V.3 Playing back from steals, Monsters in the blinds.

Blinds blinds blinds. Why the hell am I spending SO MUCH TIME on what to do with the big and small blinds?

1. You already know how to play a hand you want to play and how to play in position.
2. As the levels go up, and the average stack goes down, your ability to win grinding pots and avoid being treated as an easy mark for blind stealing will keep you chipped up and your stack stable until a double up opportunity emerges.

You are already aware of the tell-tale blind stealing opportunities. When you are sitting there in the BB, and the first 5 to act all fold, the next 3 positions almost never limp in. They may or may not have playable hands, but a cheap flop is no longer the goal. The blinds and antes stolen alone can improve an average stack by 10%, offer a short stack 10 more hands to survive, and allow the big stacks to maintain their iron grip on the table. Even the big stack is waiting for a small stack to feed on, and doesn't like his stack shrinking or a rival emerging while waiting for a hand.

By being protective early in these rounds, you set up yourself as a difficult person to steal from. I am still assuming your stack is average: the big stacks and short stacks are actually safer from the blind thief:

• The big stack is happy to call and play back, and has the economic power to put the raiser all in preflop or on the flop, and the stealer does not want to play a big pot.
• Any short stack who has dropped to 10x the blinds or less sees a huge investment in that blind, and is often getting tired of sitting and waiting and being pushed around, and any reasonable hand may be enough to gamble.

Some late position raises that open the pot may represent genuine raising hands, as no player with a playable hand wants to give the blinds a cheap look with 2 random cards he can't read.

Here's how to spot a genuine hand being raised and not a steal:

• The player has been actively raising, calling and playing post flop from various positions, and has demonstrated routinely that his cards have been genuinely playable when shown, and has not routinely made a raise when stealing opportunities have arisen, especially if he has been winning pots post-flop: The rushing player is enjoying his game and is playing well post flop. He doesn't need to steal to win a pot.
  
• The size of the raising bet is not difficult for the remaining players to call (3x or 4x the blind, for example), does not commit a large percentage of his chips to the stack, or commit any blind player to the pot. Any raise into a truly desperate short stack is likely one that is considerably better than the average 2 random cards and represents a genuine opportunity to knock out the short stack, although sometimes a lazy, inattentive, or desperate player may mistakenly attempt a steal against a pot committed short stack.
• You share the blind with a player with a propensity for frequently playing back against steals with uncallable bets (in which case he is protecting his and your blind against theft).
• The player has demonstrated considerable patience, has not played in some time, and has consistently shown down hands with preflop strengths proportional to the preflop raises he has made (a tight, by the book player).
• In a live tourney, a good look at the player while you reach for chips may offer a tell of whether he is begging for a call or a fold.
• Very good players who have demonstrated a lot of variety of play may wish to disguise a very big hand as a blind steal, particularly if a person in the blinds has been aggressively defending.

If you are of the opinion that the raiser is just stealing, you have many options dependent on the quality of your cards and the state of the raiser:

• I do not advocate the "play back with any Ace" strategy, especially if the thief is pot-committed if you call or raise. A5 is simply not a very strong showdown hand (60%) when 2 live cards in between are in the race with you, and that steal may have been with any Ace -x combination as well. You cannot predict with any accuracy whether you have been outkicked, and you will be racing your kicker. While 2 weak aces often will split the pot, A8 is often strong enough that the 8 will play against the average 5 cards. In addition, a reputation as a "loose caller" will be noted by your opponents, with a short stack holding AQ feeling he has good odds to get action.
• You are safer to rebluff the thief with an uncallable bet when the raiser clearly can afford to fold, especially if the player has shown a tendency to back down to a reraise (although, I will do this a few times to encourage re-raising for when I have an opportunity to disguise a very big hand as a steal.)
• If stealing has been frequent, and there has been very little playing back, putting a thief all in will often be so surprising he has to put you on a hand.
• I will discuss true monsters in the blinds a bit later in the blog, but AK and AQ, in my opinion, unlike my first blog's discussion, have tremendous strength in the blinds against thieves. Because the thief is the only other player to act, you can feel confident about their dominance to a weaker A or K or Q high, and true coin flip value against a pocket pair, keeping in mind that 88 and above a routinely raised at this point in the game, and only KK and AA tend to be played more craftily. The size of the raise will tend to express the vulnerability of the hand of the move-making player, bluffing or not. I frequently raise all in with these hands against late raisers.
• If you have a highly playable hand, including a medium pocket pair, re-raising may not be the best defence. Calling, then betting on a a flop you have hit well or at least represent (like J or Q high) (even 2nd pair, if top card is uninspiring) or on a weak flop may represent 10 10, JJ, or QQ which has the raiser beat. This is effective only when the raiser is not pot-committed.
• Hands with are generally considered to be strong in a heads up situation have calling potential to play the flop in the raised pot. I consider K-x or Q-x suited to be very playable, as long as the kicker is 8 or so high. Pairing that kicker in flop with kicker high or not very much better high can often justify a bet indicating a made hand.
• All the hands which I have described as hands capable of being raised with "2 live value", especially mixed paint, or very good "see a flop" hands when the raiser is not pot committed, and gambling hands when you can afford to gamble the raiser's stack in a showdown. The medium pocket pairs are easier re-raised than called with and played from the flop. The small PPs are, well, a very situation-specific gut check to call, as you offer the opponent at least 50% and maybe better to win most of the time. The former are hands which will usually be 40-60% to win most short stack stealing hands, but the small PPs are so likely to be up against a better PP that I only give them 25% odds to showdown with the thief's usual range of desperation hands. Obviously a very cheap call is a good one, but I wouldn't commit a third of my stack on 44 being good unless you need to gamble yourself and you really think he has A2.
  
• Don't play back every time, and don't call every raise to protect your blind, as some people do. These predictable people become targets for raisers with real hands, not for thieves. A healthy fold every once in a while helps the table respect the honesty of your raises. The re-steal often returns a healthy pot, but if it is over-used, you pay off disastrously eventually. Every decision to play back should be a genuine assessment of the situation facing your blind, and not just an automatic reflex.
• Demonstrating a wild streak at this time in the game, a few strategically placed pre-flop or post flop all-in bets, for example, all in safe situations, may frighten off steals and promote small raises into your blinds instead, which become opportunities to play some unusual hands and win some post-flop pots.
• Just because you have the right kind of hand, the apparent right situation, and the risk is reasonable does not justify a call if your gut is giving off alarm bells. Any hint of strength or deliberate calculation on the part of the raiser should cue to you move with caution, and might justify a fold or a call to see if the flop offers you the green light. This is especially so in a live game where you can see your opponent's reaction to the flop and your reach for your chips.
  

MONSTER IN THE BLIND!

Oh how we love to see AA and KK (QQ will do very nicely too) sitting and waiting for us in the BB or SB. Here, being active previously in the blinds will pay off. Obviously, against a raiser, you want to just call, and feign some thought and concern, and, although it is a gamble, slow play and trap with the big pair. By calling a raise, you have created a very desirable pot, and faking some disappointment in the flop, including a check or weak bet, will usually prompt the raiser to make an attempt to take the pot down. Depending on the size of the bet and the flavour of the flop, you can represent a flush draw and check-call, check-raise a pot committed player, or other trapping techniques. I particularly like the weak bet and raise call which represents a draw, check on a "bad" turn card, and check raise the bet back. If it goes check-check, a value bet on the river might be called or raised. If the player has a big enough stack that a big river bet would be uncallable without a very good hand, that player might make a critical huge bluff on the river. If you smell fear or desperation, feigning weakness may well trigger a big bet.

Obviously, you should make the effort to put your opponent on a hand, and I do not advocate slow-play trapping with flop with a lot of draw potential, especially if your opponent takes an interest in the flop. Take the lead and protect your hand. Don't risk your whole stack getting greedy, and let your AA get busted.

If there are several limpers into the pot, and you have a big PP in the blinds, it is not safe to slow play. Unfortunately, the raise designed to produce one caller coming out of the blinds looks like an attempt to protect a big BB. It will be unlikely you will get action, but AA is safe from being busted.... A bigger raise also risks folds, but a "suspiciously" big raise might induce the small PP limper to gamble what he thinks is a coinflip opportunity to double up. This happens A LOT, because the smaller PP is now assuming that a big A-x is raising to take the pot down, and is putting other limpers or callers on similar holdings.

You may feel safe to slow play a pot with only one limper and the the other blind involved, but every move should be careful. Any hint of a fellow blind player hitting a BB special should cue you to slow down to a crawl. He will be tempted to slow-play it to get more action, and might let you catch up. I have offered a number of prior examples where I have played a hand slowly to keep the pot small and called a value bet on the river to manage my risk with a draw on the board capable of beating my hand. By the river, the made flush or straight will want to make a bet you will call, and a bluffer will not want to get his feet too wet either.

It is not usually profitable to slow play AA if you and the other blind are the only two players in the pot. At best, you will likely win the blinds and antes only, if his hand is truly awful, and at worst, you invite a BB special to bust your AA (of which I have spoken at length in the last blog). It is almost better to represent a steal here, as the other blind with a genuine hand may be willing to call. This will produce the dominating showdown you want with AA or KK. BB battles can involve very big pots with very marginal holdings....and this happens a lot too.

Alas, I have one more blog in me on blinds...the BATTLE OF THE BLINDS (Horrors and Heroes). At some time I will get out of middle-tourney play....but there is so much juicy info to blog on and on and on about.....