolate. He had a beatable hand, and needed to protect its weaknesses. I had no idea what the short stack was, but suspected 77 was not so strong once he had called.

Earlier in the same tourney, big stack at the table has 22k, I have 8k for second stack, I have the button (seat 10) and AK diamonds. Blinds are 100/200 This is how the action went:

• seat4, short stack of 1700, raises to 700;
• seat 7, 4400, calls;
• I am suspicious so I just call.
• seat 2 (the BB, 2100) moves all in, followed immediately by seat 4 and seat 7, for all their chips.
• I fold immediately
• seat 2 has KK, seat 4 has 10 10, seat 7 has AA. I was as dead as dead could be and I knew it.

Yesterday: bigger, pricier, tournament with better players: blinds are 200/400, I have been struggling to build a mediocre stack, and just doubled up flipping a coin holding AK last hand. I have 8000 chips for about the average, and get AK again and I am first to act in 4th position. I have been patient at this table and just showed down AK, so I don't expect anyone to put me on a bluff here: here's the action:

• I bet the pot, about 1800;
• seat 6 has me covered at least 2 to 1 and raises to 4500;
• seat 7, a short stac, of about 4000, is covered by that bet and calls.

I know seat 6 knows I have a hand, because I have been patient and I have been tight. I put him on a big hand immediately. I assume the short stack also has a hand: if he has an A, I have at best 5 outs to beat a PP which is at least QQ from 6.
How do I know this? because seat 6 made a bet which committed me to the pot if I call, knowing I was raising in early position and likely not with trash.
I fold, and seat 6 and 7 showdown KK and JJ respectively. I still have 6200 chips, and patiently wait only 2 hands later when I find KK in the BB and two raisers betting and calling 2000 into my 6, who both call my all in bet for a triple up as they both call: AQ from the big stack pushes the smaller, checking, stack out on a garbage 8-high flop to protect his stack from a worse hit and cries me to the river.

The moral to this story? Middle late tourney play is a crucial time, and people are pushing to survive. AK is one of those sweet hands we push with. Be damn sure you have 6 live cards or dominate AQ or below when you push with it, and avoid multiple pots unless you have a good read for at least a legitimate coinflip for a good size sidepot. Above all, think and put those players on hands before gambling all your chips. The ideal place is when you have one desperate short stack raising and the play folds to you, or your the desperate short stack and everyone folded to you from the big stack's (hopefully stealing) raise. See a flop in late position against two raising players or more, and and forget about it with multiple action without position unless you are so big you can afford to lose the biggest caller's stack (and if you're that huge, why are you getting advice from me? You already know when your AK is good, madam.)

Next blog, I will discuss the REAL MATH behind out-counting and MONSTER DRAWS (a horror story)