Chapter III.b MORE MONSTER OUTS

Home from the tourney...I'll discuss it a bit more when I'm fresher. Right now I'd like to pick up where I left on last Sunday's online game.

You may recall I had chipped up to 7500 on hand 7. A very big stack in a small blind game is very dangerous. Soon after I had 10 10 again, raised it and got a cal to see a Q high flop. With all of 150 in the pot, my check leads to a bet back of 100. I have no reason not to call this bet. The bet was consistent with a miss and a probe, and I have 7250 more to play with. With a turn card of a 10 of hearts, the second heart on board, my pot sized bet gets all in action, and I see my set of tens leading AQ hearts to a river. On the 9 hearts can save him, and I avoid the 18% suckout to chip up again. A ferw more bulling pots later, and 12500 in chips, a player I really don't like comes reraising 400 to a small raise in late position and I have KK in the BB. I push back, and soon I have him all in...with AA...but I suck out a K on the river and bust the jerk.

Soon after the hour break, and one small mistake later, I'm moved to a different table with about 13000 chips. I see immediately that, in spite of blinds of 50/100, people are gambling here. AK button and 99 BB rumble for all their chips pre-flop. See a flop boys, no need to get silly!

Its a silly table, and if they want to pay me off more, great.

My first hand is a call of a 350 raise from a short stack with Q10 sooted and in position. Flop is 10 high two spades and the short stack throws the rest of his 2600 into the pile without a thought.. With top pair and smelling desperation, its an easy call, and I see QK spades has called.

The lad sucks out K on the turn. So what.

10 hands later, I call a 500 raise with JJ. from the player who gambled the coin-flip and won with 99. I have position. Flop is 2 hearts-10 spades-J-spades, and he bets into me. As far as I can tell, there is no made hand which can beat what I just flopped, but there is a significant draw on the board, so I raise to protect the set from the draw....and he puts himself all-in immediately. His whole stack of 6000 chips committed against my top set. My call is immediate.

Does this sound familiar?

He has QK of spades.

Now unlike NEW SHERRIFF's draw, The Gretzky Gambler here has apparent overcards to go with his straight flush draw. Given that I previously called with top pr only, GG here must take me for a ABC player, and probably assumed AJ was his opponent.

He got his read wrong, but who drops a Royal Flush draw when you;re the kind of guy who will rumble with 99 for 4500 of your chips with blinds of 100?

Lets look at how strong this draw is if I had been playing AJ. Lets assume my A is a club, and the Royal is live, just for fun.

Given that any A makes his straight, the A is dead for me. The 3 Aces belong to him, as well as any Q, K, 9, or spade. We were the only players who were interested in the pot, so there is no likely weighting of dead Q's, K's, or Aces. This is an amazing 17 outs to beat poor AJ. I;m too tired to do the details, so for simplicity lets just use Phil Gordon's Rule of 2, and give this draw 68% chance to win with only two cards to go. AJ is as much a dog here as it would be against AQ or AK preflop, with 5 chances to catch 3 live J's.

An ABC player playing this flop with AJ and trying to "protect" it from the draw has unwittingly gotten his chips in the middle as a very serious dog.

I am not an ABC player. I called with a VERY STRONG HAND. Here GG;s Q and K outs are DEAD, and I am 39% to see the board pair, while the straight or royal flush takes 4% from my 39%. Since our GG's made draw will be a bust after all 35% of the time, he is only 44% likely to win.

In other words, protecting my top set put me as only aslight favorite in a coin flip for a huge pot.

The bastard caught the 9 on the turn and the board didn't pair. Gah! I later pushed 44 on a 8 high, two spade flop just trying to win a pot after my opponent tanked, then checked. Tanked again, then called. A10 spades.

If I see 2 spades on the flop again I will fold AA.

Seriously.

Just kidding.

As much as QK is a "trouble hand", in that it often finds itself among AK, AQ, AA, QQ, KK, if you can put someone on a low pp or see a flop for a reasonable price, as you can see, its power to make the nut straight while making an A kicker a dead card gives it a lot of potential, like the ability to KILL an apparently made J high hand for the often played AJ from an ABC player who seems to only play A-(10 to K) and pocket pairs.

The popularity of this hand in unraised or lightly raised hands, especially sooted, is also why I don't play 10J. AT ALL.

In spite of Doyle Brunson's comments on 10J in SUPERSYSTEM I, I believe in the limit section, about how 10J's straight drawing potential always produces the NUT STRAIGHT, from J high to 10 low, it is simply too difficult to draw with it in no limit hold'em, and rarely has overcard outs potential. an 8-9-x flop is far better, but x is so likely to be be an overcard like Q or K or A that top pair will bet you out with any sense of a straight draw risk. Similarly, like any suited connector, catching 2 pr on the flop REALLY SUCKS because your 2 pr is someone;s straight draw. If its QK's straight draw, at least the QK are dead to overpair, but you can't slowplay this 2 pr because of the draw, and you might find yourself racing a coinflip for all your chips with your "made hand".

In more ABC fashion, how to you play 10J on a 10 high or J high flop, when 10-(Q, K, A) and J -(Q,K,A) are common hands in small pots with you? Slowly, and be prepared to fold.

The moral to this horror story is that betting to protect my set from the draw in fact invited the draw in for a huge pot, and was therefore the wrong play. Hey, I have a huge hand here. I can slowplay JUST A LITTLE. Smooth call that postflop bet, and hope for that garbage turn card. Watch him check, and go all in at that point to give him deny him pot odds, remembering that he still has 15 outs with a river to go and 34% (because your draws to a full house have become irrelevant at that point) Had I played it that way, the nine hits the turn, excitable GG bets, and I tank and likely fold, protecting my STACK instead of the POT, which I already discussed when I discussed the MISTAKE of THINKING POT ODDS FIRST.

One final story relating to QK, from todays tournament. QK helped me win a critical pot.

Early position has a nice stack, blinds are 150/300 with antes, and makes a raise to 800. The lady to my right is in the cut off and all fold to her, and she raises it to 2000. She is a bit of a gambler and she has a pension for all in bets when the flop is too her liking, as well as a bad habit of flashing cards. She flashed me AQ when someone bet into her with a Q high flop before she went all in quickly. She had been doing this since she had misplayed KK and gave A5 a chance to beat her early, and had been grinding from the short stack in this manner since. She never got cute with a hand when an opportunity to take a pot down presented. She was a good player with a good instinct for trouble, (she folded an A4 with a board of 5-4-3-2 rainbow when I bet and another called....I had 66) but her play was predictable.

I have JJ and quietly call the 2000 bet. Early Man doesn't realize I have called the 2000 and mucks his cards face up, QK off suit, intended to indicate respect for Rita Raiser's raise. This becomes crucial information, as the flop is 7 high, and Rita Raiser is all-in! All-in 7 high? QQ have become unlikely, as do KK. The bet does not suggest AA. None of her actions suggest AA. We ALL overact with AA, and hem and haw, trying to look weak and trap. Rita Raiser is happy to take any medium pot down post flop, and has been projecting strength all along. She quickly BARKED her 2000 raise when she first saw her cards. She quickly BARKED her all in at her first look of the flop.

I have this woman stacked by 5000 chips. AA wants to get paid out of this garbage flop, not take down the pot, and will usually give rope to a smaller pp in position or allow the likely mixed paint or decent A which called the raise a chance to catch up) QQ and KK certainly protect the hand from the inevitable A turn card (we've ALL BEEN BURNED getting tricky with these hands), and maybe I had picked up a sense of relief from her with the mucked overcards....

I had a gut for a medium pocket pair from her bet and from the flash of QK. Her reaction to the flop confirmed it, and my call was very quick.

My JJ had her 99 beat and my 15k pushed up to 27k.

More on putting someone on a hand and today's tourney later, as I continue to discuss early tournament play.

Night all.