Chapter II---The Out Count and Monster Draws

Hey folks, just got in from a live tourney at the casino...I am exhausted...no big hand stories to tell, just 5 hours of grinding until AK was no good on a coin flip with a big stack...it was time to double or go home with 35 left and only an average stack...I went home.

I want to revisit AK for a bit, its the simplest example of counting your live cards, and lets start with the hand I spoke of yesterday, where I dropped to AA, KK, and 10, 10. Let's sit in AA's seat for a bit, because he played his hand very well.

Read back if you need to, but you'll recall he started with a smooth call from the shortest stack's raise. He knows his first opponent is pot committed, so he can just call here, but after I call, and the BB moves in (KK) followed by the original raiser (10 10), why does AA not just call and give me "pot odds" in here? He has a monster after all.

Remember what I said about AK vs 3 smaller pocket pairs. If 10 10 and KK both have two live, and I had, hypothetically, 99, AA has opened himself up to being only a 50% favorite in a hand he doesn't want to lose. He doesn't know only 10 10 has 2 live outs because of my AK. And I have him out-stacked and out-position. I could suck out and bust him and he'd bet right into it. He made his move very quickly, instinct from experience. Instead of getting greedy with AA, he protected if with his all-in, which would commit 1/2 my stack if I call. He wants me out, and the pot is big enough. I told him what I mucked after the showdown. NH.

Inherent in his move is an understanding that I am not a "pot odds" player, I am a tournament player. My stack is in good shape and I aim to keep it that way, in spite of the size of the pot, unless mu odds to win really justify my risk.

Compare this to the hand where I played KK in the BB from last blog. You'll recall that a stack with about 12k bet 2000, was called by a stack with 18k. Why do I move all in here? Because of pot odds. At least one player will see 4000 chips into a 10,000 chip pot as "good odds for his money". He very erroneously thought I was stealing with trash.

The first raiser made a huge mistake. Go all-in or fold here. He mucked, but he must have had AJ or KQ or something like that. Almost any PP will continue in a 8 high flop. Lets assume he had AJ. He ran out the pot in a hurry after figuring out post flop how much trouble he was in.

AJ just called me, creating a 14,000 chip pot, giving AQ 4000 to win 14k, only 2,000 of which came from his stack. He also had implied odds for 6,000 more from AJ.

Neither player figured out the obvious: there was another Ax in the pot and a pocket pair. They never clued in that I raised all-in EXPECTING A CALL. I must have been very strong (and I was). If either AJ or AQ clue in that I have at least QQ and want action, and then clue in to the fact that the other guy has their key suckout card, the A, they fold.

Why should they fold? Aren't they "getting good odds for their money"?

Lets really examine their odds of winning here.

we're 10 handed, so 7 players mucked 14 cards. There are 32 left and 5 to be seen from the 32.
The 14 played and mucked cards of 46 total could include an A about 30% of the time. These two players have 1.7 live cards to beat me with.

1.7/32 cards to go= 5.3% of the cards times 5 cards to come = 27% that ace is coming.

I have the same number of live kings! 27% I spike a set whether that ace comes or not. If that ace comes, it will beat me only 73% of the time. AJ and AQ are each only 19% to beat my KK by catching an A.

We could include the possibility of a JJ or QQ on the board, for the ultimate suckout,but this is very remote.

On top of that, the fact that I hold KK makes a a straight suckout almost impossible. Unless the flop is 8-9-10-J or 7-8-9-10, for a one card straight, they need my 1.7 kings along with 3 live tens (one has surely been mucked) and a J or a Q (1.5 of which have also been mucked). Even if AJ is sooted (AQ was not), that adds only 3% possibility of a flush, less if AQ or my KK share his suit, and we are each 1.5% likely to 4 flush too, so forget about that flush possibility.

For AJ, he has no better than 20% to beat me, and if an A comes up, he's dead to the AQ who will NOT LAY DOWN with an A on board in a pot this big.

AJ thought "pot odds" FIRST, and really screwed up.
AQ thought implied odds for a big pot for him, and failed to consider the 80% possibility that he just created a new chip leader at the table, which he did. I had 20k after that hand, and he was down to 12k.

Implied odds work both ways. This was a terrible result for both players because this is a tournament. In a cash game, if I have another $500 waiting to rebuy, and I'm getting 20% odds to win and only 20% of the pot to play, and the pot is huge, not only am I "pot committed", I'm pretty much resigned to the fact that I screwed this hand up so bad I might as well see if I suck out on the river. That is really what pot odds is all about.

IT IS NOT "CORRECT" AT ALL TO PAY 20% MORE OF A HUGE POT TO CATCH A GUT SHOT STRAIGHT DRAW WHEN YOU NEVER SHOULD HAVE CALLED PRE-FLOP WITH J9 FOR SO MUCH IN THE FIRST PLACE, YOU DONKEY!

POT ODDS IS NEVER AN EXCUSE TO COMPOUND ONE MISTAKE ON TOP OF ANOTHER.

We see this all the time on TV when some final tablist gets caught stealing with Q6 and the BB moves all in for 60% more with AQ, and Mike Sexton says "well, he's getting 2 to 1 odds on his money." His money is dead. Muck and suck it up. If you're going to try to commit a short stack in the BB to the pot, have a hand to beat him with! Try your next steal from a guy who can afford to fold.

This applies in cash games or tournaments, with the important point that there is no rebuy in tournament play and playing from the short stack is no way to win a MTT (but we will talk about short stack play at some point I'm sure)

OKAY

Now I've got you properly counting outs. Lets talk horror stories!

ITS MONSTER DRAW TIME.

It's level 3 in a $300 buy-in tournament with 250 players. I have spent the last hour honing table image. I'm a shark. I'm all-in in a heartbeat. I catch big flops and play you for all your chips. I have the table where I want them...although not the stack just yet...and I am dying to double up early so i can push people around.

Blinds are 50/100 we all started with 10k in chips. I am UTG with 44 and limp in.

The next player raises to 350 and gets 3 callers (remember, this is a deep stacked game) Since I can close out the betting, I call. I am getting an excellent price to see if I catch a set and make serious chips.

HERE COMES THE MONSTER FLOP

A - 10 - 4

SWEET

Its 5 handed, there's 1800 in the pot already, and I know there's one or two aces out there in play.
I do what the pros do with a set. I bet. 1000 chips.
I get one caller. I KNOW he has an A, and probably a good one.
The turn is a 6. Very good card.
There is no straight draw, there is no flush draw (all 4 suits are on the board). It is just my little set of 444, and a big ace.

I value bet, because I want action. The pot is 3800. I bet 1600.
Another smooth call. I am thinking that my sucker suspects something, like maybe he has a kicker problem (AK or even AQ might have reraised, and this guy was a caller not a raiser preflop).

THE RIVER is PERFECT

Ace of Spades

I know that nobody holding a respectable A is going to get away from AAA easily. I smell blood.

I AM ALL IN

" I call"

I HAVE A FULL HOUSE

"So do I"

I look up: he is showing down A-10.

I am shaking. The dealer hands me the 500 chips I have left.

My opponent told me that he suspected I had AK or 44. Indeed 44 makes more sense here...remember what I said with my first example of AK in the BB, the UTG limp in... a big PP trap or a small PP willing to call a reasonable raise and catch that 3rd card. There are people who trap with AK in early position....see story 2

HE HAD ME ON 44! HE KNEW HE WAS BEAT!

"I was trying to keep this as cheap as possible and catch my draw".

!!!!!!!!

Lets count this fellow's outs shall we?

We are again 10 handed. We had 1/2 of the field looking for a flop in a raised pot. Odds are very very good an ace was folded post flop when I bet, probably a small suited one looking for a flush draw, not an A-high flop with a big bet coming at him from UTG. That river was the last A in the deck, almost guaranteed.

We have two 10s in play in my opponent's hand and the flop and turn. 24 cards in the deck with one card to go, and 20 cards in the muck (remember the 4 burn cards). Odds are even that a 10 is in the muck too.

THIS GUY HAD 2 live cards with one card to go. He had 8% to win on that river.

HOWEVER

He outplayed me. Why? He put me on my hand, and I assumed he had AJ or AQ. I never clued in that he had a much bigger piece of the flop, and should have. He does not re-raise me because he knew he was in trouble

Why should I have figured this out?

Because most people who think their ace is good in an ace high flop will reraise, and take the pot down on the flop. By just calling, they give up a free turn card, and top pair rarely will improve. There was very little draw on the board, a gut shot at most between the A and the 10, but a good player playing AK or AQ with position will likely figure I limped in with a weaker ace and I am betting to see where I stand. I have seen plenty of people slow play AK and give A6 two pair on the turn card and bust out. This is a $300 game, not a $5 game. These are all experienced players. That standard mentality with AK to raise big with position and the "right" flop is exactly why the UTG should bet here. All the books say so and I agree. Try it yourself when you call a raise with a small PP UTG and catch your set, ESPECIALLY IF YOU CAN PUT YOUR OPPONENT ON THE OVER PAIR IN THE HOLE! or, in this case, with 5 in the pot, the A.

I should have clued in that my opponent had more than top pair with a good looking kicker with the call on the flop, but I was loving my hand too much and not properly putting my man on his hand. Neither of us were pot committed until I put 7000 more in the pot on the river. I could have checked the river, and let him bet it out. Maybe I would have smelled it.

Today I saw the exact same hands on the exact same flop put their chips in the middle early. A-10 didn't catch his 2 outer.

I learned from this. Here is a monster draw story where I wound up the hero, not the goat.

We are on HAND 7 of a $200.00 on line tourney with 1000 players. We all have 2500 chips and blinds are 5/10. I am in 7th position and have 10 10.

UTG "raises" by pressing the BET POT button. The result is a bet of 35. 5th position just calls. I decide I'm not going to overplay 10 10 on hand 7 in this huge game with a $46,000 potential top prize. I just call too. So does a player in late position. We now have 180 chips in the pot.

FLOP IS K - 10 -2 rainbow (no flush draw) I AM VERY PLEASED

UTG checks, and 5th position presses the BET POT button. I call his 180 bet, so does everybody else. I AM MORE PLEASED.

TURN CARD IS THE KING OF SPADES.

I am loving this, but I think, too. There is one card to go, I have a full house. Can someone have a better full house? K10 can, of course, but I have 10 10. How likely is it that K10 is also in this pot? Not very. I think AK is out there, not K10.

UTG checks. 5th position decides to make a move in this 700 chip pot, he bets 1/2 of it, 350. I decide its time to make a move, not a big one, I'm trying to pull chips into the pot. I minraise to 700, and late position folds to this raise and reraise.

UTG GOES ALL IN!
5TH MAN CALLS!

I remember my burn from the casino, but I also think no one has K10. I never stop to think about K2. Why would K2 be in this pot? Again, like the casino, this is a not a table of donkeys. This is a $200 buy in, and all the players either paid to play or, like me won a $20 satellite. K2 is not in play.
I am satisfied I have the best full house. I know AK is out there, and UTG has it. I haven't clued into 5th man, but I don't care. I have 10 10 10 KK and I am sure it's best.

I am dead right. UTG shows down AK
5th man shows down......22.

The river does not produce an A, K or 2 (5 possible river cards which could beat me).

Its hand 8 and I have 7500 chips and my name on the tourney scroll as the chip leader.

UTG made a terrible mistake preflop by betting 35. AK needs real protection early in a tourney and 35 of 2500 is 1.4% of anyone's stack...everyone's dog's breakfast will come in that cheap. Had he made a real bet, say 150, I still call and I take his chips, mind you. But this guy thought HE was the trapper! 22 thought he was best full house, and rightly figured someone had that K (probably me), but 22 never gave me raise a second thought. I am the only one who figured out my opponents hands in order to get the best of it.
I didn't need to concern myself with position 5 because the possibility of K10 or K2 in this hand with 7 of these cards already accounted for was extremely remote. In fact, when you think about it, 22 was in fact the most likely hand 5th position could have had.
When I re-raised to 700 I knew I would get more than called, because I knew AK was in love with his hand. He failed to think through the hands that might be out there. Maybe someone had A10 ot JJ and figured the KK was meaningless, but a raise and a reraise just moved his way... did he think I had KQ? He didn't think about anything but how big the pot was getting.


We will get back to his very same tourney a little later. It is not all rosy. I want to talk about outs and monster draws first with great story from the casino.

This is the $100 Wednesday tournament, usually about 100 players. We are on level 6, 150/300, about 90 min in and I've just been moved from a tight table where I had some table cred, to a table dominated by 2 huge stacks. We start with 2500 and the chip leader I left at the other table may have had 4500. Here these 2 stacks have 10k each. This is a gambling table, and my 3000 chips make me a short stack to push around. I am in trouble here, and it gets worse.

This story is not about me. Its about the OTHER NEW GUY.

5 hands after I sit down, he comes in to my left. I look at his tray. He has about 8k in chips himself. The first hand he plays, he is UTG and comes in raising, 1100. NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN. I want to get out of town.
The old sheriff, biggest stack of the two, will have none of it. He calls without hesitation.

FLOP COMES DOWN

10-clubs, 7-clubs, K-spades (here suits will be very important)

NEW SHERIFF checks. OLD SHERIFF bets, 1400. A smallish bet in this 2500 pot. A value bet in my opinion, an invitation to more action.
NEW SHERIFF is IMMEDIATELY ALL IN
OLD SHERIFF IMMEDIATELY CALLS

"You got me, " says NEW SHERIFF, "I'm a on a draw".

They turn over their cards. I stand up and exclaim "THATS ONE HELL OF A DRAW"!

NEW SHERIFF has 8 clubs, 9 clubs. a STRAIGHT FLUSH DRAW
OLD SHERIFF has hit this flop huge, he has K-10!

out-counting time again.

Phil Gordon will tell you, with 4 to the flush or 4 to the straight, you have 9 more clubs to make that flush. There are four sixes and 4 Jacks to make that straight, two of which are clubs, and in this case, make an unbeatable straight flush. 15 outs. to beat 2 pr, but 13 of those outs can be beat again if a K or 10 hit that board (4 outs)

We are 10 handed. 17 cards in the muck, 8 on the table, 27 in the dealer's hand, two of which will be burned: 19 cards dead, 25 live. 57% of those 15 outs, or 8.5 cards, are likely still alive. 2.3 of the Old Sherriff's two killer cards are live too, and chances are good one of those full house busting straight flush outs is already in the muck.

This is still a MONSTER DRAW. NEW SHERRIFF has 34% of the cards in play to draw from. 4% of that is his lone stone cold boat buster. OLD SHERRIFF has only 9% of the deck to beat that draw if it comes.

The math gets real complicated here, but basically NEW is 68% likely to catch his straight or flush, including 8% to straight flush, and OLD has 18% to beat that, unless a boat is dead. The result is NEW is about 58% to win this hand.. Does he?

TURN CARD IS

6 clubs

RIVER IS

K clubs

NEW needed to catch that 8% draw or the river runs full of his blood.

OLD has 2000 chips, NEW has 16000.

OLD SHERRIFF #2 panics a few hands later, when NEW comes raising UTG again, and goes over the top all in. NEW calls immediately with 99, OLD #2 AK. Flop is 9-3-3 and OLD #2 walks. We are alone and in the cold with the NEW MONSTER stack of 26000 chips to the table average of 3000. OLD #1 is crying. I go home soon after, walking into NEW MONSTER'S limped-in UTG AK hoping to steal with trash from the blinds. I wanted to go home.

MORE MONSTER OUTS HORROR STORIES NEXT BLOG